Change in Level of Positive Mental Health as a Predictor of Future Risk of Mental Illness
Open accessAbstract
Objectives. We sought to describe the prevalence of mental health and illness, the stability of both diagnoses over time, and whether changes in mental health level predicted mental illness in a cohort group. Methods. In 2009, we analyzed data from the 1995 and 2005 Midlife in the United States cross-sectional surveys (n = 1723), which measured positive mental health and 12-month mental disorders of major depressive episode, panic, and generalized anxiety disorders. Results. Population prevalence of any of 3 mental disorders and levels of mental health appeared stable but were dynamic at the individual level. Fifty-two percent of the 17.5% of respondents with any mental illness in 2005 were new cases; one half of those languishing in 1995 improved in 2005, and one half of those flourishing in 1995 declined in 2005. Change in mental health was strongly predictive of prevalence and incidence (operationalized as a new, not necessarily a first, episode) of mental illness in 2005. Conclusions. Gains in mental health predicted declines in mental illness, supporting the call for public mental health promotion; losses of mental health predicted increases in mental illness, supporting the call for public mental health protection.
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Higher levels of mental well-being reduce the incidence of mental health problems.
“and that higher levels of mental well-being reduce the incidence of mental health problems [147-149].”
From New evidence in the booming field of online mindfulness: An updated meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (2021) · cites this paper as [148]
The Results section reports that higher positive mental health was associated with lower incidence of mental illness in the MIDUS cohort. The paper describes mental health as predicting illness, not as proven to cause a reduction; it measured new episodes of three specified disorders, not all mental health problems. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredRising well-being over time predicts reductions in mental illness over ten years.
“Increases in well-being across time prospectively predict declines in mental illness across a ten year timespan (Keyes, Dhingra, & Simoes, 2010)”
From Trajectories of change in well-being during cognitive behavioral therapies for anxiety disorders: Quantifying the impact and covariation with improvements in anxiety (2020) · cites this paper as Keyes, Dhingra, & Simoes, 2010
Low levels of wellbeing may increase the risk of experiencing mental ill-health over time.
“as evidence suggests that low levels of wellbeing may increase the risk of experiencing mental ill-health over time [116–118].”
From The Mental Health of Elite-Level Coaches: A Systematic Scoping Review (2024) · cites this paper as [116]
Positive mental health is a protective factor against mental illness.
“This latter finding is in accordance with the finding that positive mental health is a protective factor against mental illness [63, 64].”
From How and for whom does web-based acceptance and commitment therapy work? Mediation and moderation analyses of web-based ACT for depressive symptoms (2016) · cites this paper as [63]
Poorer well-being is linked to higher mortality risk over ten years.
“lower levels of well-being are associated with an increased probability of mortality across a ten year timespan (Keyes & Simoes, 2010).”
From Trajectories of change in well-being during cognitive behavioral therapies for anxiety disorders: Quantifying the impact and covariation with improvements in anxiety (2020) · cites this paper as Keyes & Simoes, 2010
The Results report an association between lower mental health and mental illness in 2005, not mortality. The Methods mention deaths only as a reason for loss to follow-up; no passage found links well-being to mortality over the ten-year period (searched: mortality, death, ten years). (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
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- Authors
- Keyes, C. L. M., Dhingra, S. S., & Simoes, E. J.
- Affiliations
- Emory University (US)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- Venue
- American Journal of Public Health
- Publisher
- American Public Health Association
- Published
- 2010-12
- Volume
- 100
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 2366-2371
- ISSN
- 0090-0036 (ISSN-L)
- 1541-0048
- PMC
- PMC2978199
- OpenAlex
- W2037695402
- Cited by
- 778
- References
- 36
- Citations by year
- 2026: 44 · 2025: 58 · 2024: 76 · 2023: 88 · 2022: 76 · 2021: 70 · 2020: 55 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 42 · 2017: 72 · 2016: 35 · 2015: 26 · 2014: 24 · 2013: 30 · 2012: 16
- FWCI
- 24.49
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- American Journal of Public Health (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
- National Institute on Aging (P01AG020166)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Mental Health Treatment and Access
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Psychological Well-being and Life Satisfaction
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Mental Health Research Topics
- Keywords
- positive mental health, eudaimonia, languishing, mental illness, major depressive episode, panic disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, mental health promotion, mental health protection
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Aged, Anxiety Disorders, Cross-Sectional Studies, Depressive Disorder, Major, Major Depressive Disorder, Female, Humans, Male, Mental Health, Middle Aged, Risk Factors, United States, Cohort Studies, Prevalence, Panic Disorder, Lost to Follow-Up
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