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Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California

Open access

Mann, Michael L., Batllori, Enric, Moritz, Max A., Waller, Eric K., Berck, Peter, Flint, Alan L., Flint, Lorraine E., Dolfi, Emmalee·2016·PLOS ONE

DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0153589PMC PMC4849771

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Abstract

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

Checked 2026-10-06 · 9 references not checked yet

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This paper develops an empirical wildfire model for California that integrates climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic variables, and finds that human influences substantially improve fire projections. It estimates that burned area will increase by 2.2% to 5.0% by 2050 under two climate models, while omitting anthropogenic variables overstates climatic effects by at least 24%.

Key findings

Anthropogenic influences account for up to 50% of explanatory power in the model, and in areas such as the Southern California wildland-urban interface they explain around half of total fire count.
Total burned area is expected to increase by 2.2% under PCM and 5.0% under GFDL by 2050.
Omitting anthropogenic variables would overstate the importance of climatic variables by at least 24%, and would significantly overstate lightning as an ignition source.
The final model estimates that each pixel will experience one fire event at most every 30.7 years, and every 377 years at the median; many fire-prone areas near Los Angeles and San Bernardino National Forests experienced an estimated 50% reduction in mean fire return interval from 1951–1975 to 1976–2000.

Methods

The authors use a zero-inflated negative binomial regression at 1080 m resolution, summarized in 25-year periods, to model fire counts and burned area for California from 1951–2050.
The model is calibrated on 1976–2000 and validated against 1951–1975, then forecast for 2001–2025 and 2026–2050 under CMIP3 PCM and GFDL climate models under the A2 emissions scenario.
Ten independent variables cover climate/water balance (AET, CWD), terrain, lightning, housing density, distance to populated places, distance to campgrounds, and public land ownership; five model specifications test natural versus anthropogenic drivers, with regression bagging across 30 subsamples using a 2.5% sampling fraction (N = 7332).

Limitations

The paper states that it assumes CMIP3 PCM and GFDL A2 bracket future climate conditions, that cross-sectional training data assume vegetation follows 25-year climate norms, and that fixed coefficients and distribution shape over time limit prediction of unobserved non-linear responses.
It also states that the model does not capture invasive species or pathogens, fuel treatment, severe weather/extreme events, and that historical fire counts are incomplete particularly before 1980; lightning intensity is assumed fixed over time.
Evident from the text: the use of 25-year means and climate-model averages mutes interannual variability and extreme events, and the model cannot account for specific sequences of drier and wetter years.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1371/journal.pone.0153589

Cites

47 of 56 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 68 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Abstract
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclear
- Rests on an assumption: The relationships between fire and its predictors estimated from 1976–2000 remain stationary and valid for forecasting 2001–2050.
In the paper
“We find that we can reject the null hypothesis that the two models are equally close to the actual model in favor of zero-inflation, which is a superior model (p<0.01) [52].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Pre-Estimation Tests, Specification, and Model Performance
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [52] Q VH, 1989, Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and non-nested Hypotheses, Econometrica source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
In the paper
“Our finding of a moderate increases in the number of fires in the two forecast periods evaluated (2001–2025, 2026–2050) are in agreement with Lenihan et al [11], who use dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to forecast relatively small increases (on the order of 4–7%) to burned area but with broad shifts in fire regime and plant community patterns.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [11] JM Lenihan, 2008, Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California, Clim Change source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“For instance, model estimates capture the decreasing mFRI (increasing fire frequency) throughout coastal southern California and the Sierra Nevada between 1951 and 2000 [12,53] (Fig 2AB).”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [12] AL Westerling, 2008, Climate change and wildfire in California, Clim Change source
- Not checked yetcites [53] JE Keeley, 2001, Historic Fire Regime in Southern California Shrublands, Conserv Biol source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For instance, many fire prone areas in and around Los Angeles and San Bernardino National Forests experienced an estimated reduction in mFRI of 50%.”
- Also stated in: § Anthropogenic influences on Fire · hedged
  “For example, the model estimates indicate that many fire prone areas in and around San Bernardino National Forests in southern California experienced a reduction in mFRI of 50% (more frequent fire) from 1951–1975 to 1976–2000.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Historic Climate
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
In the paper
“Overall, our results indicate that spatial heterogeneity in fire’s response to anthropogenic influences between ecoregions and between urban and rural communities is complex [1] (Fig 3B).”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Anthropogenic influences on Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] AD Syphard, 2007, Human influence on California fire regimes, Ecol Appl source
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Abstract
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- Rests on an assumption: The relationships between fire and its predictors estimated from 1976–2000 remain stationary and valid for forecasting 2001–2050.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Californians have built in or near areas of natural vegetation, known as the wildland-urban interface (WUI), much of which is fire-prone [2,3].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2] VC Radeloff, 2005, The wildland-urban interface in the United States, Ecol Appl source
- Not checked yetcites [3] RB Hammer, 2007, Wildland–urban interface housing growth during the 1990s in California, Oregon, and Washington, Int J Wildl Fire source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The distribution of vegetation types is largely controlled by the biophysical effects of climatic variables [42–44].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Vegetation amount and flammability
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [42] FA Douglas, 1994, Temporal variation in actual evapotranspiration of terrestrial ecosystems: Patterns and ecological implications, J Biogeogr source
- Not checked yetcites [43] NL Stephenson, 1990, Climatic control of vegetation distribution: the role of the water balance, Am Nat source
- Not checked yetcites [44] JR Leathwick, 2001, Competative interactions between tree species in New Zealand’s old-growth indigenous forests, Ecology source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“projections for the number of wildfire events by the end the century vary dramatically (e.g., +9 to 13% [11], +40 to 49% [14], and +34 to 53% [12]).”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [11] JM Lenihan, 2008, Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California, Clim Change source
- Not checked yetcites [14] C Price, 1994, The impact of a 2xCO2 climate on lightning caused fires, J Clim source
- Not checked yetcites [12] AL Westerling, 2008, Climate change and wildfire in California, Clim Change source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Empirical work in California [1] supports the proposed relationship between fire and human activity and the “pyric transition”–that is, the observation that fire activity initially increases in parallel with increased human influence, but then decreases beyond some point as characteristics of the built urban environment and increased suppression effort reduce it [21,22].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] AD Syphard, 2007, Human influence on California fire regimes, Ecol Appl source
- Not checked yetcites [21] D Bowman, 2011, The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth, J Biogeogr source
- Not checked yetcites [22] V Butsic, 2015, Land Use and Wildfire: A Review of Local Interactions and Teleconnections, Land source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“These spatial and temporal resolutions can be considered representative of landscape scale fire regimes for California [8,9].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Model overview
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [8] MA Parisien, 2009, Environmental controls on the distribution of wildfire at multiple spatial scales, Ecol Monogr source
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
In the paper
“because ignition data are limited, we use two variables correlated with ignitions (distance to population centers, housing density) as proxies [1].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Anthropogenic influences
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] AD Syphard, 2007, Human influence on California fire regimes, Ecol Appl source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Abstract
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- Rests on an assumption: The relationships between fire and its predictors estimated from 1976–2000 remain stationary and valid for forecasting 2001–2050.
In the paper
“humans are currently responsible for igniting approximately 95% of wildfires in the state [1].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] AD Syphard, 2007, Human influence on California fire regimes, Ecol Appl source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
In the paper
“Despite some shortcomings this data is considered the most complete record of fire perimeters for the state, compiling information from CALFIRE/FRAP, United States Department of Agriculture, Bureau of Land Management, the National Park Service, and Bureau of Indian Affairs and Department of Defense [27].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Model overview
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] FRAP. Fire Perimeter Project Introduction [Internet]. 2015 [cited 10 Aug 2015]. Available: http://frap.fire.ca.gov/projects/fire_data/fire_perimeters_index.php
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Relatively little is known, however, about influences of fire suppression, land use patterns, and other human activities at finer scales of analysis [1,9,20].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] AD Syphard, 2007, Human influence on California fire regimes, Ecol Appl source
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
- Not checked yetcites [20] P Laris, 2013, Integrating Land Change Science and Savanna Fire Models in West Africa, Land source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
In the paper
“Additionally, the significant influence of distance to public campsites in our model highlights that even low levels of human activity (as may be the case in many public lands) can have a measurable effect on the likelihood of fires in wilderness areas [64].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Anthropogenic influences on Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [64] AD Syphard, 2008, Predicting spatial patterns of fire on a southern California landscape, Int J Wildl Fire source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This implies that ignoring human contributions to ignitions would strongly overstate the role of lightning as an ignition source.”
- Also stated in: § Anthropogenic influences on Fire · boosted
  “For example, comparing models 1 and 5 demonstrates that omitting anthropogenic influences significantly overstates the role of lightning as an ignition source, and increases the size coefficients for climate-relevant variables (aetAave and cwdAave) by 24% on average.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Model Interpretation
Load-bearingStrength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
In the paper
“Our ability to forecast the effects of variation is also limited by the GCMs’ reliance on the mean of many simulations, muting the effects of extreme events and intra/interannual variability [61].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [61] Z Liang X-, 2008, Do CGCMs Simulate the North American Monsoon Precipitation Seasonal–Interannual Variability?, J Clim source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The similarities of our statistical approach with such process-based approaches suggest that AET and CWD are useful proxies for the determinants of both a shifting plant community as well as wildfire distribution [9,62].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
- Not checked yetcites [62] NL Stephenson, 1998, Actual evapotranspiration and deficit: biologically meaningful correlates of vegetation distribution across spatial scales, J Biogeogr source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
In the paper
“At the other end of the spectrum, in locations that experience ideal weather conditions for wildfire but a lack of continuous fuel (e.g., semi-arid deserts), small increases in rainfall would increase fuels available to burn [59].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] GF Rogers, 1987, Winter precipitation and fire in the Sonoran Desert, J Arid Environ source
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Many wildfire forecast models do not, or are unable to, include anthropogenic influences in a meaningful way [9,10,12,14].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Anthropogenic influences on Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
- Not checked yetcites [10] JM Lenihan, 2003, Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California, Ecol Appl source
- Not checked yetcites [12] AL Westerling, 2008, Climate change and wildfire in California, Clim Change source
- Not checked yetcites [14] C Price, 1994, The impact of a 2xCO2 climate on lightning caused fires, J Clim source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
In the paper
“Historically, many high elevation sites in California rarely burned because of long-lasting snowpack [55].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [55] AE Hessl, 2011, Pathways for climate change effects on fire: models, data, and uncertainties, Prog Phys Geogr source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
In the paper
“This is a classic case of omitted variable bias, whereby statistical models would attribute some part, or all, of the anthropogenic influences on variability to other variables retained in the model [63].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Anthropogenic influences on Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [63] D Gujarati, 2003, Basic Econometrics
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes

It may state two separate claims as one. 34
Probably not a substantial claim. 25

The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Abstract
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The relationships between fire and its predictors estimated from 1976–2000 remain stationary and valid for forecasting 2001–2050.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively).”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Abstract
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The relationships between fire and its predictors estimated from 1976–2000 remain stationary and valid for forecasting 2001–2050.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Our analysis indicates that this may be especially true for the Sierra Nevada where a changing climate could increase the number of fires (with mFRI reducing between 50–150+ years) on the eastern edge (not seen in other models [9,58]) and to a slightly lesser degree (with mFRI reducing 0–100+ years) below the western edge.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
- Not checked yetcites [58] AL Westerling, 2006, CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDFIRE IN AND AROUND CALIFORNIA: FIRE MODELING AND LOSS MODELING
Load-bearingStrength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Similarly, the total area burned in the state is estimated to increase from somewhere between +15 and 50% [10,15].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [10] JM Lenihan, 2003, Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California, Ecol Appl source
- Not checked yetcites [15] JS Fried, 2004, The impact of climate change on wildfire severity: A regional forecast for Northern California, Clim Change source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Relationships between fire and global population patterns have been identified [16–18]”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [16] W Knorr, 2014, Impact of human population density on fire frequency at the global scale, Biogeosciences source
- Not checked yetcites [17] I Bistinas, 2013, Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales, PLoS One source
- Not checked yetcites [18] A Aldersley, 2011, Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire, Sci Total Environ source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The spatial downscaling is shown to have no adverse impacts on the estimates of climate, improving the estimates in many cases [29].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Model overview
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [29] Jarvis A, Reuter HI, Nelson A, Guevara E. Hole-filled SRTM for the globe Version 4, available from the CGIAR-CSI SRTM 90m Database [Internet]. 2008. Available: http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is recognized as a robust estimate of vascular plant productivity [45] and can be regarded as a proxy of biomass accumulation and regrowth.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Vegetation amount and flammability
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [45] J Major, 1967, . Potential evapotranspiration and plant distribution in western states with emphasis on California, AMER ASSOC Adv SCI PUBL
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“in San Diego County three of every four homes were built within such risk-prone WUI areas [1].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] AD Syphard, 2007, Human influence on California fire regimes, Ecol Appl source
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Since CMIP5 projections are an incremental advance over CMIP3 data [34–36], this does not limit the relevance of our analysis as a tool for assessing anthropogenic influences on future fire activity.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Climate futures
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34] R Knutti, 2013, Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there, Geophys Res Lett source
- Not checked yetcites [35] R Knutti, 2013, Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections, Nat Clim Chang source
- Not checked yetcites [36] C Carroll, 2015, Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change, PLoS One source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Climatic water deficit (CWD) is the evaporative demand exceeding available soil moisture [45] and can be seen as proxy for conditions favorable for vegetation flammability and wildfire occurrence.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Vegetation amount and flammability
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [45] J Major, 1967, . Potential evapotranspiration and plant distribution in western states with emphasis on California, AMER ASSOC Adv SCI PUBL
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“There is general consensus that fire occurrence will increase with climate change, with the exception of very dry scenarios [13]”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [13] E Batllori, 2013, Climate change-induced shifts in fire for Mediterranean ecosystems, Glob Ecol Biogeogr source
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“We apply regression ‘bagging’ techniques to minimize the effect of spatial autocorrelation in model residuals, and to provide more generalizable results, while maintaining an effective sample size for hypothesis testing [9].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Sampling, Spatial Autocorrelation, and Estimation
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedn = 7,332
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“in coarse resolution models anthropogenic effects are assumed to manifest primarily through the availability of ignitions [19].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] MA Krawchuk, 2009, Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire, PLoS One source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Note that wildfire can also respond to changes in vegetation through non-native introductions, such as the invasive grasses of the Mojave [65], or through invasive pathogens such as sudden oak death [66]. Such processes are unlikely to be captured in our approach.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Modeling Assumptions & Limitations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [65] ML Brooks, 2006, Spatial and temporal patterns of wildfires in the Mojave Desert, 1980–2004, J Arid Environ source
- Not checked yetcites [66] MR Metz, 2011, Interacting disturbances: wildfire severity affected by stage of forest disease invasion, Ecol Appl source
Strength:hedged· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Additionally, we do not include the effects of fuel treatment, which have been shown to be effective in some ecosystems [7].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Modeling Assumptions & Limitations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [7] MA Moritz, 2014, Learning to coexist with wildfire, Nature source
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The use of GFLD and PCM projections can be thought as contrasted future climatic bookends [9,46,54].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
- Not checked yetcites [46] M Krawchuk, 2011, Constraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient, Ecology source
- Not checked yetcites [54] A Meyn, 2007, Environmental drivers of large, infrequent wildfires: The emerging conceptual model, Prog Phys Geogr source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, given the relatively small role of natural ignitions in California, this should not greatly influence model outputs.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Modeling Assumptions & Limitations
Strength:hedged· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The intensity of lightning strikes is fixed over time.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Therefore, any non-linear responses not observed in the sample period cannot be predicted for future periods.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Modeling Assumptions & Limitations
Strength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The relationships between fire and climatic and anthropogenic variables (through fixed coefficients and shape parameter from the negative binomial model) are fixed over time.
In the paper
“Our model uses mean annual variation and does not account for specific sequences of dryer and wetter years, due to the long estimation period and challenges of GCMs in predicting such sequences [23].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [23] MA Moritz, 2012, Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Ecosphere source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This implies roughly that ratio between cells with low and high burn frequency remains fixed into the future.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Modeling Assumptions & Limitations
Strength:hedged· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The shape of the Negative Binomial distribution is fixed over time.
In the paper
“This is in line with recent findings of declining future fire probabilities for Mediterranean ecosystems under climate scenarios projecting warmer and drier conditions [13].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [13] E Batllori, 2013, Climate change-induced shifts in fire for Mediterranean ecosystems, Glob Ecol Biogeogr source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Other studies point to an increase in the number of wildfires due to increased spring and summer temperatures, early snowmelt, and decreased precipitation [9,56,57].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
- Not checked yetcites [56] AL Westerling, 2006, Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity, Science source
- Not checked yetcites [57] JA Lutz, 2008, Climate, lightning ignitions, and fire severity in Yosemite National Park, California, USA, Int J Wildl Fire source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passes
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Although humans can have diverse effects on fire regimes (Fig 1), they alter them through three dominant mechanisms: increased ignitions, fire management practices, and the modification of land cover [21].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Anthropogenic influences on Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [21] D Bowman, 2011, The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth, J Biogeogr source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“For instance, many models drop urban areas from the sample while retaining other systems heavily influenced by humans (e.g. the WUI, federal and state parks) [9,12] or more generally omit anthropogenic variables [10,14].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Anthropogenic influences on Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
- Not checked yetcites [12] AL Westerling, 2008, Climate change and wildfire in California, Clim Change source
- Not checked yetcites [10] JM Lenihan, 2003, Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California, Ecol Appl source
- Not checked yetcites [14] C Price, 1994, The impact of a 2xCO2 climate on lightning caused fires, J Clim source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibrated
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
It may state two separate claims as one.

55 of 55

The paper relies on this without support.
The influence of housing development and land tenure is largely unknown.
“A key contribution is much improved handling of the effects of housing development and land tenure, the influence of which is largely unknown.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Lightning strike data are representative of the spatial distribution of strikes across all time periods.
“Lightning strike data are treated as time invariant and used for all time periods, assuming thus they are representative of the spatial distribution of strikes.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Data without meaningful historical records and forecasts are representative when treated as time invariant.
“All other data without meaningful historical records and forecasts are treated as time invariant (see Table 1).”
The paper relies on this without support.
The relationships between fire and its predictors estimated from 1976–2000 remain stationary and valid for forecasting 2001–2050.
“Regressions on the 1976–2000 period are used to calibrate the model, and validated by comparing actual and modeled burn counts for the 1951–1975 period. Finally, forecast estimates for the 2001–2025 and 2026–2050 periods are developed under the CMIP3 Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models under the A2 emissions scenario.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The CMIP3 PCM and GFDL A2 scenarios act as a representative climate envelope that brackets the possible range of future conditions for California.
“First and foremost, we assume that the CMIP3 PCM and GFDL A2 scenarios act as a representative climate envelope that brackets the possible range of future conditions for California (see Forecasting Considerations section).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Major vegetation patterns and their response to wildfire should follow the 25-year climate norms bounded by these models.
“Because the training data are cross-sectional (covering one-time period; 1976–2000), our approach also assumes that major vegetation patterns and their response to wildfire should follow the 25-year climate norms bounded by these models.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The relationships between fire and climatic and anthropogenic variables (through fixed coefficients and shape parameter from the negative binomial model) are fixed over time.
“Additionally, our approach assumes that the relationships between fire and climatic and anthropogenic variables (through fixed coefficients and shape parameter from the negative binomial model) are fixed over time.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The shape of the Negative Binomial distribution is fixed over time.
“Additionally, although the use of a Negative Binomial distribution is more flexible than the Poisson distribution, the shape of the distribution is assumed to be fixed over time.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The intensity of lightning strikes is fixed over time.
“Finally, we assume that the intensity of lightning strikes is fixed over time.”

9 of 9

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

Figure 4 gives a different end year for the estimation period
Minor
The Figure 4 caption calls the estimation period 1976-2001, whereas the methods identify it as 1976-2000.
A statistically significant comparison is called not meaningful
Minor
The text cites Model 1 versus Model 2 as an improvement that is not statistically meaningful, but Table 3 reports p = 4.397e-05 for that comparison and marks it significant. The nonsignificant-at-0.05 comparison appears to be Model 2 versus Model 3.
Model 2 worsens estimation-period prediction error
Minor
The stated improvement in prediction error for both periods is not supported for 1976-2000: the absolute area error rises from 694 km2 in Model 1 to 703 km2 in Model 2.

3 of 3

Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-Nested Hypotheses
Vuong, Q. H. (1989) · Econometrica · doi:10.2307/1912557 · Cited by 5,929
Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity.
Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., & Swetnam, T. W. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1128834 · Cited by 5,176
Basic econometrics
Gujarati, D., & Porter, D. C. (2009) · Cited by 3,286
Fire as a global ‘herbivore’: the ecology and evolution of flammable ecosystems
BOND, W., & KEELEY, J. (2005) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2005.04.025 · Cited by 2,484
Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections
Knutti, R., & Sedláček, J. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1716 · Cited by 1,569
The wildland urban interface in the United States
Radeloff, V. C., Hammer, R. B., Stewart, S. I., Fried, J. S., Holcomb, S. S., & McKeefry, J. F. (2005) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/04-1413 · Cited by 1,236
The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth
Bowman, D. M. J. S., Balch, J., Artaxo, P., Bond, W. J., Cochrane, M. A., D’Antonio, C. M., DeFries, R., Johnston, F. H., Keeley, J. E., Krawchuk, M. A., et al. (2011) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02595.x · Cited by 1,230 · cited 2×
“Empirical work in California [1] supports the proposed relationship between fire and human activity and the “pyric transition”–that is, the observation that fire activity initially increases in parallel with increased human influence, but then decreases beyond some point as characteristics of the built urban environme…”
BackgroundSelf-citation
Fire as an evolutionary pressure shaping plant traits
Keeley, J. E., Pausas, J. G., Rundel, P. W., Bond, W. J., & Bradstock, R. A. (2011) · Trends in Plant Science · doi:10.1016/j.tplants.2011.04.002 · Cited by 1,176
Learning to coexist with wildfire
Moritz, M. A., Batllori, E., Bradstock, R. A., Gill, A. M., Handmer, J., Hessburg, P. F., Leonard, J., McCaffrey, S., Odion, D. C., Schoennagel, T., et al. (2014) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature13946 · Cited by 1,169
Self-citation
Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire
Krawchuk, M. A., Moritz, M. A., Parisien, M.-A., Van Dorn, J., & Hayhoe, K. (2009) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005102 · Cited by 1,000
Self-citation

Flagged first, then by citations

Show all 56 references

Research works printed but not linked: 2

J Major, 1967, . Potential evapotranspiration and plant distribution in western states with emphasis on California, AMER ASSOC Adv SCI PUBL, 86
Q VH, 1989, Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and non-nested Hypotheses, Econometrica, 57, 307, 10.2307/1912557 · DOI · Paper page

Sorted by citations

Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests
Abatzoglou, J. T., & Williams, A. P. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1607171113 · Cited by 3,073
Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California
Williams, P., Abatzoglou, J. T., Gershunov, A., Guzman‐Morales, J., Bishop, D. A., Balch, J. K., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2019ef001210 · Cited by 1,166
Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States
Balch, J. K., Bradley, B. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Nagy, R. C., Fusco, E. J., & Mahood, A. L. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1617394114 · Cited by 1,043
Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes
Schoennagel, T., Balch, J. K., Brenkert-Smith, H., Dennison, P. E., Harvey, B. J., Krawchuk, M. A., Mietkiewicz, N., Morgan, P., Moritz, M. A., Rasker, R., et al. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1617464114 · Cited by 774
Self-citation
Global increase in wildfire risk due to climate‐driven declines in fuel moisture
Ellis, T., Bowman, D. M. J. S., Jain, P., Flannigan, M., & Williamson, G. J. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16006 · Cited by 367

See all 151

Authors: Mann, M. L., Batllori, E., Moritz, M. A., Waller, E. K., Berck, P., Flint, A. L., Flint, L. E., & Dolfi, E.
Affiliations: George Washington University (US)
Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia (ES)
University of California, Berkeley (US)
Western Geographic Science Center (US)
United States Geological Survey (US)
Corresponding author: Mann, Michael L.
ORCID: Mann, Michael L.
Batllori, Enric
Moritz, Max A.
Waller, Eric K.
Flint, Alan L.
Flint, Lorraine E.
Venue: PLOS ONE
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Published: 2016-04-28
Volume: 11
Issue: 4
Pages: e0153589
ISSN: 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0153589
PMC: PMC4849771
OpenAlex: W2344471832
Semantic Scholar: 2e7f6394764600db2c7d248ea086af34ed79cc50
Cited by: 151
References: 56
Citations by year: 2026: 8 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 15 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 4
FWCI: 12.85
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: gold
doi.org
Licence: public-domain
creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (vor)
Locations: PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, public-domain)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion, public-domain)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (publishedVersion, public-domain)
RECERCAT (Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya) (publishedVersion, public-domain)
Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Repositori ObertUDL (University of Lleida) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
Funders: Nature Conservancy
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
Keywords: forest fires, anthropogenic impacts, climate change, human activities, California, omitted variable bias, climate models, rainfall patterns, fire regimes
MeSH terms: Anthropology, California, Climate, Disasters, Fires, Humans, Human Activities, Models, Theoretical, Probability, Climate Change

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Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California

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