Aspirin in the primary and secondary prevention of vascular disease: collaborative meta-analysis of individual participant data from randomised trials
Open accessAbstract
Background Low-dose aspirin is of definite and substantial net benefit for many people who already have occlusive vascular disease. We have assessed the benefits and risks in primary prevention.Methods We undertook meta-analyses of serious vascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death) and major bleeds in six primary prevention trials (95,000 individuals at low average risk, 660,000 person-years, 3554 serious vascular events) and 16 secondary prevention trials (17,000 individuals at high average risk, 43,000 person-years, 3306 serious vascular events) that compared long-term aspirin versus control. We report intention-to-treat analyses of first events during the scheduled treatment period.Findings In the primary prevention trials, aspirin allocation yielded a 12% proportional reduction in serious vascular events (0.51% aspirin vs 0.57% control per year, p=0.0001), due mainly to a reduction of about a fifth in non-fatal myocardial infarction (0.18%vs 0.23% per year, p<0.0001). The net effect on stroke was not significant (0.20%vs 0.21% per year, p=0.4: haemorrhagic stroke 0.04%vs 0.03%, p=0.05; other stroke 0.16%vs 0.18% per year, p=0.08). Vascular mortality did not differ significantly (0.19%vs 0.19% per year, p=0.7). Aspirin allocation increased major gastrointestinal and extracranial bleeds (0.10%vs 0.07% per year, p<0.0001), and the main risk factors for coronary disease were also risk factors for bleeding. In the secondary prevention trials, aspirin allocation yielded a greater absolute reduction in serious vascular events (6.7%vs 8.2% per year, p<0.0001), with a non-significant increase in haemorrhagic stroke but reductions of about a fifth in total stroke (2.08%vs 2.54% per year, p=0.002) and in coronary events (4.3%vs 5.3% per year, p<0.0001). In both primary and secondary prevention trials, the proportional reductions in the aggregate of all serious vascular events seemed similar for men and women.Interpretation In primary prevention without previous disease, aspirin is of uncertain net value as the reduction in occlusive events needs to be weighed against any increase in major bleeds. Further trials are in progress.Funding UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, and the European Community Biomed Programme.
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In the meta-analysis, the higher relative risk of bleeding with aspirin use than with control was similar among persons with diabetes and those without diabetes.
“Likewise, the higher relative risk of bleeding with aspirin use than with control was similar among persons with diabetes and those without diabetes.”
From Effects of aspirin for primary prevention in persons with diabetes mellitus (2018) · cites this paper as [1]
The Results report a higher relative risk of major gastrointestinal and other extracranial bleeding with aspirin than with control in the primary prevention trials (RR 1.54). They also identify diabetes among risk factors associated with bleeding, but the passages do not compare aspirin’s bleeding relative risk between people with and without diabetes. Searches for a diabetes-specific bleeding comparison did not establish the claimed similarity; page numbers were not provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the meta-analysis, the lower relative risk of serious vascular events among participants with diabetes was similar to that among participants without diabetes.
“Only approximately 4% of participants in those trials had diabetes, and the lower relative risk among them was similar to that observed among participants without diabetes (as was also observed in the context of secondary prevention).”
From Effects of aspirin for primary prevention in persons with diabetes mellitus (2018) · cites this paper as [1]
The Discussion (page unavailable) says that, in the primary-prevention trials, the proportional reduction in serious vascular events did not differ significantly by history of diabetes. This supports the main comparison, but the passages do not establish the citing sentence’s approximately 4% figure or its diabetes-specific comparison in secondary prevention. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe lower risk of serious vascular events with aspirin is similar to the risk reported previously in the Antithrombotic Trialists' Collaboration meta-analysis of primary prevention trials of similar doses of aspirin, which used slightly different outcome definitions.
“The lower risk of serious vascular events is similar to the risk that was reported previously in the Antithrombotic Trialists' Collaboration meta-analysis of primary prevention trials of similar doses of aspirin (which used slightly different outcome definitions”
From Effects of aspirin for primary prevention in persons with diabetes mellitus (2018) · cites this paper as [1]
Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 1 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the Antithrombotic Trialists' Collaboration meta-analysis, the largest reduction was for nonfatal MI, with little effect on CHD death (relative risk 0.95 [95% CI 0.78-1.15]) or total stroke.
“The largest reduction was for nonfatal MI, with little effect on CHD death (relative risk 0.95 [95% CI 0.78-1.15])or total stroke.”
From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: Standards of Care in Diabetes—2025 (2025) · cites this paper as [178]
The Results report that, in primary prevention trials, the reduction in coronary events came mainly from nonfatal MI, with no clear reduction in CHD death; the net effect on stroke was not significant. But the quoted interval for CHD death is a 99% CI, not a 95% CI, and the sentence omits the primary-prevention restriction: the paper reports a significant reduction in total stroke in secondary prevention trials (Findings). (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn that meta-analysis, the largest reduction was for nonfatal MI, with little effect on CHD death (relative risk 0.95 [95% CI 0.78-1.15]) or total stroke.
“The largest reduction was for nonfatal MI, with little effect on CHD death (relative risk 0.95 [95% CI 0.78–1.15]) or total stroke.”
From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: Standards of Care in Diabetes—2026 (2026) · cites this paper as [172]
The Results report that, in primary prevention trials, the reduction in coronary events came mainly from fewer nonfatal MIs, with no clear reduction in CHD mortality. They give the CHD-death estimate as RR 0.95 with a 99% CI of 0.78–1.15, not the claimed 95% CI. The Results also report no net effect on total stroke in primary prevention, but a significant reduction in total stroke in secondary prevention; the claim omits that distinction. (LLM, conf=0.90)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
In that meta-analysis, the approximate 50% higher risk of bleeding with aspirin use than with control counterbalanced much of the benefit in low-risk patients.
“On average, however, the approximate 50% higher risk of bleeding with aspirin use than with control counterbalanced much of the benefit in these low-risk patients.”
From Effects of aspirin for primary prevention in persons with diabetes mellitus (2018) · cites this paper as [1]
Aspirin use increases the risk of bleeding.
“Aspirin use reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events but increases the risk of bleeding; the balance of benefits and hazards for the prevention of first cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes is unclear.”
From Effects of aspirin for primary prevention in persons with diabetes mellitus (2018) · cites this paper as [1]
In the 2009 Antithrombotic Trialists' Collaboration meta-analysis involving 95,000 patients in six primary prevention trials, assignment to aspirin use led to a 12% lower risk of serious vascular events than control (95% CI, 6 to 18).
“The 2009 Antithrombotic Trialists' Collaboration meta-analysis involving 95,000 patients in six primary prevention trials showed that assignment to aspirin use led to a 12% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6 to 18) lower risk of serious vascular events than control. 1”
From Effects of aspirin for primary prevention in persons with diabetes mellitus (2018) · cites this paper as [1]
The balance of benefits and hazards for the prevention of first cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes is unclear.
“Aspirin use reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events but increases the risk of bleeding; the balance of benefits and hazards for the prevention of first cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes is unclear.”
From Effects of aspirin for primary prevention in persons with diabetes mellitus (2018) · cites this paper as [1]
Aspirin use reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events.
“Aspirin use reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events but increases the risk of bleeding; the balance of benefits and hazards for the prevention of first cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes is unclear.”
From Effects of aspirin for primary prevention in persons with diabetes mellitus (2018) · cites this paper as [1]
The Antithrombotic Trialists' Collaboration meta-analysis of six large trials of aspirin for primary prevention in the general population found that aspirin reduced the risk of serious vascular events by 12% (relative risk 0.88 [95% CI 0.82-0.94]).
“Overall, they found that aspirin reduced the risk of serious vascular events by 12% (relative risk 0.88 [95% CI 0.82-0.94]).”
From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: Standards of Care in Diabetes—2025 (2025) · cites this paper as [178]
In an individual participant-level meta-analysis of six large trials of aspirin for primary prevention in the general population, aspirin reduced the risk of serious vascular events by 12% (relative risk 0.88 [95% CI 0.82-0.94]).
“Overall, they found that aspirin reduced the risk of serious vascular events by 12% (relative risk 0.88 [95% CI 0.82–0.94]).”
From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: Standards of Care in Diabetes—2026 (2026) · cites this paper as [172]
In those trials, only approximately 4% of participants had diabetes.
“Only approximately 4% of participants in those trials had diabetes, and the lower relative risk among them was similar to that observed among participants without diabetes (as was also observed in the context of secondary prevention).”
From Effects of aspirin for primary prevention in persons with diabetes mellitus (2018) · cites this paper as [1]
The Results report 95,000 participants in the six primary-prevention trials, and the Discussion addresses participants with diabetes, but neither passage gives the proportion who had diabetes. Searches for “4%,” diabetes prevalence, and baseline characteristics did not locate that figure in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the largest meta-analysis on 95 000 individual participant data of patients at average cardiovascular risk (0.57% MACE/year) from six randomized controlled trials, including 3818 (4%) patients with diabetes, low-dose acetylsalicylic acid significantly reduced MACE versus control (absolute risk reduction 0.06%/year; P = 0.0001), while increasing major extracranial bleed (0.10% vs. 0.07%/year; P
“The largest meta-analysis on 95 000 individual participant data (IPD) of patients at average CV risk (0.57% MACE/year) from six RCTs, included 3818 (4%) patients with diabetes.In the whole cohort, low-dose acetylsalicylic acid (ASA) significantly reduced MACE vs. control (absolute risk reduction [ARR] 0.06%/year; P = 0.0001), while increasing major extracranial bleed (0.10% vs. 0.07%/year;”
From 2023 ESC guidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes. (2023) · cites this paper as [291]
Over 7.4 years, acetylsalicylic acid significantly reduced serious vascular events versus placebo (8.5% vs. 9.6%; RR 0.88; 95% CI, 0.79-0.90; P = 0.01; number needed to treat 91), with a relative benefit similar to the previous meta-analysis.
“Over 7.4 years, ASA significantly reduced serious vascular events vs. placebo (8.5% vs. 9.6%, respectively; RR 0.88; 95% CI, 0.79-0.90;P = 0.01; number needed to treat [NNT] 91; Supplementary data online, Table S11), with a relative benefit similar to the previous meta-analysis.291”
From 2023 ESC guidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes. (2023) · cites this paper as [291]
A similar proportional benefit-risk profile was also observed in the diabetes subgroup.
“A similar proportional benefit-risk profile was also observed in the diabetes subgroup (Supplementary data online, Table S11).”
From 2023 ESC guidelines for the management of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes. (2023) · cites this paper as [291]
In a meta-analysis of 16 trials comprising 17,000 individuals, allocation to aspirin was associated with serious vascular events in 6.7% per year versus 8.2% of controls; total stroke 2.08% versus 2.59% (P=0.002); coronary events 4.3% versus 5.3% (P=0.0001); aspirin was associated with a 10% reduction in total mortality (RR 0.90, 95% CI 0.82-0.99) and a significant excess of major bleeds, but the
“In a meta-analysis of 16 trials comprising 17 000 individuals, the Antithrombotic Trialists' Collaboration, 2009 507 found that allocation to aspirin was associated with serious vascular events in 6.7% of patients per year vs. 8.2% of controls.The risk of total stroke was 2.08% per year vs. 2.59% (P ¼ 0.002) and coronary events 4.3% per year vs. 5.3% (P ¼ 0.0001).Aspirin was associated with a 10%”
From European Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice (version 2012) (2012) · cites this paper as [507]
In a meta-analysis of six large primary prevention trials in the general population, aspirin reduced serious vascular events by 12% (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.82-0.94).
“Overall, they found that aspirin reduced the risk of serious vascular events by 12% (relative risk 0.88 [95% CI 0.82 -0.94]).”
From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: <i>Standards of Care in Diabetes—2023</i> (2023) · cites this paper as [139]
Aspirin had little effect on total stroke in that meta-analysis.
“The largest reduction was for nonfatal MI, with little effect on CHD death (relative risk 0.95 [95% CI 0.78 -1.15]) or total stroke.”
From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: <i>Standards of Care in Diabetes—2023</i> (2023) · cites this paper as [139]
In that meta-analysis, aspirin's largest reduction was for nonfatal MI.
“The largest reduction was for nonfatal MI, with little effect on CHD death (relative risk 0.95 [95% CI 0.78 -1.15]) or total stroke.”
From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: <i>Standards of Care in Diabetes—2023</i> (2023) · cites this paper as [139]
Aspirin had little effect on CHD death (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.78-1.15) in that meta-analysis.
“The largest reduction was for nonfatal MI, with little effect on CHD death (relative risk 0.95 [95% CI 0.78 -1.15]) or total stroke.”
From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: <i>Standards of Care in Diabetes—2023</i> (2023) · cites this paper as [139]
For documented ASCVD, secondary prevention with aspirin carries much more benefit than risk.
“For people with documented ASCVD, use of aspirin for secondary prevention has far greater bene fi t than risk; for this indication, aspirin is still recommended (139).”
From 10. Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Management: <i>Standards of Care in Diabetes—2023</i> (2023) · cites this paper as [139]
In populations without diabetes, the greatest absolute benefit of aspirin therapy (75-162 mg) is for individuals with a 10-year risk of coronary heart disease of 10% or greater.
“In populations without diabetes, the greatest absolute benefit of aspirin therapy (75–162 mg) is for individuals with a 10-year risk of coronary heart disease of 10% or greater49.”
From Diabetes in Older Adults: A Consensus Report (2012) · cites this paper as [49]
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- Authors
- Antithrombotic Trialists' (ATT) Collaboration
- Corresponding author
- Antithrombotic Trialists' (ATT) Collaboration
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2009-05
- Volume
- 373
- Issue
- 9678
- Pages
- 1849-1860
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC2715005
- OpenAlex
- W2100089051
- Cited by
- 3,675
- References
- 31
- Citations by year
- 2026: 84 · 2025: 142 · 2024: 165 · 2023: 208 · 2022: 194 · 2021: 222 · 2020: 233 · 2019: 250 · 2018: 218 · 2017: 244 · 2016: 232 · 2015: 235 · 2014: 233 · 2013: 246 · 2012: 278
- FWCI
- 38.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- ResearchOnline (acceptedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (submittedVersion)
- ResearchOnline (Glasgow Caledonian University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- AstraZeneca
- Brigham and Women's Hospital
- Harvard University
- Florida Atlantic University
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
- Università degli Studi di Milano
- Universidad del Atlántico
- Cancer Research UK
- British Heart Foundation
- University of Oxford
- Trinity College Dublin
- Istituto Auxologico Italiano
- Medical Research Council
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Antiplatelet Therapy and Cardiovascular Diseases
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pharmacology › Inflammatory mediators and NSAID effects
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Acute Ischemic Stroke Management
- Keywords
- aspirin, low-dose aspirin, primary prevention, secondary prevention, vascular disease, myocardial infarction, stroke, vascular death, major bleeding, gastrointestinal bleeding, hemorrhagic stroke, coronary events, bleeding risk, individual patient data, cardiovascular risk factors, net benefit, coronary artery disease, stroke prevention, vascular risk reduction, bleeding risk reduction, cardiovascular disease prevention
- MeSH terms
- Aspirin, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cause of Death, Female, Fibrinolytic Agents, Hemorrhage, Humans, Male, Primary Prevention, Research Design, Risk Factors, Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic, Treatment Outcome, Practice Guidelines as Topic, Sex Distribution, Risk Assessment, Patient Selection, Risk Reduction Behavior, Secondary Prevention
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