Digital Biomarkers for Depression Screening With Wearable Devices: Cross-sectional Study With Machine Learning Modeling
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Background: Depression is a prevalent mental disorder that is undiagnosed and untreated in half of all cases. Wearable activity trackers collect fine-grained sensor data characterizing the behavior and physiology of users (ie, digital biomarkers), which could be used for timely, unobtrusive, and scalable depression screening. Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the predictive ability of digital biomarkers, based on sensor data from consumer-grade wearables, to detect risk of depression in a working population. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of 290 healthy working adults. Participants wore Fitbit Charge 2 devices for 14 consecutive days and completed a health survey, including screening for depressive symptoms using the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9), at baseline and 2 weeks later. We extracted a range of known and novel digital biomarkers characterizing physical activity, sleep patterns, and circadian rhythms from wearables using steps, heart rate, energy expenditure, and sleep data. Associations between severity of depressive symptoms and digital biomarkers were examined with Spearman correlation and multiple regression analyses adjusted for potential confounders, including sociodemographic characteristics, alcohol consumption, smoking, self-rated health, subjective sleep characteristics, and loneliness. Supervised machine learning with statistically selected digital biomarkers was used to predict risk of depression (ie, symptom severity and screening status). We used varying cutoff scores from an acceptable PHQ-9 score range to define the depression group and different subsamples for classification, while the set of statistically selected digital biomarkers remained the same. For the performance evaluation, we used k-fold cross-validation and obtained accuracy measures from the holdout folds. Results: A total of 267 participants were included in the analysis. The mean age of the participants was 33 (SD 8.6, range 21-64) years. Out of 267 participants, there was a mild female bias displayed (n=170, 63.7%). The majority of the participants were Chinese (n=211, 79.0%), single (n=163, 61.0%), and had a university degree (n=238, 89.1%). We found that a greater severity of depressive symptoms was robustly associated with greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 2 AM and 4 AM and between 4 AM and 6 AM; it was also associated with lower regularity of weekday circadian rhythms based on steps and estimated with nonparametric measures of interdaily stability and autocorrelation as well as fewer steps-based daily peaks. Despite several reliable associations, our evidence showed limited ability of digital biomarkers to detect depression in the whole sample of working adults. However, in balanced and contrasted subsamples comprised of depressed and healthy participants with no risk of depression (ie, no or minimal depressive symptoms), the model achieved an accuracy of 80%, a sensitivity of 82%, and a specificity of 78% in detecting subjects at high risk of depression. Conclusions: Digital biomarkers that have been discovered and are based on behavioral and physiological data from consumer wearables could detect increased risk of depression and have the potential to assist in depression screening, yet current evidence shows limited predictive ability. Machine learning models combining these digital biomarkers could discriminate between individuals with a high risk of depression and individuals with no risk.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This cross-sectional study of 267 working adults using Fitbit Charge 2 and PHQ-9 found several wearable digital biomarkers associated with depressive symptom severity, especially nighttime heart-rate variation and lower weekday circadian rhythm regularity. Machine learning had limited ability to detect depression in the whole sample but achieved 80% accuracy, 82% sensitivity, and 78% specificity in balanced contrasted subsamples.
Key findings
- Greater depressive symptom severity was robustly associated with greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 2 AM and 4 AM and between 4 AM and 6 AM, lower regularity of weekday circadian rhythms based on steps (interdaily stability and autocorrelation), and fewer steps-based daily peaks.
- In fully adjusted models, three digital biomarkers remained consistently associated with symptom severity: weekday steps-based interdaily stability (β=−0.30 per 10% change, 95% CI −0.51 to −0.08, P=.01), weekday steps-based autocorrelation (β=−0.38 per 10% change, 95% CI −0.75 to −0.01, P=.04), and coefficient of variation of nighttime heart rate between 4 AM and 6 AM (β=0.90 per 10% change, 95% CI 0.04-1.78, P=.04).
- Of 126 extracted digital biomarkers, 36 were significantly correlated with average PHQ-9 score (absolute Spearman coefficients 0.12-0.26), and 17 remained significant after false discovery rate correction.
- Whole-sample machine learning performance was poor: for the default PHQ-9 cutoff of ≥10 at either assessment, accuracy was 86% (equal to the no information rate), sensitivity ranged from 3% to 13%, specificity from 98% to 100%, and AUC from 0.51 to 0.66. In balanced contrasted subsamples, the best model achieved 80% accuracy, 82% sensitivity, and 78% specificity; the top 20% versus bottom 20% subsample achieved an AUC of 0.8 with accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 77% each.
Methods
- Cross-sectional study of 290 recruited healthy working adults in Singapore; 267 were included in analysis after exclusions. Participants wore Fitbit Charge 2 devices for at least 14 days and completed PHQ-9 screening at baseline and 2 weeks later.
- The authors extracted 126 digital biomarkers characterizing physical activity, sleep, circadian rhythms, and heart rate from steps, heart rate, energy expenditure, and sleep data. Associations with depressive symptom severity were examined using Spearman correlation with FDR correction and multiple hierarchical linear regression adjusted for sociodemographic, lifestyle, health, sleep, and loneliness covariates.
- Supervised machine learning used extreme gradient boosting (DART) to predict symptom severity and depression screening status. Digital biomarkers were selected by Spearman correlation at different significance levels; performance was evaluated with repeated k-fold cross-validation (4 folds, 25 repeats) and holdout-fold accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC.
Limitations
- The paper states that participants were working adults without diagnosed clinical depression, which may reduce contrast between depressed and healthy participants; PHQ-9 is a self-reported scale with limited accuracy; participants were mostly highly educated university employees with sedentary jobs; the cross-sectional design prevents causal inference; whole-sample predictability was poor; and models retrained on balanced contrasted subsamples probably suffer from overfitting and would perform worse on new samples.
- The text also makes evident that the depressed groups were small (e.g., 38 participants with PHQ-9 ≥10 at either assessment, 22 with ≥8 at both assessments, 42 with average ≥8), and class imbalance was substantial in the whole sample.
- Feature selection for the contrasted-subsample models was performed using the entire sample rather than within each cross-validation fold, which the authors describe as a way to avoid arbitrary feature sets but which may still limit generalizability.
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- Findingown data
38 out of 267 (14.2%) participants had PHQ-9 scores of ≥10 at either of the two assessments and were identified as depressed.
“In total, 38 out of 267 (14.2%) participants had PHQ-9 scores of ≥10 at either of the two assessments and were identified as depressed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Participants experienced an overall decrease in depressive symptoms over the 2-week period.
“However, participants experienced an overall decrease in depressive symptoms over time; for example, 20 participants with moderate (score 10-14) depressive symptoms at the first assessment shifted to the mild range (score 5-9) at the second assessment, while just 5 participants with mild symptoms at the first assessment appeared to have moderate symptoms at the second assessment.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
A total of 267 participants were included in the analysis.
“A total of 267 participants were included in the analysis.”
- Also stated in: § Characteristics of the Data and Participants · plain
“The final sample comprised of 267 participants with 14 days of tracking data, on average; the participant flowchart is presented in Multimedia Appendix 4.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Characteristics of the Data and Participants · plain
- Findingown data
PHQ-9 scores at the two assessments are highly and linearly correlated (r=0.73, P<.001).
“PHQ-9 scores are highly and linearly correlated (r=0.73, P<.001), showing that the change in depressive symptoms over time is quite smooth and gradual rather than quick and sharp.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Only 8 participants had PHQ-9 scores of ≥10 at both assessments.
“Hence, using the widely adopted cutoff score of ≥10 for both assessments significantly reduced the prevalence rate of depressed participants: only 8 participants had PHQ-9 scores of ≥10 at both assessments.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingown data
22 (8.2%) participants had scores of ≥8 at both assessments.
“First, a meta-analysis by Manea et al [59] showed that a PHQ-9 cutoff score of ≥8 also has acceptable screening properties; in our sample, there were 22 (8.2%) participants who had scores of ≥8 at both assessments.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For the default cutoff point, the sensitivity range was 3% to 13%.
“For the default cutoff point (ie, either baseline or follow-up PHQ-9 score of ≥10), the accuracy of the models in holdout folds was 86% (equal to the no information rate 86%), the sensitivity range was 3% to 13%, the specificity range was 98% to 100%, and the AUC range was 0.51 to 0.66 (Table 6, models A1-C1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For the second cutoff point, the specificity was 100%.
“For the second cutoff point option (ie, both baseline and follow-up PHQ-9 scores of ≥8), the accuracy of the models in holdout folds was 92% (no information ratio 92%), the sensitivity range was 0% to 5%, the specificity was 100%, and the AUC range was 0.54 to 0.67 (Table 6).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Adding sociodemographic characteristics did not substantially improve performance of symptom-severity prediction models.
“Adding sociodemographic characteristics did not substantially improve performance (Table 5, models A2-C2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For the second cutoff point, the sensitivity range was 0% to 5%.
“For the second cutoff point option (ie, both baseline and follow-up PHQ-9 scores of ≥8), the accuracy of the models in holdout folds was 92% (no information ratio 92%), the sensitivity range was 0% to 5%, the specificity was 100%, and the AUC range was 0.54 to 0.67 (Table 6).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For the default cutoff point (either baseline or follow-up PHQ-9 score ≥10), the accuracy of the models in holdout folds was 86% (equal to the no information rate 86%).
“For the default cutoff point (ie, either baseline or follow-up PHQ-9 score of ≥10), the accuracy of the models in holdout folds was 86% (equal to the no information rate 86%), the sensitivity range was 3% to 13%, the specificity range was 98% to 100%, and the AUC range was 0.51 to 0.66 (Table 6, models A1-C1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
42 (15.7%) participants had an average PHQ-9 score ≥8.
“Second, given the linearity of PHQ-9 change over time, we used an average PHQ-9 score of ≥8 as another criterion; 42 (15.7%) participants had an average PHQ-9 score ≥8.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Models with correlation-based feature selection outperformed all models trained without statistical feature selection.
“Among these models, the model with heart rate metrics had the best accuracy, sensitivity, and AUC—70%, 71%, and 72%, respectively—and the model with nonparametric circadian rhythm metrics had the best specificity of 76% (see Table S9 in Multimedia Appendix 1); however, models with correlation-based feature selection outperformed all of these models.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Excluding participants with midrange (borderline) PHQ-9 scores results in a larger difference between groups and increases the discriminatory power of digital biomarkers.
- Findingown data
Correlation analysis revealed that 36 digital biomarkers were significantly associated with the average PHQ-9 score.
“Correlation analysis revealed that 36 digital biomarkers were significantly associated with the average PHQ-9 score—absolute coefficients of Spearman rank correlation were weak and varied from 0.12 to 0.26—and only 17 of them remained significant predictors after the FDR correction (Table 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
Using more conservative feature selection criteria consistently resulted in better performance compared to less conservative criteria.
“Similar to the previous step of modeling, using more conservative feature selection criteria consistently resulted in better performance compared to the less conservative criteria.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In contrasted subsamples of provisionally depressed participants and healthy participants with no risk of depression, the model achieved a sensitivity of 82% in detecting subjects at high risk of depression.
“a sensitivity of 82%”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In contrasted subsamples of provisionally depressed participants and healthy participants with no risk of depression, the model achieved a specificity of 78% in detecting subjects at high risk of depression.
“a specificity of 78%”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Greater severity of depressive symptoms is associated with fewer steps-based daily peaks.
“We found that a greater severity of depressive symptoms was robustly associated with greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 2 AM and 4 AM and between 4 AM and 6 AM; it was also associated with lower regularity of weekday circadian rhythms based on steps and estimated with nonparametric measures of interdaily stability and autocorrelation as well as fewer steps-based daily peaks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Across trained symptom-severity prediction models, the range of average MAE in holdout samples was 2.54 to 2.63.
“The range of mean correlations between actual and predicted PHQ-9 scores across trained models was 0.14 to 0.27 (R2=0.03-0.08), the range of mean RMSE was 3.10 to 3.20, and the range of average MAE in holdout samples was 2.54 to 2.63 (Table 5, models A1-C1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For the third cutoff point (average PHQ-9 score ≥8), the accuracy range of the models in holdout folds was 85% to 87% (no information ratio 84%).
“Finally, for the third cutoff point option (ie, average PHQ-9 score of ≥8), the accuracy range of the models in holdout folds was 85% to 87% (no information ratio 84%), the sensitivity range was 2% to 24%, the specificity range was 97% to 100%, and the AUC range was 0.62 to 0.74 (Table 6).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Despite several reliable associations, the evidence showed limited ability of digital biomarkers to detect depression in the whole sample of working adults.
“Despite several reliable associations, our evidence showed limited ability of digital biomarkers to detect depression in the whole sample of working adults.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For the third cutoff point, the AUC range was 0.62 to 0.74.
“Finally, for the third cutoff point option (ie, average PHQ-9 score of ≥8), the accuracy range of the models in holdout folds was 85% to 87% (no information ratio 84%), the sensitivity range was 2% to 24%, the specificity range was 97% to 100%, and the AUC range was 0.62 to 0.74 (Table 6).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Adding sociodemographic characteristics did not improve classification accuracy for depression screening.
“Adding sociodemographic characteristics did not improve classification accuracy (Table 6, models A2-C2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For the default cutoff point, the AUC range was 0.51 to 0.66.
“For the default cutoff point (ie, either baseline or follow-up PHQ-9 score of ≥10), the accuracy of the models in holdout folds was 86% (equal to the no information rate 86%), the sensitivity range was 3% to 13%, the specificity range was 98% to 100%, and the AUC range was 0.51 to 0.66 (Table 6, models A1-C1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingreasoning
In general, the accuracy of models predicting severity of depressive symptoms and depression screening status based on digital biomarkers in the whole sample was poor.
“In general, the accuracy of models predicting severity of depressive symptoms and depression screening status based on digital biomarkers in the whole sample was poor, probably indicating a significant heterogeneity of data within groups of depressed and healthy participants.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Applying more conservative feature selection criteria, including digital biomarkers most correlated to the outcome, showed relatively better results compared to less conservative criteria and including digital biomarkers less correlated to the outcome.
“However, applying more conservative feature selection criteria, including digital biomarkers most correlated to the outcome, showed relatively better results compared to the less conservative criteria and including digital biomarkers less correlated to the outcome.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Greater severity of depressive symptoms is robustly associated with greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 4 AM and 6 AM.
“We found that a greater severity of depressive symptoms was robustly associated with greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 2 AM and 4 AM and between 4 AM and 6 AM; it was also associated with lower regularity of weekday circadian rhythms based on steps and estimated with nonparametric measures of interdaily stability and autocorrelation as well as fewer steps-based daily peaks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Across trained symptom-severity prediction models, the range of mean RMSE was 3.10 to 3.20.
“The range of mean correlations between actual and predicted PHQ-9 scores across trained models was 0.14 to 0.27 (R2=0.03-0.08), the range of mean RMSE was 3.10 to 3.20, and the range of average MAE in holdout samples was 2.54 to 2.63 (Table 5, models A1-C1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The absolute Spearman rank correlation coefficients between the 36 digital biomarkers and average PHQ-9 score were weak, ranging from 0.12 to 0.26.
“Correlation analysis revealed that 36 digital biomarkers were significantly associated with the average PHQ-9 score—absolute coefficients of Spearman rank correlation were weak and varied from 0.12 to 0.26—and only 17 of them remained significant predictors after the FDR correction (Table 3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
These associations (lower regularity of heart rate circadian rhythm, fewer steps-based daily peaks, greater steepness of heart rate rhythm curve, later sleep midpoint, greater variation of sleep offset time) were less reliable and became nonsignificant in regression models with covariates.
“Additionally, we found that lower regularity of heart rate circadian rhythm, fewer steps-based daily peaks, greater steepness of the heart rate rhythm curve, later sleep midpoint, and greater variation of sleep offset time were associated with a greater severity of depressive symptoms, yet these associations were less reliable and became nonsignificant in regression models with covariates.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Heart rate variation between 4 AM and 6 AM was positively associated with PHQ-9 scores in the fully adjusted model (β=0.90 per 10% change, 95% CI 0.04-1.78, P=.04).
“Heart rate variation between 4 AM and 6 AM was positively associated with PHQ-9 scores (β=0.90 per 10% change, 95% CI 0.04-1.78, P=.04)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For the third cutoff point, the sensitivity range was 2% to 24%.
“Finally, for the third cutoff point option (ie, average PHQ-9 score of ≥8), the accuracy range of the models in holdout folds was 85% to 87% (no information ratio 84%), the sensitivity range was 2% to 24%, the specificity range was 97% to 100%, and the AUC range was 0.62 to 0.74 (Table 6).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Greater severity of depressive symptoms was associated with lower regularity of weekday circadian activity rhythms based on steps and measured with nonparametric measures of IS and autocorrelation.
“We found that greater severity of depressive symptoms was robustly associated with greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 4 AM and 6 AM; it was also associated with lower regularity of weekday circadian activity rhythms based on steps and measured with nonparametric measures of IS and autocorrelation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Only 17 of the 36 digital biomarkers remained significant predictors of average PHQ-9 score after FDR correction.
“Correlation analysis revealed that 36 digital biomarkers were significantly associated with the average PHQ-9 score—absolute coefficients of Spearman rank correlation were weak and varied from 0.12 to 0.26—and only 17 of them remained significant predictors after the FDR correction (Table 3).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Only three digital biomarkers-weekday steps-based IS, autocorrelation based on 15-minute intervals, and CV of heart rate between 4 AM and 6 AM-were consistently associated with symptom severity independent of all confounders (including alcohol consumption, smoking, self-rated health, loneliness, and subjective sleep characteristics).
“Only three digital biomarkers—weekday steps–based IS, autocorrelation (based on 15-minute intervals), and CV of heart rate between 4 AM and 6 AM—were consistently associated with symptom severity independent of all confounders, which additionally included alcohol consumption, smoking, self-rated health, loneliness, and subjective sleep characteristics (Table 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Greater severity of depressive symptoms was robustly associated with greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 4 AM and 6 AM.
“We found that greater severity of depressive symptoms was robustly associated with greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 4 AM and 6 AM; it was also associated with lower regularity of weekday circadian activity rhythms based on steps and measured with nonparametric measures of IS and autocorrelation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Similar performance was achieved across all models trained using alternative contrasted subsamples.
“Similar performance has been achieved across all models trained using alternative contrasted subsamples.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Greater severity of depressive symptoms is associated with lower regularity of weekday circadian rhythms based on steps, estimated with autocorrelation.
“We found that a greater severity of depressive symptoms was robustly associated with greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 2 AM and 4 AM and between 4 AM and 6 AM; it was also associated with lower regularity of weekday circadian rhythms based on steps and estimated with nonparametric measures of interdaily stability and autocorrelation as well as fewer steps-based daily peaks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Greater severity of depressive symptoms is associated with lower regularity of weekday circadian rhythms based on steps, estimated with interdaily stability.
“We found that a greater severity of depressive symptoms was robustly associated with greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 2 AM and 4 AM and between 4 AM and 6 AM; it was also associated with lower regularity of weekday circadian rhythms based on steps and estimated with nonparametric measures of interdaily stability and autocorrelation as well as fewer steps-based daily peaks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In contrasted subsamples of provisionally depressed participants and healthy participants with no risk of depression, the model achieved an accuracy of 80% in detecting subjects at high risk of depression.
“the model achieved an accuracy of 80%”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For the second cutoff point, the AUC range was 0.54 to 0.67.
“For the second cutoff point option (ie, both baseline and follow-up PHQ-9 scores of ≥8), the accuracy of the models in holdout folds was 92% (no information ratio 92%), the sensitivity range was 0% to 5%, the specificity was 100%, and the AUC range was 0.54 to 0.67 (Table 6).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Our evidence showed limited ability of digital biomarkers to detect depression in the whole sample of working adults.
“Despite several reliable associations, our evidence showed limited ability of digital biomarkers to detect depression in the whole sample of working adults.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Autocorrelation (based on 15-minute intervals) was negatively associated with PHQ-9 scores in the fully adjusted model (β=−0.38 per 10% change, 95% CI −0.75 to −0.01, P=.04).
“for autocorrelation: β=−0.38 per 10% change, 95% CI −0.75 to −0.01, P=.04”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Across trained symptom-severity prediction models, the range of R2 was 0.03 to 0.08.
“The range of mean correlations between actual and predicted PHQ-9 scores across trained models was 0.14 to 0.27 (R2=0.03-0.08), the range of mean RMSE was 3.10 to 3.20, and the range of average MAE in holdout samples was 2.54 to 2.63 (Table 5, models A1-C1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Weekday steps-based IS was negatively associated with PHQ-9 scores in the fully adjusted model (β=−0.30 per 10% change, 95% CI −0.51 to −0.08, P=.01).
“for IS in the fully adjusted model: β=−0.30 per 10% change, 95% CI −0.51 to −0.08, P=.01”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Greater severity of depressive symptoms is robustly associated with greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 2 AM and 4 AM.
“We found that a greater severity of depressive symptoms was robustly associated with greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 2 AM and 4 AM and between 4 AM and 6 AM; it was also associated with lower regularity of weekday circadian rhythms based on steps and estimated with nonparametric measures of interdaily stability and autocorrelation as well as fewer steps-based daily peaks.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Physical activity metrics were not associated with PHQ-9 scores.
“Physical activity metrics were not associated with PHQ-9 scores.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Across trained symptom-severity prediction models, the range of mean correlations between actual and predicted PHQ-9 scores was 0.14 to 0.27.
“The range of mean correlations between actual and predicted PHQ-9 scores across trained models was 0.14 to 0.27 (R2=0.03-0.08), the range of mean RMSE was 3.10 to 3.20, and the range of average MAE in holdout samples was 2.54 to 2.63 (Table 5, models A1-C1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For the default cutoff point, the specificity range was 98% to 100%.
“For the default cutoff point (ie, either baseline or follow-up PHQ-9 score of ≥10), the accuracy of the models in holdout folds was 86% (equal to the no information rate 86%), the sensitivity range was 3% to 13%, the specificity range was 98% to 100%, and the AUC range was 0.51 to 0.66 (Table 6, models A1-C1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Effects of these digital biomarkers on symptom severity were stable and independent of all confounders including strong predictors of depression, such as sleep quality and loneliness.
“Effects of these digital biomarkers on symptom severity were stable and independent of all confounders including strong predictors of depression, such as sleep quality and loneliness.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For the second cutoff point (both baseline and follow-up PHQ-9 scores ≥8), the accuracy of the models in holdout folds was 92% (no information ratio 92%).
“For the second cutoff point option (ie, both baseline and follow-up PHQ-9 scores of ≥8), the accuracy of the models in holdout folds was 92% (no information ratio 92%), the sensitivity range was 0% to 5%, the specificity was 100%, and the AUC range was 0.54 to 0.67 (Table 6).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For the third cutoff point, the specificity range was 97% to 100%.
“Finally, for the third cutoff point option (ie, average PHQ-9 score of ≥8), the accuracy range of the models in holdout folds was 85% to 87% (no information ratio 84%), the sensitivity range was 2% to 24%, the specificity range was 97% to 100%, and the AUC range was 0.62 to 0.74 (Table 6).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingnone given
Regularity of circadian rhythm and variation of nighttime heart rate were the most robust digital biomarkers.
“Regularity of circadian rhythm and variation of nighttime heart rate were the most robust digital biomarkers”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Greater severity of depressive symptoms was associated with fewer steps-based daily peaks.
“we first showed that a greater severity of depressive symptoms was associated with a fewer steps-based daily peaks”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Our data did not show reduced levels of locomotor activity in depressed participants in terms of less time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity, fewer daily steps, or more sedentary time.
“our data did not show reduced levels of locomotor activity in depressed participants in terms of less time spent in moderate to vigorous physical activity, fewer daily steps, or more sedentary time.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Weekday circadian rhythms were stronger predictors than rhythms based on all days.
“Second, we analyzed weekday circadian rhythms separately that were found to be stronger predictors rather than rhythms based on all days.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 2 AM and 4 AM and between 4 AM and 6 AM indicates greater severity of depressive symptoms.
“our findings suggest that a greater variation of nighttime heart rate between 2 AM and 4 AM and between 4 AM and 6 AM indicates greater severity of depressive symptoms”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Findingown data
A lower steps-based weekday IS was robustly associated with a greater severity of depressive symptoms independent of confounders.
“we found that a lower steps-based weekday IS—a nonparametric measure of rhythm regularity—was robustly associated with a greater severity of depressive symptoms independent of confounders”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked - Findingown data
Our best model had 9% higher sensitivity (82% vs 73%) than the model of Tazawa et al.
“Although our best model had 9% higher sensitivity (82% vs 73%)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [33] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data
Later sleep midpoint and offset time were associated with more severe depressive symptoms.
“the analysis of sleep data showed that later sleep midpoint and offset time were associated with more severe depressive symptoms”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked - Findingown data
Steps-based autocorrelation during weekdays was robustly correlated to symptom severity independent of all confounders.
“we also found steps-based autocorrelation during weekdays—a complementary and alternative nonparametric measure of rhythm regularity—to be robustly correlated to symptom severity independent of all confounders.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
The set of selected digital biomarkers used in the retrained models remained the same as in models with the full data set.
“the set of selected digital biomarkers used in these models remained the same as in models with the full data set.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductown data
277 of 290 participants (95.5%) had at least 10 days with enough data.
“A total of 77.7% (4025/5180) of days contained at least 20 hours of complete data; however, only 277 participants out of 290 (95.5%) had at least 10 days with enough data (see Table S1 in Multimedia Appendix 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The change in depressive symptoms over the 2-week period is smooth and gradual rather than quick and sharp.
“PHQ-9 scores are highly and linearly correlated (r=0.73, P<.001), showing that the change in depressive symptoms over time is quite smooth and gradual rather than quick and sharp.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
77.7% of days contained at least 20 hours of complete data.
“A total of 77.7% (4025/5180) of days contained at least 20 hours of complete data; however, only 277 participants out of 290 (95.5%) had at least 10 days with enough data (see Table S1 in Multimedia Appendix 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
A meta-analysis by Manea et al showed that a PHQ-9 cutoff score of ≥8 has acceptable screening properties.
“First, a meta-analysis by Manea et al [59] showed that a PHQ-9 cutoff score of ≥8 also has acceptable screening properties; in our sample, there were 22 (8.2%) participants who had scores of ≥8 at both assessments.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [59] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation
Patients with depression are significantly less physically active than healthy controls.
“Systematic reviews and meta-analyses of actigraphy studies demonstrated that patients with depression were significantly less physically active than healthy controls [15,16].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Study design and conductown data
Mean compliance with wearing the activity tracker was 84.8% (SD 10.4).
“The mean compliance with wearing the activity tracker among participants within the observation period was 84.8% (SD 10.4), whereas the total fraction of complete data was 84.0% (6,265,469 minutes of complete data from 5180 days).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Close interrelationships between everyday behavior, physiology, and mental well-being make digital phenotyping with wearables attractive for detection of mental disorders.
“Close interrelationships between everyday behavior, physiology, and mental well-being makes digital phenotyping with wearables especially attractive for detection of mental disorders and discovering respective digital biomarkers [8-11].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked - Interpretationreasoning
Having a PHQ-9 score of ≥10 at any time point means that the score at an adjacent time point is likely to be comparable in magnitude.
“Having a PHQ-9 score of ≥10 at any time point means that the score at an adjacent time point is likely to be comparable in magnitude.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The poor accuracy probably indicates significant heterogeneity of data within groups of depressed and healthy participants.
“In general, the accuracy of models predicting severity of depressive symptoms and depression screening status based on digital biomarkers in the whole sample was poor, probably indicating a significant heterogeneity of data within groups of depressed and healthy participants.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
The performance of models classifying the outcome of depression screening was relatively better when the third cutoff point (average PHQ-9 score ≥8) was applied.
“Thus, the performance of models classifying the outcome of depression screening was relatively better when the third cutoff point was applied.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Using feature selection on the entire sample allows mitigation of overgeneralization that is possible in skewed samples.
“This allows us to mitigate overgeneralization that is possible in skewed samples, because models were trained with digital biomarkers inferred from the entire sample.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Participants with lower stability of circadian activity rhythms had more severe depressive symptoms.
“so participants with lower stability of circadian activity rhythms had more severe symptoms.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
A greater magnitude of heart rate variation between 4 AM and 6 AM indicated higher PHQ-9 scores.
“where a greater magnitude of heart rate variation indicated higher PHQ-9 scores.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
In this study, using statistical analysis and machine learning, some known and novel digital biomarkers based on behavioral and physiological data from consumer wearables could indicate increased risk of depression in a multiethnic working population.
“In this study, using statistical analysis and machine learning, we demonstrated that some known and novel digital biomarkers based on behavioral and physiological data from consumer wearables could indicate increased risk of depression in a multiethnic working population.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Excluding participants with midrange (borderline) PHQ-9 scores results in a larger difference between groups and increases the discriminatory power of digital biomarkers.
- Interpretationown data
Machine learning models combining these digital biomarkers could discriminate between individuals with a high risk of depression and individuals with no risk.
“Machine learning models combining these digital biomarkers could discriminate between individuals with a high risk of depression and individuals with no risk.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Novel rhythm stability metrics-autocorrelation and ICV-have value as risk markers of depression.
“Third, we showed the value of novel rhythm stability metrics—autocorrelation and ICV—as risk markers of depression.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
The study included a relatively long period of continuous sensing and activity tracking in free-living settings.
“Strengths of our study include a relatively long period of continuous sensing and activity tracking in free-living settings”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
Predictive models based on a combination of these digital biomarkers could quite accurately discriminate individuals with a high risk of depression from individuals with no risk.
“Thus, predictive models based on a combination of these digital biomarkers could quite accurately discriminate individuals with a high risk of depression from individuals with no risk.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductnone given
The study used a relatively large workplace-based sample.
“a relatively large workplace-based sample”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationcitation
An increased arousal of the autonomic nervous system that is possible with depression is likely to affect heart rate dynamics during sleep.
“an increased arousal of autonomic nervous system that is possible with depression is likely to affect heart rate dynamics during sleep [56].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [56] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data
People with more severe depressive symptoms tended to have less stable circadian activity rhythms.
“In general, results of our study together with previous evidence demonstrated that people with more severe depressive symptoms tended to have less stable circadian activity rhythms.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Nonparametric indicators appear more robust and sensitive to indicate depressive symptomatology in nonclinical samples than cosinor-based metrics.
“Perhaps this supports the advantage of nonparametric indicators over cosinor-based metrics, where the former appear more robust and sensitive to indicate depressive symptomatology in nonclinical samples.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
The predictive model based on a combination of these digital biomarkers could discriminate individuals with high risk of depression from individuals with no risk.
“The predictive model based on a combination of these digital biomarkers could discriminate individuals with high risk of depression from individuals with no risk.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Some known and novel digital biomarkers based on data from consumer wearables could indicate increased risk of depression in the working population.
“This study showed that some known and novel digital biomarkers based on data from consumer wearables could indicate increased risk of depression in the working population.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
The absence of participants with clinical depression might cause a lack of contrast in behavioral and physiological data between depressed and healthy participants, which impedes discovery of reliable digital biomarkers.
“The absence of participants with clinical depression might cause a lack of contrast in behavioral and physiological data between depressed and healthy participants, which impedes discovery of reliable digital biomarkers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationcitation
The poor predictability of depressive symptomatology in the whole sample highlights a possible limitation of using this set of digital biomarkers alone for depression screening universally due to prominent interindividual differences and heterogeneity in naturalistic settings.
“the poor predictability of depressive symptomatology in the whole sample highlights a possible limitation, in principle, of using this set of digital biomarkers alone for depression screening universally due to prominent interindividual differences and heterogeneity that appear in naturalistic settings [36].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [36] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 33
- May combine two claims. 28
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingnone givenIn total, we extracted 126 digital biomarkers.
“In total, we extracted 126 digital biomarkers.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAmong models trained without statistical feature selection but with different feature subsets, the model with heart rate metrics had the best accuracy, sensitivity, and AUC-70%, 71%, and 72%, respectively-and the model with nonparametric circadian rhythm metrics had the best specificity of 76%.
“Among these models, the model with heart rate metrics had the best accuracy, sensitivity, and AUC—70%, 71%, and 72%, respectively—and the model with nonparametric circadian rhythm metrics had the best specificity of 76% (see Table S9 in Multimedia Appendix 1); however, models with correlation-based feature selection outperformed all of these models.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Excluding participants with midrange (borderline) PHQ-9 scores results in a larger difference between groups and increases the discriminatory power of digital biomarkers.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe model based on the subsample comprised of the top 20% and bottom 20% of participants by average PHQ-9 score achieved the highest AUC of 0.8, with accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity values of 77% each.
“Alternatively, the model based on the subsample comprised of the top 20% and bottom 20% of participants by average PHQ-9 score achieved the highest AUC of 0.8, and had accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity values of 77% each (Table 7 and Figure 3, C and D).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Excluding participants with midrange (borderline) PHQ-9 scores results in a larger difference between groups and increases the discriminatory power of digital biomarkers.
The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataThe digital biomarker heart rate variation between 4 AM and 6 AM correlated with depressive symptoms independent of sleep offset time.
“This digital biomarker correlated to depressive symptoms independent of sleep offset time, which might cause greater variation (Table S3 in Multimedia Appendix 1).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe best model, based on the contrasted subsample with default cutoff point (either baseline or follow-up PHQ-9 score ≥10), correctly predicted depression screening status in 80% of participants from holdout folds, with sensitivity 82% and specificity 78%.
“The best model was based on the contrasted subsample with default cutoff point (ie, either baseline or follow-up PHQ-9 score of ≥10) and has correctly predicted the depression screening status in 80% of participants from holdout folds, with a sensitivity of 82% and a specificity of 78% (Table 7 and Figure 3, A and B).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- The authors state this as an assumption: Excluding participants with midrange (borderline) PHQ-9 scores results in a larger difference between groups and increases the discriminatory power of digital biomarkers.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataSubsamples mainly did not differ from the whole sample in terms of sociodemographic characteristics, with two exceptions: the second subsample had a slightly younger age, and the fourth subsample did not have a gender bias.
“Subsamples mainly did not differ from the whole sample in terms of sociodemographic characteristics, with two exceptions: the second subsample had a slightly younger age, and the fourth subsample did not have a gender bias (see Tables S5 to S8 in Multimedia Appendix 1).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIn balanced and contrasted subsamples of depressed and healthy participants with no risk of depression, the model achieved an accuracy of 80%, a sensitivity of 82%, and a specificity of 78% in detecting subjects at high risk of depression.
“However, in balanced and contrasted subsamples comprised of depressed and healthy participants with no risk of depression (ie, no or minimal depressive symptoms), the model achieved an accuracy of 80%, a sensitivity of 82%, and a specificity of 78% in detecting subjects at high risk of depression.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataSeverity of depressive symptoms was correlated with variation in nighttime heart rate in several time intervals, regularity of circadian rhythms measured with nonparametric and cosinor measures, daily peaks, and timing and variation in sleep offset and midpoint.
“Severity of depressive symptoms was correlated to variation in nighttime heart rate in several time intervals, regularity of circadian rhythms measured with nonparametric and cosinor measures, daily peaks, and timing and variation in sleep offset and midpoint.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims. The quote only partly states this claim.
Findingown dataLower regularity of heart rate circadian rhythm, fewer steps-based daily peaks, greater steepness of the heart rate rhythm curve, later sleep midpoint, and greater variation of sleep offset time were associated with a greater severity of depressive symptoms.
“Additionally, we found that lower regularity of heart rate circadian rhythm, fewer steps-based daily peaks, greater steepness of the heart rate rhythm curve, later sleep midpoint, and greater variation of sleep offset time were associated with a greater severity of depressive symptoms, yet these associations were less reliable and became nonsignificant in regression models with covariates.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataRhythm stability metrics based on heart rate were correlated to severity of depressive symptoms, but these associations became nonsignificant in fully adjusted regression models.
“Rhythm stability metrics based on heart rate were also correlated to severity of depressive symptoms, yet these associations became nonsignificant in fully adjusted regression models.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataShortened sleep duration, increased SOL, lower SE, and longer WASO were not related to more severe depressive symptoms.
“we did not find that shortened sleep duration, increased SOL, lower SE, and longer WASO were related to more severe symptoms”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAmong cosinor-based metrics, lower pseudo-F statistic values and later acrophase, both based on steps and heart rate, were associated with more severe symptoms, but these correlations became nonsignificant after FDR correction and in multiple regression analysis.
“our data indicated lower pseudo-F statistic values and later acrophase, both based on steps and heart rate, in participants with more severe symptoms, which is consistent with existing evidence [22,23,25,26,29,30], yet these correlations became nonsignificant after the FDR correction and in multiple regression analysis.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 6 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataOur data did not show a relationship with cosinor-based metrics estimating the level of activity, including mesor and rhythm amplitude, or with nonparametric measures, including M10, L5, and RA.
“our data did not show a relationship with cosinor-based metrics estimating the level of activity, including mesor and rhythm amplitude [24,25], or with nonparametric measures, including M10, L5, and RA.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationDepression remains undiagnosed and untreated in half of all cases.
“Despite its high prevalence, depression remains undiagnosed and untreated in half of all cases [2,3].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [2] source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [3] Kohn, R, 2004, Bull World Health Organ
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationSleep-staging Fitbit devices, such as the Charge 2, show no significant difference in measured values of WASO, TST, and SE, but slightly underestimate SOL in comparison to the gold standard PSG.
“According to a recent meta-analysis, sleep-staging Fitbit devices, such as the Charge 2, showed no significant difference in measured values of WASO, TST, and SE, but they slightly underestimated SOL in comparison to the gold standard PSG [45].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [45] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe study protocol and informed consent form were approved by the NTU Institutional Review Board.
“The study protocol and informed consent form were approved by the NTU Institutional Review Board (application reference: RB-2016-03-033).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationFitbit devices are likely to provide accurate measures of daily step counts.
“According to a systematic review [42], studies have consistently indicated that Fitbit devices were likely to provide accurate measures of daily step counts.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [42] source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
PremisecitationPeople with clinically significant depressive symptoms have lower interdaily stability (IS) and higher intradaily variability (IV) of circadian activity rhythm.
“Few studies using nonparametric rhythm measures demonstrated that participants with more severe depressive symptoms had lower interdaily stability (IS) and higher intradaily variability (IV) of circadian activity rhythm [31,34], reduced relative amplitude (RA) between the highest and the lowest activity levels [28,35], and reduced RA of skin temperature [36].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenFor the performance evaluation, we used k-fold cross-validation and obtained accuracy measures from the holdout folds.
“For the performance evaluation, we used k-fold cross-validation and obtained accuracy measures from the holdout folds.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataAssociations between severity of depressive symptoms and digital biomarkers were examined with multiple regression analyses adjusted for potential confounders including sociodemographic characteristics, alcohol consumption, smoking, self-rated health, subjective sleep characteristics, and loneliness.
“Associations between severity of depressive symptoms and digital biomarkers were examined with Spearman correlation and multiple regression analyses adjusted for potential confounders, including sociodemographic characteristics, alcohol consumption, smoking, self-rated health, subjective sleep characteristics, and loneliness.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenWe collected a range of covariates to control for possible confounders.
“We collected a range of covariates to control for possible confounders.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationThe false discovery rate (FDR) was used for multiple testing correction of P values.
“The false discovery rate (FDR) was used for multiple testing correction of P values [57].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [57] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationSleep-stage transition dynamics measured by Fitbit devices are inaccurate compared to PSG.
“Also sleep-stage transition dynamics measured by Fitbit devices were found to be inaccurate compared to PSG [46].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [46] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationPhysical activity has a protective effect against the future onset of depression.
“Meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies showed that physical activity had a protective effect against the future onset of depression [17], while sedentary time increased the risk of depression [18].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [17] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown dataThe total fraction of complete data was 84.0%.
“The mean compliance with wearing the activity tracker among participants within the observation period was 84.8% (SD 10.4), whereas the total fraction of complete data was 84.0% (6,265,469 minutes of complete data from 5180 days).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Premisenone givenThe first stream of evidence from actigraphy and PSG studies lacks research on the predictive ability of various metrics to assess the risk of depression.
“The first stream of evidence from actigraphy and PSG studies lacks research on the predictive ability of various metrics to assess the risk of depression, whereas the other stream of data-driven studies often ignores established risk markers and leaves associations between depressive symptomatology and wearable data uninterpreted.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationWearable activity trackers are increasingly widely used.
“Wearable activity trackers are increasingly widely used and provide an opportunity to harness sensor data for detection of different health conditions [7].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [7] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataParticipants were excluded due to outlying heart rate (n=1), exceeding average steps (n=4), and insufficient sleep data (n=5).
“Further, we identified and excluded outliers: 1 participant was excluded due to outlying heart rate, 4 participants were excluded due to exceeding average steps, and another 5 participants were excluded due to insufficient sleep data with less than three nights on weekdays.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationSedentary time increases the risk of depression.
“Meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies showed that physical activity had a protective effect against the future onset of depression [17], while sedentary time increased the risk of depression [18].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [18] source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
PremisecitationExtreme gradient boosting algorithm (DART) was the most efficient method in similar studies.
“Extreme gradient boosting algorithm (DART [Dropouts meet Multiple Additive Regression Trees]) was used for model training, as it was the most efficient method in similar studies [33,37,58].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [33] source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [37] source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [58] OlsonRSCavaWLMustahsanZVarikAMooreJHData-driven advice for applying machine learning to bioinformatics problemsProceedings of the Pacific Symposium on Biocomputing 20182018Pacific Symposium on Biocomputing 2018January 3-7, 2018Big Island, Hawaii192203 source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationDepressive symptoms are associated with increased heart rate in the night and morning hours.
“Depressive symptoms were also associated with heart rate–based mesor [32] and amplitude [32] as well as increased heart rate in the night and morning hours [33].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [33] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationEnergy expenditure is less accurately estimated by Fitbit devices.
“However, energy expenditure is less accurately estimated by Fitbit devices.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Premisenone givenThe other stream of data-driven studies often ignores established risk markers and leaves associations between depressive symptomatology and wearable data uninterpreted.
“The first stream of evidence from actigraphy and PSG studies lacks research on the predictive ability of various metrics to assess the risk of depression, whereas the other stream of data-driven studies often ignores established risk markers and leaves associations between depressive symptomatology and wearable data uninterpreted.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenWe used validated self-report questionnaires for depression screening and to collect sociodemographic, lifestyle, and health characteristics.
“We used validated self-report questionnaires for depression screening and to collect sociodemographic, lifestyle, and health characteristics.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenFor performance evaluation of these models, stratified repeated cross-validation with 4 folds and 25 repeats was used.
“For performance evaluation of these models, we used stratified repeated cross-validation with 4 folds and 25 repeats.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningFeature selection for the contrasted subsample models was done using the entire sample, and selected digital biomarkers remained the same for all models.
“Importantly, feature selection for these models was done using the entire sample (ie, selected digital biomarkers were based on statistical associations found in the entire sample, not in subsamples, and remained the same for all models).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataDigital biomarkers based on behavioral and physiological data from consumer wearables could detect increased risk of depression and have the potential to assist in depression screening, yet current evidence shows limited predictive ability.
“Digital biomarkers that have been discovered and are based on behavioral and physiological data from consumer wearables could detect increased risk of depression and have the potential to assist in depression screening, yet current evidence shows limited predictive ability.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
PremisecitationPatients with major depression have elevated nocturnal body temperature, increased cortisol, lower melatonin, and lower norepinephrine levels.
“It has been documented that patients with major depression have elevated nocturnal body temperature, increased cortisol, lower melatonin, and lower norepinephrine levels [70,71].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationDisturbed rest-activity rhythms lead to desynchronization of internal molecular clocks, thereby disturbing circadian biochemical processes, secretion of hormones, metabolic functions, and physiological parameters.
“Existing evidence shows that disturbed rest-activity rhythms, as, for example, in shift workers, lead to desynchronization of internal molecular clocks, thereby disturbing circadian biochemical processes, secretion of hormones, metabolic functions, and physiological parameters [66-68].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checkedMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe key novel approach in this study, compared to existing efforts, was the use of data from widespread consumer wearables and the use of circadian rhythm metrics as digital biomarkers in predictive modeling with machine learning.
“the key novel approach in our study, as compared to existing efforts, was the use of data from widespread consumer wearables and the use of circadian rhythm metrics as digital biomarkers in predictive modeling with machine learning.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe study used correction for multiple testing in statistical analysis.
“use of correction for multiple testing in statistical analysis”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationThe relationships between depression and circadian rhythms in behavior and physiology are probably bidirectional.
“The relationships between depression and circadian rhythms in behavior and physiology are probably bidirectional”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checkedClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningFewer steps-based daily peaks reflect fewer distinct activities happening over a day, indicating a diagnostic symptom of anhedonia.
“which perhaps reflects fewer distinct activities happening over a day, indicating a diagnostic symptom of anhedonia (ie, loss of interest in activities).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationDisturbed master clocks at the molecular level could lead to neurobiological dysfunction that may generate depressive mood.
“In turn, disturbed master clocks at the molecular level could lead to neurobiological dysfunction that may generate depressive mood [69].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [69] source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe ability to adherently follow weekday routine better discriminates between depressed and healthy individuals, with healthy people demonstrating greater regularity.
“Although weekday rhythm is mainly determined by work routine, the ability to adherently follow this routine better discriminates between depressed and healthy individuals, where healthy people demonstrated a greater regularity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe study used a wide range of covariates for model adjustments in regression analysis.
“use of a wide range of covariates for model adjustments in regression analysis”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe study used cross-validation with multiple resampling in machine learning modeling.
“use of cross-validation with multiple resampling in machine learning modeling”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Interpretationnone givenParticipants were mostly highly educated university employees with sedentary jobs who might have specific psycho-behavioral characteristics.
“our participants were mostly highly educated university employees with sedentary jobs who might have specific psycho-behavioral characteristics.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenThe digital biomarkers used were only metrics that meaningfully characterize everyday behavior and human physiology relevant to depressive disorder, avoiding extraction of a multitude of uninterpretable features and black box approaches.
“we used only metrics that meaningfully characterize everyday behavior and human physiology relevant to depressive disorder, avoiding extraction of a multitude uninterpretable features and black box approaches.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationnone givenThe study population was working adults who represent the generally healthy population and had not been diagnosed with depression.
“we studied working adults who represent the generally healthy population and had not been diagnosed with depression.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningPredictive models retrained using balanced and contrasted subsamples probably suffer from overfitting and would perform worse on new samples.
“predictive models were retrained using balanced and contrasted subsamples equally comprised of depressed participants and healthy participants with no risk of depression; therefore, they probably suffer from overfitting and would perform worse on new samples.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe cross-sectional design of the study does not allow causal inferences.
“the cross-sectional design of the study does not allow causal inferences.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
The sample of full-time employees at Nanyang Technological University is representative of the working population in Singapore.
“In a cross-sectional study, we collected data from a multiethnic working population in Singapore. A total of 290 adult volunteers (aged ≥21 years) among full-time employees of Nanyang Technological University (NTU) were recruited to participate in the study from August to October 2019.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The 2-week observation period is sufficient to capture stable behavioral and physiological patterns relevant to depression.
“Participants responded to online questionnaires and wore activity trackers for at least 14 days.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Excluding participants with midrange (borderline) PHQ-9 scores results in a larger difference between groups and increases the discriminatory power of digital biomarkers.
“We believe that excluding participants with midrange (ie, borderline) PHQ-9 scores results in the larger difference between groups and, therefore, increases the discriminatory power of digital biomarkers.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Participants with zero PHQ-9 scores may have responded dishonestly.
“We excluded participants with zero scores (n=24) due to concerns in honesty of their responses to minimize the bias in self-reported outcome.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The use of digital technologies for depression, including telehealth and telemedicine, also increased during the pandemic; patients with depression were three times more likely to use telehealth than those without.
“The use of digital technologies for depression, including telehealth and telemedicine, also increased during the pandemic; patients with depression were three times more likely to use telehealth than those without.68,69”
From Digital health technologies and major depressive disorder (2023) · cites this paper as [68]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Good and very good health counts are reversed in Table 1
MinorThe text assigns 124 participants to "good" health and 105 to "very good"; Table 1 assigns those counts to the opposite categories.
“most participants rated their health as “good” (n=124, 46.4%) or “very good” (n=105, 39.3%)”
“| | Good | 105 (46.4) | | | | Very good | 124 (39.3) | |”
The ≥8 depression group is labeled "either assessment" instead of "both"
MinorThe text defines the 22-person group as scoring ≥8 at both assessments, but the model tables label that same 22-person group as scoring ≥8 at assessment 1 or 2. The latter definition would include at least the 38 participants reported to have scored ≥10 at either assessment.
“PHQ-9 score of ≥8 at assessment 1 or 2 (n=22 in depressed group)”
“there were 22 (8.2%) participants who had scores of ≥8 at both assessments.”
Included complete minutes are not 83.7% of complete data
MinorThe included 5,464,248 minutes are 87.21% of the 6,265,469 complete minutes reported, not 83.7%. The stated 801,221 discarded minutes account for the remaining 12.79%.
Reported 83.7 · recomputed 87.212115
“Thus, 5,464,248 minutes of complete data from 3948 days in total (83.7%) were included for further analysis, and 801,221 minutes of complete data (12.8%) were discarded.”
Cites
Controlling the False Discovery Rate: A Practical and Powerful Approach to Multiple Testing
Benjamini, Y., & Hochberg, Y. (1995) · Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B: Statistical Methodology · doi:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1995.tb02031.x · Cited by 109,482 · see citing works
The Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index: a new instrument for psychiatric practice and research
Buysse, D. J., Reynolds, C. F., Monk, T. H., Berman, S. R., & Kupfer, D. J. (1989) · Psychiatry Research · doi:10.1016/0165-1781(89)90047-4 · Cited by 35,234 · see citing works
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- Authors
- Rykov, Y., Thach, T.-Q., Bojic, I., Christopoulos, G., & Car, J.
- Affiliations
- Nanyang Technological University (SG)
- Corresponding author
- Car, Josip
- Venue
- JMIR mHealth and uHealth
- Publisher
- JMIR Publications Inc.
- Published
- 2021-10-25
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- e24872
- ISSN
- 2291-5222 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8576601
- OpenAlex
- W3183239414
- Semantic Scholar
- 9339f94fff102dedeb9db3c60c1fd7397d06c51b
- Cited by
- 151
- References
- 73
- Citations by year
- 2026: 37 · 2025: 47 · 2024: 27 · 2023: 20 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 3
- FWCI
- 15.04
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- cc-by
- Locations
- JMIR mhealth and uhealth (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- The HKU Scholars Hub (University of Hong Kong) (publishedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- DR-NTU (Nanyang Technological University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Digital Mental Health Interventions
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Mental Health Research Topics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition › Context-Aware Activity Recognition Systems
- Keywords
- depression screening, digital biomarkers, wearable activity trackers, Fitbit, PHQ-9, depressive symptoms, circadian rhythm, sleep patterns, physical activity, energy expenditure, machine learning prediction, working adults, loneliness
- MeSH terms
- Machine Learning, Fitness Trackers, Adult, Cross-Sectional Studies, Depression, Female, Humans, Middle Aged, Biomarkers, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-10.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-10.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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