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Protein 3D Structure Computed from Evolutionary Sequence Variation
Open accessAbstract
The evolutionary trajectory of a protein through sequence space is constrained by its function. Collections of sequence homologs record the outcomes of millions of evolutionary experiments in which the protein evolves according to these constraints. Deciphering the evolutionary record held in these sequences and exploiting it for predictive and engineering purposes presents a formidable challenge. The potential benefit of solving this challenge is amplified by the advent of inexpensive high-throughput genomic sequencing.In this paper we ask whether we can infer evolutionary constraints from a set of sequence homologs of a protein. The challenge is to distinguish true co-evolution couplings from the noisy set of observed correlations. We address this challenge using a maximum entropy model of the protein sequence, constrained by the statistics of the multiple sequence alignment, to infer residue pair couplings. Surprisingly, we find that the strength of these inferred couplings is an excellent predictor of residue-residue proximity in folded structures. Indeed, the top-scoring residue couplings are sufficiently accurate and well-distributed to define the 3D protein fold with remarkable accuracy.We quantify this observation by computing, from sequence alone, all-atom 3D structures of fifteen test proteins from different fold classes, ranging in size from 50 to 260 residues, including a G-protein coupled receptor. These blinded inferences are de novo, i.e., they do not use homology modeling or sequence-similar fragments from known structures. The co-evolution signals provide sufficient information to determine accurate 3D protein structure to 2.7-4.8 Å C(α)-RMSD error relative to the observed structure, over at least two-thirds of the protein (method called EVfold, details at http://EVfold.org). This discovery provides insight into essential interactions constraining protein evolution and will facilitate a comprehensive survey of the universe of protein structures, new strategies in protein and drug design, and the identification of functional genetic variants in normal and disease genomes.
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![Figure 3 Progress in contact prediction using the maximum entropy method. Extraction of evolutionary information about residue coupling and predicted contacts from multiple sequence alignments works much better using the global statistical model (right, Direct Information, DI, Equation 3) than the local statistical model (left, Mutual Information, MI, Equation 1). Predicted contacts for DI (red lines connecting the residues predicted to be coupled from sequence information) are better positioned in the experimentally observed structure (grey ribbon diagram), than those for MI (left, blue lines), shown here for the RAS protein (upper) and ELAV4 protein (lower). The DI residue pairs are also more evenly distributed along the chain and overlap more accurately with the contacts in the observed structure (red stars [predicted, grey circles [observed] in contact map; center, upper right triangle) than those using MI (blue [predicted], grey circles [observed]; center, lower left triangle). Details of contact maps for all proteins comparing predicted and observed contacts are in Figures S1 and S2, Text S1.](/paper-figures/ad0edff5338c41479018a65a69fdb4cd/protein-3d-structure-computed-from-evolutionary-sequence-variation-figure-3.jpg)
![Figure 4 Accuracy of blinded 3D structure inference. A. The overall performance of the de novo structure prediction reported here based on contacts inferred from evolutionary information (EICs), ranges from good to excellent for the 15 test proteins (on left: 3D structure type [α = α-helix-containing, β = β-strand-containing, 7tm-α = containing seven trans-membrane helices]; in parentheses: size of protein domain/number of residues used for Cα-RMSD error calculation; on bar: Uniprot database ID). Larger bars mean better performance, i.e., lower Cα-RMSD co-ordinate error. Left: performance for the top ranked structure for each target protein out of 400–560 (depending on the size of the protein, 20 structures per NC bin, NC in steps of 10, details in Appendix A3 and A6) candidate structures in blind prediction mode; right: performance of the best structure, in hindsight, out of 20 candidate structures generated, for 20 sets of constraints ranging from 10∶200, in steps of 10. This reflects what would be achievable with better ranking criteria or independent post-prediction validation of structure quality (Table 1; details of blind ranking scores in Web Appendix A5). Other well-accepted methods for error assessment, such as GDT-TS and TM score are useful for comparison purposes (Table S1, Web Appendix A6). B. Ranking score of each candidate structure (quantifying expected structure quality) versus Cα-RMSD error. Ideally, higher-ranking scores correspond to lower error. The distribution of the candidate structures (black dots) for Elav4, Ras and Trypsin shows, in retrospect, that the ranking criteria used here are relatively useful and help in anticipating which structures are likely to be best (plots for all tested proteins in Figure S5). In blind prediction mode, a list of predicted candidate 3D structure has to be ranked by objective and automated criteria, with a single top ranked structure or a set of top ranked structures nominated as preferred predictions.](/paper-figures/64041048bfb54288ba5e0cbf30e5f3b2/protein-3d-structure-computed-from-evolutionary-sequence-variation-figure-4.jpg)

![Figure 6 Key requirement of global statistical model for correct prediction. Evaluation of accuracy in terms of predicted contacts (A) and predicted 3D structures (B). (A) The two global models, the Bayesian network model (BNM, green [13]) and direct information model (DI, red, this work and [47]) have a consistently high rate of correctly predicted contacts (true positives) among the top NC ranked residue pairs; two local models, mutual information (MI, green, equation 1) and SCA (black, [66]) have a consistently lower rate of true positives. Here, local refers to statistical independence of each pair i,j, while global refers to statistical consistency of all pairs. In (B), only the predicted 3D structures (green, BNM; red, EIC) for the global models agree well with the observed structure (grey); Cα-RMSDs is calculated over the number or residues in parentheses (Pymol sessions for all structures in Web Appendix A4). Attempts to generate 3D structures for the two local methods MI and SCA failed (not shown). Comparing (A) and (B) confirms that a higher rate of true positives for contact prediction leads to better 3D structures and that for DI one needs at least a true positive rate of about 0.5 for about 100 predicted contacts, depending on size and other details of particular protein families. Interestingly, a false positive rate as high as about 0.3–0.5 can still be consistent with good 3D structure prediction.](/paper-figures/52b17479105741088d935bf580d2a27c/protein-3d-structure-computed-from-evolutionary-sequence-variation-figure-6.jpg)

![Figure 8 Computational pipeline for protein folding. The MSA for the protein family is typically generated by a sequence similarity search in a large database of protein sequences to collect related sequences that are likely to have similar 3D structures. Correlations between sequence positions i and j are calculated from observed frequencies of amino acids in single MSA columns and column pairs. By inferring a minimal statistical model of full length-sequences, which is consistent with these correlations (Text S1), direct coupling strengths eij(A,B) between any pairs of residues are deduced. They help to derive distance constraints, which in turn are used to produce folded structures using the following steps: distance geometry generation of approximate folds, molecular dynamics simulated annealing using standard force fields, and chirality filtering. Here, we use MSAs from the PFAM collection of pre-aligned sequence families [1].](/paper-figures/f4f2f40fd6d74aa0b045bc172eb8d6ce/protein-3d-structure-computed-from-evolutionary-sequence-variation-figure-8.jpg)
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“The premise of methods to infer structure based on evolutionary couplings is that, because amino acids exist and evolve in the context of 3D structure, they are not free to evolve independently, but instead co-evolve in patterns reflective of the underlying structure.”
From Predicting multiple conformations via sequence clustering and AlphaFold2 (2024) · cites this paper as [9]
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“One of the major insights leveraged by AlphaFold 1,2 comes from the use of evolutionary covariations that can be extracted from large-scale multiple sequence alignments.[49][50][51][52][53][54]”
From AlphaFold and Implications for Intrinsically Disordered Proteins (2021) · cites this paper as [50]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Marks, D. S., Colwell, L. J., Sheridan, R., Hopf, T. A., Pagnani, A., Zecchina, R., & Sander, C.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology (GB)
- Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (US)
- Italian institute for Genomic Medicine (IT)
- Politecnico di Torino (IT)
- Corresponding author
- Marks, Debora S.
- Venue
- PLoS ONE
- Publisher
- Public Library of Science (PLoS)
- Published
- 2011-12-07
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- e28766
- ISSN
- 1932-6203 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3233603
- OpenAlex
- W2061042699
- Cited by
- 1,144
- References
- 84
- Citations by year
- 2026: 61 · 2025: 60 · 2024: 47 · 2023: 72 · 2022: 96 · 2021: 104 · 2020: 90 · 2019: 110 · 2018: 91 · 2017: 107 · 2016: 71 · 2015: 74 · 2014: 72 · 2013: 56 · 2012: 29
- FWCI
- 20.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- PLoS ONE (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PORTO@Iris (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- PORTO Publications Open Repository TOrino (Politecnico di Torino) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
- Studienstiftung des Deutschen Volkes
- National Institutes of Health (NIH U54, CA143798)
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/H028064/1)
- National Cancer Institute (U54CA143798)
- National Institute of General Medical Sciences (R01GM106303)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Protein Structure and Dynamics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Structural Biology › Enzyme Structure and Function
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › RNA and protein synthesis mechanisms
- Keywords
- protein structure prediction, coevolution, maximum entropy model, multiple sequence alignment, de novo structure prediction, protein evolution, G protein-coupled receptors, protein engineering
- MeSH terms
- Animals, Humans, Protein Conformation, Proteins, Rhodopsin, Trypsin, Genetic Variation, Drug Design, Reproducibility of Results, Models, Statistical, Genome, Protein Structure, Tertiary, Evolution, Molecular, Entropy, Computational Biology, Catalytic Domain, Imaging, Three-Dimensional
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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