Cited by 883Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsRisk Perception and ManagementClimate Change Communication and Perception

Motivated numeracy and enlightened self-government

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KAHAN, DAN M., PETERS, ELLEN, DAWSON, ERICA CANTRELL, SLOVIC, PAUL·2017·Behavioural Public Policy

Abstract

Why does public conflict over societal risks persist in the face of compelling and widely accessible scientific evidence? We conducted an experiment to probe two alternative answers: the ‘science comprehension thesis’ (SCT), which identifies defects in the public's knowledge and reasoning capacities as the source of such controversies; and the ‘identity-protective cognition thesis’ (ICT), which treats cultural conflict as disabling the faculties that members of the public use to make sense of decision-relevant science. In our experiment, we presented subjects with a difficult problem that turned on their ability to draw valid causal inferences from empirical data. As expected, subjects highest in numeracy – a measure of the ability and disposition to make use of quantitative information – did substantially better than less numerate ones when the data were presented as results from a study of a new skin rash treatment. Also as expected, subjects’ responses became politically polarized – and even less accurate – when the same data were presented as results from the study of a gun control ban. But contrary to the prediction of SCT, such polarization did not abate among subjects highest in numeracy; instead, it increased. This outcome supported ICT, which predicted that more numerate subjects would use their quantitative-reasoning capacity selectively to conform their interpretation of the data to the result most consistent with their political outlooks. We discuss the theoretical and practical significance of these findings.

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Registry

Crossref · 10.1017/bpp.2016.2

Cites

96 of 96 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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1 of the 97 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.

Research works printed but not linked: 2

  1. 10.1037/0278-7393.16.3.509 · DOI
  2. Sunstein, 2003, What's Available? Social Influences and Behavioral Economics, Northwestern University Law Review, 97

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Authors
KAHAN, D. M., PETERS, E., DAWSON, E. C., & SLOVIC, P.
Affiliations
  • Yale University (US)
  • The Ohio State University (US)
  • Cornell University (US)
  • University of Oregon (US)
Corresponding author
KAHAN, DAN M.
Venue
Behavioural Public Policy
Published
2017-05
Volume
1
Issue
1
Pages
54-86
ISSN
  • 2398-063X (ISSN-L)
  • 2398-0648
OpenAlex
W3124377921
Cited by
883
References
97
Citations by year
2026: 40 · 2025: 76 · 2024: 95 · 2023: 98 · 2022: 102 · 2021: 95 · 2020: 103 · 2019: 106 · 2018: 50 · 2017: 35 · 2016: 30 · 2015: 25 · 2014: 26 · 2013: 1 · 2012: 1
FWCI
61.26
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Behavioural Public Policy (publishedVersion)
  • SSRN Electronic Journal (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Scholars' Bank (University of Oregon) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
  • Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
Keywords
political polarization, societal risk, public understanding of science, causal inference, quantitative reasoning, gun control, partisanship

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