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Prevalence of 12-Month Alcohol Use, High-Risk Drinking, and DSM-IV Alcohol Use Disorder in the United States, 2001-2002 to 2012-2013: Results From the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions

Open access
Grant, Bridget F., Chou, S. Patricia, Saha, Tulshi D., Pickering, Roger P., Kerridge, Bradley T., Ruan, W. June, Huang, Boji, Jung, Jeesun +3 more·2017·JAMA Psychiatry
DOI 10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2017.2161PMC PMC5710229
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Abstract

Importance: Lack of current and comprehensive trend data derived from a uniform, reliable, and valid source on alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV alcohol use disorder (AUD) represents a major gap in public health information. Objective: To present nationally representative data on changes in the prevalences of 12-month alcohol use, 12-month high-risk drinking, 12-month DSM-IV AUD, 12-month DSM-IV AUD among 12-month alcohol users, and 12-month DSM-IV AUD among 12-month high-risk drinkers between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013. Design, Setting, and Participants: The study data were derived from face-to-face interviews conducted in 2 nationally representative surveys of US adults: the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, with data collected from April 2001 to June 2002, and the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions III, with data collected from April 2012 to June 2013. Data were analyzed in November and December 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures: Twelve-month alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV AUD. Results: The study sample included 43 093 participants in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions and 36 309 participants in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions III. Between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013, 12-month alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV AUD increased by 11.2%, 29.9%, and 49.4%, respectively, with alcohol use increasing from 65.4% (95% CI, 64.3%-66.6%) to 72.7% (95% CI, 71.4%-73.9%), high-risk drinking increasing from 9.7% (95% CI, 9.3%-10.2%) to 12.6% (95% CI, 12.0%-13.2%), and DSM-IV AUD increasing from 8.5% (95% CI, 8.0%-8.9%) to 12.7% (95% CI, 12.1%-13.3%). With few exceptions, increases in alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV AUD between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013 were also statistically significant across sociodemographic subgroups. Increases in all of these outcomes were greatest among women, older adults, racial/ethnic minorities, and individuals with lower educational level and family income. Increases were also seen for the total sample and most sociodemographic subgroups for the prevalences of 12-month DSM-IV AUD among 12-month alcohol users from 12.9% (95% CI, 12.3%-17.5%) to 17.5% (95% CI, 16.7%-18.3%) and 12-month DSM-IV AUD among 12-month high-risk drinkers from 46.5% (95% CI, 44.3%-48.7%) to 54.5% (95% CI, 52.7%-56.4%). Conclusions and Relevance: Increases in alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV AUD in the US population and among subgroups, especially women, older adults, racial/ethnic minorities, and the socioeconomically disadvantaged, constitute a public health crisis. Taken together, these findings portend increases in many chronic comorbidities in which alcohol use has a substantial role.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013, 12-month alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV alcohol use disorder (AUD) increased significantly in the US adult population. Increases were greatest among women, older adults, racial/ethnic minorities, and the socioeconomically disadvantaged.

Key findings

  • 12-month alcohol use rose from 65.4% to 72.7% (relative increase, 11.2%); high-risk drinking rose from 9.7% to 12.6% (29.9%); DSM-IV AUD rose from 8.5% to 12.7% (49.4%).
  • Among 12-month alcohol users, DSM-IV AUD increased from 12.9% to 17.5% (35.7%); among 12-month high-risk drinkers, DSM-IV AUD increased from 46.5% to 54.5% (17.2%).
  • Increases were significant across most sociodemographic subgroups, with notable rises among women (AUD +83.7%), adults aged ≥65 years (AUD +106.7%), black individuals (AUD +92.8%), and those with lower education or family income.

Methods

  • Repeated cross-sectional analysis of two nationally representative face-to-face US adult surveys: NESARC 2001-2002 (n = 43,093) and NESARC-III 2012-2013 (n = 36,309).
  • Outcomes were 12-month alcohol use, high-risk drinking (exceeding daily drinking limits at least weekly), and DSM-IV AUD, assessed with AUDADIS-IV/AUDADIS-5.
  • Weighted cross-tabulations estimated prevalences; SUDAAN was used for complex survey design, and 2-sided t tests compared survey estimates (P < .05).

Limitations

  • Stated: NESARC and NESARC-III lacked biological testing for substance use; homeless and incarcerated populations were not covered, potentially underestimating outcomes; AUDADIS interviewers were not clinicians, though a validation substudy showed similar prevalence and good concordance; NESARC-III response rate was acceptable (60.1%) but lower than NESARC (81.0%), with weighting to compensate for nonresponse.
  • Stated: three AUD items were slightly reworded and three additional abuse questions appeared in NESARC-III, but the paper reports near-perfect concordance with and without the additional questions (κ = 0.97 for NESARC and κ = 0.98 for NESARC-III).
  • Evident from the design: repeated cross-sectional surveys cannot establish causality, and alcohol measures rely on self-report.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2017.2161

Cites

136 of 136 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

  • Findingown data
    § Results

    Increases in 12-month alcohol use between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013 were statistically significant across all sociodemographic subgroups.

    “Significant increases, seen across all sociodemographic subgroups, were particularly notable among women (15.8%), racial/ethnic minorities (from 17.2% among Hispanic to 29.1% among Asian or Pacific Islander individuals), adults 65 years and older (22.4%), and respondents with lower educational level and family income (range, 11.7%-22.3%).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Results

    12-month DSM-IV alcohol use disorder prevalence in US adults increased from 8.5% (95% CI, 8.0%-8.9%) in 2001-2002 to 12.7% (95% CI, 12.1%-13.3%) in 2012-2013, a relative increase of 49.4%.

    “The prevalence of 12-month DSM-IV AUD increased significantly from 8.5% to 12.7% (change, 49.4%) in the total population (Table 3).”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “DSM-IV AUD increasing from 8.5% (95% CI, 8.0%-8.9%) to 12.7% (95% CI, 12.1%-13.3%)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Discussion

    The prevalence of DSM-IV alcohol use disorder among 12-month alcohol users increased from 12.9% in 2001-2002 to 17.5% in 2012-2013, a 35.7% increase.

    “the prevalence of AUD among 12-month users (12.9% in 2001-2002 and 17.5% in 2012-2013)”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “Total 12.9 (12.3-17.5) 17.5 (16.7-18.3) a 35.7”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Results

    Increases in 12-month high-risk drinking between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013 were statistically significant for all sociodemographic subgroups except Native Americans and respondents residing in rural areas.

    “Significant increases in high-risk drinking were also seen for all sociodemographic subgroups except Native Americans and respondents residing in rural areas.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data
    § Results

    12-month DSM-IV alcohol use disorder among 12-month high-risk drinkers increased from 46.5% (95% CI, 44.3%-48.7%) in 2001-2002 to 54.5% (95% CI, 52.7%-56.4%) in 2012-2013.

    “12-month DSM-IV AUD among 12-month high-risk drinkers from 46.5% (95% CI, 44.3%-48.7%) to 54.5% (95% CI, 52.7%-56.4%)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 21
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 13

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Results

    12-month high-risk drinking prevalence in US adults increased from 9.7% (95% CI, 9.3%-10.2%) in 2001-2002 to 12.6% (95% CI, 12.0%-13.2%) in 2012-2013, a relative increase of 29.9%.

    “The prevalence of 12-month high-risk drinking increased significantly between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013 from 9.7% to 12.6% (change, 29.9%) in the total population (Table 2).”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “high-risk drinking increasing from 9.7% (95% CI, 9.3%-10.2%) to 12.6% (95% CI, 12.0%-13.2%)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingreasoning
    § Discussion

    Between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013, increases in alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and alcohol use disorder were generally much greater among minorities than among white individuals, consistent with substantial increases among individuals with the lowest educational levels and family incomes.

    “Between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013, increases in alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and AUD were generally much greater among minorities than among white individuals, results that are consistent with substantial increases among individuals with the lowest educational levels and family incomes seen in this study.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Discussion

    Increases in high-risk drinking and alcohol use disorder among women were 57.9% and 83.7%, respectively, compared with 15.5% and 34.7% among men.

    “Increases in high-risk drinking and AUD among women (57.9% and 83.7%, respectively) relative to men (15.5% and 34.7%, respectively) were alarming”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Discussion

    Between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013, high-risk drinking in the United States increased almost 30%, from 9.7% to 12.6%, representing approximately 20.2 million and 29.6 million Americans, respectively.

    “High-risk drinking increased almost 30% from 9.7% to 12.6%, representing approximately 20.2 million and 29.6 million Americans, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Results

    Increases in alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV alcohol use disorder were greatest among women, older adults, racial/ethnic minorities, and individuals with lower educational level and family income.

    “Increases in all of these outcomes were greatest among women, older adults, racial/ethnic minorities, and individuals with lower educational level and family income.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Discussion

    Between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013, increases among older adults were 22.4% for alcohol use, 65.2% for high-risk drinking, and 106.7% for alcohol use disorder.

    “increases in alcohol use (22.4%), high-risk drinking (65.2%), and AUD (106.7%) among older adults”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Discussion

    Between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013, 12-month DSM-IV alcohol use disorder in the United States increased 49.4%, from 8.5% to 12.7%, representing approximately 17.6 million and 29.9 million Americans, respectively.

    “There was a 49.4% increase in 12-month DSM-IV AUD during this time from 8.5% to 12.7% (representing approximately 17.6 million and 29.9 million Americans, respectively)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data
    § Results

    Notable increases in DSM-IV alcohol use disorder among 12-month high-risk drinkers were seen for women (34.7%), black individuals (25.7%), Hispanic individuals (16.8%), respondents aged 45 to 64 years (34.8%) and 65 years and older (58.1%), and those residing in urban areas (21.1%).

    “Notable increases were seen for women (34.7%), those who were black (25.7%) or Hispanic (16.8%), respondents aged 45 to 64 years (34.8%) and 65 years and older (58.1%), and those residing in urban areas (21.1%).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Discussion

    The Wave 1 NESARC and NESARC-III have large sample sizes and detailed measures of alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV alcohol use disorder that have been extensively tested and validated, in addition to rigorous epidemiologic study methods.

    “These limitations are balanced by the numerous strengths of the Wave 1 NESARC and NESARC-III, including their large sample sizes and detailed measures of alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV AUD that have been extensively tested and validated, in addition to their rigorous epidemiologic study methods.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § Methods

    The 2001-2002 NESARC overall survey response rate was 81.0%.

    “The sampling frame response rate was 98.5%, the household response rate was 88.5%, and the person response rate was 93.0%, yielding an overall survey response rate of 81.0%.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § Discussion

    The 49.4% increase in DSM-IV alcohol use disorder between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013 was much greater than the 14.8% increase observed between 1991-1992 and 2001-2002.

    “much greater than the corresponding 14.8% increase in DSM-IV AUD observed between 1991-1992 (7.4%) and 2001-2002 (8.5%).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductreasoning
    § Discussion

    Some population segments, such as the homeless and those who are incarcerated, were not covered in either survey, potentially leading to underestimation of alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV alcohol use disorder.

    “Like other national surveys, some population segments were not covered in either survey (eg, the homeless and those who are incarcerated), potentially leading to underestimation of alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV AUD.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § Conclusions

    Between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013, an increase in alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and alcohol use disorder occurred in the total US population and across almost all sociodemographic subgroups, especially women, older adults, racial/ethnic minorities, and the socioeconomically disadvantaged.

    “Between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013, an increase in alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and AUD occurred in the total US population and across almost all sociodemographic subgroups, especially women, older adults, racial/ethnic minorities, and the socioeconomically disadvantaged.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Discussion

    Weighting that compensated for nonresponse facilitated comparisons between the surveys.

    “Weighting that compensated for nonresponse facilitated comparisons between the surveys.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Premisenone given
    § Discussion

    The National Health Interview Survey showed a 6.0% increase in 12-month alcohol use, while the National Survey on Drug Use and Health showed a 9.1% increase in 12-month alcohol use.

    “The National Health Interview Survey showed a 6.0% increase in 12-month alcohol use, while the National Survey on Drug Use and Health showed a 9.1% increase in 12-month alcohol use.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).

    Premisenone given
    § Discussion

    Earlier studies demonstrated a narrowing of the gender gap in high-risk drinking and alcohol use disorder between 1991-1992 and 2001-2002.

    “consistent with earlier studies demonstrating a narrowing of the gender gap in these drinking patterns and AUD between 1991-1992 and 2001-2002.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisenone given
    § Discussion

    Per capita alcohol consumption based on alcohol sales data rose 6.4%.

    “Parallel increases were also seen in per capita alcohol consumption based on alcohol sales data, which rose 6.4%.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Conclusions

    These increases constitute a public health crisis that may have been overshadowed by increases in much less prevalent substance use (marijuana, opiates, and heroin) during the same period.

    “These increases constitute a public health crisis that may have been overshadowed by increases in much less prevalent substance use (marijuana, opiates, and heroin) during the same period.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Discussion

    NESARC and NESARC-III lacked biological testing for substance use.

    “NESARC and NESARC-III lacked biological testing for substance use.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning
    § Discussion

    The smaller increase in 12-month high-risk drinking (21.3%) and the larger increase in 12-month alcohol use (48.6%) seen between the early 1900s and the early 2000s were associated with a much lower increase in alcohol use disorder (14.9%), underscoring the more important influence of increases in high-risk drinking relative to alcohol use on increases in alcohol use disorder.

    “The smaller increase in 12-month high-risk drinking (21.3%) and the larger increase in 12-month alcohol use (48.6%) seen between the early 1900s and the early 2000s were associated with a much lower increase in AUD (14.9%), again underscoring the more important influence of increases in high-risk drinking relative to alcohol use on increases in AUD.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Discussion

    A NESARC-III validation substudy comparing AUDADIS and clinician diagnoses of 12-month alcohol use disorder showed similar prevalence and good concordance.

    “AUDADIS interviewers were not clinicians, but a NESARC-III validation substudy comparing AUDADIS and clinician diagnoses of 12-month AUD showed similar prevalence and good concordance.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).

    Interpretationown data
    § Results

    The increases in alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV alcohol use disorder in the US population and among subgroups, especially women, older adults, racial/ethnic minorities, and the socioeconomically disadvantaged, constitute a public health crisis.

    “Increases in alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV AUD in the US population and among subgroups, especially women, older adults, racial/ethnic minorities, and the socioeconomically disadvantaged, constitute a public health crisis.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § Methods

    The 2001-2002 NESARC data were adjusted for oversampling and nonresponse and were weighted to represent the civilian US population based on the 2000 Decennial Census.

    “Data were adjusted for oversampling and nonresponse and were weighted to represent the civilian US population based on the 2000 Decennial Census.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Discussion

    The two surveys are unique in providing a uniform source of alcohol information and alcohol use disorder to examine trends over time.

    “These 2 surveys are also unique in providing a uniform source of alcohol information and AUD to examine trends over time.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data
    § Discussion

    The increases in alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and alcohol use disorder among older adults between 2001-2002 and 2012-2013 were substantial and unprecedented relative to earlier surveys.

    “were substantial and unprecedented relative to earlier surveys.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: Older adults have had consistently lower rates than others of alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and alcohol use disorder over the past 40 years.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § Methods

    The NESARC-III overall response rate was 60.0%, comparable with other current US national surveys.

    “The household response rate was 72.0%, the person-level response rate was 84.0%, and the overall response rate was 60.0%, which were comparable with other current US national surveys.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given
    § Discussion

    The NESARC-III response rate was acceptable (60.1%) but was lower than that of NESARC (81.0%).

    “The NESARC-III response rate was acceptable (60.1%) but was lower than that of NESARC (81.0%).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data
    § Methods

    The NESARC-III data were adjusted for oversampling and nonresponse and were weighted to represent the US civilian population based on the 2012 American Community Survey.

    “Data were adjusted for oversampling and nonresponse and were weighted to represent the US civilian population based on the 2012 American Community Survey.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
28 of 28

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There is a lack of current and comprehensive trend data derived from a uniform source on alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV alcohol use disorder since the early 2000s, representing a major gap in public health information.

    “Lack of current and comprehensive trend data derived from a uniform source on alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and DSM-IV AUD since the early 2000s represents a major gap in public health information.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Between the early 1990s and the early 2000s, 12-month alcohol consumption increased from 44.0% to 65.4%, 12-month high-risk drinking increased from approximately 8.0% to 9.7%, and DSM-IV alcohol use disorder increased from 7.4% to 8.5%.

    “Between the early 1990s and the early 2000s, 12-month alcohol consumption increased from 44.0% to 65.4%, 12-month high-risk drinking increased from approximately 8.0% to 9.7%, and DSM-IV AUD increased from 7.4% to 8.5%.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    High-risk drinking and alcohol use disorder are important risk factors for morbidity and mortality from various chronic diseases and injuries.

    “High-risk drinking and AUD are important risk factors for morbidity and mortality from fetal alcohol spectrum disorders, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, stroke, liver cirrhosis, several types of cancer and infections, pancreatitis, type 2 diabetes, and various injuries.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Older adults have had consistently lower rates than others of alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and alcohol use disorder over the past 40 years.

    “Older adults have had consistently lower rates than others of alcohol use, high-risk drinking, and AUD over the past 40 years.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Treatment rates for alcohol use disorder remain low (less than 10%) despite the significant rise in high-risk drinking and alcohol use disorder and the existence of a broad spectrum of evidence-based and effective behavioral and pharmacological approaches.

    “Treatment rates for AUD remain low (<10%) despite the significant rise in high-risk drinking and AUD and the existence of a broad spectrum of evidence-based and effective behavioral and pharmacological approaches.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The older adult population will increase from 40 million in 2010 to 80 million in 2030.

    “the projected increase in the size of this segment of the population (from 40 million in 2010 to 80 million in 2030)”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Wealth inequality between minorities and whites has widened during and after the 2008 recession.

    “Wealth inequality between minorities and whites has widened during and after the 2008 recession”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Adversities that disproportionately affect racial/ethnic minorities include family income and educational disparities, unemployment, residential segregation, discrimination, decreased access to health care, and increased stigma associated with drinking.

    “Adversities that disproportionately affect racial/ethnic minorities include family income and educational disparities, unemployment, residential segregation, discrimination, decreased access to health care, and increased stigma associated with drinking.”
8 of 8

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Although SUDs remain more prevalent in men than in women, the gender gap has been narrowing, possibly in part due to changes in gender roles.

    “Although SUDs remain more prevalent in men than in women, the gender gap has been narrowing 150,328- 330 , possibly in part due to changes in gender roles 331 .”

    From Substance use disorders: a comprehensive update of classification, epidemiology, neurobiology, clinical aspects, treatment and prevention (2023) · cites this paper as [328]

    The Discussion reports a narrowing gender gap in high-risk drinking and alcohol use disorder (AUD), with larger increases among women than men. The cited paper studies alcohol, so it does not establish the trend for substance use disorders (SUDs) generally. The gender-roles explanation is attached to a different citation in the citing sentence and is not assessed here. (LLM, conf=0.86)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • 2001-2002 confidence interval is not centered on its estimate

    Minor

    The reported 95% CI for AUD among alcohol users runs from 12.3% to 17.5%, whose midpoint is 14.9%, not the reported estimate of 12.9%. Unlike the other intervals in the table, its upper bound is far farther from the estimate than its lower bound, suggesting an erroneous bound.

    Reported 12.9 · recomputed 14.9

  • Earlier comparison is dated to the 1900s instead of the 1990s

    Minor

    The discussion places the earlier increases between the early 1900s and early 2000s, while the introduction identifies the period for those same increases as the early 1990s to early 2000s.

  • NESARC-III overall response rate has two values

    Minor

    The methods report a 60.0% overall response rate for NESARC-III, but the limitations section reports 60.1% for the same survey. The values differ at the precision printed.

3 of 3

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 29

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Authors
Grant, B. F., Chou, S. P., Saha, T. D., Pickering, R. P., Kerridge, B. T., Ruan, W. J., Huang, B., Jung, J., Zhang, H., Fan, A., & Hasin, D. S.
Affiliations
  • National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (US)
  • New York State Psychiatric Institute (US)
Corresponding author
Grant, Bridget F.
ORCID
Venue
JAMA Psychiatry
Publisher
American Medical Association (AMA)
Published
2017-09-01
Volume
74
Issue
9
Pages
911
ISSN
2168-622X (ISSN-L)
DOI
10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2017.2161
PMC
PMC5710229
OpenAlex
W2744192774
Semantic Scholar
192ff84504ad4a8617e96051ed59a8e9ec69c9d8
Cited by
1,362
References
136
Citations by year
2026: 87 · 2025: 128 · 2024: 156 · 2023: 146 · 2022: 193 · 2021: 192 · 2020: 182 · 2019: 166 · 2018: 101 · 2017: 11
FWCI
98.55
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • JAMA Psychiatry (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (K05AA014223)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Substance Abuse Treatment and Outcomes
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Pathology and Forensic Medicine › Alcohol Consumption and Health Effects
  • Social Sciences › Psychology › Social Psychology › Mental Health Treatment and Access
Keywords
alcohol use prevalence, hazardous drinking, alcoholism, temporal trends, NESARC, binge drinking, alcohol-related problems, United States adults, 12-month prevalence
MeSH terms
Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Alcohol Drinking, Educational Status, Ethnicity, Female, Health Surveys, Humans, Income, Male, Middle Aged, Risk-Taking, Sex Factors, United States, Prevalence, Alcohol-Related Disorders, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Young Adult

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-09.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-09.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

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