CoChat
Sign Up
Cited by 10Global Public Health Policies and EpidemiologySmoking Behavior and CessationPublic Health Policies and Education

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 49 of the 49 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 32 of the 110 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

Seven-year tobacco tax plan in Ukraine: a case study of the actors, tactics and factors motivating policy passage

Open access
Weiger, Caitlin, Hoe, Connie, Cohen, Joanna E·2022·BMJ Open
DOI 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049833PMC PMC8845221
Open this paper in CoChat — free accountOpen PDF

Abstract

Objective: In December 2017, the Ukrainian Rada passed legislation that would increase tobacco taxes for the next 7 years to meet requirements of the European Union-Ukraine Association Agreement (EU-UAA). We analysed factors motivating passage of Ukraine’s 7-year tobacco tax plan as well as tactics used by both opponents and proponents to describe how the plan was passed. Design: A case study approach was used. Data were gathered from semistructured interviews (n=12) and document review (n=24) and analysed using inductive and deductive coding. Results: The European Union-Ukraine Association Agreement, a significant budget deficit and a history of tobacco tax success were all contextual factors contributing to policy passage. Proponents of high tobacco taxes capitalised on this opportunity, using media advocacy, generating scientific evidence and collaborating effectively across multiple sectors to support the passage of the plan. Opponents used media advocacy and lobbied to water down several features of the plan, resulting in smaller increases that might not meet EU-UAA requirements. Conclusion: Industry interference via lobbying continues to hamper passage of high tobacco taxes and should be addressed via legislation that aligns with Article 5.3 of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Proponents should look for windows of opportunity caused by external events, create a multisectoral coalition, including tax experts and use media advocacy to support tax increases. Further work should continue to document what contextual factors support tobacco control policy change.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Ukraine’s 2017 seven-year tobacco tax plan passed because proponents used media advocacy, scientific evidence, and multisectoral collaboration to exploit windows created by the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, a budget deficit, and past tax-increase success. Tobacco industry opponents still used media advocacy and lobbying to dilute the plan, making it unlikely to meet EU requirements by 2025.

Key findings

  • Contextual factors motivating passage were the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, a significant budget deficit, and prior tobacco tax success: Ukraine increased tobacco excise taxes 20-fold between 2008 and 2017, raised the state budget by 36.5 billion UAH, and reduced smoking prevalence by 20% between 2010 and 2017.
  • The plan passed in December 2017 and raised the specific excise tax by nearly 30% in 2018, then by 20% annually from 2019 to 2025, aiming for the EU-UAA minimum of €90 per 1000 cigarettes.
  • Proponents—including CSOs, the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Health, World Bank, WHO, and academics—used media advocacy, country-specific scientific evidence, and collaboration; opponents—including Philip Morris, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco, Imperial Tobacco, and Ukrtyutyun—used media advocacy and lobbying.
  • Opponent lobbying helped dilute the plan: the tax was administered in local currency rather than euros, and a mandatory annual inflation adjustment was dropped after an “emergency meeting” of the Tax Committee, making it unlikely prices would reach directive requirements by 2025.

Methods

  • Case study design using 12 semistructured key informant interviews conducted in February 2019 in Kiev, Ukraine, and 24 purposively sampled documents collected between January 2019 and April 2020.
  • Key informants were purposively sampled via document review, advocacy organisation recommendations, and snowball sampling; interviewees included academics, international NGOs, multilateral organisations, and local NGOs.
  • Data were analysed with inductive and deductive coding using an existing codebook plus open coding; CW and CH independently coded one interview, reconciled discrepancies, then coded remaining interviews, and documents were coded with the resulting codebook.

Limitations

  • Stated: opponents declined (n=1) or failed to respond to interview requests (n=7), and government employees were unwilling to be interviewed, so some closed-door lobbying findings are presented as speculation.
  • Stated: saturation was not reached through interviews alone, though document review was used to address this; many documents were in Ukrainian and translated with Google Translate, risking translation inaccuracies.
  • Stated: the study focuses on one public health issue in one country, so findings may not generalise; it also did not capture recent attempts by opponents to reduce the annual tax increase. Evident from the text: the analysis relies heavily on proponent perspectives, which may underrepresent opponent and government views.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049833

Cites

49 of 49 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

32 of 110 cited sources checked · 9 supported · 1 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    Existing studies on how tobacco control policy is passed at the national level focus more on tactics used by opponents rather than proponents.

    “Moreover, existing studies on how tobacco control policy is passed at the national level are focused more on tactics used by opponents (eg, lobbying, litigation, protests and other tactics to delay or subvert policy passage) rather than proponents,25–32 with few exceptions.33–36”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim7 of 10 sources checked
    • cites [25] Uang, 2018, Tobacco control law implementation in a middle-income country: transnational tobacco control network overcoming tobacco industry opposition in Colombia, Glob Public Health source

      The Introduction describes tobacco-industry lobbying and litigation, and the Discussion documents opposition tactics in Colombia. But this paper studies implementation after a national law was passed and also examines advocates’ responses; it does not establish that studies of national policy passage focus more on opponents than proponents. Our copy provides no page numbers for these passages. (LLM, conf=0.82)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [26] source

      The Abstract says the paper examines forces that both supported and opposed strong tobacco-control measures, rather than focusing on opponents’ tactics. The sections ‘Drafting the tobacco control legislation’ and ‘Lessons of the past’ discuss advocates’ strategies for securing legislation. This paper therefore does not fit the cited characterization of studies focused more on opponents than proponents; it does not, however, assess the balance of the wider literature. (LLM, conf=0.78)

      Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [27] MacKenzie, 2017, 'A preferred consultant and partner to the Royal Government, NGOs, and the community': British American Tobacco's access to policy-makers in Cambodia, Glob Public Health source
    • cites [28] Smith, 2013, What is known about tobacco industry efforts to influence tobacco Tax? A systematic review of empirical studies, Tob Control source

      The section on industry tactics documents studies of opponents’ lobbying, legal challenges and other efforts to block tobacco tax increases. But the review is limited to tobacco taxation, does not compare the literature on opponents with that on proponents, and says most studies of tax increases examined US state-level initiatives—not national-level tobacco control policymaking generally (Results; The success of tobacco industry efforts to keep tobacco taxes low and prevent earmarking; pages unavailable). (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [29] source
    • cites [30] source
    • cites [31] Szilágyi, 2003, Tobacco industry efforts to keep cigarettes affordable: a case study from Hungary, Cent Eur J Public Health
    • cites [32] Barnsley, 2017, Political barriers to evidence-based tobacco control policy: Cronyism and cognitive dissonance, a Tasmanian case study, evid policy source
    • cites [33] Crosbie, 2016, Costa Rica’s implementation of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control: Overcoming decades of industry dominance, Salud Pública de México source

      The Results section on the passage of Law 9028 describes opponents’ lobbying and efforts to delay or weaken national tobacco-control legislation. But the Results also devote substantial attention to advocates’ campaigns, and this paper does not assess whether existing studies generally focus more on opponents than proponents. Our copy provides no page numbers for these passages. (LLM, conf=0.79)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [34] Rosser, 2015, Contesting Tobacco-Control policy in Indonesia, Crit Asian Stud source
  • Premisecitation

    Few studies have explored how tobacco control policy change comes about, particularly in LMICs and on tobacco tax policy.

    “Unfortunately, few studies have explored how tobacco control policy change comes about, particularly in the context of low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) and on the topic of tobacco tax policy.20–24”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 5 sources checked
    • cites [20] source

      Table 3 in “Policies and issues examined” identifies only five empirical analyses of tobacco policy change in LMICs from 1994–2007, supporting the claim that few studies examined that topic. The paper does not establish a separate finding about tobacco tax policy, so that more specific part is not supported by this source. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [21] Chantornvong S , Collin J , Dodgson R . Political economy of tobacco control in low-income and middle-income countries: lessons from Thailand and Zimbabwe. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 2000;78.
    • cites [22] Ayuningtyas, 2019, Conflict and resolution on politics of tobacco control in Indonesia, Pertanika J Soc Sci & Hum
    • cites [23] Desapriya, 2003, Political economy of tobacco control policy on public health in Japan, Nihon Arukoru Yakubutsu Igakkai Zasshi
    • cites [24] Udokanma, 2021, A health policy analysis of the implementation of the National tobacco control act in Nigeria, Health Policy Plan source

      The Methods section reports a paucity of documents and peer-reviewed articles on tobacco control policy in Nigeria, and describes examining how that policy developed. It does not establish that such studies are scarce across LMICs or specifically on how tobacco tax policy changes. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premisecitation

    Despite tax increases, Ukraine ranks among the bottom five countries for cigarette prices in Europe.

    “Despite these increases, Ukraine ranks among the bottom five countries for cigarette prices in Europe.13–16”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 4 sources checked
    • cites [13] source
    • cites [14] source

      The Tobacco control passage discusses substantial excise-tax increases in the Baltic states, not Ukraine. Searches for Ukraine’s cigarette prices and a European price ranking found no passage stating that Ukraine was among the five cheapest countries, despite tax increases. (LLM, conf=0.73)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [15] Krasovsky, 2010, "The lobbying strategy is to keep excise as low as possible" - tobacco industry excise taxation policy in Ukraine, Tob Induc Dis source

      The Results sections on 1995–1998 and 2008 report excise-tax increases, and the 2008 section says Ukrainian cigarette prices were below Russia’s. Our copy does not establish that Ukraine ranked among Europe’s five lowest-priced countries. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [16] World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe . Raise taxes on tobacco. World Health Organization, 2020. Available: https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/disease-prevention/tobacco/publications/2020/factsheets-on-who-fctc-implementation-through-mpower-in-the-who-european-region-2020/raise-taxes-on-tobacco [Accessed 10 Oct 2021].

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Interpretationcitation

    This acceptability is crucial for proponent access to MoF, especially in cases where CSOs are not perceived as providing material benefit to the MoF, which has been noted as a common barrier.

    “This acceptability is crucial for proponent access to MoF, especially in cases where CSOs are not perceived as providing material benefit to the MoF, which has been noted as a common barrier.19”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
  • Premisecitation

    The importance of the EU-UAA as a motivating factor driving policy adoption fits within the literature highlighting how the FCTC and Master Settlement Agreement have also motivated tobacco policy.

    “The importance of the EU-UAA as a motivating factor driving policy adoption fits within the literature highlighting how the FCTC and Master Settlement Agreement have also motivated tobacco policy.24 66 67”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [24] Udokanma, 2021, A health policy analysis of the implementation of the National tobacco control act in Nigeria, Health Policy Plan source
    • cites [66] Wood, 2006, Tobacco’s Tipping Point: The Master Settlement Agreement as a Focusing Event, Policy Stud J source
    • cites [67] source
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 48
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 41

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingcitation

    Ukraine increased tobacco excise taxes by 20 fold between 2008 and 2017, increasing the state budget by 36.5 billion UAH and reducing smoking prevalence by 20% between 2010 and 2017.

    “Ukraine had increased tobacco excise taxes by 20 fold between 2008 and 2017, increasing the state budget by 36.5 billion UAH and reducing smoking prevalence by 20% between 2010 and 2017 (IDI2 IDI6 IDI12).42–48”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 7 sources checked
    • cites [42] Timtchenko I . Public health advocates score big tobacco tax win., 2018. Kyiv post. Available: https://www.kyivpost.com/business/public-health-advocates-score-big-tobacco-tax-win.html[Accessed 6 July 2020].
    • cites [43] Raising excise taxes on tobacco is an effective tool for filling the budget and maintaining health. Ukrainian center for tobacco control, 2017. Available: http://tobaccocontrol.org.ua/news/pidvishchiennia-aktsiziv-na-tiutiun-diievii-instrumient-napovniennia-biudzhietu-ta-zbieriezhiennia-zdorov-ia-1?fbclid=IwAR10vOiVrzsQBHvA7Ycr_1DYmoY9oyoNd2dZftHOOrVb2LOb5vZPv7yjUiY [Accessed 24 Jun 2020].
    • cites [44] Deputies Propose to raise taxes on cigarettes in 2018. Ukrainian center for tobacco control, 2017. Available: http://tobaccocontrol.org.ua/news/dieputati-proponuiut-pidvishchiti-podatki-na-sigharieti-u-2018-rotsi [Accessed 24 Jun 2020].
    • cites [45] Analysis of the draft law №7110-1 “On Amendments to the Tax Code of Ukraine (on the approximation of excise tax rates on tobacco products to the minimum level in force in the EU).” Ukrainian Center for Tobacco Control, 2017. Available: http://tobaccocontrol.org.ua/news/analiz-zakonoproiektu-7110-1-pro-vniesiennia-zmin-do-podatkovogho-kodieksu-ukrayini-shchodo-nablizhiennia-stavok-aktsiznogho-podatku-na-tiutiunovi-virobi-do-minimal-nogho-rivnia-diiuchogho-v-ies [Accessed 24 Jun 2020].
    • cites [46] The World Bank . Tobacco taxes in Ukraine: multiple gains for Society, 2017 The World Bank. Available: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2017/04/26/video-tobacco-tax-in-ukraine[Accessed 11 Nov 2019].
    • cites [47] LIFE Advocacy Center . Story of success: tobacco taxation in Ukraine, 2018. Available: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8o_mBzudQE[Accessed 11 Nov 2019].
    • cites [48] Olefir, 2018, Tobacco control policies in Ukraine: history, public health impact, and current priorities, Jhi source

      The Implementation of Tobacco Control Policies section says tobacco taxes increased 20-fold between 2008 and 2017. The Impact on Smoking Prevalence section reports daily smoking prevalence falling from 25% in 2010 to 20% in 2017—a 20% relative decline. Our copy does not report a 36.5 billion UAH increase in the state budget, so that part of the claim is unsupported. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Tobacco taxes reduce initiation among youth, demand and consumption among current smokers, and relapse among former smokers.

    “Tobacco taxes reduce initiation among youth, demand and consumption among current smokers, and relapse among former smokers.5–10”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim3 of 6 sources checked
    • cites [5] source
    • cites [6] source

      The TAX, PRICE AND TOBACCO USE section says higher taxes and prices prevent initiation among young people, reduce overall demand, and reduce consumption among continuing users. It does not report that they reduce relapse among former smokers; a search for relapse found no supporting passage. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [7] source
    • cites [8] Ekpu, 2015, The economic impact of smoking and of reducing smoking prevalence: review of evidence, Tob Use Insights source

      The section on effectiveness and cost effectiveness of smoking cessation interventions (page unavailable) says tobacco taxes reduce demand and consumption, including among young smokers. It does not establish that taxes specifically reduce youth initiation or relapse among former smokers; its discussion of relapse prevention concerns medications, not taxes. (LLM, conf=0.87)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [9] Kostova, 2014, Exploring the relationship between cigarette prices and smoking among adults: a cross-country study of low- and middle-income nations, Nicotine Tob Res source

      The Abstract and Results report that higher cigarette prices were associated with lower smoking prevalence and fewer cigarettes smoked by current smokers in 13 low- and middle-income countries. The study examines price associations, not the causal effect of taxes, and does not establish reduced youth initiation or relapse among former smokers. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [10] Ross, 2014, The impact of cigarette excise taxes on smoking cessation rates from 1994 to 2010 in Poland, Russia, and Ukraine, Nicotine Tob Res source

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Advocates from CSOs consistently report efforts to predict and pre-empt tobacco industry activities, and report that detailed information on industry behaviour and how it was countered in other countries is important for informing their own efforts.

    “Advocates from Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) consistently report efforts to predict and pre-empt tobacco industry activities, and report that detailed information on industry behaviour and how it was countered in other countries is important for informing their own efforts.19”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [19] source

      Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    The WB used an analysis from 2016 that concluded that high tobacco taxes lead to greater reductions in tobacco-caused morbidity and mortality among low income smokers who are more likely to reduce their consumption.

    “The WB used an analysis from 2016 that concluded that high tobacco taxes lead to greater reductions in tobacco-caused morbidity and mortality among low income smokers who are more likely to reduce their consumption (IDI3 IDI8).54”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [54] Fuchs A , Meneses F . Regressive or progressive? the effect of tobacco taxes in Ukraine. Washington D.C World Bank Group; 2017. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/765671507036953947/pdf/WP-P154568-UkraineRegressiveorProgressiveTobacco-PUBLIC.pdf [Accessed 24 June 2020]. source

      The indexed passages under “106 downloads” are repository metadata and an abstract, not passages from the paper’s full text. Searches for low-income smokers’ consumption responses and tobacco-related morbidity and mortality returned no full-text passage establishing the claimed comparison or the reference to a 2016 analysis. (LLM, conf=0.72)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Tobacco companies have historically maintained low prices in Ukraine by undercutting each other, lobbying against tobacco tax increases, and absorbing small tax increases rather than passing them on to consumers.

    “Tobacco companies have historically maintained low prices in Ukraine by undercutting each other to keep prices low, lobbying against legislation increasing tobacco taxes, and absorbing small tax increases rather than passing them on to consumers.13–15”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [13] source
    • cites [14] source

      The Discussion (page unavailable) says tobacco companies competed for market share in Russia and Ukraine, and the Tobacco control section describes industry lobbying that weakened a Ukrainian advertising ban. Neither passage says companies undercut one another on price, lobbied against tobacco-tax increases in Ukraine, or absorbed tax increases instead of passing them on to consumers. (LLM, conf=0.78)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [15] Krasovsky, 2010, "The lobbying strategy is to keep excise as low as possible" - tobacco industry excise taxation policy in Ukraine, Tob Induc Dis source

      The Results (1999–2000 and 2000–2007; page numbers unavailable) document lobbying against tax increases and report that inflation-adjusted cigarette prices fell while tobacco companies pursued competitive interests. The paper does not establish that companies undercut one another on price or absorbed small tax increases instead of passing them on to consumers. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Interpretationcitation

    Evidence that smoking increases the risk for severe complications and death from COVID-19 may additionally strengthen calls for tobacco tax increases.

    “Evidence that smoking increases the risk for severe complications and death from COVID-19 may additionally strengthen calls for tobacco tax increases.78–80”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim2 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [78] Israel A , Feldhamer I , Lahad A medRxiv, 2020. Available: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.01.20118877v2.full.pdf
    • cites [79] Karanasos, 2020, Impact of smoking status on disease severity and mortality of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis, Nicotine Tob Res source

      The Results report a modest increase in severe disease among hospitalized COVID-19 patients, but no statistically significant association with mortality. The paper describes the mortality evidence as inconclusive, so it does not establish the claimed increased risk of death. The tobacco-tax proposal is the citing authors’ framing, not a finding attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.90)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [80] Patanavanich, 2020, Smoking is associated with COVID-19 progression: a meta-analysis, Nicotine Tob Res source

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    The need for context-specific financial and economic data is common among CSOs in LMICs.

    “The need for context-specific financial and economic data is common needs among CSOs in LMICs,19”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    Powerful actors in countries across the globe and across industries threatened by policy change similarly use lobbying to water down policy to their benefit, sometimes behind closed doors.

    “Additionally, like the tobacco industry in Ukraine, powerful actors in countries across the globe and across industries threatened by policy change similarly use lobbying to water down policy to their benefit, sometimes behind closed doors.20–22 24–26 28 33 34 63–65”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim5 of 7 sources checked
    • cites [20] source

      The review’s ‘Policies and issues examined’ section reports resistance from powerful actors whose interests are challenged by reform. Its ‘Critical evaluation’ section also notes that opposition can occur within a closed bureaucratic arena. It does not establish that such actors use lobbying to water down policies for their benefit across countries and industries. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [21] Chantornvong S , Collin J , Dodgson R . Political economy of tobacco control in low-income and middle-income countries: lessons from Thailand and Zimbabwe. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 2000;78.

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [22] Ayuningtyas, 2019, Conflict and resolution on politics of tobacco control in Indonesia, Pertanika J Soc Sci & Hum
    • cites [24] Udokanma, 2021, A health policy analysis of the implementation of the National tobacco control act in Nigeria, Health Policy Plan source

      The Politics stream describes British American Tobacco’s efforts to influence Nigerian parliamentarians and weaken or stop tobacco-control legislation. That supports the claim’s core example of an industry actor seeking to blunt policy change, but the paper does not establish the broader assertion across countries and industries or specifically describe lobbying behind closed doors. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [25] Uang, 2018, Tobacco control law implementation in a middle-income country: transnational tobacco control network overcoming tobacco industry opposition in Colombia, Glob Public Health source

      The Introduction says the tobacco industry fights policies through lobbying, and the Discussion reports lobbying against local enforcement in Colombia and similar opposition in other countries. The paper supports the tobacco-industry example, but does not establish the claim across industries or say that the lobbying occurred behind closed doors. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [26] source

      In “Continuing contestation: obfuscation and delay” (page unavailable), the paper says tobacco multinationals dealing with Thai politicians sought to delay or water down regulations. “Transnational tobacco companies” describes their efforts to build political leverage through personal connections and hospitality. The paper supports the Thai tobacco-industry example, but does not establish the sentence’s broader claim about actors across countries and industries. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [28] Smith, 2013, What is known about tobacco industry efforts to influence tobacco Tax? A systematic review of empirical studies, Tob Control source

      The section on tactics to keep tobacco taxes low reports direct lobbying of policymakers and the use of front groups and third parties to conceal tobacco-industry involvement. The Conclusion cautions that the evidence is heavily biased toward the US and limited elsewhere. The paper therefore supports the tobacco-industry example, but not the claim’s extension to actors across industries and countries across the globe. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    Use of scientific evidence including country-specific projections was used during the proposal of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes in Philadelphia and Mexico, along with other LMICs.

    “use of scientific evidence including country-specific projections were used during the proposal of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes in Philadelphia and Mexico, along with other LMICs.19 59 60”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [19] source

      The Results section (‘Countering activities: key areas and challenges encountered’; page unavailable) discusses advocates’ need for country-specific evidence in tobacco control. Searches for sugar-sweetened beverage taxes, Philadelphia, Mexico, and country-specific projections found no passage addressing their use in tax proposals. (LLM, conf=0.75)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [59] James, 2020, The politics of taxes for health: an analysis of the passage of the sugar-sweetened beverage tax in Mexico, Health Syst Reform source
    • cites [60] Purtle, 2018, A case study of the Philadelphia sugar-sweetened beverage tax policymaking process, J Public Health Manag Pract source

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    Highlighting the economic cost of tobacco use, as well as framing policy as a health measure, is consistent with the strategy used in Nigeria to pass their national tobacco control act.

    “Highlighting the economic cost of tobacco use, as well as framing policy as a health measure, is consistent with the strategy used in Nigeria to pass their national tobacco control act.24”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [24] Udokanma, 2021, A health policy analysis of the implementation of the National tobacco control act in Nigeria, Health Policy Plan source

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Existing governmental support enabled collaboration with proponents of high taxes and a smoother policy adoption process.

    “Existing governmental support enabled collaboration with proponents of high taxes and a smoother policy adoption process (IDI3 IDI11 IDI12).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The main actors involved in the 7-year plan included both proponents and opponents of high taxes, with all publicly agreeing that there was a need to adopt legislation to meet the requirement of the EU-UAA.

    “The main actors involved in the 7-year plan included both proponents and opponents of high taxes, with all publicly agreeing that there was a need to adopt legislation to meet the requirement of the EU-UAA (table 3).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingcitation

    Collaboration across sectors was critical, and the network that emerged was interconnected, with organisations generating, passing and using information in a feedback loop.

    “Collaboration across these sectors was critical, and the network that emerged as a result was interconnected, with organisations generating, passing and using information in a feedback loop.47 55”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [47] LIFE Advocacy Center . Story of success: tobacco taxation in Ukraine, 2018. Available: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8o_mBzudQE[Accessed 11 Nov 2019].
    • cites [55] Ukraine: the Parliament Approved a 7-year tobacco tax increase plan. FCTC implementation database, 2017. Available: https://untobaccocontrol.org/impldb/ukraine-the-parliament-approved-a-7-year-tobacco-tax-increase-plan/

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    WB passed data to the CSO Life, who organised more public-facing discussions.

    “WB also passed data to the CSO Life, who organised more public-facing discussions (IDI12).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The MoF was observed to operate technocratically and had consistently responded to data-backed arguments regarding revenue generation.

    “The MoF was observed to operate technocratically and had consistently responded to data-backed arguments regarding revenue generation (IDI1 IDI11).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The MoF was more motivated to find a way to meet the tobacco tax directive and secure a revenue stream.

    “The MoF was more motivated to find a way to meet the tobacco tax directive and secure a revenue stream (IDI1 IDI3).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Findingown data

    Key informants believed that opponents considered a long-term plan to achieve EU integration favourable because it would allow companies to predict the price of their products for many years into the future.

    “Key informants believed that opponents considered a long-term plan to achieve EU integration favourable as it would allow companies to predict the price of their products for many years into the future (IDI6 IDI11).49 50”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [49] A pack of cigarettes in Ukraine in 2018 will rise by 4-5 UAH as a result of increased excise taxes., 2018. Interfax-Ukraine. Available: https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/474533.html[Accessed 24 June 2020].
    • cites [50] Holubeva O . European prices for Ukrainian smokers: new increasing costs of cigarettes, 2017. 112 UA. Available: https://112.international/article/european-prices-for-ukrainian-smokers-new-increasing-costs-of-cigarettes-20692.html [Accessed 24 June 2020].

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Proponents from CSOs and multilateral organisations wanted to increase tobacco taxes and decrease the affordability of tobacco as much as possible to drive down consumption and associated health problems.

    “Proponents from CSOs and multilateral organisations wanted to increase tobacco taxes and decrease the affordability of tobacco as much as possible to drive down consumption and associated health problems (IDI1 IDI3 IDI6 IDI11 IDI12).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingnone given

    WB generated evidence and passed it directly to the MoF.

    “WB generated evidence and passed it directly to the MoF.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingcitation

    WB built trust and respect with the MoF during their 2016 collaboration by maintaining a strict protocol and creating an iterative process to solicit and incorporate feedback, and were thus accepted as a stakeholder during 2017 tax considerations.

    “WB built trust and respect with the MoF during their 2016 collaboration by maintaining a strict protocol and creating an iterative process to solicit and incorporate feedback, and were thus accepted as a stakeholder during 2017 tax considerations (IDI3 IDI11).56”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [56] Webber LEI , Andreeva T , Sotomayor N . Modeling the long-term health and cost impacts of reducing smoking prevalence through tobacco taxation in Ukraine. Washington, D.C. World Bank Group; 2017. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/559401490166268124/Modeling-the-long-term-health-and-cost-impacts-of-reducing-smoking-prevalence-through-tobacco-taxation-in-Ukraine [Accessed 24 June 2020].

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingreasoning

    WB used Ukrainian epidemiological data to model the number of lives that could be saved as a result of higher tobacco prices and reduced consumption, an effective argument with the MoF and Ministry of Health.

    “WB used Ukrainian epidemiological data to model the number of lives that could be saved as a result of higher tobacco prices and reduced consumption, an effective argument with the MoF and Ministry of Health (IDI12).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The EU-UAA, a significant budget deficit, and a history of tobacco tax success were contextual factors contributing to passage of Ukraine's 7-year tobacco tax plan.

    “The European Union-Ukraine Association Agreement, a significant budget deficit and a history of tobacco tax success were all contextual factors contributing to policy passage.”
    • Also stated in: § Factors · plain
      “Three major factors emerged as influential to the adoption of the 7-year plan: the EU-UAA, a significant budget deficit, and previous success with raising tobacco taxes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingreasoning

    Past success meant that there was already high awareness of and positive attitudes towards tobacco taxes as a revenue stream among some MoF and MPs as well as awareness of industry tactics.

    “Past success meant that there was already high awareness of and positive attitudes towards tobacco taxes as a revenue stream among some Ministry of Finance (MoF) and members of parliament (MPs) as well as awareness of industry tactics (IDI4 IDI6).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingcitation

    Press conferences were used to present the health and economic benefits of increasing tobacco taxes, scenarios for increasing tobacco taxes to align with the directive, pros and cons of draft legislation, and the effects of legislative compromises that reduced the effectiveness of the law.

    “Press conferences were used to present the health and economic benefits of increasing tobacco taxes, scenarios for increasing tobacco taxes to align with the directive before draft legislation was introduced, pros and cons of draft legislation once it was under consideration, and the effects of legislative compromises that reduced the effectiveness of the law (IDI3 IDI6 IDI8 IDI10).43”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [43] Raising excise taxes on tobacco is an effective tool for filling the budget and maintaining health. Ukrainian center for tobacco control, 2017. Available: http://tobaccocontrol.org.ua/news/pidvishchiennia-aktsiziv-na-tiutiun-diievii-instrumient-napovniennia-biudzhietu-ta-zbieriezhiennia-zdorov-ia-1?fbclid=IwAR10vOiVrzsQBHvA7Ycr_1DYmoY9oyoNd2dZftHOOrVb2LOb5vZPv7yjUiY [Accessed 24 Jun 2020].

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingcitation

    WB collaborated with the CSO Life to organise expert round tables to discuss policy scenarios and made two short videos portraying Ukraine's history of success with tobacco taxes.

    “WB also collaborated with the CSO Life to organise expert round tables to discuss policy scenarios and made two short videos portraying Ukraine’s history of success with tobacco taxes (IDI1 IDI6).46 47”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [46] The World Bank . Tobacco taxes in Ukraine: multiple gains for Society, 2017 The World Bank. Available: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/video/2017/04/26/video-tobacco-tax-in-ukraine[Accessed 11 Nov 2019].
    • cites [47] LIFE Advocacy Center . Story of success: tobacco taxation in Ukraine, 2018. Available: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8o_mBzudQE[Accessed 11 Nov 2019].

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingreasoning

    Media were subsequently more likely to reach out to the UCTC for comments, which put UCTC in a better position to counter the inaccurate information circulated by the industry.

    “Media were subsequently more likely to reach out to the UCTC for comments, which put UCTC in a better position to counter the inaccurate information circulated by the industry (IDI6).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    The financial crisis resulted in devaluation of the Ukrainian currency, IMF debt and reduction in GDP, increasing the importance of additional revenue streams that a tobacco tax could help fill.

    “The financial crisis resulted in devaluation of the Ukrainian currency, International Monetary Fund debt and reduction in GDP, increasing the importance of additional revenue streams that a tobacco tax could help fill (IDI1 IDI2 IDI3 IDI6 IDI8 IDI9 IDI12).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Proponents of high tobacco taxes used media advocacy, generated scientific evidence, and collaborated across multiple sectors to support passage of the 7-year plan.

    “Proponents of high tobacco taxes capitalised on this opportunity, using media advocacy, generating scientific evidence and collaborating effectively across multiple sectors to support the passage of the plan.”
    • Also stated in: § Proponents · plain
      “Media advocacy, scientific evidence and collaboration converged to form the proponents’ strategy (table 4).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingown data

    Sources of contention regarding how to achieve taxation harmonisation and tax administration details remained, with opponents attempting to minimise negative impacts on consumption while proponents attempted to maximise them.

    “Sources of contention regarding how to achieve taxation harmonisation and tax administration details, however, remained, with opponents attempting to minimise negative impacts on consumption while proponents attempted to maximise them.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingnone given

    Local NGOs noted that the government tended to be very closed and was not receptive to meeting with advocacy organisations.

    “Local NGOs noted that the government tended to be very closed and was not receptive to meeting with advocacy organisations, either.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingreasoning

    MoF and WB involvement are both important features of the Ukraine case, as the MoF was involved in tax policy development and WB was a source of renowned expertise.

    “MoF and WB involvement are both important features of the Ukraine case, as the MoF was involved in tax policy development and WB was a source of renowned expertise.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingreasoning

    Ukraine was able to pass a medium-term tobacco tax plan for the first time in its history, although the plan suffered from industry interference.

    “Ukraine was able to pass a medium-term tobacco tax plan for the first time in its history, although the plan suffered from industry interference.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingown data

    The in-depth interviews in this study provide a detailed description of how proponents countered tobacco industry interference.

    “The in-depth nature of interviews in this study provides a detailed description of how proponents countered tobacco industry interference, content that Civil Society Organisations in low-income and middle-income countries have described as important to informing their advocacy work.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Findingcitation

    There was some recognition that Ukraine was a source of illicit trade to other European countries and that closing the gap in price might reduce illicit trade.

    “There was some recognition that Ukraine was a source of illicit trade to other European countries and that closing the gap in price might reduce illicit trade.57 58”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [57] KPMG . Project sun: a study of the illicit cigarette market in the European Union, Norway and Switzerland KPMG; 2017. https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2017/07/project-sun-2017-report.pdf [Accessed 24 June 2020].
    • cites [58] Ukraine has become the largest cigarette smuggler in the EU. Ukrainian center for tobacco control, 2017. Available: http://tobaccocontrol.org.ua/news/ukrayina-stala-naibil-shim-kontrabandistom-sighariet-u-ies [Accessed 24 Jun 2020].

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Findingnone given

    In the case of Ukraine, MPs were not strongly influenced by the stance of the MoF.

    “Unfortunately, in the case of Ukraine, MPs were not strongly influenced by the stance of the MoF.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Interpretationown data

    The public alignment of goals of multiple actors across proponents and opponents to meet the directive may explain why one key informant described the passage of the 7-year plan as smoother than campaigns for tax increases in previous years.

    “The public alignment of goals of multiple actors across proponents and opponents to meet the directive may explain why one key informant described the passage of the 7-year plan as smoother than campaigns for tax increases in previous years (IDI11).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Both interviewers had previous experience in conducting similar key informant interviews in other countries and completed relevant coursework in qualitative methods.

    “Both interviewers had previous experience in conducting similar key informant interviews in other countries and completed relevant coursework in qualitative methods.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Closed-door lobbying efforts resulting in policy dilution indicate that opponents were still very motivated to minimise price increases, undermining the ability of the policy to meet the EU directive.

    “However, closed-door lobbying efforts resulting in policy dilution indicate that opponents were still very motivated to minimise price increases, undermining the ability of the policy to meet the EU directive (IDI1 IDI2 IDI6 IDI7 IDI9 IDI11 IDI12).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductown data

    Government officials and policy opponents were unwilling to be interviewed for this case study, so details regarding how the policy was discussed among these parties may be missing.

    “Unfortunately, government officials and policy opponents were unwilling to be interviewed for this case study and details regarding how the policy was discussed among these parties may be missing.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    The tax was to be administered in local currency, the hryvnia.

    “The tax was to be administered in local currency, the hryvnia.17”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [17] Verkhovna Rada . 2245- 19 on amendments to the Tax code of Ukraine and some legislative acts of Ukraine on ensuring balance of budgetary revenues. Kiev; 2018. https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2246-19#Text[Accessed 5 Feb 2019].

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    Guidelines for Article 6 of the FCTC recommend that parties increase taxes regularly, taking into account inflation and changes in household income to ensure affordability does not increase.

    “Guidelines for Article 6 of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) recommend that parties increase taxes regularly, taking into account inflation and changes in household income to ensure affordability does not increase.11”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [11] Conference of the Parties . Guidelines for implementation of article 6 of the who FCTC. Geneva WHO; 2014. http://www.who.int/fctc/guidelines/adopted/Guidelines_article_6.pdf?ua=1 [Accessed 2 July 2019].

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Study design and conductown data

    Findings were discussed with key informants via member checking to ensure consistency with their understanding of policy passage.

    “Transcripts were not reviewed by key informants, but findings were discussed with key informants via member checking.”
    • Also stated in: § Patient and public involvement · plain
      “Additionally, during analysis and reporting, member checking was employed to ensure that results were consistent with key informant’s understanding of policy passage.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductown data

    CW and CH coded the same interview independently and then met to discuss their coding and reconcile issues and discrepancies.

    “CW and CH coded the same interview independently using a combination of an existing codebook from previous similar case studies and open coding to capture emerging codes.”
    • Also stated in: § Methods · plain
      “CW and CH then met to discuss their coding and reconcile any issues and discrepancies, then proceeded to each code half of the remaining interviews.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductown data

    Documents were collected until no new information emerged, indicating that saturation had been reached.

    “Documents were collected until no new information that had not already been obtained from the interviews or other documents emerged, indicating that saturation had been reached.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Proponents used media advocacy, scientific evidence and collaboration to take advantage of the window of opportunity created by the EU-UAA, the fiscal deficit and a history of successful tobacco tax increases.

    “Proponents used these tactics to take advantage of the window of opportunity created by the EU-UAA, the fiscal deficit and a history of successful tobacco tax increases.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Ukraine ratified the FCTC in 2006 and successfully raised its taxes multiple times since ratification.

    “Ukraine ratified the FCTC in 2006 and successfully raised its taxes multiple times since ratification.12”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [12] WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control . FCTC implementation database: Ukraine, 2018. Available: https://untobaccocontrol.org/impldb/ukraine/

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Study design and conductnone given

    This case study used triangulation through a combination of key informant interviews and document review to validate findings.

    “This study uses triangulation through a combination of key informant interviews and document review to validate findings.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    The plan increased excise taxes by nearly 30% in 2018 and then by 20% every year between 2019 and 2025.

    “The plan increased excise taxes by nearly 30% during the first year of implementation (2018), and then by 20% every year between 2019 and 2025.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Massive protests and clashes with violent police forces during the Euromaiden Revolution killed approximately 100 protesters and forced a regime change.

    “Massive protests and clashes with violent police forces ensued, killing approximately 100 protesters and forcing a regime change.40”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [40] Shveda, 2016, Ukraine’s revolution of dignity: The dynamics of Euromaidan, Journal of Eurasian Studies source

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Interpretationcitation

    These findings largely align with the findings of other studies on policy passage.

    “These findings largely align with the findings of other studies on policy passage.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Revenue constraints will make answering this call difficult, and increasing tobacco taxes may be one way to address this.

    “Revenue constraints will make answering this call difficult, and increasing tobacco taxes may be one way to address this.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    The case study focuses on one public health issue in one country, limiting generalisation to other contexts.

    “This case study focuses on one public health issue in one country. As such, readers need to be careful when generalising results to other contexts.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Article 5.3 of the FCTC calls on parties to protect tobacco control policy from the vested interests of the tobacco industry, specifically by establishing measures to limit interaction between government and the industry and ensuring transparency for interaction that do occur, as well as avoiding conflicts of interest.

    “Article 5.3 of the FCTC calls on parties to protect tobacco control policy from the vested interests of the tobacco industry, specifically by establishing measures to limit interaction between government and the industry and ensuring transparency for interaction that do occur, as well as avoiding conflicts of interest.73”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [73] World Health Organization . Guidelines for implementation of article 5.3 of the who framework convention on tobacco control. Geneva WHO; 2008. http://www.who.int/fctc/guidelines/article_5_3.pdf [Accessed 24 June 2020].

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Findings from this study could be used to support the adoption of these recommendations.

    “Findings from this study could be used to support the adoption of these recommendations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductown data

    Opponents declined to participate in key informant interviews (n=1) or failed to respond to interview requests (n=7).

    “Opponents declined to participate in key informant interviews (n=1) or failed to respond to interview requests (n=7).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    The external pressure created by the EU agreements has not been widely studied, with the exception of Szilágyi & Chapman, who explored how the tobacco industry successfully delayed policy that would meet the requirements of the directive in Hungary.

    “The external pressure created by the EU agreements has not been widely studied, with the exception of Szilágyi & Chapman, who explored how the tobacco industry successfully delayed policy that would meet the requirements of the directive in Hungary.31”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [31] Szilágyi, 2003, Tobacco industry efforts to keep cigarettes affordable: a case study from Hungary, Cent Eur J Public Health

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The Ukraine case can serve as both a model and a cautionary tale for other countries interested in passing tobacco tax policy.

    “The Ukraine case can serve as both a model and a cautionary tale for other countries interested in passing tobacco tax policy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Authors tried to mitigate this gap in data by searching for news articles that discussed industry tactics and quoted industry executives.

    “Although authors tried to mitigate this gap in data by searching for news articles that discussed industry tactics and quoted industry executives”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    Use of press conferences to inform the public and policymakers was noted in India when tobacco control proponents challenged state ties with the tobacco industry.

    “Use of press conferences to inform the public and policymakers was also noted in India when tobacco control proponents challenged state ties with the tobacco industry,35”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [35] Bhojani, 2013, Challenging ties between state and tobacco industry: advocacy lessons from India, Health Promot Perspect source

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Premisecitation

    Seven countries are currently being considered as candidates or potential candidates for EU ascension.

    “As seven countries are currently being considered as candidates or potential candidates for EU ascension,68”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [68] Candidate countries and potential candidates. European Commission, 2020. Available: https://ec.europa.eu/environment/enlarg/candidates.htm [Accessed 12 Oct 2020].

  • Probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Government employees were also unwilling to be interviewed, despite multiple attempts.

    “Government employees were also unwilling to be interviewed, despite multiple attempts.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationnone given

    Proponents used media advocacy, scientific evidence, and collaboration to capitalise on the window of opportunity created by the EU-UA, the fiscal deficit, and a past history of successful tobacco tax increases to facilitate the passage of the 7-year plan.

    “Proponents used media advocacy, scientific evidence, and collaboration to capitalise on the window of opportunity created by the EU-UA, the fiscal deficit, and a past history of successful tobacco tax increases to facilitate the passage of the 7-year plan.”
    • Also stated in: § Conclusions · plain
      “Proponents of high tobacco taxes used media advocacy, generated scientific evidence and collaborated effectively during a unique window of opportunity created by the EU-UAA, a budget deficit, and a history of successful tobacco tax increases.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Interpretationreasoning

    A united, evidence-based campaign is essential, but can still be undermined by industry interference when legislation does not protect against it.

    “This case teaches us that a united, evidence-based campaign is essential, but can still be undermined by industry interference when legislation does not protect against it.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper may give no reason why it holds.

    Interpretationreasoning

    WB may be more accepted by MoF because WB is seen (at least in Ukraine but likely elsewhere as well) as a source of expertise and even funding.

    “Additionally, WB may be more accepted by MoF because WB is seen (at least in Ukraine but likely elsewhere as well) as a source of expertise and even funding.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Interpretationcitation

    This need could be filled via partnership with WB and academics.

    “and this need could be filled via partnership with WB and academics.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    This case study focused on one country and one tobacco control policy; thus, the findings may not apply to other contexts.

    “Lastly, this case study focused on one country and one tobacco control policy; thus, the findings may not apply to other contexts.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Additional interviews may have resulted in new data not included in this paper, as we did not reach saturation through interviews alone.

    “Additional interviews may have resulted in new data not included in this paper, as we did not reach saturation through interviews alone.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Ukraine's 2009 amendment to their tobacco control law included declarative statements about prioritising public health over industry interests, but no concrete means of limiting industry influence have been introduced.

    “Although Ukraine’s 2009 amendment to their tobacco control law included declarative statements about prioritising public health over industry interests, no concrete means of limiting industry influence have been introduced.74”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [74] Assunta M . Global tobacco industry interference index 2020. Bangkok, Thailand, 2020. Available: https://globaltobaccoindex.org/upload/assets/OeQLgCFNDGHfy6gBe6BM5xA5Q2Ciksf1EjzyWXQzwaDykgKMYJ.pdf [Accessed 10 Oct 2021].

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Translation inaccuracies may have impacted our results, but the use of triangulation with key informant interviews makes this less likely.

    “It is possible that translation inaccuracies may have impacted our results, but the use of triangulation with key informant interviews makes this less likely.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Many documents were originally in Ukrainian and were translated using Google Translate.

    “Many documents were originally in Ukrainian and were translated using Google Translate.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.

    Study design and conductreasoning

    We did, however, address this limitation through the use of document review.

    “We did, however, address this limitation through the use of document review.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    Transparency International Ukraine has issued recommendations for Ukraine to meet the implementation guidelines for Article 5.3, but none of these recommendations have been included in legislation.

    “Transparency International Ukraine has issued recommendations for Ukraine to meet the implementation guidelines for Article 5.3, but none of these recommendations have been included in legislation.75”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [75] Transparency International Ukraine . Analysis of implementation of guiding principles of FCTC article 5.3 concerning restriction of the influence of the tobacco industry on anti-tobacco decision-making in Ukraine. Kiev, 2018. Available: http://sfs.gov.ua/media-tsentr/zmi/207710.html [Accessed 2 Jul 2020].

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Premisecitation

    As the world faces a continuing pandemic and a global recession, there are calls to 'strengthen public health systems and address challenges posed by informality and limited safety nets.'

    “As the world faces a continuing pandemic and a global recession, there are calls to ‘strengthen public health systems and address challenges posed by informality and limited safety nets.’76”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [76] The World Bank Group . Global economic prospects report. Washington DC World Bank Group; 2020. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/06/08/covid-19-to-plunge-global-economy-into-worst-recession-since-world-war-ii [Accessed 7 Jan 2021].

  • Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.

    Study design and conductcitation

    Our study was also limited to analysing the passage of the plan, and did not capture recent attempts by opponents to reduce the annual tax increase.

    “Our study was also limited to analysing the passage of the plan, and did not capture recent attempts by opponents to reduce the annual tax increase.81”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [81] Dauchy E , Iavorskvi P . On the taxation of cigarettes and heated tobacco products: The benefits of following current law for cigarettes and law #466-IX for HTPs. Kviv; 2020. https://dev.tobaccofreekids.org/assets/global/pdfs/en/MOF2020-10-09.pdf [Accessed 17 Feb 2021].
74 of 74

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The tactics used by policy proponents and their perceived effects have not been explored extensively in other policy case studies.

    “This case study specifically asked policy proponents which tactics they used and what effects they thought the tactics had, which has not been explored extensively in other policy case studies.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    No previous legislation in Ukraine had established tax increases for as many years into the future as the 7-year plan.

    “No previous legislation in Ukraine had established tax increases for this many years into the future.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The 7-year plan was necessary for Ukraine to join the European Union.

    “This was necessary for Ukraine to join the European Union, where the minimum tobacco tax was significantly higher than in Ukraine and many EU countries exceeded the minimum rate required by the directive.”
3 of 3

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Proponent discussion points to an opponent-strategy table

    Minor

    The text cites table 4 for proponents' strategy, but table 4 is labeled and populated with opponent strategies.

  • Opponent discussion points to a proponent-strategy table

    Minor

    The text cites table 5 for opponents' tactics, but table 5 is labeled and populated with proponent strategies.

  • Reference 17 gives conflicting legislation numbers

    Minor

    The legislation number printed in the reference is 2245-19, while its linked URL identifies the legislation as 2246-19.

  • Seven-year plan describes eight annual increases

    Minor

    The stated schedule includes an increase in 2018 and increases in each year from 2019 through 2025-eight years in total, not seven.

4 of 4

Citations

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 5

  1. Ministry of Health of Ukraine, Kiev International Institute of Sociology, World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe . Global adult tobacco survey Ukraine 2017. Kyiv; 2018. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325257431_Global_Adult_Tobacco_Survey_Report_Ukraine_2017[Accessed 22 May 2019].
  2. Conference of the Parties . Guidelines for implementation of article 6 of the who FCTC. Geneva WHO; 2014. http://www.who.int/fctc/guidelines/adopted/Guidelines_article_6.pdf?ua=1 [Accessed 2 July 2019].
  3. Chantornvong S , Collin J , Dodgson R . Political economy of tobacco control in low-income and middle-income countries: lessons from Thailand and Zimbabwe. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 2000;78.
  4. Israel A , Feldhamer I , Lahad A medRxiv, 2020. Available: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.01.20118877v2.full.pdf · DOI
  5. Transparency International Ukraine . Press-conference “How to stop tobacco attack? Expert recommendations.” Transparency International Ukraine, 2017. Available: https://ti-ukraine.org/news/stoptobaccoattack/ [Accessed 2 Jul 2020].

Cited by

Still being checked.

Related

Metadata

Authors
Weiger, C., Hoe, C., & Cohen, J. E.
Affiliations
Johns Hopkins University (US)
Corresponding author
Weiger, Caitlin
ORCID
Venue
BMJ Open
Publisher
BMJ
Published
2022-02
Volume
12
Issue
2
Pages
e049833
ISSN
2044-6055 (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049833
PMC
PMC8845221
OpenAlex
W4210995406
Semantic Scholar
411b3897788c645c5949d459d6981fa78013f330
Cited by
10
References
49
Citations by year
2025: 5 · 2024: 4 · 2023: 1
FWCI
2.36
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • BMJ Open (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
Bloomberg Philanthropies (125086)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Smoking Behavior and Cessation
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Public Health Policies and Education
Keywords
tobacco taxation, tobacco control, EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, lobbying, media advocacy, budget deficit, Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, Ukraine, tobacco control legislation
MeSH terms
Humans, Public Policy, Taxes, Nicotiana, Ukraine, Tobacco Industry, Tobacco Products

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-30, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).

A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-30 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).

Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review