The DOI matches its Crossref record; 108 of the 108 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 35 of the 114 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems
Open accessAbstract
Ecosystem productivity in coastal ocean upwelling systems is threatened by climate change. Increases in spring and summer upwelling intensity, and associated increases in the rate of offshore advection, are expected. While this could counter effects of habitat warming, it could also lead to more frequent hypoxic events and lower densities of suitable-sized food particles for fish larvae. With upwelling intensification, ocean acidity will rise, affecting organisms with carbonate structures. Regardless of changes in upwelling, near-surface stratification, turbulent diffusion rates, source water origins, and perhaps thermocline depths associated with large-scale climate episodes (ENSO) maybe affected. Major impacts on pelagic fish resources appear unlikely unless couples with overfishing, although changes toward more subtropical community composition are likely. Marine mammals and seabirds that are tied to sparsely distributed nesting or resting grounds could experience difficulties in obtaining prey resources, or adaptively respond by moving to more favorable biogeographic provinces.
Overview
AI snapshot
Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This review synthesizes anticipated climate-change effects on the four major eastern boundary upwelling systems, emphasizing likely intensification of upwelling-favorable winds and offshore advection alongside warming, stratification, hypoxia, and acidification. It concludes that pelagic fish impacts may be limited unless coupled with overfishing, while seabirds and marine mammals tied to fixed nesting or resting sites may be especially vulnerable.
Key findings
- Increased spring and summer upwelling intensity and offshore advection are expected; this could partially counter habitat warming but may also lead to more frequent hypoxic events and lower densities of suitable-sized food particles for fish larvae. Ocean acidity is expected to rise with upwelling intensification, affecting organisms with carbonate structures.
- A meta-analysis cited by the review confirms a general pattern of increasing reports of positive trends in upwelling-favorable wind intensity in a majority of upwelling regions (California, Benguela, and Humboldt) during recent decades. Hadley Cells are predicted to expand poleward, with the Northern Hemisphere Hadley Cell decreasing in intensity and the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell increasing.
- The hypoxic boundary (dissolved oxygen 60 μM/kg) shoaled by up to 80 m over 1984–2006 in the Southern California Bight; the northern California Current has seen increased frequency and severity of hypoxic events and occasional water-column anoxia on the inner continental shelf, with dead zones observed on the Oregon shelf. Methane/hydrogen sulfide eruptions near Namibia have extended over more than 20,000 km² of ocean surface.
- The relationship between upwelling and small pelagic fish production is thought to be dome-shaped (optimal environmental window), with moderate upwelling maximizing production. Major impacts on pelagic fish resources appear unlikely unless coupled with overfishing, although shifts toward more subtropical community composition are likely; seabirds and marine mammals tied to sparsely distributed nesting or resting grounds could struggle to obtain prey or move to more favorable biogeographic provinces.
Methods
- Design: brief review and conceptual synthesis, not a primary data-collection study.
- Data/sample: focuses on the four principal eastern boundary upwelling systems—Benguela, Canary/Iberian, Peru-Humboldt, and California Current.
- Main analysis: narrative synthesis of general circulation model projections, observational time series, regional downscaling studies, a meta-analysis of the Bakun Hypothesis, and ecological hypotheses such as the optimal environmental window and match-mismatch.
Limitations
- Stated: confident prediction is elusive in complex-adaptive marine ecosystems; high intrinsic EBUS variability may make future responses exceed historical/millennial ranges; GCMs have no consensus on future ENSO, PDO, NAO, or AMO statistics; Bakun Hypothesis tests with large grid-scale models have mixed results and may depend on model resolution; acidification projections remain uncertain due to insufficient fine-scale atmosphere-ocean dynamics; marine mammals are less intensively studied than seabirds; methane eruption importance beyond the Benguela system has not been examined; and the interplay among stratification, source-water depth/origin, and upwelling wind strength is unresolved.
- Stated: the review is explicitly brief and relies on “informed speculation” and a conceptual template rather than confident prediction.
- Evident from the text: many impacts are qualitative or hypothesized, and the authors do not present new empirical data or their own formal model ensemble or quantitative uncertainty analysis; several conclusions depend on cited meta-analyses and models.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
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Claims the paper makes
57 Own interpretation · 26 No full text of the sources · 16 Partly supported · 9 Supported so far · 8 Sources not found · 5 Not checked yet · 4 Supported · 2 No basis given · 1 Not supported · 1 Couldn’t confirm · accuracy not yet measured
At least one cited source doesn’t support this claim or points to a different paper, and none confirmed it — see the verdicts below.
In the paper
“though a recent meta-analysis demonstrated that redistributions have been well documented only for fish [33].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Seabirds and Marine Mammals
What the sources say
- Disputedcites [33] Poloczanska ES, Brown CJ, Sydeman WJ, et al. Global imprint of climate change on marine life. Nat Clim Chang. 2013;3:919–25. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The paper’s “Changes in phenology and distribution” section describes documented range expansions of intertidal invertebrates as well as shifts in flatfish. Its “Community composition” section also analyzes distribution-shift rates for several non-fish groups. The claim that redistributions have been well documented only for fish is therefore contrary to the paper’s account. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Disputed
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“The Hadley Cells are predicted to expand poleward in both hemispheres, and observational evidence indicates this has already begun to occur [7,8].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Predicted Physical Changes
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [7] Lu J, Vecchi GA, Reichler T. Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys Res Lett. 2007;34:L06805. source
- Supportedcites [8] Seager R, Naik N, Vecchi GA. Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J Clim. 2010;23:4651–68. source
Section 5 describes projected twenty-first-century circulation changes on the poleward flanks of the subtropics in both hemispheres and relates them to poleward Hadley-cell expansion. The conclusions likewise describe that expansion as projected. This supports the quoted prediction; the separate observational claim is not part of the claim being assessed. (LLM, conf=0.90)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“These small pelagic fish species often comprise a substantial portion of the total animal biomass in EBUS, and fluctuations in their abundance have both top-down and bottom-up effects [5], serving as a key trophic control for large populations of higher trophic-level seabirds, marine mammals, and a variety of commercially important fish.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Introduction
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [5] Schwartzlose RA, Alheit J, Bakun A, et al. Worldwide large-scale fluctuations of sardine and anchovy populations. S Afr J Mar Sci. 1999;21:289–347. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The South-Eastern Pacific section describes very large sardine and anchovy catches in the Humboldt system, and Consequences for Ecosystem Functioning says a few forage-fish species can dominate energy transfer. Neither passage establishes what proportion of total animal biomass these fish comprise across eastern boundary upwelling systems. (LLM, conf=0.78)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“In the Canary/Iberian EBUS, variation in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) impact these ecosystems [21].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Predicted Physical Changes
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [21] Pérez FF, Padin XA, Pazos Y, et al. Plankton response to weakening of the Iberian coastal upwelling. Glob Change Biol. 2010;16:1258–67. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The paper’s Abstract (page not provided) links weakening Iberian upwelling with the North Atlantic Oscillation and reports resulting ecosystem changes. Our copy does not link those changes to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (searched: “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation,” “AMO,” and “multidecadal”), so it supports only the NAO portion of the claim. (LLM, conf=0.87)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Finally, predictions of physical change are complicated by basin-scale modes of climate variability at interannual to decadal scales that strongly impact upwelling intensity and ocean conditions.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Predicted Physical Changes
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [20] Shannon LV, Boyd AJ, Brundrit GB, Tauntonclark J. On the existence of an El Niño-type phenomenon in the Benguela System. J Mar Res. 1986;44:495–520. source
- Partly supportedcites [21] Pérez FF, Padin XA, Pazos Y, et al. Plankton response to weakening of the Iberian coastal upwelling. Glob Change Biol. 2010;16:1258–67. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract links weakening Iberian upwelling with changes in sea-level pressure and a correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation. A discussion passage says large-scale atmospheric modes can produce differing local sea-surface-temperature effects. These passages support climate variability affecting upwelling and ocean conditions, but do not establish interannual-to-decadal timescales or strong effects across EBUS generally. Page numbers were not supplied for these passages. (LLM, conf=0.84)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [6] Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, et al. Technical summary. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, et al., editors. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2013.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [22] Collins M, An S-I, Cai W, et al. The impact of global warming on the tropical Pacific ocean and El Niño. Nat Geosci. 2010;3:391–7. source
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“The Hadley Cells are predicted to expand poleward in both hemispheres, and observational evidence indicates this has already begun to occur [7,8].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Predicted Physical Changes
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [7] Lu J, Vecchi GA, Reichler T. Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming. Geophys Res Lett. 2007;34:L06805. source
- Could not verifycites [8] Seager R, Naik N, Vecchi GA. Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming. J Clim. 2010;23:4651–68. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 5 discusses a modeled change from the twentieth to the twenty-first century, and the Conclusions describe Hadley-cell expansion as projected. Searches for observed or already-occurring expansion found no passage in our copy reporting observational evidence that the cells have begun expanding in both hemispheres. (LLM, conf=0.74)
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“although simulations done with finer spatial resolution climate models of the California system offer evidence that representation of the BH dynamics may be dependent on model resolution [18,19].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Predicted Physical Changes
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [18] Mote PW, Mantua NJ. Coastal upwelling in a warmer future. Geophys Res Lett. 2002;29:2138. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results and Discussion (§3, paragraph 12) report substantial differences between two models in upwelling winds off western North America, so the paper supports model-dependent representation of coastal upwelling. It does not compare finer and coarser spatial resolutions or show that representation of BH dynamics depends on resolution. (LLM, conf=0.76)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [19] Snyder MA, Sloan LC, Diffenbaugh NS, Bell JL. Future climate change and upwelling in the California Current. Geophys Res Lett. 2003;30:1823–6. source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“For many fish species, the greatest risk from climate change may operate during larval and/or juvenile stages, when survival and recruitment are strongly dependent on having sufficient planktonic food resources at the right time and place [23][24][25][26][27].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Biophysical Responses
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [23] Cushing DH. Plankton production and year-class strength in fish populations—an update of the match-mismatch hypothesis. Adv Mar Biol. 1990;26:249–93. source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [24] Landeira JM, Lozando-Soldevilla F, Hernandez-León S. Temporal and alongshore distribution of decapod larvae in the oceanic island of Gran Canaria (NW Africa). J Plankton Res. 2012;35:309–22. source
- Partly supportedcites [25] Grémillet D, Lewis S, Drapeau L, et al. Spatial match-mismatch in the Benguela upwelling zone: should we expect chlorophyll and sea-surface temperature to predict marine predator distributions? J Appl Ecol. 2008;45:610–21. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The “Mismatch of Zooplankton and Pelagic Fish” section (p. 9) identifies planktonic food availability at spawning sites as a possible influence on fish condition and egg production, and discusses whether juveniles reach nursery areas and recruit. It does not establish that larval or juvenile survival depends strongly on plankton arriving at the right time and place, or that these stages pose the greatest climate-change risk for many fish species. (LLM, conf=0.82)
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“large-scale ocean circulation could advect these modified deep waters into EBUS [54].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Hypoxia, Dead Zones, and Acidification
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [54] Deutsch C, Emerson S, Thompson L. Fingerprints of climate change in North Pacific oxygen. Geophys Res Lett. 2005;32:L16604. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results (§3, paragraph 16) describe oxygen-modified water moving through the North Pacific thermocline, and the Summary (§4, paragraph 18) attributes some oxygen variability to water-mass transport. Those passages support circulation carrying modified water, but they do not describe deep waters being advected into eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS). (LLM, conf=0.86)
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Partly supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Other species, such as Humboldt squid, which have migrated north into the California Current in recent years [63]”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Hypoxia, Dead Zones, and Acidification
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [63] Stewart JS, Hazen EL, Foley DG, Bograd SJ, Gilly WF. Marine predator migration during range expansion: Humboldt squid (Dosidicus gigas) in the northern California Current system. Mar Ecol Prog Ser. 2012;471:135–50. source
The Introduction states that Humboldt squid underwent a major range expansion in the northern California Current System during the preceding decade. The paper also describes their range extending north from Mexico to California and beyond, supporting the paraphrase. (LLM, conf=0.93)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Supported
- It may state two separate claims as one. 34
- Probably not a substantial claim. 28
- Not yet classified. 1
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“the Northern Hemisphere Hadley Cell is predicted to decrease in intensity while that of the Southern Hemisphere will increase in intensity [9].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Predicted Physical Changes
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [9] Ma J, Xie S-P. Regional patterns of sea surface temperature change: a source of uncertainty in future projections of precipitation and atmospheric circulation. J Clim. 2013;26:2482–501. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The AGCM sensitivity experiments section reports a weakening of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation and slight strengthening of the Southern Hemisphere cell in the CMIP3 ensemble mean. But the Conclusions and discussion section says the change near and south of the equator is weak and subject to large intermodel variability, so an unqualified prediction that the Southern Hemisphere cell will intensify overstates the source. Page numbers are not available in the supplied passages. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“These small pelagic fish species often comprise a substantial portion of the total animal biomass in EBUS, and fluctuations in their abundance have both top-down and bottom-up effects [5], serving as a key trophic control for large populations of higher trophic-level seabirds, marine mammals, and a variety of commercially important fish.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Introduction
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [5] Schwartzlose RA, Alheit J, Bakun A, et al. Worldwide large-scale fluctuations of sardine and anchovy populations. S Afr J Mar Sci. 1999;21:289–347. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
In “Consequences for Ecosystem Functioning,” the paper describes sardine and anchovy as a link between plankton and predators and says abundance shifts may affect both lower and higher trophic levels. “Impacts on seabirds” gives examples of effects on birds. The cited passages do not establish the claim’s more specific trophic-control role for marine mammals or commercially important predatory fish, and the paper frames the broader effects as expected rather than established in every case. (LLM, conf=0.84)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“This idea was originally supported by emerging interregional patterns of observed sea-surface wind stress, and has been periodically tested against time series of observed data in all four regional EBUS [12,13].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Predicted Physical Changes
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [12] Barton ED, Field DB, Roy C. Canary current upwelling: more or less? Prog Oceanogr. 2013;116:167–78. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Partly supportedcites [13] Cropper TE, Hanna E, Bigg GR. Spatial and temporal seasonal trends in coastal upwelling off Northwest Africa, 1981–2012. Deep-Sea Res Pt I. 2014;86:94–111. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“It is still unclear how these future shifts in the Hadley Cell might impact the ocean high-pressure systems [6], which are major drivers of upwelling winds and appear to be largely responsible for their variability [10].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Predicted Physical Changes
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [6] Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, et al. Technical summary. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, et al., editors. Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2013.
- Supportedcites [10] García-Reyes M, Sydeman WJ, Black BA, et al. Relative influence of oceanic and terrestrial pressure systems in driving upwelling-favorable winds. Geophys Res Lett. 2013;40:5311–5. source
The Abstract states that oceanic high-pressure systems dominate variability in upwelling-favorable winds, particularly in winter. It also notes an exception: oceanic highs and continental thermal lows have equal influence on Benguela summer winds. (LLM, conf=0.91)
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Some modeling studies [e.g., 44] also suggest that the increase in upwelling-favorable winds could effectively counteract enhanced thermal stratification.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Offshore Transport
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [44] Auad G, Miller A, Di Lorenzo E. Long term forecast of oceanic conditions off California and biological implications. J Geophys Res. 2006;111:C09008. source
The Discussion and Conclusion (section 4, paragraph 25) says increased upwelling-favorable wind stress and wind stress curl overcome the unfavorable effect of increased stratification. The model also forecasts increased spring upwelling velocities despite a warmer, more stratified upper ocean, matching the citing sentence’s qualified claim. (LLM, conf=0.94)
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Model experiments tracing the history of these waters in the North Pacific indicate that they are subducted from the surface layer at locations well offshore of the EBUS and may remain at depth for decades prior to being upwelled, in the meantime accumulating remineralized nutrients and carbon dioxide while oxygen is being consumed by respiration [51].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Offshore Transport
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [51] Rykaczewski RR, Dunne JP. Enhanced nutrient supply to the California Current ecosystem with global warming and increased stratification in an earth system model. Geophys Res Lett. 2010;37. L21606. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“Upper ocean warming could increase water column stratification [37][38][39], potentially counteracting the effects of intensifying upwelling-favorable winds by reducing the efficacy of coastal upwelling to deliver nutrients to the euphotic zone.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Offshore Transport
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [37] Sarmiento JL, Hughes TMC, Stouffer RJ, Manabe S. Simulated response of the ocean carbon cycle to anthropogenic climate warming. Nature. 1998;393:245–9. source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [38] Roemmich D, McGowan J. Climatic warming and the decline of zooplankton in the California Current. Science. 1995;267:1324–6. source
- Supportedcites [39] Palacios DM, Bograd SJ, Mendelssohn R, Schwing FB. Long-term and seasonal trends in stratification in the California Current, 1950–1993. J Geophys Res. 2004;109:C10016. source
The Summary and Conclusions (§5, ¶35) link long-term warming with enhanced stratification. The Biological Implications section (§4.3, ¶28) also describes near-surface warming leading to increased stratification and reduced input of nutrient-rich water. These passages support the warming–stratification point to which the citation is attached. (LLM, conf=0.92)
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“A long-term trend toward declining oxygen content in the southern California Current has been observed, with the hypoxic boundary (defined as the depth at which dissolved oxygen is 60 uM/kg) shoaling by up to 80 m over the period 1984-2006 in the Southern California Bight [55,56].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Hypoxia, Dead Zones, and Acidification
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [55] Bograd SJ, Castro CG, Di Lorenzo E, Palacios DM, Bailey H, Gilly W, et al. Oxygen declines and the shoaling of the hypoxic boundary in the California Current. Geophys Res Lett. 2008;35:L12607. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Abstract reports declining dissolved oxygen in the southern California Current over 1984–2006. Section 3, paragraph 9, reports that the hypoxic boundary shoaled within the Southern California Bight, but gives a maximum of 90 m, not the claimed 80 m. (LLM, conf=0.90)
- Partly supportedcites [56] McClatchie S, Goericke R, Cosgrove R, Auad G, Vetter R. Oxygen in the Southern California bight: multidecadal trends and implications for demersal fisheries. Geophys Res Lett. 2010;37:L19602. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 3.1, paragraphs [12–13], reports declining oxygen and a shoaling hypoxic zone in recent decades. It recounts Bograd et al.’s finding of up to 80 m of shoaling, but this paper’s own estimate is 65 m inshore. The paper defines hypoxia using 1.5 ml L−1, not the claimed 60 µM/kg boundary, and its time series ends in 2007 rather than 2006. (LLM, conf=0.88)
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“although this decline has been attributed primarily to a change in the abundance of pelagic tunicates [42,43].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Offshore Transport
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [42] Lavaniegos BE, Ohman MD. Long-term changes in pelagic tunicates of the California Current. Deep-Sea Res Pt II. 2003;50:2473–98. source
- Supportedcites [43] Lavaniegos BE, Ohman MD. Coherence of long-term variations of zooplankton in two sectors of the California Current system. Prog Oceanogr. 2007;75:42–69. source
The Discussion (§4.1) says the long-term decline in pelagic tunicates, particularly salps, accounted for the principal biomass variations measured by zooplankton displacement volume. The Conclusions (§5) likewise say this decline explains the previously documented decline in displacement volume. The paper distinguishes that measure from organic-carbon biomass, for which it found no long-term decline. (LLM, conf=0.92)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Related to the concept of spring transition, upwelling winds in the California Current occur in distinct winter and summer seasonal Bmodes,^each with unique atmospheric drivers [10] and differential impacts on biological processes, as documented in rockfish (Sebastes spp.) growth and seabird reproductive success [85].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Trophic Interactions, Match-Mismatch, and Phenological Responses
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [10] García-Reyes M, Sydeman WJ, Black BA, et al. Relative influence of oceanic and terrestrial pressure systems in driving upwelling-favorable winds. Geophys Res Lett. 2013;40:5311–5. sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [85] Black BA, Schroeder ID, Sydeman WJ, Bograd SJ, Wells BK, Schwing FB. Winter and summer upwelling modes and their relevance to climate impacts and ecological response in the California Current ecosystem. Glob Chang Biol. 2011;17:2536–45. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“and has been applied to cod stocks in the North Sea [90] as well as salmon and seabirds in California [82,91].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Commercially Important Fish Populations
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [90] Beaugrand G, Brander KM, Lindley JA, Souissi S, Reid PC. Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea. Nature. 2003;426:661–4. source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [82] Sydeman WJ, Bradley RW, Warzybok P, et al. Planktivorous auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus responses to ocean climate, 2005: unusual atmospheric blocking? Geophys Res Lett. 2006;33:L22S09. source
- Supportedcites [91] Dorman JG, Powell TM, Sydeman WJ, Bograd SJ. Advection and starvation cause krill (Euphausia pacifica) decreases in 2005 Northern California coastal populations: implications from a model study. Geophys Res Lett. 2011;38:L04605. source
The Introduction (§1, paragraph 3; page not provided) describes hypothesized mismatches between krill availability and both coastal seabirds and juvenile salmon in California. The North Sea cod portion has a separate citation and is not attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.92)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“In another example, delayed transition to upwelling is hypothesized to have resulted in a temporal mismatch between arrival of coho salmon smolts at sea and food production from upwelling [92].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Commercially Important Fish Populations
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [92] Logerwell EA, Mantua N, Lawson PW, Francis RC, Agostini VN. Tracking environmental processes in the coastal zone for understanding and predicting Oregon coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) marine survival. Fish Oceanogr. 2003;12:554–68. source
The Conceptual model proposes that a mismatch between the onset of upwelling and smolt migration could leave smolts without favourable habitat on arrival at sea. The Discussion states more specifically that a later spring transition may contribute to poor coho survival through a temporal mismatch between smolt arrival and seasonal increases in food production in nearshore upwelling habitat. This matches the citing sentence’s description of a hypothesis, not an established causal finding. (LLM, conf=0.94)
hedgeddirect- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Supported
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Increases in spring and summer upwelling intensity, and associated increases in the rate of offshore advection, are expected.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Abstract
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to build up in Earth's atmosphere.
In the paper
“The BH suggests that under global warming, continental temperatures will rise faster during the local heating seasons than will temperatures in the nearby ocean, thereby steepening the cross-shore pressure gradients that drive upwelling-favorable winds (Fig. 1b, c).”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Predicted Physical Changes
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [11] Bakun A. Global climate change and intensification of coastal ocean upwelling. Science. 1990;247:198–201. source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Marine mammals and seabirds that are tied to sparsely distributed nesting or resting grounds could experience difficulties in obtaining prey resources, or adaptively respond by moving to more favorable biogeographic provinces.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Abstract
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“but warming may also have direct negative impacts on the production of phytoplankton and zooplankton.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Biophysical Responses
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“These eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) are among the most productive of the world's marine ecosystems [1,2].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [1] Ryther JH. Photosynthesis and fish production in the sea. Science. 1969;166:72–6. source
- Not matchedcites [2] Cushing DH. Upwelling and fish production. FAO Fish Tech Pap. 1969;84:40.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
Not yet classified.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“With upwelling intensification, ocean acidity will rise, affecting organisms with carbonate structures.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“If changes to physiological functions are substantial, variation in species' abundances can translate into changes in productivity, phenology, and community composition, hence interspecific relationships and ecosystem functions [28].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Biophysical Responses
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [28] Parmesan C. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst. 2006;37:637–69. source
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This pattern of increased upwelling-favorable wind intensity could be due to other climate-related mechanisms, such as natural multi-decadal climate variability, but the likelihood of significant greenhouse gas-related interactions cannot be dismissed.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Predicted Physical Changes
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Changes in the water column include greater stratification, greater rates of upwelling, and greater offshore transport as well as the offshore migration of the upwelling front”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Predicted Physical Changes
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“In EBUS, alongshore winds interact with the earth's rotation to force surface waters offshore, thereby pumping (i.e., Bupwelling^) nutrient-rich deeper waters into the illuminated surface layers in the coastal zone [3,4] where they are available for photosynthesis.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Sverdrup HU. On the process of upwelling. J Mar Res. 1938;1:155–64. source
- Not matchedcites [4] Wooster WS, Reid JL. Eastern boundary currents. In: Hill MN, editor. The sea, vol. 2. New York: Interscience Pub; 1963. p. 253–80.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Intensified upwelling-favorable winds [11] would lead to an increased upwelling rate, greater turbulence in the upper ocean, and swifter offshore transport of surface waters.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Coastal Upwelling
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [11] Bakun A. Global climate change and intensification of coastal ocean upwelling. Science. 1990;247:198–201. source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“While enhanced upwelling may lead to enhanced nutrient enrichment”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Coastal Upwelling
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In addition, changes in species composition of phytoplankton and zooplankton communities are a likely result that in turn may impact successively higher levels of the trophic web.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Coastal Upwelling
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“may be able to take advantage of low-oxygen environments.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Hypoxia, Dead Zones, and Acidification
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Such events, some extending over more than 20, 000 km 2 of ocean surface [64][65][66][67][68], have been repeatedly observed near the coast of Namibia, resulting in widespread mortality of marine life and corrosive, foul-smelling emissions over land.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Hypoxia, Dead Zones, and Acidification
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [64][65][66][67][68]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Over interannual to decadal time scales, increased zooplankton biomass [45][46][47] and variability in the productivity and abundance of zooplankton, fishes, and higher predators of the California Current have been attributed to the meridional position of the North Pacific Current [48][49][50].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Offshore Transport
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [45] Wickett WP. Ekman transport and zooplankton concentration in the North Pacific Ocean. J Fish Res Board Can. 1967;24:581–94. source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [46] Chelton DB, Davis RE. Monthly mean sea-level variability along the west coast of North America. J Phys Oceanogr. 1982;12:757–84. source
- Not matchedcites [47] Chelton DB, Bernal PA, McGowan JA. Large-scale physical and biological interaction in the California Current. J Mar Res. 1982;40:1095–125.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Consequently, the total amount and offshore extent of new primary production might increase.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Offshore Transport
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The biological impacts of these events can be catastrophic, with widespread mortality of macroscopic benthic organisms, resulting in periodic dead zones such as those observed on the Oregon continental shelf [61].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Hypoxia, Dead Zones, and Acidification
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [61] Grantham BA, Chan F, Nielsen KJ, Fox DS, Barth JA, Huyer A, et al. Upwelling-driven nearshore hypoxia signals ecosystem and oceanographic changes in the northeast Pacific. Nature. 2004;429:749–54. source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A claim is checked only against the cited paper’s full text, never its abstract, and none is available for its sources.
In the paper
“Phytoplankton and zooplankton would be transported more rapidly toward convergent offshore frontal systems, which themselves may be forced further offshore (Figs.1b, c and 2) [3,34,35].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Offshore Transport
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Sverdrup HU. On the process of upwelling. J Mar Res. 1938;1:155–64. source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [34] Barth JA. Stability of a coastal upwelling front. 2. Model results and comparison with observations. J Geophys Res. 1989;94:10857–83. source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [35] Marañón E, Fernández E. Changes in phytoplankton ecophysiology across a coastal upwelling front. J Plankton Res. 1995;17:1999–2008. source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“With strongly enhanced upwelling, the rate of offshore transport of surface waters would increase, potentially leading to problematic consequences.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Offshore Transport
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Furthermore, the marked difference in ontogeny, generation times, and swimming capabilities between phytoplankton and zooplankton may result in a spatial mismatch between herbivorous zooplankton and their phytoplankton forage, and/or flushing of any weakly mobile organisms from favorable habitats associated with the near-coastal upwelling zone [36].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Offshore Transport
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [36] Bakun A, Weeks SJ. Greenhouse gas buildup, sardines, submarine eruptions, and the possibility of abrupt degradation of intense marine upwelling ecosystems. Ecol Lett. 2004;7:1015–23. source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“With low to moderately strong upwelling, upwelled nutrients would support a robust phytoplankton community (Fig. 2), which would in turn sustain flourishing zooplankton and upper trophic level communities.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Coastal Upwelling
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: unclear — It is unclear why the paper says it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result, deep waters supplied in the future by upwelling may be characterized by increased macronutrient concentrations, reduced pH, and decreased oxygen concentrations.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Enhanced Offshore Transport
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Based on a regional climate model, upwellingfavorable wind stress curl off northern California is hypothesized to shift to later in the year in response to an increase in CO 2 concentrations [19].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Commercially Important Fish Populations
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [19] Snyder MA, Sloan LC, Diffenbaugh NS, Bell JL. Future climate change and upwelling in the California Current. Geophys Res Lett. 2003;30:1823–6. source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If the timing of upwelling changes, a temporal mismatch between fish larvae and their food may reduce survival.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Commercially Important Fish Populations
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
In the paper
“This process will lead to more acidic waters which will make it increasingly difficult for important lower trophic level marine organisms, such as oysters and pteropods, to precipitate calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) to form shells and exoskeletons [72][73][74].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Hypoxia, Dead Zones, and Acidification
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [72][73][74]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations cause a reduction in oceanic pH via the dissolution of CO2 into seawater.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Despite high levels of conservation concern, the impacts of climate change on seabirds and mammals remain relatively under-studied.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Seabirds and Marine Mammals
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: The ongoing and potential effects of climate change on EBUS-associated marine mammals have been less intensively studied than in the case of seabirds.
In the paper
“Finally, another hypothetical response may be that climate change and overfishing might jointly promote explosive population growth of less mobile and anoxia-tolerant planktivorous jellyfish [93][94][95][96].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Commercially Important Fish Populations
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [93][94][95][96]
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Changes to the timing of these modes and transitions may be biologically relevant”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Trophic Interactions, Match-Mismatch, and Phenological Responses
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Yet when upwelling is too strong, turbulence and offshore advection could decrease fish production due to disruption of feeding strata [87,88] and/or excessive offshore transport of planktonic larvae and prey away from favorable coastal habitats [86,89].”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Commercially Important Fish Populations
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [87] Lasker R. Field criteria for survival of anchovy larvae: the relation between inshore chlorophyll maximum layers and successful first feeding. Fish Bull. 1975;73:453–62.
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [88] Peterman RM, Bradford MJ. Wind speed and mortality rate of a marine fish, the northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax). Science. 1987;235:354–6. source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [86] Cury P, Roy C. Optimal environmental window and pelagic fish recruitment success in upwelling areas. Can J Fish Aquat Sci. 1989;46:670–80. source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [89] Ainley DG, Sydeman WJ, Parrish RH, Lenarz WH. Oceanic factors influencing distribution of young rockfish (Sebastes) in Central California: a predator’s perspective. Cal Coop Ocean Fish Invest Rep. 1993;34:133–9.
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
In the paper
“Similarly, the best fish production may occur when the timing or spatial distribution of prey is well-matched to the ecological needs of the (fish) predators; this is known as the match-mismatch hypothesis [23]”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Commercially Important Fish Populations
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [23] Cushing DH. Plankton production and year-class strength in fish populations—an update of the match-mismatch hypothesis. Adv Mar Biol. 1990;26:249–93. source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“EBUS can therefore be characterized as both resilient (quick recovery from disturbances) and robust (maintenance of ecosystem function and relatively high productivity) to natural climate variability, maintaining an abundance of species of high commercial and conservation value.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Ecosystem Variability
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Changes in the water column include greater stratification, greater rates of upwelling, and greater offshore transport as well as the offshore migration of the upwelling front”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Summary
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Anticipated changes include the poleward migration of the Oceanic High and source waters.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Summary
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“yet the impacts of climate change could be profound and difficult to forecast as they begin to exceed recent millennial ranges of precedent variability.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Summary
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An increasing incidence of hypoxia or anoxic events is likely to lead to the increased occurrence of dead zones, noxious gas emissions, and vertical compression of suitable habitats.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Summary
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Spatial or temporal (phenological) mismatch between production and consumption”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Summary
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Geochemical impacts on biology via noxious gas, acidification, and lack of oxygen.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Summary
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Changes in composition or intensity of primary productivity, with direct trophic linkages to and subsequent changes in community composition of heterotrophs”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Summary
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A possible tendency for increased coastal upwelling intensity as climate change proceeds could partially buffer coastal upwelling ecosystems from the increases in temperature and decreases in nutrient supply that may impact other types of regional-scale ocean ecosystems.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Summary
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Other more versatile components that may be less tied to predator-free shore zones might successfully exploit opportune ecological Bloopholes^that develop.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Summary
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Continental thermal lows are anticipated to deepen, which will intensify upwelling-favorable (equatorward) winds.”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Summary
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Redistribution of populations through habitat changes”
§ ECOLOGICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE (A BAKER, SECTION EDITOR) Anticipated Effects of Climate Change on Coastal Upwelling Ecosystems > Summary
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
The paper relies on this without support.
The four principal eastern boundary upwelling systems present major similarities in essential physical dynamics and ecosystem structures and functions.
“For this brief review, we focus on the four principal EBUS [4] of the world, as these appear to present major similarities in essential physical dynamics and ecosystem structures and functions.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to build up in Earth's atmosphere.
“due to the continuing buildup of greenhouse gasses in the earth's atmosphere”
The paper relies on this without support.
The Pacific EBUS are particularly impacted by ENSO, with effects on upwelling and across trophic levels in association with strong El Niño and La Niña events.
“The Pacific EBUS are particularly impacted by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with effects on upwelling and across trophic levels in association with strong El Niño and La Niña events.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Changes to the physical environment of EBUS can directly affect the physiology (e.g., metabolism and respiration) of marine life with impacts on growth, reproductive capacity, and behavior.
“Changes to the physical environment of EBUS can directly affect the physiology (e.g., metabolism and respiration) of marine life with impacts on growth, reproductive capacity, and behavior.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Metabolic rates increase with temperature.
“As metabolic rates increase with temperature”
The paper relies on this without support.
Some of the most critical impacts may include changes to habitat characteristics upon which fish and other upper trophic level species depend.
“Some of the most critical impacts may include changes to habitat characteristics upon which fish and other upper trophic level species depend.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Biogeochemical properties of waters entering upwelling zones can have significant influence on local biological processes.
“Biogeochemical properties of waters entering upwelling zones can have significant influence on local biological processes.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Surface waters of the poleward limbs of the subtropical gyres are expected to shift poleward under global warming.
“Surface waters of the poleward limbs of the subtropical gyres (e.g., the North Pacific Current), which are driven by the surface winds and are expected to shift poleward under global warming (see section 2)”
The paper relies on this without support.
Surface waters of the poleward limbs of the subtropical gyres supply a substantial portion of the surface waters in EBUS.
“supply a substantial portion of the surface waters in EBUS (Fig. 1b, c).”
The paper relies on this without support.
There is a general meridional gradient in surface nutrient, phytoplankton, and zooplankton concentrations, with greater concentrations at more poleward locations.
“Given a general meridional gradient in surface nutrient, phytoplankton, and zooplankton concentrations (with greater concentrations found at more poleward locations)”
The paper relies on this without support.
In anoxic zones, methane bubbles formed at depth as a by-product of anoxic respiration can collect poisonous hydrogen sulfide gas and carry it upward to oxygenated ocean layers and atmosphere in massive submarine eruptions.
“In anoxic zones, methane (CH 4 ) bubbles formed at depth as a by-product of anoxic respiration can collect poisonous hydrogen sulfide gas (H 2 S), and carry it upward to the oxygenated ocean layers and atmosphere in massive submarine eruptions.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations cause a reduction in oceanic pH via the dissolution of CO2 into seawater.
“Another consequence of rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations is the reduction in oceanic pH via the dissolution of CO 2 into seawater.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Mid trophic level biomass in upwelling systems is generally dominated by extremely large populations of one to several species of small pelagic planktivorous forage fish.
“Mid trophic level biomass in upwelling systems is generally dominated by extremely large populations of one to several species of small pelagic planktivorous Bforage^fish (anchovies, sardines, etc.).”
The paper relies on this without support.
Many rockfish in southern and central California release young in the winter to avoid the turbulent and advective periods later in the year when upwelling is at its peak.
“For example, it is thought that many rockfish in southern and central California release young in the winter to avoid the turbulent and advective periods later in the year when upwelling is at its peak.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Seabirds require nesting sites on opportune, appropriately configured islands.
“Of particular concern for seabirds is that they require nesting sites on opportune, appropriately configured islands.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Seals and other pinnipeds may require protected beaches where they can safely haul out to rest and to bear and care for pups.
“Similarly, seals and other pinnipeds may require protected beaches where they can safely Bhaul out^to rest and to bear and care for pups.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The ongoing and potential effects of climate change on EBUS-associated marine mammals have been less intensively studied than in the case of seabirds.
“However, the ongoing and potential effects of climate change on EBUSassociated marine mammals have been less intensively studied than in the case of seabirds.”
Citations
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“Furthermore, long-term change in local, alongshore wind forcing is one of several processes necessary to consider when exploring the sensitivity of the upwelling process to climate change [Bakun et al., 2015].”
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“Changing winds also have a strong impact on productivity through effects on frontal zones (Bakun et al., 2015).”
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“The wind distribution may vary with climate change (e.g., Bakun et al., 2010, 2015), but there is high uncertainty (Herrera-Estrada & Sheffield, 2017; Wuebbles et al., 2014) and no clear picture for the northern Gulf as of yet (Kulkarni & Huang, 2014; Lehrter et al., 2017).”
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“Such upwelling events also lead to marine organism habitat loss, and are increasing with climate change [33,34].”
BackgroundEvans, T. G., Pespeni, M. H., Hofmann, G. E., Palumbi, S. R., & Sanford, E. (2017) · Molecular Ecology · doi:10.1111/mec.14038 · Cited by 88
“2011), acidic and hypoxic; and because upwelling frequency is also expected to increase in the future, the magnitude of variation in these same environmental parameters will also change (Bakun et al. 2015).”
BackgroundThe route to extinction: population dynamics of a threatened butterfly
McLaughlin, J. F., Hellmann, J. J., Boggs, C. L., & Ehrlich, P. R. (2002) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/s00442-002-0997-2 · Cited by 88
Páez‐Osuna, F., Sánchez-Cabeza, J.-A., Ruíz-Fernández, A. C., Rodríguez, R. A., Piñón‐Gimate, A., Cardoso‐Mohedano, J. G., Flores-Verdugo, F. J., Carballo, J. L., Cisneros‐Mata, M. Á., & Álvarez-Borrego, S. (2016) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.09.015 · Cited by 88
The future of coastal upwelling in the Humboldt current from model projections
Oyarzún, D., & Brierley, C. (2018) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4158-7 · Cited by 91
“Furthermore, phytoplankton production might decrease in coastal upwelling ecosystems due to deeper and stronger surface mixing and light limitation associated with enhanced wind stress (Bakun et al. 2015).”
BackgroundLarval dispersal in a changing ocean with an emphasis on upwelling regions
Bashevkin, S. M., Dibble, C. D., Dunn, R. P., Hollarsmith, J. A., Ng, G., Satterthwaite, E. V., & Morgan, S. G. (2020) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1002/ecs2.3015 · Cited by 93
“1; Bakun et al. 2015, Garc ıaReyes et al. 2015).”
BackgroundHollarsmith, J. A., Buschmann, A. H., Camus, C., & Grosholz, E. D. (2019) · Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2019.151247 · Cited by 85
Pervasive iron limitation at subsurface chlorophyll maxima of the California Current
Hogle, S., Dupont, C. L., Hopkinson, B. M., et al. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1813192115 · Cited by 76
“A N D PL A N ET A RY SC IE N CE S CC under anthropogenic climate change (48, 49), which may drive diatom communities at the SCML toward Fe limitation if the associated Fe fluxes do not increase proportionally.”
BackgroundOcean Solutions That Benefit People, Nature and the Economy
Stuchtey, M., Vincent, A., Merkl, A. A., Bucher, M., Haugan, P. M., Lubchenco, J., & Pangestu, M. E. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-16277-0_20 · Cited by 77
Sensitivity of the California Current nutrient supply to wind, heat, and remote ocean forcing
Jacox, M. G., Bograd, S. J., Hazen, E. L., & Fiechter, J. (2015) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2015gl065147 · Cited by 81
Self-citationBrodeur, R. D., Hunsicker, M., Hann, A., & Miller, T. (2018) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps12497 · Cited by 74
“…boundary upwelling ecosystems will be affected by increasing ocean temperatures, but the expectation is that conditions will be substantially altered and probably less favorable for pelagic fish production in the coming decades (Doney et al. 2012, Bakun et al. 2015, García-Reyes et al. 2015).”
Reduced Nearshore Warming Associated With Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems
Seabra, R., Varela, R., Santos, A. M., Gómez-Gesteira, M., Meneghesso, C., Wethey, D. S., & Lima, F. P. (2019) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00104 · Cited by 74
“The net outcome from the interplay between these two opposing forces is complex and varies spatially and temporally (Bakun et al., 2015; Rykaczewski et al., 2015), which may explain why, inside EBUS, evidence on past SST trends and confidence in future predictions remains fragmented and conflicting (García-Reyes et al.”
BackgroundClimate engineering by mimicking natural dust climate control: the iron salt aerosol method
Oeste, F. D., de Richter, R. K., Ming, T., & Caillol, S. (2017) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-8-1-2017 · Cited by 74
“…and summer coastal upwelling intensity, associated with increases in the rate of offshore advection, decreasing the nutrient supply while producing a spatial or temporal (phenological) mismatch between production and consumption in the world’s most productive marine ecosystems (Bakun et al., 2015).”
BackgroundFog and fauna of the Namib Desert: past and future
Mitchell, D., Henschel, J. R., Hetem, R. S., et al. (2020) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1002/ecs2.2996 · Cited by 70
“Mainly because its formation and distribution depend on a complex interaction of wind regimes of uncertain future (Torregrosa et al. 2014, Bakun et al. 2015), it is extraordinarily difficult to predict future fog patterns (see Appendix S5).”
BackgroundGlobal Perspectives on Observing Ocean Boundary Current Systems
Todd, R. E., Chavez, F. P., Clayton, S. A., Cravatte, S., Góes, M., Graco, M., Lin, X., Sprintall, J., Zilberman, N. V., Archer, M., et al. (2019) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00423 · Cited by 82
Self-citationSantora, J., Hazen, E. L., Schroeder, I., Bograd, S., Sakuma, K., & Field, J. (2017) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps12278 · Cited by 72
“Due to their importance in global marine food webs, biodiversity time series of forage fish will fill key information gaps in global maps of biodiversity and in assessing declines that may impact fishery resources (Cury et al. 2000, Hiddink & Hofstedeter 2008, Bakun et al. 2015).”
BackgroundSelf-citationUpwelling buffers climate change impacts on coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific
Randall, C. J., Toth, L. T., Leichter, J. J., et al. (2019) · Ecology · doi:10.1002/ecy.2918 · Cited by 68
Abrahams, A., Schlegel, R. W., & Smit, A. J. (2021) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.626411 · Cited by 76
“EBUS provide up to 20% of the world’s fishery output despite only covering <1% of global ocean area (Bakun et al., 2010; Bakun et al., 2015).”
BackgroundInfluentialLubchenco, J., & Haugan, P. M. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-16277-0 · Cited by 80
Strader, M. E., Wong, J. M., Kozal, L. C., Leach, T. S., & Hofmann, G. E. (2019) · Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology · doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2019.03.002 · Cited by 65
Major environmental drivers determining life and death of cold-water corals through time
Portilho-Ramos, R. C., Titschack, J., Wienberg, C., Rojas, M. G. S., Yokoyama, Y., & Hebbeln, D. (2022) · PLoS Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3001628 · Cited by 61
Marine Pelagic Ecosystem Responses to Climate Variability and Change
Ducklow, H. W., Cimino, M. A., Dunton, K. H., Fraser, W. R., Hopcroft, R. R., Ji, R., Miller, A. J., Ohman, M. D., & Sosik, H. M. (2022) · BioScience · doi:10.1093/biosci/biac050 · Cited by 66
Self-citationCoastal warming under climate change: Global, faster and heterogeneous
Varela, R., deCastro, M., Días, J. M., & Gómez-Gesteira, M. (2023) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164029 · Cited by 68
“As coastal warming increases, thermal strati fi cation causes a decrease in the effectiveness of upwelling in pumping nutrient-rich waters, as reported by Bakun et al., 2015 and García-Reyes et al., 2015.”
Ramajo, L., Valladares, M., Astudillo, O., Fernández, C., Rodríguez‐Navarro, A. B., Watt-Arévalo, P., Núñez, M., Grenier, C., Román, R., Aguayo, P., et al. (2020) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140949 · Cited by 59
Swezey, D. S., Boles, S. E., Aquilino, K. M., Stott, H. K., Bush, D., Whitehead, A., Rogers‐Bennett, L., Hill, T. M., & Sanford, E. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2006910117 · Cited by 62
“Ocean circulation models predict that the intensity, frequency, and duration of these events will increase rapidly in the coming decades, outpacing many other regions (35 – 37), highlighting the need for industry adaptation and management options for this region in particular.”
Coastal Development: Resilience, Restoration and Infrastructure Requirements
Steven, A., Addo, K. A., Llewellyn, G., Ca, V. T., Boateng, I., Bustamante, R., Doropoulos, C., Gillies, C., Hemer, M., Lopes, P., et al. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-16277-0_7 · Cited by 61
Bednaršek, N., Feely, R. A., Beck, M. W., Glippa, O., Kanerva, M., & Engström‐Öst, J. (2018) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2018.00486 · Cited by 56
It’s the Little Things: The Role of Microscopic Life Stages in Maintaining Kelp Populations
Edwards, M. S. (2022) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2022.871204 · Cited by 56
“, 2010) and thus altered patterns of zoospore production (Reed et al., 1988; Edwards and Konar, 2012). These impacts may be further exacerbated if increases in ocean acidification (OA) and/or ocean warming (OW) from climate change also negatively affect kelp zoospores. For example, Hoos (2015) showed that exposure to…”
BackgroundResultInfluentialSilva, C., Andrade, I. A. L. D. A., Eleuterio Yáñez, R., Hormazabal, S. E., Barbieri, M. Á., Aranís, A., & Böhm, G. (2016) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2016.06.006 · Cited by 57
Emergent anthropogenic trends in California Current upwelling
Brady, R. X., Alexander, M. A., Lovenduski, N. S., & Rykaczewski, R. R. (2017) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl072945 · Cited by 63
Self-citationSchroeder, I. D., Santora, J. A., Bograd, S. J., Hazen, E. L., Sakuma, K. M., Moore, A. M., Edwards, C. A., Wells, B. K., & Field, J. C. (2018) · Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences · doi:10.1139/cjfas-2017-0480 · Cited by 57
“Because of climate change, increased ocean surface warming may impede the effectiveness of upwelling to deliver nutrients to the surface because of increased stratification (Gilly et al. 2013; Bakun et al. 2015).”
BackgroundSelf-citationWeidberg, N., Ospina‐Álvarez, A., Bonicelli, J., Barahona, M., Aiken, C. M., Broitman, B. R., & Navarrete, S. A. (2020) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103259 · Cited by 54
“Overall, increases or decreases in upwelling winds and the position of the highpressure systems do not only alter offshore advection, but also many other processes that can affect productivity of the coastal ocean (Bakun et al., 2015).”
BackgroundInfluentialHolland, M. M., Smith, J. A., Everett, J. D., Vergés, A., & Suthers, I. M. (2020) · Fish and Fisheries · doi:10.1111/faf.12488 · Cited by 57
How will Somali coastal upwelling evolve under future warming scenarios?
deCastro, M., Sousa, M. C., Santos, F., Días, J. M., & Gómez-Gesteira, M. (2016) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep30137 · Cited by 56
Elasmobranch Responses to Experimental Warming, Acidification, and Oxygen Loss—A Meta-Analysis
Santos, C. P., Sampaio, E., Pereira, B. P., Pegado, M. R., Borges, F. O., Wheeler, C. R., Bouyoucos, I. A., Rummer, J. L., Santos, C., & Rosa, R. (2021) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.735377 · Cited by 57
Anabalón, V., Morales, C. E., González, H. E., et al. (2016) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2016.10.011 · Cited by 49
“Intensification of winds has been predicted and observed in most EBCSs (Sydeman et al., 2014; Bakun et al., 2015) but the impact on phytoplankton community structures and production remains uncertain (GarcíaReyes et al., 2015).”
BackgroundImpacts of Low Oxygen on Marine Life: Neglected, but a Crucial Priority for Research
Borges, F. O., Sampaio, E., Santos, C. P., & Rosa, R. (2022) · Biological Bulletin · doi:10.1086/721468 · Cited by 47
“…the past decades have been shown to also feature a significant increasing trend for extreme acidification (Hauri et al., 2013; Burger et al., 2020) and hypoxic events (Bakun et al., 2015), which are both expected to become even more prevalent during the present century (Gruber et al., 2021).”
BackgroundSousa, M. C., deCastro, M., Alvarez, I., Gómez-Gesteira, M., & Días, J. M. (2017) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.046 · Cited by 53
Larval fish assemblages across an upwelling front: Indication for active and passive retention
Tiedemann, M., & Brehmer, P. (2016) · Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science · doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2016.12.015 · Cited by 49
Bueno‐Pardo, J., Nobre, D., Monteiro, J. N., Sousa, P. M., Costa, E. F. S., Baptista, V., Ovelheiro, A., Vieira, V. M. N. C. S., Chı́charo, L. M. Z., Gaspar, M. B., et al. (2021) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-021-82595-5 · Cited by 48
Braga, A. C., Camacho, C., Marques, A., Gago-Martínez, A., Pacheco, M., & Costa, P. R. (2018) · Environmental Research · doi:10.1016/j.envres.2018.03.045 · Cited by 47
Gómez, C. E., Wickes, L., Deegan, D. F., Etnoyer, P. J., & Cordes, E. E. (2018) · PeerJ · doi:10.7717/peerj.5671 · Cited by 50
“However, there is some evidence that increased shore wind velocity can lead to increased nutrient delivery in upwelling systems (Bakun et al., 2015; Wang et al., 2015), which if coupled with an efficient feeding behavior, CWCs from California margin might be able to increase their energy intake for metabolic function…”
BackgroundWells, B., Santora, J., Schroeder, I., Mantua, N., Sydeman, W., Huff, D., & Field, J. (2016) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps11757 · Cited by 44
Self-citationCalosi, P., Putnam, H. M., Twitchett, R. J., & Vermandele, F. (2018) · Annual Review of Marine Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-010318-095106 · Cited by 51
Taboada, F. G., Stock, C. A. A., Griffies, S. M., Dunne, J. P. P., John, J. G., Small, J., & Tsujino, H. (2018) · Ocean Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.11.003 · Cited by 46
Ferreira, A., Brotas, V., Palma, C., Borges, C., & Brito, A. C. (2021) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs13040675 · Cited by 48
“While higher upwelling intensity should promote higher nutrient availability, the expected increased wind intensity will also cause deeper water column mixing and light limitation, leading to lower phytoplankton biomass in some regions [79].”
BackgroundResultCoastal marine ecosystem connectivity: pelagic ocean to kelp forest subsidies
Zuercher, R., & Galloway, A. W. E. (2019) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1002/ecs2.2602 · Cited by 46
Sarré, A., Demarcq, H., Keenlyside, N. S., Krakstad, J., Ayoubi, S. E., JEYID, A. M., Faye, S., Mbaye, A., Sidibeh, M., & Brehmer, P. (2024) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-024-61734-8 · Cited by 52
“6b,c) underscores indirect biogeochemical processes and variations in planktonic compositions that likely vary seasonally, consistent with Bakun’s theory of summer warming 92 .”
BackgroundLevin, L. A., Mendoza, G., & Grupe, B. (2016) · Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2016.05.021 · Cited by 43
Ocean Heat Storage in Response to Changing Ocean Circulation Processes
Dias, F. B., Fiedler, R. A. S., Marsland, S., Domingues, C. M., Clément, L., Rintoul, S. R., McDonagh, E. L., MATA, M. M., & Savita, A. (2020) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-1016.1 · Cited by 48
Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Fisheries and Aquaculture in Chile
Eleuterio Yáñez, R., Lagos, N. A., Norambuena, R., Silva, C., Letelier, J. P., Muck, K., Martin, G. S., Benítez, S., Broitman, B. R., Contreras, H., et al. (2017) · Wiley eBooks · doi:10.1002/9781119154051.ch10 · Cited by 45
“The synthesis of empirical studies suggests that these climate change projections could become evident in the decades ahead compromising the sustainability of benthic ecosystems (e.g., Feely et al., 2008; Bakun et al., 2015).”
BackgroundInfluentialClimate change-driven cooling can kill marine megafauna at their distributional limits
Lubitz, N., Daly, R., Smoothey, A. F., Vianello, P., Roberts, M. J., Schoeman, D. S., Sheaves, M. J., Cowley, P. D., Dagorn, L., Forget, F. G., et al. (2024) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-024-01966-8 · Cited by 47
“Globally, upwelling cells are believed to be intensifying due to climate change-driven shifts in pressure systems and ocean currents 8,9 .”
InfluentialPersistence of trophic hotspots and relation to human impacts within an upwelling marine ecosystem
Santora, J. A., Sydeman, W. J., Schroeder, I. D., Field, J. C., Miller, R. R., & Wells, B. K. (2016) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1002/eap.1466 · Cited by 43
Self-citationSilva, C., Leiva, F., & Lastra, J. A. (2018) · Fisheries Oceanography · doi:10.1111/fog.12400 · Cited by 43
Effect Factors for marine eutrophication in LCIA based on species sensitivity to hypoxia
Cosme, N. M. D., & Hauschild, M. Z. (2016) · Ecological Indicators · doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.04.006 · Cited by 46
“Future global warming conditions may increase the occurrence and prevalence of hypoxia in coastal waters by the effect of e.g. increased temperature and enhanced stratification (Bakun et al., 2015; Kennedy, 1990; Rabalais et al., 2009).”
BackgroundTowards the integration of animal‐borne instruments into global ocean observing systems
March, D., Boehme, L., Tintoré, J., et al. (2019) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14902 · Cited by 42
“For example, coastal areas and eastern boundary upwelling systems constitute biological hotspots offering a wide range of foraging habitat to marine megafauna species (Bakun et al., 2015; Rodríguez-Zárate et al., 2018).”
BackgroundHoward, E. M., Frenzel, H., Kessouri, F., Renault, L., Bianchi, D., McWilliams, J. C., & Deutsch, C. A. (2020) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2020gb006646 · Cited by 43
“…in forecasting climate change impacts in the CCS is uncertainty in determining how changes in ocean biogeochemistry imported from the broader Pacific basin may be ameliorated or exacerbated by regional forcing by winds or other coastal processes (Bakun et al., 2015; Di Lorenzo et al., 2005).”
BackgroundWang, Y., Liu, J., Liu, H., et al. (2021) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · doi:10.1029/2020jc016356 · Cited by 41
Climate change impacts on living marine resources in the Eastern Tropical Pacific
Clarke, T. M., Reygondeau, G., Wabnitz, C. C. C., Robertson, D. R., Ixquiac, M., López, M. I., Ramírez, A. R., Iglesias, J. L. D. R., Wehrtmann, I. S., & Cheung, W. W. L. (2020) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.13181 · Cited by 49
“For example, enhanced hypoxia and acidification associated with upwelling activity could limit the beneficial effects of cooling and higher primary productivities on habitat suitability (Bakun, 2017; Bakun et al., 2015; Fiedler & Lavín, 2017).”
BackgroundWang, S., Jing, Z., Wu, L., Sun, S., Peng, Q., Wang, H., Zhang, Y., & Shi, J. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-35666-8 · Cited by 45
Climate change and ocean deoxygenation within intensified surface-driven upwelling circulations
Bakun, A. (2017) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0327 · Cited by 46
Self-citationStrader, M. E., Kozal, L. C., Leach, T. S., Wong, J. M., Chamorro, J. D., Housh, M. J., & Hofmann, G. E. (2020) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00205 · Cited by 41
Dudley, P. N., Rogers, T. L., Morales, M. M., Stoltz, A. D., Sheridan, C. J., Beulke, A. K., Pomeroy, C., & Carr, M. H. (2021) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.678099 · Cited by 43
Divergent responses of highly migratory species to climate change in the California Current
Lezama‐Ochoa, N., Brodie, S. J., Welch, H., Jacox, M. G., Buil, M. P., Fiechter, J., Cimino, M. A., Muhling, B. A., Dewar, H., Becker, E. A., et al. (2023) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/ddi.13800 · Cited by 43
“In addition, eastern boundary upwelling systems are expected to experience changes in the intensity and timing of coastal upwelling, with uncertain implications for system phenology productivity (Bakun et al., 2015 ; Bograd et al., 2023 ).”
BackgroundSelf-citationNaderi, L., Karamidehkordi, E., Badsar, M., & Moghadas, M. (2024) · Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies · doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101878 · Cited by 47
High resolution projections for the western Iberian coastal low level jet in a changing climate
Soares, P. M. M., Lima, D. C. A., Cardoso, R. M., & Semedo, A. A. M. (2016) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3397-8 · Cited by 41
“The enhancement of low-level jets would lead to an increased upwelling rate, greater turbulence in the upper-ocean, and faster offshore transport of surface waters (Bakun et al. 2015).”
BackgroundInfluentialAcoustic signature reveals blue whales tune life‐history transitions to oceanographic conditions
Oestreich, W. K., Abrahms, B. L., McKenna, M. F., Goldbogen, J. A., Crowder, L. B., & Ryan, J. P. (2022) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2435.14013 · Cited by 41
Ani, C. J., & Robson, B. (2021) · Marine Pollution Bulletin · doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2021.112223 · Cited by 40
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“However, it does provide a foundation on which to study interannual changes to this mean seasonal structure (e.g., North Pacific marine heatwave from 2014 to 2016, Largier et al., in prep), as well as anticipated effects of climate change on the upwelling system (cf. Bakun et al., 2015).”
BackgroundGlobal mapping and evolution of persistent fronts in Large Marine Ecosystems over the past 40 years
Xing, Q., Yu, H., & Wang, H. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-48566-w · Cited by 43
Cisneros‐Mata, M. Á., Mangin, T., Bone, J., Rodriguez, L., Smith, S. L., & Gaines, S. D. (2019) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0222317 · Cited by 42
“Wind stress Deep euphotic zone and increased offshore transport High primary productivity, variable phenology [41]”
BackgroundAguirre, C., Garreaud, R., Belmar, L., Farı́as, L., Ramajo, L., & Barrera, F. (2021) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2021.702051 · Cited by 37
“Nonetheless, phytoplankton production might change in EBUS areas due to the stronger surface mixing and light limitation associated with enhanced wind stress (Bakun et al., 2015).”
BackgroundClimate change impacts on coastal ecosystems
Guild, R., Wang, X., & Quijón, P. A. (2024) · Environmental Research Climate · doi:10.1088/2752-5295/ad9f90 · Cited by 42
“The AMOC, a key part of the global thermohaline circulation, redistributes heat, nutrients, and oxygen throughout the ocean, while EBUS, including the California, Canary, Humboldt, and Benguela Currents, bring nutrient-rich deep waters to the surface [1, 128].”
InfluentialKeller, A., Ciannelli, L., Wakefield, W. W., Simon, V., Barth, J., & Pierce, S. D. (2017) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps12066 · Cited by 36
Coastal upwelling fronts as a boundary for planktivorous fish distributions
Satô, M., Barth, J., Benoit‐Bird, K. J., Pierce, S. D., Cowles, T., Brodeur, R. D., & Peterson, W. (2018) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps12553 · Cited by 37
The Expected Impacts of Climate Change on the Ocean Economy
Gaines, S. D., Cabral, R., Free, C. M., Golbuu, Y., Árnason, R., Battista, W., Bradley, D., Cheung, W., Fabricius, K., Hoegh‐Guldberg, O., et al. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-16277-0_2 · Cited by 38
NOAA, Santora, J. A., Schroeder, I. D., et al. (2021) · Oceanography · doi:10.5670/oceanog.2021.212 · Cited by 35
Self-citationBig data approaches to the spatial ecology and conservation of marine megafauna
Grémillet, D., Chevallier, D., & Guinet, C. (2022) · ICES Journal of Marine Science · doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsac059 · Cited by 36
Sánchez-Cabeza, J.-A., Herrera-Becerril, C. A., Carballo, J. L., et al. (2022) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2022.102746 · Cited by 34
Surface winds off Peru-Chile: Observing closer to the coast from radar altimetry
Astudillo, O., Dewitte, B., Mallet, M., Frappart, F., Rutllant, J. A., Ramos, M., Bravo, L., Goubanova, K., & Illig, S. (2017) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2017.01.010 · Cited by 33
Sousa, M. C., Alvarez, I., deCastro, M., Gómez-Gesteira, M., & Días, J. M. (2017) · Progress In Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2017.04.002 · Cited by 37
Turi, G., Alexander, M. A., Lovenduski, N. S., Capotondi, A. M., Scott, J. D., Stock, C. A. A., Dunne, J. P. P., John, J. G., & Jacox, M. G. (2018) · Ocean science · doi:10.5194/os-14-69-2018 · Cited by 33
Metadata
- Authors
- Bakun, A., Black, B. A., Bograd, S. J., García-Reyes, M., Miller, A. J., Rykaczewski, R. R., & Sydeman, W. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Miami (US)
- University of Texas at Austin Marine Science Institute (US)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
- University of South Carolina (US)
- Farallon Institute (US)
- Corresponding author
- Bakun, A.
- Venue
- Current Climate Change Reports
- Published
- 2015-03-07
- Volume
- 1
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 85-93
- ISSN
- 2198-6061 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2133319177
- Semantic Scholar
- 45a65c8984bcb26471e5a888137717546d995758
- Cited by
- 470
- References
- 104
- Citations by year
- 2026: 34 · 2025: 48 · 2024: 53 · 2023: 62 · 2022: 47 · 2021: 51 · 2020: 41 · 2019: 40 · 2018: 43 · 2017: 26 · 2016: 20 · 2015: 4
- FWCI
- 24.98
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Current Climate Change Reports (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1419306, 1026607, 0960770, 1434732)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine Plankton and Biogeochemistry
- Keywords
- coastal upwelling, climate change impacts, ocean warming, hypoxia, ocean acidification, carbonate structures, stratification, turbulent diffusion, ENSO, pelagic fish resources, overfishing, community composition, marine mammals, seabirds
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-16, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-16 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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