Total and Cause-Specific Mortality of U.S. Nurses Working Rotating Night Shifts
Open accessAbstract
Background Rotating night shift work imposes circadian strain and is linked to the risk of several chronic diseases. Purpose To examine associations between rotating night shift work and all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer mortality in a prospective cohort study of 74,862 registered U.S. nurses from the Nurses’ Health Study. Methods Lifetime rotating night shift work (defined as ≥3 nights/month) information was collected in 1988. During 22 years (1988–2010) of follow-up, 14,181 deaths were documented, including 3,062 CVD and 5,413 cancer deaths. Cox proportional hazards models (2013) estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Results All-cause and CVD mortality were significantly increased among women with ≥5 years of rotating night shift work, compared to women who never worked night shifts. Specifically, for women with 6–14 and ≥15 years of rotating night shift work, the HRs were 1.11 (95% CI=1.06, 1.17) and 1.11 (95% CI=1.05, 1.18) for all-cause mortality and 1.19 (95% CI=1.07, 1.33) and 1.23 (95% CI=1.09, 1.38) for CVD mortality. There was no association between rotating night shift work and all-cancer mortality (HR≥15years=1.08, 95% CI=0.89, 1.19) or any other cancer, with the exception of lung cancer (HR≥15years=1.25, 95% CI=1.04, 1.51). Conclusions Women working rotating night shifts for ≥5 five years have a modest increase in all-cause and CVD mortality; those working ≥15 years of rotating night shift work have a modest increase in lung cancer mortality. These results add to prior evidence of a potentially detrimental effect of rotating night shift work on health and longevity.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
In the Nurses’ Health Study, working rotating night shifts for more than 5 years was associated with modestly higher all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality, and ≥15 years was associated with higher lung cancer mortality. No clear association was found for all-cancer mortality overall.
Key findings
- All-cause mortality was increased for women with 6–14 years (HR=1.11, 95% CI=1.06, 1.17) and ≥15 years (HR=1.11, 95% CI=1.05, 1.18; ptrend<0.001) of rotating night shift work versus never.
- CVD mortality was increased for 6–14 years (HR=1.19, 95% CI=1.07, 1.33) and ≥15 years (HR=1.23, 95% CI=1.09, 1.38; ptrend<0.001); ischemic heart disease mortality was also increased for ≥15 years (HR=1.31, 95% CI=1.09, 1.59).
- All-cancer mortality was not associated after multivariable adjustment (HR for ≥15 years=1.08, 95% CI=0.98, 1.19 in the Results), but lung cancer mortality was increased for ≥15 years (HR=1.25, 95% CI=1.04, 1.51).
- Breast cancer mortality was not increased for ≥15 years (HR=0.99, 95% CI=0.74, 1.33), though a non-significant increase was reported for ≥30 years (HR=1.47, 95% CI=0.94, 2.32).
Methods
- Prospective cohort study of 74,862 U.S. registered female nurses in the Nurses’ Health Study, with lifetime rotating night shift work (≥3 nights/month) assessed in 1988 and 22 years of follow-up (1988–2010).
- During follow-up, 14,181 deaths were documented, including 3,062 CVD deaths and 5,413 cancer deaths; cause of death was determined by physician review using medical records and death certificates.
- Cox proportional hazards models estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs, with adjustment for age and updated lifestyle, reproductive, smoking, BMI, and SES-related covariates.
Limitations
- Stated: night shift work information was collected only in 1988 and not updated, potentially causing exposure misclassification; timing of earlier adult exposure was unknown; permanent night shift workers may have been misclassified; multiple comparisons were a concern; and night shift effects were difficult to separate from lack of sleep.
- Stated: some cancer-site analyses had limited power, especially cancers with <100 deaths, warranting larger studies.
- Evident: the observational design cannot establish causality, and despite extensive adjustment, residual confounding by unmeasured or imperfectly measured factors remains possible.
Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
0 of 37 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
For all-cause mortality, the multivariable-adjusted HR for women with 6-14 years of rotating night shift work was 1.11 (95% CI=1.06, 1.17).
“For all-cause mortality, the multivariable-adjusted HRs for women with 1–5, 6–14, or ≥15 years of rotating night shift work were 1.01 (95% CI=0.97, 1.05), 1.11 (95% CI=1.06, 1.17), and 1.11 (95% CI=1.05, 1.18; ptrend<0.001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
No significant interaction with BMI was observed for any of the endpoints.
“No significant interaction with BMI was observed for any of the endpoints (Appendix Table 2).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For colorectal cancer mortality, the age-adjusted HR after ≥15 years of rotating night shift work was 1.42 (95% CI=1.04, 1.94), attenuated to 1.33 (95% CI=0.97, 1.83) after multivariable adjustment.
“For colorectal cancer, the age-adjusted HR after ≥15 years of rotating night shift work was 1.42 (95% CI=1.04, 1.94), but was attenuated to 1.33 (95% CI=0.97, 1.83) after multivariate adjustment.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
There were no significant associations among women working rotating night shifts for 6-14 and ≥15 years for cerebrovascular disease or any other CVD.
“There were no significant associations among women working rotating night shifts for 6–14 and ≥15 years for cerebrovascular disease or any other CVD.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
There was no significant association between rotating night shift work and mortality from other cancers.
“There was no significant association between rotating night shift work and mortality from other cancers.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Findingown data
For CVD mortality, the multivariable-adjusted HR for women with 6-14 years of rotating night shift work was 1.19 (95% CI=1.07, 1.33).
“For CVD mortality, the multivariable-adjusted HRs were 1.02 (95% CI=0.94, 1.11), 1.19 (95% CI=1.07, 1.33), and 1.23 (95% CI=1.09, 1.38; ptrend<0.001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Among women with ≥30 years of rotating night shift work, the multivariable HR for breast cancer mortality was 1.47 (95% CI=0.94, 2.32).
“among women with ≥30 years of rotating night shift work, the multivariable HR for breast cancer mortality was 1.47 (95% CI=0.94, 2.32).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For CVD and IHD mortality, HRs were comparable among never smokers and the entire analytic sample.
“Similarly, for CVD and IHD mortality, HRs were comparable among never smokers and the entire analytic sample.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For all-cause mortality, the multivariable-adjusted HR for women with ≥15 years of rotating night shift work was 1.11 (95% CI=1.05, 1.18).
“For all-cause mortality, the multivariable-adjusted HRs for women with 1–5, 6–14, or ≥15 years of rotating night shift work were 1.01 (95% CI=0.97, 1.05), 1.11 (95% CI=1.06, 1.17), and 1.11 (95% CI=1.05, 1.18; ptrend<0.001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
No increase in breast cancer mortality was observed among women with ≥15 years of rotating night shift work (multivariable HR=0.99, 95% CI=0.74, 1.33).
“Although no increase in breast cancer mortality was observed among women with ≥15 years of rotating night shift work (multivariable HR=0.99, 95% CI=0.74, 1.33)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
For lung cancer mortality, the multivariable-adjusted HR for ≥15 years of rotating night shift work was 1.25 (95% CI=1.04, 1.51).
“For lung cancer mortality, the age-adjusted HR for ≥15 years of rotating night shift work was 1.44 (95% CI=1.20, 1.73), and 1.25 after multivariate adjustment (95% CI=1.04, 1.51), with smoking as the driving confounder.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
For CVD mortality, the multivariable-adjusted HR for women with ≥15 years of rotating night shift work was 1.23 (95% CI=1.09, 1.38).
“For CVD mortality, the multivariable-adjusted HRs were 1.02 (95% CI=0.94, 1.11), 1.19 (95% CI=1.07, 1.33), and 1.23 (95% CI=1.09, 1.38; ptrend<0.001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation
The circadian system and its prime marker, melatonin, are considered to have antitumor effects through multiple pathways, including antioxidant activity, anti-inflammatory effects, and immune enhancement.
“The circadian system and its prime marker, melatonin, are considered to have antitumor effects through multiple pathways, including antioxidant activity, anti-inflammatory effects, and immune enhancement.33-37”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 5 sources checked- cites [33] Lange, 2010, Effects of sleep and circadian rhythm on the human immune system, Ann N Y Acad Sci source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [34] Haus, 2013, Shift work and cancer risk: potential mechanistic roles of circadian disruption, light at night, and sleep deprivation, Sleep Med Rev source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [35] Fu, 2003, The circadian clock: pacemaker and tumour suppressor, Nat Rev Cancer source
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- cites [36] van Dam, 2008, Combined impact of lifestyle factors on mortality: prospective cohort study in US women, BMJ source
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- cites [37] Green, 2008, The meter of metabolism, Cell source
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- Study design and conductreasoning
A single occupation (nursing) provides more internal validity than a range of different occupational groups.
“A single occupation (nursing) provides more internal validity than a range of different occupational groups, where the association between shift work and disease outcomes could be confounded by occupational differences.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
The current study provides further support for a link between night shift work, especially of longer durations, and increased IHD events.
“Together with previous evidence,8,10 the current study provides further support for a link between night shift work, especially of longer durations, and increased IHD events.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [8] Menegaux, 2013, Night work and breast cancer: a population-based case-control study in France (the CECILE study), Int J Cancer source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [10] Pesch, 2010, Night work and breast cancer—results from the German GENICA study, Scand J Work Environ Health source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductreasoning
Using a cohort of nurses with relatively homogeneous SES minimized potential confounding.
“Using a cohort of nurses with relatively homogeneous SES minimized potential confounding.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductown data
Adjusting for current disease status (T2D, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia) left results largely unchanged.
“Adjusting for current disease status (T2D, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia) left results largely unchanged (data not shown).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Premisecitation
Sleep disruption may accentuate the negative effects of night work on health.
“In addition, sleep disruption may also accentuate the negative effects of night work on health.44,45”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [44] Ramin, 2014, Night shift work at specific age ranges and chronic disease risk factors, Occup Environ Med
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- cites [45] Colditz, 2005, The Nurses׳ Health Study: lifestyle and health among women, Nat Rev Cancer source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductown data
Sensitivity analyses restricted to women with sleep duration of 6-8 hours did not change results materially.
“sensitivity analyses restricted to women who reported 6–8 sleep hours (not including nap times) per day did not change results materially (data not shown).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductcitation
The National Death Index is highly sensitive and specific in this cohort.
“the National Death Index, which is highly sensitive and specific in this cohort.49”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [49] Hublin, 2010, Shift-work and cardiovascular disease: a population-based 22-year follow-up study, Eur J Epidemiol source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductcitation
The 1988 assessment of lifetime night work likely captures most of the night shift work history of women retained in this cohort.
“The 1988 assessment of lifetime night work likely captures most of the night shift work history of women retained in this cohort, as, based on data from the NHS2 cohort,46 <5% of nurses continue to work night shifts in middle age and <2% commence working night shifts at this age.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [46] Kawachi, 1995, Prospective study of shift work and risk of coronary heart disease in women, Circulation source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductown data
When requiring a p-value of 0.01 for significance, the results remain largely unchanged.
“when requiring a p-value of 0.01 for significance, the results remain largely unchanged.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
Any remaining non-differential misclassification of exposure could have biased results, likely toward the null in most situations.
“any remaining non-differential misclassification of the exposure assessment could have biased results, albeit likely toward the null in most situations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationcitation
The moderately increased lung and colorectal cancer mortality among women with ≥15 years of night shift work is consistent with previous reports on incident lung and colorectal cancer in the same cohort.
“The moderately increased lung and colorectal cancer mortality among women with ≥15 years of night shift work is consistent with previous reports on the risk of developing incident lung and colorectal among night shift–working women in the same cohort.58,59”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [58] Corbin, 2011, Lung cancer and occupation: a New Zealand cancer registry-based case-control study, Am J Ind Med source
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- cites [59] Colditz, 1986, Validation of questionnaire information on risk factors and disease outcomes in a prospective cohort study of women, Am J Epidemiol source
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- Study design and conductreasoning
Information on a range of lifestyle factors was prospectively and repeatedly collected and used for multivariable adjustment to minimize potential confounding.
“Finally, information on a range of lifestyle factors was prospectively and repeatedly collected and used for multivariable adjustment to minimize potential confounding by these factors.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
These results add to prior evidence of a potentially detrimental effect of rotating night shift work on health and longevity.
“These results add to prior evidence of a potentially detrimental effect of rotating night shift work on health and longevity.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- May combine two claims. 19
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 7
- The quote only partly states this claim. 1
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataWomen working rotating night shifts for >5 years had modest increases in both all-cause and CVD-related mortality, compared to women who never worked rotating night shifts.
“Women working rotating night shifts for >5 years had modest increases in both all-cause and CVD-related mortality, compared to women who never worked rotating night shifts.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThere was a non-significant increase in kidney cancer mortality among women with 6-14 and ≥15 years of night work; multivariable HRs were 1.72 (95% CI=1.03, 2.86) and 1.39 (95% CI=0.75, 2.57), respectively (ptrend=0.048).
“There was a non-significant increase in mortality from kidney cancer and myeloma among women with 6–14 and ≥15 years of night work: the multivariable HRs were 1.72 (95% CI=1.03, 2.86) and 1.39 (95% CI=0.75, 2.57) for kidney cancer (ptrend=0.048)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThere was a non-significant increase in myeloma mortality among women with 6-14 and ≥15 years of night work; multivariable HRs were 1.56 (95% CI=0.93, 2.64) and 1.61 (95% CI=0.90, 2.88), respectively (ptrend=0.08).
“and 1.56 (95% CI=0.93, 2.64) and 1.61 (95% CI=0.90, 2.88) for myeloma (ptrend=0.08).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataOver 22 years and 1.5 million person-years of follow-up, 14,181 deaths were documented, of which 3,062 were attributed to CVD and 5,413 to cancer.
“Over 22 years and 1.5 million person-years of follow-up, 14,181 deaths were documented, of which 3,062 were attributed to CVD and 5,413 to cancer.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataIncreased IHD mortality was observed among women who worked rotating night shifts for 6-14 and ≥15 years; HRs were 1.22 (95% CI=1.02, 1.46) and 1.31 (95% CI=1.09, 1.59), respectively (ptrend<0.001).
“increased IHD mortality was observed among women who worked rotating night shifts for 6–14 and ≥15 years (HR=1.22, 95% CI=1.02, 1.46; 1.31, 1.09, 1.59, respectively; ptrend<0.001).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAfter multivariable adjustment, there was no association between rotating night shift work and all-cancer mortality; the HR for ≥15 years was 1.08 (95% CI=0.98, 1.19).
“Compared to women who never worked rotating night shifts, the age-adjusted HRs were 1.10 (95% CI=1.01, 1.20) and 1.20 (95% CI=1.09, 1.32), but these associations were attenuated after multivariable adjustment, with HRs of 1.04 (95% CI=0.95, 1.13) and 1.08 (95% CI=0.98, 1.19), respectively.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataAssociations for overall cancer, lung cancer, and colon cancer mortality appeared to vary by smoking status, but there was no statistically significant interaction (pinteraction>0.05).
“Associations for overall cancer, lung cancer, and colon cancer mortality appeared to vary by smoking status, but there was no statistically significant interaction (pinteraction>0.05).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe association of rotating night shift work with all-cause mortality appeared stronger among current smokers (HR≥15 years, 1.21 vs 1.11), but remained statistically significant among never smokers (ptrend=0.05).
“the association of rotating night shift work appeared to be stronger among current smokers for all-cause mortality (HR≥15 years, 1.21 vs 1.11), but remained statistically significant also among never smokers (ptrend=0.05).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationThe WHO in 2007 classified night work as a probable carcinogen.
“Thus, the WHO in 2007 classified night work as a probable carcinogen.19”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [19] Straif, 2007, Carcinogenicity of shift-work, painting, and fire-fighting, Lancet Oncol source
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May combine two claims.
PremisecitationObservational studies consistently suggest positive associations of night shift work with cardiovascular disease and cancer risk.
“Observational studies consistently suggest positive associations of night shift work and cardiovascular disease (CVD)2 and cancer risk.3-18”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 10 sources checked- cites [2] Vyas, 2012, Shift work and vascular events: systematic review and meta-analysis, BMJ source
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- cites [3] Hansen, 2001, Increased breast cancer risk among women who work predominantly at night, Epidemiology source
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- cites [4] Hansen, 2012, Nested case-control study of night shift work and breast cancer risk among women in the Danish military, Occup Environ Med source
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- cites [5] Jia, 2013, Does night work increase the risk of breast cancer? A systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological studies, Cancer Epidemiol source
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- cites [6] Lie, 2011, Night work and breast cancer risk among Norwegian nurses: assessment by different exposure metrics, Am J Epidemiol source
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- cites [7] Lie, 2006, Breast cancer and night work among Norwegian nurses, Cancer Causes Control source
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- cites [8] Menegaux, 2013, Night work and breast cancer: a population-based case-control study in France (the CECILE study), Int J Cancer source
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- cites [9] O׳Leary, 2006, Shift work, light at night, and breast cancer on Long Island, New York, Am J Epidemiol source
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- cites [10] Pesch, 2010, Night work and breast cancer—results from the German GENICA study, Scand J Work Environ Health source
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- cites [11] Pronk, 2010, Night shift work and breast cancer risk in a cohort of Chinese women, Am J Epidemiol source
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May combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningThe finding that women with longer durations of rotating night shift work had a higher BMI and tended to gain more weight since age 18 years may be intermediate conditions subsequent to night shift work, and adjustment for them may underestimate associations.
“The finding that women with longer durations of rotating night shift work had a higher BMI and tended to gain more weight since age 18 years may be intermediate conditions subsequent to night shift work, and adjustment for them in multivariable models may underestimate associations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe proportional hazards assumption was tested by including interaction terms between duration of night shift work categories and follow-up time.
“The proportional hazards assumption was tested by including interaction terms between duration of night shift work categories and follow-up time.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitationEach endpoint was adjusted for age and regularly updated information on alcohol consumption, physical exercise, multivitamin use, menopausal status and postmenopausal hormone use, physical examination in the past 2 years, healthy eating score, smoking status, pack-years, and BMI.
“Each endpoint was adjusted for age and regularly updated information throughout follow-up on: alcohol consumption, physical exercise, multivitamin use, menopausal status and postmenopausal hormone use, physical examination in the past 2 years, healthy eating score37 (without components of multivitamin and alcohol, which were adjusted individually), smoking status, pack-years, and BMI.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [37] Green, 2008, The meter of metabolism, Cell source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductreasoningNight shift work information was not updated after 1988, potentially leading to exposure misclassification.
“night shift work information was not updated after 1988, potentially leading to exposure misclassification because nurses may have changed their night shift work status during the 22-year follow-up.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationSelf-reported duration of rotating night shifts cannot be validated, but results are likely accurate because other self-reports were highly accurate in a similar cohort and previous validations of similar questions have shown reasonable reproducibility.
“Although self-reported duration of rotating night shifts cannot be validated, it is likely that results are accurate, because other self-reports were highly accurate in a similar cohort,62 and previous validations of similar questions (e.g., electric blanket use)63 have shown reasonable reproducibility.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [62]
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- cites [63]
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Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
PremisecitationMelatonin exhibits beneficial actions on cardiovascular health by enhancing endothelial function, maintaining metabolic homeostasis, and reducing inflammation.
“They also exhibit beneficial actions on cardiovascular health by enhancing endothelial function, maintaining metabolic homeostasis,38 and reducing inflammation.39,40”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [38] K-Laflamme, 1998, de Champlain J. Impaired basal sympathetic tone and alpha1-adrenergic responsiveness in association with the hypotensive effect of melatonin in spontaneously hypertensive rats, Am J Hypertens source
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- cites [39] Anwar, 2001, Inhibitory effects of melatonin on vascular reactivity: possible role of vasoactive mediators, Comp Biochem Physiol C Toxicol Pharmacol source
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- cites [40] Lucas, 2014, Measuring and using light in the melanopsin age, Trends Neurosci source
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May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationMuch of follow-up was accrued at midlife or around retirement, and NHS2 data suggest <5% of nurses continue night shifts after age 45 and <2% start midlife or later.
“the percentage of nurses working rotating night shifts declines from roughly 40% in their early 20s, to <5% after age 45 years, with only very few women (<2%) starting night shifts midlife or later”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationFollow-up rates for this cohort remain at approximately 90%, and the overall death follow-up is >98% complete.
“Follow-up rates for this cohort remain at approximately 90%, and the overall death follow-up is >98% complete.49”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [49] Hublin, 2010, Shift-work and cardiovascular disease: a population-based 22-year follow-up study, Eur J Epidemiol source
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May combine two claims.
PremisecitationDirect nocturnal light exposure suppresses melatonin production and resets the timing of the circadian clock.
“Direct nocturnal light exposure suppresses melatonin production41 and resets the timing of the circadian clock.33,42,43”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 4 sources checked- cites [41] Honma, 2012, Suprachiasmatic nucleus: cellular clocks and networks, Prog Brain Res source
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- cites [33] Lange, 2010, Effects of sleep and circadian rhythm on the human immune system, Ann N Y Acad Sci source
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- cites [42] Filipski, 2009, Circadian disruption in experimental cancer processes, Integr Cancer Ther source
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- cites [43] Sigurdardottir, 2012, Circadian disruption, sleep loss, and prostate cancer risk: a systematic review of epidemiologic studies, Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev source
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May combine two claims.
Study design and conductcitationIn NHS2, <10% of all nurses worked permanent night shifts; exclusion of these women did not change results of a prior analysis.
“in the NHS2 cohort, where night shift work history was assessed in much greater detail, <10% of all nurses worked permanent night shifts. A potential concern is that these nurses may not have classified themselves as working rotating night shifts in the current analysis; yet, exclusion of these women did not change results of a prior analysis.13”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [13] Schernhammer, 2006, Night work and risk of breast cancer, Epidemiology source
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). The quote only partly states this claim.
Study design and conductown dataAdditional adjustment for husbands' education as an indicator of SES left results virtually unchanged.
“Additional adjustment for husbands’ education (less than high school, some high school, high school graduate, college, graduate school) was performed as the best indicator of SES; further adjustment for nurses’ education left the results virtually unchanged and was therefore not retained in the final models.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Study design and conductnone givenThe prospective study design eliminates recall bias.
“Moreover, the prospective study design eliminates recall bias.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningThe timing of exposure in earlier adult life is not known.
“the timing of exposure in earlier adult life is not known (along with the time between exposure and disease diagnosis).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataAmong women with ≥30 years of rotating night shift work, breast cancer mortality was non-significantly increased by 47% in the current study, somewhat consistent with a previous report in the same cohort describing a significant 36% increase in breast cancer incidence.
“Among women with ≥30 years of rotating night shift work, breast cancer mortality was non-significantly increased by 47% in the current study, which is somewhat consistent with a previous report in the same cohort14 describing a significant 36% increase in breast cancer incidence.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [14] Schernhammer, 2001, Rotating night shifts and risk of breast cancer in women participating in the nurses׳ health study, J Natl Cancer Inst source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataCurrent results suggest potentially increased mortality from renal cancer and myeloma among women with >5 years of rotating night shift work.
“Current results also suggest potentially increased mortality from renal cancer, and myeloma among women with >5 years of rotating night shift work.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
Smoking and obesity are well-established risk factors for CVD and multiple cancers.
“As smoking and obesity are well-established risk factors for CVD and multiple cancers”
The paper relies on this without support.
No unmeasured confounding remains after adjustment for the listed covariates.
“To reduce residual confounding, adjustment for pack-years among former and current smokers, and continuous BMI within each BMI stratum, were performed.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Exposure misclassification is non-differential.
“any remaining non-differential misclassification of the exposure assessment could have biased results, albeit likely toward the null in most situations.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Shift work is an independent risk factor for many chronic conditions, including heart disease.
“Shift work is an independent risk factor for many chronic conditions, including heart disease (133-136), perhaps due to recurring disruptions of the circadian clock itself (e.g., light exposure at unusual circadian phases), or perhaps due to misalignment between the circadian clock and the behaviors (e.g., sleeping and fasting during the day, and being active and eating across the night).”
From Role of the circadian system in cardiovascular disease (2018) · cites this paper as [135]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Person-years category is listed as 6-4 years
MinorThe person-years breakdown uses a 6-4-year category, whereas the stated shift-work categories use 6-14 years.
“those who worked 1–5, 6–4, and ≥15 years on shifts accounted for 41%, 11%, and 7% of person-years, respectively.”
“according to night shift work categories (never, 1–5, 6–14, ≥15 years).”
All-cancer confidence interval differs between abstract and results
MinorThe abstract gives 0.89 as the lower 95% confidence limit for the ≥15-year group, while the Results section gives 0.98 for the same hazard ratio.
“all-cancer mortality (HR≥15years=1.08, 95% CI=0.89, 1.19)”
“HRs of 1.04 (95% CI=0.95, 1.13) and 1.08 (95% CI=0.98, 1.19), respectively.”
Kidney cancer is listed under a >100-death criterion but later has <100 deaths
MinorThe Methods section lists kidney cancer among sites with more than 100 deaths included in the analysis. The Discussion says renal cancer had fewer than 100 deaths.
“Cause-specific death from CVD and cancer sites with >100 deaths included in analysis were: ischemic heart disease (IHD; 410–414), cerebrovascular disease (430–438), and any other CVD (390–459 and 795 excluding 410–414 and 430–438); cancers of the lung (162), breast (174), ovaries (183), pancreas (157), colon or rectum (153), brain (191), kidney (189), uterus (182);”
“Current results also suggest potentially increased mortality from renal cancer, and myeloma among women with >5 years of rotating night shift work. The number of deaths was <100 for each of these cancers;”
Kidney cancer interval conflicts with "non-significant" description
MinorThe kidney cancer hazard ratio for 6-14 years is described as non-significant, but its reported 95% confidence interval, 1.03-2.86, excludes 1.
“There was a non-significant increase in mortality from kidney cancer and myeloma among women with 6–14 and ≥15 years of night work”
“the multivariable HRs were 1.72 (95% CI=1.03, 2.86) and 1.39 (95% CI=0.75, 2.57) for kidney cancer”
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Torquati, L., Mielke, G. I., Brown, W. J., & Kolbe-Alexander, T. (2018) · Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health · doi:10.5271/sjweh.3700 · Cited by 510 · see citing works
Role of the circadian system in cardiovascular disease
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Mammalian circadian systems: Organization and modern life challenges
Finger, A., & Kramer, A. (2021) · Acta Physiologica · doi:10.1111/apha.13548 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
Liu, P. Y. (2019) · The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism · doi:10.1210/jc.2019-00683 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Night shift work and stomach cancer risk in the MCC-Spain study
Gyarmati, G., Turner, M. C., Castaño-Vinyals, G., Espinosa, A., Papantoniou, K., Alguacil, J., Costas, L., Pérez-Gómez, B., Martin Sanchez, V., Ardanaz, E., et al. (2016) · Occupational and Environmental Medicine · doi:10.1136/oemed-2016-103597 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
- Authors
- Gu, F., Han, J., Laden, F., Pan, A., Caporaso, N. E., Stampfer, M. J., Kawachi, I., Rexrode, K. M., Willett, W. C., Hankinson, S. E., Speizer, F. E., & Schernhammer, E. S.
- Affiliations
- National Cancer Institute (US)
- Indiana University Health (US)
- Harvard University (US)
- National University of Singapore (SG)
- Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
- Corresponding author
- Schernhammer, Eva S.
- ORCID
- Venue
- American Journal of Preventive Medicine
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2015-03
- Volume
- 48
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 241-252
- ISSN
- 0749-3797 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC4339532
- OpenAlex
- W2128166603
- Semantic Scholar
- 37330ef4ccbec3364e81e47ae5e3cce3cfae7108
- Cited by
- 202
- References
- 65
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 17 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 20 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 24 · 2017: 16 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 2 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 27.61
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- American Journal of Preventive Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- National University of Singapore (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Cancer Institute (CA50385, CA87969)
- NIH Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (HL034594)
- CDC/The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (OH009803)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Sleep and Work-Related Fatigue
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Endocrine and Autonomic Systems › Circadian rhythm and melatonin
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › General Health Professions › Workplace Health and Well-being
- Keywords
- rotating night shift work, nurses, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, cancer mortality, lung cancer, circadian rhythm disruption, occupational health, Nurses' Health Study
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Age Factors, Cardiovascular Diseases, Female, Humans, Life Style, Middle Aged, Neoplasms, Nurses, Prospective Studies, Risk Factors, Socioeconomic Factors, Time Factors, United States, Work Schedule Tolerance, Health Behavior, Proportional Hazards Models, Women's Health
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