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Cited by 0Electoral Systems and Political ParticipationPopulism, Right-Wing MovementsSocial and Intergroup Psychology

¿Demasiado lejos? Cómo la polarización mal percibida alimenta la polarización afectiva en España

Open access
Rojo-Martínez, José Miguel·2025·Papers. Revista de Sociologia
DOI 10.5565/rev/papers.3363
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Abstract

España es un país con altos niveles de polarización afectiva. Algunos estudios sostienen que esto es consecuencia de un aumento de la polarización ideológica, mientras que otros destacan el efecto de ciertos temas, así como la influencia de las redes sociales, las élites y los cambios en la oferta partidista. En este artículo proponemos otra explicación basada en el efecto de las percepciones erróneas. En primer lugar, mostramos que los individuos que tienen una percepción más irrealista de la posición ideológica de un partido tienden a desarrollar también mayores sentimientos de antipatía hacia dicho partido. En segundo lugar, demostramos que la polarización percibida incrementa la polarización afectiva individual. Nuestras actitudes están influenciadas por los juicios que hacemos sobre la realidad política, los cuales, a su vez, están condicionados (y sesgados) por nuestras identidades grupales. Finalmente, construimos un indicador de falsa polarización para analizar en qué medida la diferencia entre la polarización percibida y la polarización real del sistema de partidos se asocia con niveles individuales más altos de polarización afectiva. Con esta estrategia también confirmamos que, a medida que aumenta la percepción de falsa polarización, lo hace también la dispersión del afecto entre los distintos grupos partidistas. En resumen, este artículo explora la influencia de las percepciones sobre las actitudes ciudadanas. Estas percepciones tienden con frecuencia a exagerar artificialmente las diferencias con los grupos externos, lo que puede llevarnos erróneamente a pensar que tenemos poco en común.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Using the CEMOP 2021 Spanish political polarization survey, the paper argues that Spaniards overestimate ideological polarization in the party system and that this misperception is associated with greater affective polarization. It finds that misperceived distance from a party predicts antipathy toward it, and that both perceived polarization and false polarization are positively associated with individual affective polarization.

Key findings

  • Actual party-system polarization was 0.49, while average perceived polarization was 0.73, a gap of 0.24 points; perceived polarization exceeded actual polarization by approximately 49%.
  • Misperceived ideological distance significantly predicted lower feeling-thermometer scores toward all four main parties: PSOE β = −.228, UP β = −.122, PP β = −.221, and Vox β = −.258 (all p < 0.01).
  • Perceived polarization was positively associated with affective polarization (β = .155, p < 0.01); an estimated increase in perceived polarization from 0.730 to 0.982 was linked to an increase in affective polarization from 2.44 to 2.62, or 7.38%.
  • False polarization was also positively associated with affective polarization (β = .077, p < 0.01); 43.1% of respondents had false polarization levels equal to or higher than 0.4, while only 18.4% had levels lower than 0.2.

Methods

  • Data come from the First National Survey of Political Polarization in Spain conducted by CEMOP (2021), with a representative sample of 1,236 Spanish adults aged 18 and older; sampling was stratified multistage with gender and age quotas and strata by autonomous community and habitat size.
  • Dependent variables were feeling thermometers toward parties (0–10) for H1 and individual affective polarization using Wagner’s (2021) spread formula for multiparty systems across PSOE, PP, Vox, and UP (range 0–5).
  • Main independent variables were misperceived distance between a party’s actual ideological position and an individual’s perceived position, perceived party-system polarization, and false polarization; analysis used multiple OLS linear regression models with sociodemographic and political controls.

Limitations

  • The paper states that perception calculations rely on interviewees’ self-reported positions, which may be affected by social desirability biases and could make perceptual deviation reflect modified real preferences rather than misperception.
  • The paper states that it does not consider meta-perceptions, which can fuel reactive hostility.
  • The paper states that causal direction is uncertain: misperceived polarization may be a consequence rather than a driver of affective polarization, and highly polarized individuals may alter perceptions to justify existing bias.
  • Evident from the text: the cross-sectional survey design cannot establish causality, and actual party positions are based on voters’ ideological self-placement rather than manifestos or elite positioning, which the paper itself notes can involve measurement error, temporal instability, and self-report bias.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.5565/rev/papers.3363

Cites

56 of 56 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

14 of 53 cited sources checked · 9 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    Spain is marked by high levels of affective polarization.

    “Spain is marked by high levels of affective polarization.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Gidron et al. (2020) source
    • cites Torcal and Comellas (2022) source
    • cites Crespo et al., 2021a

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Interpretationcitation

    The effect of perceived polarization on affective polarization may play out through the framework of social norms.

    “we argue that the effect of perceived polarization on affective polarization may play out through the framework of social norms (Connors, 2023;Lane et al., 2024).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Connors, 2023 source
    • cites Lane et al., 2024 source

      The Introduction (page unavailable) proposes social norms as one explanation for party affective polarization, and the Discussion (page unavailable) explores norms as a mechanism in political polarization. The passages do not address whether perceived polarization affects affective polarization through social norms, so they support the proposed framework but not that specific pathway. (LLM, conf=0.84)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • Rests on an assumption: Perceived polarization causally drives affective polarization rather than the reverse.
  • Findingown data

    Perceived polarization increases individual affective polarization.

    “Secondly, we show that perceived polarization increases individual affective polarization.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Individuals with a more unrealistic perception of a party's ideological position develop stronger feelings of antipathy toward that party.

    “Firstly, we show that individuals with a more unrealistic perception of a party's ideological position will also develop stronger feelings of antipathy toward that party.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    As the sense of false polarization grows, the dispersion of affect across party groups increases.

    “We also confirm with this strategy that, as the sense of false polarization grows, so does the dispersion of affect across party groups.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 38
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 53

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Identities influence the perception of facts, and based on this perception, intergroup relations develop.

    “In particular, they influence the perception of facts, and, based on this perception, intergroup relations develop (Xiao et al., 2016;Cole et al., 2023).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Xiao et al., 2016 source
    • cites Cole et al., 2023

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Intensified bias and hostility toward outgroups is evidence that political conflict has deepened; opponents' positions lead to considerable animosity and we tend to consider them illegitimate and morally reprehensible.

    “Intensified bias and hostility toward outgroups is evidence that political conflict has deepened; although we no longer disagree exclusively in our preferences on how best to solve social problems, our opponents' positions lead to considerable animosity and we tend to consider them illegitimate and morally reprehensible (Tappin & McKay, 2019).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Tappin & McKay, 2019 source

      The paper describes US partisans as viewing opponents’ moral character negatively, and its Discussion reports substantial moral polarization. But it does not establish that political conflict has deepened over time or that opponents’ positions cause considerable animosity; the Discussion instead calls the association between moral polarization and hostile behavior small and somewhat tenuous. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.88)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Attitudes are influenced by judgments about political reality, which are influenced and biased by group identities.

    “Attitudes are influenced by judgments about political reality, which in turn are influenced (and biased) by group identities.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Allport, 1954

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Xiao et al., 2016 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    This generates a Manichean conception of politics as a permanent zero-sum game.

    “This generates a Manichean conception of politics as a permanent zero-sum game (Piazza, 2023).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Piazza, 2023 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Torcal and Comellas (2022) highlight two key moments of heightened affective polarization in Spain between 1993 and 2019 based on evaluations of political leaders: during the 2008 and 2015 general elections.

    “Torcal and Comellas (2022) highlight two key moments of heightened affective polarization in Spain between 1993 and 2019 based on evaluations of political leaders: during the 2008 and 2015 general elections.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Torcal and Comellas (2022) source

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Perception is conditioned by identity categorization and mediates the influence of identity on attitudes and behaviors by activating stereotypes.

    “Perception as a psychological process is conditioned by identity categorization and, in turn, mediates the influence of identity on attitudes and behaviors by activating stereotypes (Xiao et al., 2016).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Xiao et al., 2016 source

      The Perceptual Model of Intergroup Relations section says social identification influences perception and proposes that perceptual processes can mediate intergroup relations. It does not say that perception mediates effects on attitudes and behavior by activating stereotypes; its stereotype example chiefly describes stereotype-related concepts influencing perception. The paper also notes that evidence for the path from perception to intergroup relations is more limited. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Growing sorting of social identities and ideological positions within party groups reduces cross-cutting identities, increases intragroup homogeneity, and exacerbates the sensation of intergroup estrangement.

    “a) the grow-ing sorting of social identities and ideological positions within party groups, which reduces cross-cutting identities, increases intragroup homogeneity, and exacerbates the sensation of intergroup estrangement (Mason, 2018;Harteveld, 2021)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Mason, 2018 source
    • cites Harteveld, 2021 source

      Sections 1 and 2.2 describe how alignment of political and non-political identities reduces cross-cutting identities and makes political groups appear more distinct and homogeneous, fostering negative feelings toward outgroups. The claim presents this as a causal effect, whereas section 2.2 says the paper's observational data cannot establish causal direction with certainty. Page numbers are not provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.82)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Partisanship acts as a powerful social identity.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Thinking that outgroups are highly extremist assigns them an undesirable characteristic and points to the moral superiority of the ingroup.

    “Thinking that outgroups are highly extremist assigns them an undesirable characteristic and points to the moral superiority of the ingroup (Rojo-Martínez et al., 2023).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Rojo-Martínez et al., 2023 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    American citizens estimate that U.S. parties are 20% further apart than they actually are.

    “As other research has shown, such as Levendusky and Malhotra (2016:384), American citizens estimate that U.S. parties are 20% further apart than they actually are.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Levendusky and Malhotra (2016:384) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Even beliefs about measurable political and economic indicators can reflect partisan bias.

    “According to Bullock et al. (2015), even beliefs about measurable political and economic indicators can reflect partisan bias.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Bullock et al. (2015) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted).

    Premisecitation

    More ideological distance from a candidate or party increases affective polarization.

    “This hypothesis combines findings indicating that more ideological distance from a candidate or party increases affective polarization (Rogowski & Sutherland, 2016;Harteveld, 2021;Ryan, 2023) with research on partisan bias since the ideological distance is perceived and not actual in this case.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 3 sources checked
    • cites Rogowski & Sutherland, 2016 source
    • cites Harteveld, 2021 source

      Section 4.4.2 (page unavailable) reports that greater ideological polarization among parties predicts greater affective polarization within countries. But the paper does not establish that an individual’s ideological distance from a candidate or party increases their affective polarization; Section 2.1 describes the individual-level evidence as mixed. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites Ryan, 2023 source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Informing individuals of their inaccurate beliefs can be beneficial for intergroup relations.

    “informing individuals of their inaccurate beliefs can be beneficial for intergroup relations (Ruggeri et al., 2021).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ruggeri et al., 2021 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    When mean perceived polarization increases from 0.730 to 0.982, affective polarization increases from 2.44 to 2.62, an estimated increase of 7.38%.

    “when the mean of perceived polarization increase from 0.730 μ to 0.982 + , affective polarization will increase from 2.44 to 2.62 (recall that the statistical range of the indicator is 5).This example represents an estimated increase of 7.38% in the dependent variable.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Spaniards exaggerate their ideological differences and perceive an unreal polarization in the political system.

    “This article has shown the extent to which Spaniards exaggerate their ideological differences and perceive an unreal polarization in the political system.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The sample is representative of the Spanish population, so findings generalize to Spaniards.

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the sample, 43.1% of individuals presented false polarization levels equal to or higher than 0.4 (maximum 0.51), and only 18.4% have false polarization levels lower than 0.2.

    “In our sample, 43.1% of the individuals presented false polarization levels equal to or higher than 0.4 (the maximum being 0.51).In turn, only 18.4% have false polarization levels lower than 0.2.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationnone given

    Affective polarization in Spain may have been driven by mistaken assumptions that lead us to overestimate the extent of actual disagreement with our rivals.

    “However, affective polarization in this context may have been driven by mistaken assumptions that lead us to overestimate the extent of actual disagreement with our rivals.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Human beings are convinced the world is as they think it is.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Partisanship becomes a source of social segregation, extends beyond policy preferences to influence emotions, acts expressively and non-instrumentally by influencing personal identity, and is a shortcut for building judgments and making decisions.

    “In short, partisanship becomes a source of social segregation, extends beyond policy preferences to influence the field of emotions, acts in an expressive and non-instrumental way by influencing our personal identity and, finally, is a great shortcut for building judgments and making decisions (Huddy & Bankert, 2017;Goldenberg et al., 2023).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Huddy & Bankert, 2017 source
    • cites Goldenberg et al., 2023

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • The authors state this as an assumption: Partisanship acts as a powerful social identity.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    The reinforcement of intergroup differentiation results in a cognitive gap, so partisans see themselves differently from how other partisans perceive them.

    “The reinforcement of intergroup differentiation results in a cognitive gap, so partisans see themselves differently from how other partisans perceive them.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Partisanship acts as a powerful social identity.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Partisan identity has a strong influence on self-concept and generates homophily in social relationships, that is, a preference for those who are politically similar.

    “b) partisan identity has a strong influence on self-concept and generates homophily in social relationships, that is, a preference for those who are politically similar (Huber & Malhotra, 2017).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Huber & Malhotra, 2017 source
    • The authors state this as an assumption: Partisanship acts as a powerful social identity.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Perceptions often artificially exaggerate differences with outgroups, which can lead individuals to mistakenly think they have little in common.

    “These perceptions often tend to artificially exaggerate differences with outgroups, which can lead individuals to mistakenly think they have little in common.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Our mind distorts reality, leading us to develop attitudes that further reinforce group preferences and biases.

    “Our mind plays a trick on us by distorting reality, leading us to develop attitudes that further reinforce group preferences and biases.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Human beings are convinced the world is as they think it is.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    One of the most common perceptual biases caused by identity is the exaggeration of differences between groups, known as intergroup accentuation, explained by the need for positive distinctiveness.

    “One of the most common perceptual biases caused by identity is the exaggeration of differences between groups, a phenomenon known as "intergroup accentuation," which has traditionally been explained in social psychology by the need for positive distinctiveness (Rothermund & Deutsch, 2024).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Rothermund & Deutsch, 2024 source
    • Rests on an assumption: Human beings are convinced the world is as they think it is.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Spain is a strongly polarized society, having moved from ordinary political disagreements to an affective gap between partisan groups.

    “This evidence supports the general impression that Spain is a strongly polarized society”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Crespo et al., 2021a

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Identities have cognitive effects.

    “Identities have cognitive effects (Allport, 1954).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Allport, 1954

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Our perception of the degree of differentiation is usually biased and responds to the need to consolidate group boundaries.

    “Although our perception of the degree of differentiation is usually biased and responds to the need to consolidate group boundaries, human beings are convinced the world is as they think it is.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Human beings are convinced the world is as they think it is.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Misperceived distance fuels negative partisanship, which is the main constituent of affective polarization.

    “misperceived distance fuels negative partisanship, which is the main constituent of affective polarization.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Perceived polarization causally drives affective polarization rather than the reverse.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    The attribution of positions to the outgroup (first-order beliefs) seeks to maximize contrasts and to reduce accepted levels of diversity and variability in the perception of its members.

    “The attribution of positions to the outgroup (i.e., first-order beliefs 2 ) seeks to maximize contrasts, but also to reduce accepted levels of diversity and variability in the perception of its members.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Human beings are convinced the world is as they think it is.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The First National Survey of Political Polarization in Spain was administered to a representative sample of the Spanish population aged 18 years and older with a total of 1,236 cases.

    “The survey was administered to a representative sample of the Spanish population aged 18 years and older with a total of 1,236 cases.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The true percentage of Republicans holding extreme views was 19 points lower than the estimate for the Democrats.

    “In 2019, a report published by More in Common reinforced the findings of Levendusky and Malhotra (2016) by detecting that the true percentage of Republicans holding extreme views was 19 points lower than the estimate for the Democrats.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Yudkin et al., 2019 source

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Two clear effects of perceptions on polarization are a rejection effect on those we overestimate the furthest away and an affective dispersion effect that arises from inaccurate inference.

    “We observed two clear effects of perceptions on polarization: a rejection effect on those we overestimate the furthest away (we dislike them because we think they think in a manner we dislike) and an affective dispersion effect that arises from inaccurate inference.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    When the political system is perceived to be highly polarized, an extraordinary level of political confrontation may become normalized, and unmoderated attitudes and positions may be assumed as acceptable behavior.

    “When the political system is perceived to be highly polarized, an extraordinary level of political confrontation may become normalized, and it may even be assumed that the acceptable behavior shared by the members of the different groups is the adoption of unmoderated attitudes and positions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Perceived polarization causally drives affective polarization rather than the reverse.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The greater the perceived distance between the system's extreme and relevant parties, the more significant the electoral outcome becomes.

    “The greater the perceived distance between the system's extreme and relevant parties, the more significant the electoral outcome becomes-particularly regarding which party governs or shapes public policy.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Perceived polarization causally drives affective polarization rather than the reverse.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Categorization emphasizes perceived differences between parties, with the opposing group's position always exaggerated more than the ingroup's position.

    “According to the results of Westfall et al. (2015:149-151), categorization emphasizes perceived differences between parties (i.e., the opposing group's position is always exaggerated more than the ingroup's position 3 )”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Westfall et al. (2015:149-151) source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given

    The effects of false polarization have yet to be demonstrated in detail, and it remains unclear whether perceptual biases contribute to affective polarization.

    “Despite these initial approaches, the effects of false polarization have yet to be demonstrated in detail.More specifically, it remain unclear whether these perceptual biases do indeed contribute to affective polarization.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    A more distorted view of the political arena may encourage the mobilization (not only behavioral, but also attitudinal) of individuals who feel that political competition will imply significantly greater changes and a notable risk to their interests.

    “A more distorted view of the political arena may encourage the mobilization (not only behavioral, but also attitudinal) of individuals who feel that political competition will imply significantly greater changes and a notable risk to their interests.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Misperceptions about others are not measurement errors but structured distortions shaped by identity and motivated reasoning.

    “As Bursztyn and Yang (2022) argue, misperceptions about others are not measurement errors but structured distortions shaped by identity and motivated reasoning.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Bursztyn and Yang (2022) source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    Through a representativeness heuristic, we infer that the most extreme positions of some members of a group are the group's most common traits.

    “Through a representativeness heuristic, we infer that the most extreme positions of some members of a group are, in fact, the group's most common traits (Ahler & Sood, 2023).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ahler & Sood, 2023 source
    • Rests on an assumption: Human beings are convinced the world is as they think it is.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Individuals may feel that dangerous changes will develop depending on who wins or loses, which can cause anxiety.

    “Individuals may come to feel that dangerous changes will develop depending on who wins or loses, which can even cause anxiety.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Perceived polarization causally drives affective polarization rather than the reverse.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    The false polarization effect is not the main driver of affective polarization, but rather an adjuvant or amplifying element.

    “However, this effect is not the main driver of affective polarization, but rather an adjuvant or amplifying element.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Increased perception of polarization may increase interest in politics and engagement.

    “Since we perceive there is a higher level of ideological divergence, this may increase both our interest in politics and engagement”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Perceived polarization causally drives affective polarization rather than the reverse.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The size of actual polarization in the U.S. was medium, but perceived polarization exceeded it by a factor of two.

    “Previously, Westfall et al. (2015) found that the size of actual polarization in the U.S. was medium, but the perceived polarization exceeded it by a factor of two.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Westfall et al. (2015) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Torcal (2023) analyzed the importance of the perception of partisan supply to understand affective polarization.

    “More recently, Torcal (2023) analyzed the importance of the perception of partisan supply to understand affective polarization.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Torcal (2023)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    These types of misperceptions respond to two widespread cognitive mechanisms: categorical thinking and simplification.

    “These types of misperceptions respond to two widespread cognitive mechanisms: categorical thinking and simplification (Fernbach & Van Boven, 2022).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Fernbach & Van Boven, 2022 source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Stratified multistage sampling was used, with gender and age quotas and construction of strata by crossing the autonomous community of residence and habitat size.

    “Stratified multistage sampling was the procedure used, with the application of gender and age quotas and construction of strata by crossing the autonomous community of residence and habitat size.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductcitation

    The decision to analyze party system polarization based on voters' ideological self-placement is a generally accepted approach.

    “The decision to analyze party system polarization based on voters' ideological self-placement is a generally accepted approach (Sartori, 1976;Sani & Sartori, 1983), though it is not without limitations.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites Sartori, 1976

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites Sani & Sartori, 1983

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    A sense of effervescence and excitement due to excessive perception of conflict may occur, making us more attentive and involved, which is a polarizing factor.

    “A sense of effervescence and excitement (due to the excessive perception of conflict) may occur.This can make us more attentive and involved in what is happening and, as other studies have shown, this is a polarizing factor (Suk et al., 2022).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Suk et al., 2022

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • Rests on an assumption: Perceived polarization causally drives affective polarization rather than the reverse.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Highlighting differences with rivals implicitly enhances ingroup status and reinforces group ties as shared characteristics with outgroups are reduced.

    “By highlighting differences with rivals, there is also an implicit enhancement of ingroup status and a reinforcement of group ties as shared characteristics with outgroups are reduced (McGarty & Penny, 1988).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites McGarty & Penny, 1988 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The perception of greater polarization may trigger defensive responses to an unreal sense of threat.

    “the perception of greater polarization may trigger defensive responses to an (unreal) sense of threat.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Perceived polarization causally drives affective polarization rather than the reverse.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    False polarization could be interpreted as a product of ingroup favoritism bias.

    “Consequently, false polarization could be interpreted as a product of ingroup favoritism bias (Dimdins, 2003).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Dimdins, 2003

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    Perceived polarization predicts political engagement.

    “and perceived polarization predicts political engagement.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Westfall et al. (2015:149-151) source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The perception gap was 27 points.

    “Conversely, the perception gap was somewhat higher (27 points) (Yudkin et al., 2019).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Yudkin et al., 2019 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The misestimation of the extremism of rival groups via stereotypical generalization is accompanied by a tendency to hyperrepresent outgroup homogeneity.

    “The misestimation of the extremism of rival groups via stereotypical generalization is accompanied by a tendency to hyperrepresent outgroup homogeneity (Ostrom & Sedikides, 1992).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Ostrom & Sedikides, 1992 source
    • Rests on an assumption: Human beings are convinced the world is as they think it is.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Analyzing party system polarization based on voters' ideological self-placement is susceptible to measurement error, temporal instability, and potential bias in self-reporting.

    “These include susceptibility to measurement error, temporal instability, and potential bias in self-reporting-issues that will be”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Accentuating differences is not only prompted by a desire for ingroup distinction but is also the result of memory problems that make us more prone to remembering a group's extreme prototype and leads to overgeneralizations.

    “Other theories add that accentuating differences is not only prompted by a desire for ingroup distinction but is the result of memory problems that make us more prone to remembering a group's extreme prototype and leads to overgeneralizations (Rothermund & Deutsch, 2024).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Rothermund & Deutsch, 2024 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisereasoning

    This leads to the assumption that all individuals in the outgroup share the same type of position.

    “This leads to the assumption that all individuals in the outgroup share the same type of position.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Human beings are convinced the world is as they think it is.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S1 (asserted).

    Premisecitation

    Perceived polarization influences negative evaluations of opposing parties more than actual polarization.

    “This is a relevant task since, in view of the revised literature, we conclude that perceived polarization influences negative evaluations of opposing parties more than actual polarization, although we almost always focus on the latter (Enders & Armaly, 2019).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Enders & Armaly, 2019 source

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The more intense the sense of ideological divergence, the greater the antipathy toward the outgroups.

    “In addition, the more intense the sense of ideological divergence, the greater the antipathy toward the outgroups (Rogowski & Sutherland, 2016).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Rogowski & Sutherland, 2016 source

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The perception of polarization could discourage agreements and compromises between parties.

    “Furthermore, the perception of polarization could discourage agreements and compromises between parties.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Perceived polarization causally drives affective polarization rather than the reverse.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The partisan divide in Spain is largely rooted in disagreements over facts, resulting in tribes that inhabit distinct cognitive realities.

    “The partisan divide in our country is, to a large extent, rooted in disagreements over facts, resulting in tribes that inhabit distinct cognitive realities.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The sample is representative of the Spanish population, so findings generalize to Spaniards.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The perception calculations are based on interviewees' self-reported positions.

    “the perception calculations are based on the interviewees' self-reported positions.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Accentuating differences and simplification are recurrent tools among political elites, especially during election campaigns.

    “Accentuating differences and simplification are recurrent tools among political elites, especially during election campaigns, to make it easier for voters to better distinguish the partisan supply and to make a more direct choice.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    The media participates in exacerbated rhetoric that presents a more desolate panorama than really exists.

    “The media also participates in the exacerbated rhetoric that presents us with a far more desolate panorama than really exists, since it is evident that conflict and tension capture attention better than agreement.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The perception gap on levels of systemic ideological polarization is between 16 and 17 points higher between PP and Vox voters and between 23 and 28 percentage points between PSOE and UP voters.

    “Crespo et al. (2021b:83) show that the perception gap on levels of systemic ideological polarization is between 16 and 17 points higher between the Partido Popular (PP) party (center-right, conservative) and Vox party (radical-right) voters and between 23 and 28 percentage points between the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) party (centerleft, social democratic) and Unidas Podemos (UP) part”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites Crespo et al. (2021b)

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given

    The study does not consider meta-perceptions.

    “the study does not consider meta-perceptions”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Emphasizing what unites us or showing that it is not so much what differentiates us contributes to reducing affective hostilities.

    “Emphasizing what unites us or showing that it is not so much what differentiates us contributes to reducing affective hostilities.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: The sample is representative of the Spanish population, so findings generalize to Spaniards.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    False polarization allows us to keep alive partisan links, mobilize the electorate, and avoid vote conversion processes.

    “False polarization allows us to keep alive partisan links, mobilize the electorate, and avoid vote conversion processes.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Study design and conductnone given

    Members of a group may be influenced by social desirability biases that lead them to place themselves in less extreme positions.

    “Members of a group, in expressing what they think, may be influenced by social desirability biases that lead them to place themselves in less extreme positions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Identity may mediate and amplify misperceptions.

    “We recognize that identity may mediate and amplify misperceptions.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).

    Interpretationreasoning

    Misperceptions about what rivals think can be explained by three cognitive mechanisms: accentuation of intergroup differences, naïve realism, and use of stereotypes.

    “Misperceptions about what our rivals think can be explained by three important cognitive mechanisms: the tendency to accentuate intergroup differences to reinforce ingroup status and the sense of belonging; naïve realism”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
69 of 69

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Partisanship acts as a powerful social identity.

    “If we assume that partisanship acts as a powerful social identity, we should pay attention to how categorization and intergroup comparison processes affect the way we perceive the world.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Human beings are convinced the world is as they think it is.

    “Although our perception of the degree of differentiation is usually biased and responds to the need to consolidate group boundaries, human beings are convinced the world is as they think it is.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Perceived polarization causally drives affective polarization rather than the reverse.

    “perceived polarization in the system exacerbates polarization in the individual”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The sample is representative of the Spanish population, so findings generalize to Spaniards.

    “This article has shown the extent to which Spaniards exaggerate their ideological differences and perceive an unreal polarization in the political system.”
4 of 4

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • False-polarization effect confuses standardized and unstandardized coefficients

    Minor

    A one-unit change in the predictor corresponds to the unstandardized coefficient, 0.588, not the standardized coefficient, 0.077. The stated expected change therefore contradicts Table 8.

  • Actual polarization uses a different Vox position from Table 1

    Minor

    Table 1 reports Vox's actual ideological position as 7.21, but its calculation of actual party-system polarization uses 7.12. Using the reported Vox and UP positions gives (7.21 − 2.70)/9 ≈ 0.50, rather than the reported 0.49.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

5 of the 61 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 6

  1. Allport, Gordon W. (1954). The Nature of Prejudice. Addison–Wesley.
  2. Dimdins, Girts; Montgomery, Henry and Austers, Ivars (2003). “The False Polarization Effect in Explanations of Attitudinal Behavior”. Current Research in Social Psychology, 8 (20), 275–301.
  3. Levendusky, Matthew and Malhotra, Neil (2013). “The Effect of False Polarization: Are Perceptions of Political Polarization Self-Fulfilling Prophecies”. Annual Meeting and Exhibition of the American Political Science Association, 2 (6), 1–34.
  4. Sani, Giacomo and Sartori, Giovanni (1983). Polarization, Fragmentation and Competition in Western Democracies. In: Daalder, Hans and Mair, Peter (Eds.) Western European Party Systems: Continuity and Change, pp. 307–40. Sage.
  5. Sartori, Giovanni. (1976). Parties and Party Systems. Cambridge University Press.
  6. Tajfel, Henri and Turner, John C. (1979). An Integrative Theory of Intergroup Conflict. In: Austin, William G. and Worchel, Stephen (Eds.). The Social Psychology of Intergroup Relations (pp. 33–48). Brooks/Cole.

Related

Authors
Rojo-Martínez, J. M.
ORCID
Rojo-Martínez, José Miguel
Venue
Papers. Revista de Sociologia
Publisher
Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona
Published
2025-07-07
Volume
110
Issue
3
Pages
e3363
ISSN
  • 0210-2862 (ISSN-L)
  • 2013-9004
DOI
10.5565/rev/papers.3363
OpenAlex
W4412090455
Semantic Scholar
4f3f150d95e94feba68bac49e8d77406e9dc77ce
Cited by
0
References
61
FWCI
0.00
Type
journal article
Language
es
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Papers Revista de Sociologia (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • Dipòsit Digital de Documents de la UAB (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • RACO (Revistes Catalanes amb Accés Obert) (Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Funders
  • Fundación Séneca (21876/PI/22)
  • Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (FPU20/01033)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Electoral Systems and Political Participation
  • Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Populism, Right-Wing Movements
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Social and Intergroup Psychology
Keywords
affective polarization, perceived polarization, ideological polarization, party identification, group identity, Spanish party system, political attitudes

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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

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Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-13.

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