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The Lifetime Risk of Stroke: Estimates From the Framingham Study
Abstract
Background and Purpose— The lifetime risk (LTR) of stroke has not been reported for the United States population; such data would assist public education and health planning. Methods— Framingham Original cohort participants (n=4897) who were stroke- and dementia-free at 55 years of age were followed biennially for up to 51 years (115 146 person years). We estimated the sex-specific 10-, 20-, and 30-year risks and LTR of developing a stroke by baseline age and blood pressure (BP) and compared it with the risk of developing Alzheimer disease (AD). Results— A total of 875 participants (522 women) developed a first-ever stroke; 749 (448 women) had an ischemic stroke. LTR of stroke was high and remained similar at ages 55, 65, and 75 years, approximating 1 in 5 for women and 1 in 6 for men. Participants with a normal BP (<120/80 mm Hg) had approximately half the LTR of stroke compared with those with high BP (≥140/90 mm Hg). The LTR of AD at age 65 (292 participants; 211 women) approximated 1 in 5 for women and 1 in 10 for men. The LTR of developing either stroke or dementia approximated 1 in 3 in both sexes. Conclusion— The LTR of stroke in middle-aged adults is 1 in 6 or more, which is equal to or greater than the LTR of AD. Women had a higher risk because of longer life expectancy. BP is a significant determinant of the LTR of stroke, and promotion of normal BP levels in the community might be expected to substantially reduce this risk.
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Metadata
- Authors
- Seshadri, S., Beiser, A., Kelly-Hayes, M., Kase, C. S., Au, R., Kannel, W. B., & Wolf, P. A.
- Venue
- Stroke
- Published
- 2006-02
- Volume
- 37
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 345-350
- ISSN
- 0039-2499 (ISSN-L)
- 1524-4628
- OpenAlex
- W2102320098
- Cited by
- 705
- References
- 3
- FWCI
- 22.58
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
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