The DOI matches its Crossref record; 47 of the 56 references it cites were found in a registry or an index, and 9 are not checked yet; none of the 68 sources its claims cite is checked for support yet.
Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California
Open accessAbstract
The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state's fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.
Checked 2026-10-06 · 9 references not checked yet
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This paper develops an empirical wildfire model for California that integrates climate, vegetation, and anthropogenic variables, and finds that human influences substantially improve fire projections. It estimates that burned area will increase by 2.2% to 5.0% by 2050 under two climate models, while omitting anthropogenic variables overstates climatic effects by at least 24%.
Key findings
- Anthropogenic influences account for up to 50% of explanatory power in the model, and in areas such as the Southern California wildland-urban interface they explain around half of total fire count.
- Total burned area is expected to increase by 2.2% under PCM and 5.0% under GFDL by 2050.
- Omitting anthropogenic variables would overstate the importance of climatic variables by at least 24%, and would significantly overstate lightning as an ignition source.
- The final model estimates that each pixel will experience one fire event at most every 30.7 years, and every 377 years at the median; many fire-prone areas near Los Angeles and San Bernardino National Forests experienced an estimated 50% reduction in mean fire return interval from 1951–1975 to 1976–2000.
Methods
- The authors use a zero-inflated negative binomial regression at 1080 m resolution, summarized in 25-year periods, to model fire counts and burned area for California from 1951–2050.
- The model is calibrated on 1976–2000 and validated against 1951–1975, then forecast for 2001–2025 and 2026–2050 under CMIP3 PCM and GFDL climate models under the A2 emissions scenario.
- Ten independent variables cover climate/water balance (AET, CWD), terrain, lightning, housing density, distance to populated places, distance to campgrounds, and public land ownership; five model specifications test natural versus anthropogenic drivers, with regression bagging across 30 subsamples using a 2.5% sampling fraction (N = 7332).
Limitations
- The paper states that it assumes CMIP3 PCM and GFDL A2 bracket future climate conditions, that cross-sectional training data assume vegetation follows 25-year climate norms, and that fixed coefficients and distribution shape over time limit prediction of unobserved non-linear responses.
- It also states that the model does not capture invasive species or pathogens, fuel treatment, severe weather/extreme events, and that historical fire counts are incomplete particularly before 1980; lightning intensity is assumed fixed over time.
- Evident from the text: the use of 25-year means and climate-model averages mutes interannual variability and extreme events, and the model cannot account for specific sequences of drier and wetter years.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The climate only specification (Model 1) does a reasonable job in estimating fire area over California (Table 2), but the inclusion of human drivers of wildfire (Model 2) significantly improves model performance for all statistical indicators (AIC, Log-Likelihood) as well as prediction error for the 1951–1975 and 1976–2000 periods (Table 2).”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Anthropogenic and Climatic Influences on Wildfire
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The climate only specification (Model 1) does a reasonable job in estimating fire area over California (Table 2), but the inclusion of human drivers of wildfire (Model 2) significantly improves model performance for all statistical indicators (AIC, Log-Likelihood) as well as prediction error for the 1951–1975 and 1976–2000 periods (Table 2).”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Anthropogenic and Climatic Influences on Wildfire
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We find that we can reject the null hypothesis that the data are more likely described by the Poisson distribution (p<0.01), strongly supporting the use of Negative Binomial regression.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Pre-Estimation Tests, Specification, and Model Performance
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In the paper
“Finally, we also test model performance against the null model (intercepts only) and reject equality of the models (p<0.01) in favor of the full model.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Pre-Estimation Tests, Specification, and Model Performance
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These same results were also true for the suite of possible indicators of variability for AET, precipitation, and maximum temperature (results not shown).”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Anthropogenic and Climatic Influences on Wildfire
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesThe paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes? Based: unclear- Rests on an assumption: The relationships between fire and its predictors estimated from 1976–2000 remain stationary and valid for forecasting 2001–2050.
In the paper
“We find that we can reject the null hypothesis that the two models are equally close to the actual model in favor of zero-inflation, which is a superior model (p<0.01) [52].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Pre-Estimation Tests, Specification, and Model Performance
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [52] Q VH, 1989, Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and non-nested Hypotheses, Econometrica source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, comparing models 1 and 5 demonstrates that omitting anthropogenic influences significantly overstates the role of lightning as an ignition source, and increases the size coefficients for climate-relevant variables (aetAave and cwdAave) by 24% on average.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Anthropogenic influences on Fire
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesA result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Despite the paramount role of water and energy balances variation for fire occurrence, we do not find evidence that inclusion of measures of inter-annual variability in climatic water deficit, precipitation, or temperature statistically improves model performance.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passes
- It may state two separate claims as one. 34
- Probably not a substantial claim. 25
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The relationships between fire and its predictors estimated from 1976–2000 remain stationary and valid for forecasting 2001–2050.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On the other hand, an estimation for the previous period (1951–1975) indicates that the number of pixels with at least one fire event is underestimated by approximately 1.25%, whereas the number of pixels with zero fires is overestimated by a similar amount.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Anthropogenic and Climatic Influences on Wildfire
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On the other hand, the difference of log likelihood tests and indicators of prediction error suggest that the inclusion of land ownership, a proxy for public vs. private management practices (PublicLand, Model 4), and of human activity in wildlands (CampDist, Model 5), significantly improve the model.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Anthropogenic and Climatic Influences on Wildfire
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Most measures of model performance improve through the addition of inter-annual variability in CWD, which incorporates fluctuations in conditions favorable to fire occurrence (AIC and log-likelihood in Table 2, Model 3) but improvements are not statistically meaningful (Table 3, Model 1 vs 2).”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Anthropogenic and Climatic Influences on Wildfire
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the final model specification (Model 5), the total count of cells that burn zero times is off by less than 0.5% for the 25-year estimation period (1976–2000); the same can be said for cells that burn at least one time over this period.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Anthropogenic and Climatic Influences on Wildfire
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively).”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Abstract
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: The relationships between fire and its predictors estimated from 1976–2000 remain stationary and valid for forecasting 2001–2050.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Looking at the example of the non-linear Ppall specification, it is evident that the likelihood of a false zero declines near populated places. Beyond a turning point around 20km, and with greater distance, the likelihood of a false zero increases.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Model Interpretation
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“On the contrary, due to declines in water availability, a reduction in the number of fire events applies to most urban areas under the PCM scenario, with increases in mFRI throughout the central and coastal south.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Future climate
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our modeling approach suggests that there is a strong anthropogenic influence on mFRI throughout California, with fire activity increasing in public lands, especially those surrounding urban areas, alongside of strong forces promoting fire suppression through firefighting and the physical properties of a dense urban environment.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Anthropogenic influences on Fire
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Our analysis indicates that this may be especially true for the Sierra Nevada where a changing climate could increase the number of fires (with mFRI reducing between 50–150+ years) on the eastern edge (not seen in other models [9,58]) and to a slightly lesser degree (with mFRI reducing 0–100+ years) below the western edge.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
- Not checked yetcites [58] AL Westerling, 2006, CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDFIRE IN AND AROUND CALIFORNIA: FIRE MODELING AND LOSS MODELING
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“But the intensity of fire response to anthropogenic influences varies by ecoregion, with the southwestern part of the state having the strongest human positive influence on fire counts.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Historic Climate
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Across all California, we find increases in the likelihood of fires up to approximately 10 kilometers from a population center, with little influence past 30 kilometers.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Historic Climate
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Model 5 estimates that each pixel will experience one fire event at most every 30.7 years, and every 377 years at the median; in contrast other areas are never expected to burn in a reasonable time frame.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Historic Climate
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, our approach reveals high fire sensitivity to climate projections and thus future uncertainty for most of the coastal influence zones south of Los Angeles.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Smaller reductions in mFRI are forecasted for the Sierra foothills, and for much of the Klamath and Cascade Mountains.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Future climate
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Looking at the effects of elevation, the non-linear specification indicates that increased elevation decreases the likelihood of false zeroes (small fires less often suppressed, greater likelihood of natural ignitions), but the degree of influence decreases rapidly in a logarithmic form.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Model Interpretation
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our model is able to successfully replicate the distribution of observed fires (Fig 2A, Fig B in S1 File) as well as some of their spatiotemporal dynamics across California.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion
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In the paper
“Shifts in climate and the built urban environment are reflected in 2001–2025 GFDL through an increase in the modeled number of years between fires for fuel-limited regions and a decrease in condition-limited areas (Fig 5A, Fig 2C).”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Future climate
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None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Similarly, the total area burned in the state is estimated to increase from somewhere between +15 and 50% [10,15].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Relationships between fire and global population patterns have been identified [16–18]”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [16] W Knorr, 2014, Impact of human population density on fire frequency at the global scale, Biogeosciences source
- Not checked yetcites [17] I Bistinas, 2013, Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales, PLoS One source
- Not checked yetcites [18] A Aldersley, 2011, Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire, Sci Total Environ source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Ongoing expansion of human communities into fire-prone habitats is a primary source of model uncertainties and inter-model variation that needs to be further explored.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Without proper treatment, spatial autocorrelation in the residual leads to the underestimation of standard errors, and therefore biases hypothesis testing.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Sampling, Spatial Autocorrelation, and Estimation
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The spatial downscaling is shown to have no adverse impacts on the estimates of climate, improving the estimates in many cases [29].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Model overview
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [29] Jarvis A, Reuter HI, Nelson A, Guevara E. Hole-filled SRTM for the globe Version 4, available from the CGIAR-CSI SRTM 90m Database [Internet]. 2008. Available: http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is recognized as a robust estimate of vascular plant productivity [45] and can be regarded as a proxy of biomass accumulation and regrowth.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Vegetation amount and flammability
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [45] J Major, 1967, . Potential evapotranspiration and plant distribution in western states with emphasis on California, AMER ASSOC Adv SCI PUBL
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Regressions on the 1976–2000 period are used to calibrate the model, and validated by comparing actual and modeled burn counts for the 1951–1975 period.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Model overview
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“in San Diego County three of every four homes were built within such risk-prone WUI areas [1].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] AD Syphard, 2007, Human influence on California fire regimes, Ecol Appl source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The use of time variant housing density data may allow the model to better simulate the net effects of human ignitions and suppression over time.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Anthropogenic influences
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Since CMIP5 projections are an incremental advance over CMIP3 data [34–36], this does not limit the relevance of our analysis as a tool for assessing anthropogenic influences on future fire activity.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Climate futures
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34] R Knutti, 2013, Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there, Geophys Res Lett source
- Not checked yetcites [35] R Knutti, 2013, Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections, Nat Clim Chang source
- Not checked yetcites [36] C Carroll, 2015, Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change, PLoS One source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These variables also likely correlate with demand for firefighting services and suppression effort.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Anthropogenic influences
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Climatic water deficit (CWD) is the evaporative demand exceeding available soil moisture [45] and can be seen as proxy for conditions favorable for vegetation flammability and wildfire occurrence.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Vegetation amount and flammability
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [45] J Major, 1967, . Potential evapotranspiration and plant distribution in western states with emphasis on California, AMER ASSOC Adv SCI PUBL
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“There is general consensus that fire occurrence will increase with climate change, with the exception of very dry scenarios [13]”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [13] E Batllori, 2013, Climate change-induced shifts in fire for Mediterranean ecosystems, Glob Ecol Biogeogr source
Strength:boosted· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“We apply regression ‘bagging’ techniques to minimize the effect of spatial autocorrelation in model residuals, and to provide more generalizable results, while maintaining an effective sample size for hypothesis testing [9].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Sampling, Spatial Autocorrelation, and Estimation
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Similarly, fire perimeter data can be treated as ‘presence only’ for two reasons: 1) wildfire data is only recorded for observed fires and if they reach a certain threshold for size, and 2) ideal circumstances do not always lead to the presence of wildfire within a given observation period.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Modeling Background
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“in coarse resolution models anthropogenic effects are assumed to manifest primarily through the availability of ignitions [19].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] MA Krawchuk, 2009, Global pyrogeography: the current and future distribution of wildfire, PLoS One source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As such, this type of data suffers from ‘excessive zeros’ and must be handled with a particular suite of models, specifically zero-inflated approaches.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Methods > Modeling Background
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Note that wildfire can also respond to changes in vegetation through non-native introductions, such as the invasive grasses of the Mojave [65], or through invasive pathogens such as sudden oak death [66]. Such processes are unlikely to be captured in our approach.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Modeling Assumptions & Limitations
What the sources say
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Additionally, we do not include the effects of fuel treatment, which have been shown to be effective in some ecosystems [7].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Modeling Assumptions & Limitations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [7] MA Moritz, 2014, Learning to coexist with wildfire, Nature source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The use of GFLD and PCM projections can be thought as contrasted future climatic bookends [9,46,54].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
- Not checked yetcites [46] M Krawchuk, 2011, Constraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient, Ecology source
- Not checked yetcites [54] A Meyn, 2007, Environmental drivers of large, infrequent wildfires: The emerging conceptual model, Prog Phys Geogr source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These changes can be explained by a changing climate but also through the dynamics of human settlements particularly in areas of coastal influence (Fig 3AB).”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, given the relatively small role of natural ignitions in California, this should not greatly influence model outputs.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Modeling Assumptions & Limitations
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The intensity of lightning strikes is fixed over time.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Therefore, any non-linear responses not observed in the sample period cannot be predicted for future periods.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Modeling Assumptions & Limitations
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The relationships between fire and climatic and anthropogenic variables (through fixed coefficients and shape parameter from the negative binomial model) are fixed over time.
In the paper
“Our model uses mean annual variation and does not account for specific sequences of dryer and wetter years, due to the long estimation period and challenges of GCMs in predicting such sequences [23].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [23] MA Moritz, 2012, Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity, Ecosphere source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This implies roughly that ratio between cells with low and high burn frequency remains fixed into the future.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Modeling Assumptions & Limitations
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The shape of the Negative Binomial distribution is fixed over time.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Future changes in climate and the built urban environment are expected to further shift, sometimes in dramatic ways, the spatial patterns of fire frequencies across California.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Such influences extend beyond the reach of simple patterns of anthropogenic ignition and suppression, to include factors like public/private land management practices, introduction of invasive species, and the manipulation of local and regional hydrology.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Conclusions
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The influence of severe weather and extreme events will be masked by both the climate models as well as through the use of 25-year norms in this analysis.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Modeling Assumptions & Limitations
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“That is, given the existence of multiple observations of vegetation types in various stages of succession over the calibration period (1976–2000), for any given level of AET and CWD, the model will assign an average fire response that encompasses such variation.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Modeling Assumptions & Limitations
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This indicates that fires close to population centers are more likely to be both observed and recorded, or potential fires ignited as actual fires.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Model Interpretation
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“This is in line with recent findings of declining future fire probabilities for Mediterranean ecosystems under climate scenarios projecting warmer and drier conditions [13].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [13] E Batllori, 2013, Climate change-induced shifts in fire for Mediterranean ecosystems, Glob Ecol Biogeogr source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This may be reflecting differences between private and public land management associated with the level of suppression and mitigation effort exerted in both landscapes.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Anthropogenic influences on Fire
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:correlational· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✗ Checkable: fails✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This reflects modeled increases in housing density throughout the WUI as well as modeled increases in moisture availability.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Results & Outputs > Future climate
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes? Load-bearing: unclear? Based: unclearIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Other studies point to an increase in the number of wildfires due to increased spring and summer temperatures, early snowmelt, and decreased precipitation [9,56,57].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
- Not checked yetcites [56] AL Westerling, 2006, Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity, Science source
- Not checked yetcites [57] JA Lutz, 2008, Climate, lightning ignitions, and fire severity in Yosemite National Park, California, USA, Int J Wildl Fire source
Strength:plain· not yet calibratedCausal:direct· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✓ Based: passesProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The difference between eastern and western edges may be an indication that the variables (i.e., AET and CWD) used here capture some of the complex interactions of drainage networks and edaphic properties of the area.”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Climatic Controls of Fire
Strength:hedged· not yet calibratedCausal:conditional· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✗ Load-bearing: fails✗ Based: failsProbably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Although humans can have diverse effects on fire regimes (Fig 1), they alter them through three dominant mechanisms: increased ignitions, fire management practices, and the modification of land cover [21].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Anthropogenic influences on Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [21] D Bowman, 2011, The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth, J Biogeogr source
Tests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“For instance, many models drop urban areas from the sample while retaining other systems heavily influenced by humans (e.g. the WUI, federal and state parks) [9,12] or more generally omit anthropogenic variables [10,14].”
§ Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on Fire Activity in California > Discussion > Anthropogenic influences on Fire
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [9] M Krawchuk, 2012, Fire and climate change in California: Changes in the distribution and frequency of fire in climates of the future and recent past (1911–2099)
- Not checked yetcites [12] AL Westerling, 2008, Climate change and wildfire in California, Clim Change source
- Not checked yetcites [10] JM Lenihan, 2003, Climate change effects on vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire in California, Ecol Appl source
- Not checked yetcites [14] C Price, 1994, The impact of a 2xCO2 climate on lightning caused fires, J Clim source
Load-bearingStrength:plain· not yet calibratedTests✓ Asserted: passes✓ Checkable: passes✓ Load-bearing: passes✓ Based: passesIt may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
The influence of housing development and land tenure is largely unknown.
“A key contribution is much improved handling of the effects of housing development and land tenure, the influence of which is largely unknown.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Lightning strike data are representative of the spatial distribution of strikes across all time periods.
“Lightning strike data are treated as time invariant and used for all time periods, assuming thus they are representative of the spatial distribution of strikes.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Data without meaningful historical records and forecasts are representative when treated as time invariant.
“All other data without meaningful historical records and forecasts are treated as time invariant (see Table 1).”
The paper relies on this without support.
The relationships between fire and its predictors estimated from 1976–2000 remain stationary and valid for forecasting 2001–2050.
“Regressions on the 1976–2000 period are used to calibrate the model, and validated by comparing actual and modeled burn counts for the 1951–1975 period. Finally, forecast estimates for the 2001–2025 and 2026–2050 periods are developed under the CMIP3 Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate models under the A2 emissions scenario.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The CMIP3 PCM and GFDL A2 scenarios act as a representative climate envelope that brackets the possible range of future conditions for California.
“First and foremost, we assume that the CMIP3 PCM and GFDL A2 scenarios act as a representative climate envelope that brackets the possible range of future conditions for California (see Forecasting Considerations section).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Major vegetation patterns and their response to wildfire should follow the 25-year climate norms bounded by these models.
“Because the training data are cross-sectional (covering one-time period; 1976–2000), our approach also assumes that major vegetation patterns and their response to wildfire should follow the 25-year climate norms bounded by these models.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The relationships between fire and climatic and anthropogenic variables (through fixed coefficients and shape parameter from the negative binomial model) are fixed over time.
“Additionally, our approach assumes that the relationships between fire and climatic and anthropogenic variables (through fixed coefficients and shape parameter from the negative binomial model) are fixed over time.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The shape of the Negative Binomial distribution is fixed over time.
“Additionally, although the use of a Negative Binomial distribution is more flexible than the Poisson distribution, the shape of the distribution is assumed to be fixed over time.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The intensity of lightning strikes is fixed over time.
“Finally, we assume that the intensity of lightning strikes is fixed over time.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Recent work for California confirms the important role of humans, with anthropogenic variables explaining half of the variability in fire probability over the past four decades (30).”
From Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States (2017) · cites this paper as [30]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Figure 4 gives a different end year for the estimation period
MinorThe Figure 4 caption calls the estimation period 1976-2001, whereas the methods identify it as 1976-2000.
“Grey bars depict the area burned over the historical (1951–1975) and estimation (1976–2001) periods”
“Regressions on the 1976–2000 period are used to calibrate the model”
A statistically significant comparison is called not meaningful
MinorThe text cites Model 1 versus Model 2 as an improvement that is not statistically meaningful, but Table 3 reports p = 4.397e-05 for that comparison and marks it significant. The nonsignificant-at-0.05 comparison appears to be Model 2 versus Model 3.
“improvements are not statistically meaningful (Table 3, Model 1 vs 2).”
“| | Model 1 | 4.397e-05*** | | | |”
Model 2 worsens estimation-period prediction error
MinorThe stated improvement in prediction error for both periods is not supported for 1976-2000: the absolute area error rises from 694 km2 in Model 1 to 703 km2 in Model 2.
“the inclusion of human drivers of wildfire (Model 2) significantly improves model performance for all statistical indicators (AIC, Log-Likelihood) as well as prediction error for the 1951–1975 and 1976–2000 periods (Table 2).”
“| Area km2 Diff (t) | -694 | 703 | 3,400 | 443 | 1,372 |”
Citations
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Batllori, E., Parisien, M., Krawchuk, M. A., & Moritz, M. A. (2013) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.12065 · Cited by 159
Self-citationBiotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change
Carroll, C., Lawler, J. J., Roberts, D. R., & Hamann, A. (2015) · PLOS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0140486 · Cited by 143
Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change
Littell, J. S., McKenzie, D., Kerns, B. K., Cushman, S., & Shaw, C. G. (2011) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es11-00114.1 · Cited by 138
Climate, lightning ignitions, and fire severity in Yosemite National Park, California, USA
Lutz, J. A., van Wagtendonk, J. W., Thode, A. E., Miller, J. D., & Franklin, J. F. (2009) · International Journal of Wildland Fire · doi:10.1071/wf08117 · Cited by 125
Parks, S. A., Parisien, M., Miller, C., & Dobrowski, S. Z. (2014) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0099699 · Cited by 118
Relationships between Human Population Density and Burned Area at Continental and Global Scales
Bistinas, I., Oom, D., Sá, A. C. L., Harrison, S. P., Prentice, I. C., & Pereira, J. M. C. (2013) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0081188 · Cited by 110
Pathways for climate change effects on fire: models, data, and uncertainties
Hessl, A. E. (2011) · Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment · doi:10.1177/0309133311407654 · Cited by 100
Frank, D. A., & Inouye, R. S. (1994) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.2307/2845758 · Cited by 99
Land Use and Wildfire: A Review of Local Interactions and Teleconnections
Butsic, V., Kelly, M., & Moritz, M. (2015) · Land · doi:10.3390/land4010140 · Cited by 95
Self-citationInteracting disturbances: wildfire severity affected by stage of forest disease invasion
Metz, M. R., Frangioso, K. M., Meentemeyer, R. K., & Rizzo, D. M. (2011) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/10-0419.1 · Cited by 94
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Self-citationThorne, J. H., Boynton, R. M., Flint, L. E., & Flint, A. L. (2015) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es14-00300.1 · Cited by 63
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Self-citationMann, M. L., Berck, P., Moritz, M. A., Batllori, E., Baldwin, J. G., Gately, C. K., & Cameron, D. R. (2014) · Land Use Policy · doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.06.020 · Cited by 61
Self-citationGarner, K. L., Chang, M. Y., Fulda, M., Berlin, J., Freed, R., Soohoo, M., Revell, D. L., Ikegami, M., Flint, L. E., Flint, A. L., et al. (2015) · PeerJ · doi:10.7717/peerj.958 · Cited by 53
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND WILDFIRE IN AND AROUND CALIFORNIA: FIRE MODELING AND LOSS MODELING
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Flagged first, then by citations
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Cited by
Sorted by citations
Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests
Abatzoglou, J. T., & Williams, A. P. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1607171113 · Cited by 3,073
Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California
Williams, P., Abatzoglou, J. T., Gershunov, A., Guzman‐Morales, J., Bishop, D. A., Balch, J. K., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2019) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2019ef001210 · Cited by 1,166
Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States
Balch, J. K., Bradley, B. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Nagy, R. C., Fusco, E. J., & Mahood, A. L. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1617394114 · Cited by 1,043
Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes
Schoennagel, T., Balch, J. K., Brenkert-Smith, H., Dennison, P. E., Harvey, B. J., Krawchuk, M. A., Mietkiewicz, N., Morgan, P., Moritz, M. A., Rasker, R., et al. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1617464114 · Cited by 774
Self-citationGlobal increase in wildfire risk due to climate‐driven declines in fuel moisture
Ellis, T., Bowman, D. M. J. S., Jain, P., Flannigan, M., & Williamson, G. J. (2021) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.16006 · Cited by 367
Metadata
- Authors
- Mann, M. L., Batllori, E., Moritz, M. A., Waller, E. K., Berck, P., Flint, A. L., Flint, L. E., & Dolfi, E.
- Affiliations
- George Washington University (US)
- Forest Science and Technology Centre of Catalonia (ES)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Western Geographic Science Center (US)
- United States Geological Survey (US)
- Corresponding author
- Mann, Michael L.
- Venue
- PLOS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2016-04-28
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- e0153589
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4849771
- OpenAlex
- W2344471832
- Semantic Scholar
- 2e7f6394764600db2c7d248ea086af34ed79cc50
- Cited by
- 151
- References
- 56
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 14 · 2024: 13 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 19 · 2020: 13 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 15 · 2017: 13 · 2016: 4
- FWCI
- 12.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- public-domain
- creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (vor)
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- RECERCAT (Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya) (publishedVersion, public-domain)
- Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- LA Referencia (Red Federada de Repositorios Institucionales de Publicaciones Científicas) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Repositori ObertUDL (University of Lleida) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- Funders
- Nature Conservancy
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Rangeland and Wildlife Management
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Forestry › Forest Management and Policy
- Keywords
- forest fires, anthropogenic impacts, climate change, human activities, California, omitted variable bias, climate models, rainfall patterns, fire regimes
- MeSH terms
- Anthropology, California, Climate, Disasters, Fires, Humans, Human Activities, Models, Theoretical, Probability, Climate Change
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-06, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-06 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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