Abnormalities of confidence in psychiatry: an overview and future perspectives
Open accessAbstract
Our behavior is constantly accompanied by a sense of confidence and its’ precision is critical for adequate adaptation and survival. Importantly, abnormal confidence judgments that do not reflect reality may play a crucial role in pathological decision-making typically seen in psychiatric disorders. In this review, we propose abnormalities of confidence as a new model of interpreting psychiatric symptoms. We hypothesize a dysfunction of confidence at the root of psychiatric symptoms either expressed subclinically in the general population or clinically in the patient population. Our review reveals a robust association between confidence abnormalities and psychiatric symptomatology. Confidence abnormalities are present in subclinical/prodromal phases of psychiatric disorders, show a positive relationship with symptom severity, and appear to normalize after recovery. In the reviewed literature, the strongest evidence was found for a decline in confidence in (sub)clinical OCD, and for a decrease in confidence discrimination in (sub)clinical schizophrenia. We found suggestive evidence for increased/decreased confidence in addiction and depression/anxiety, respectively. Confidence abnormalities may help to understand underlying psychopathological substrates across disorders, and should thus be considered transdiagnostically. This review provides clear evidence for confidence abnormalities in different psychiatric disorders, identifies current knowledge gaps and supplies suggestions for future avenues. As such, it may guide future translational research into the underlying processes governing these abnormalities, as well as future interventions to restore them.
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A number of studies have linked local and global metacognitive biases to individual differences in transdiagnostic mental health symptoms, including anxiety, depression, self-esteem, and compulsivity.
“A number of studies have linked local and global metacognitive biases to individual differences in transdiagnostic mental health symptoms, including anxiety, depression, self-esteem, and compulsivity (Hoven et al. 2019, Seow et al. 2021).”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Hoven et al. 2019
The Results (Transdiagnostic psychiatry; page not supplied) link confidence differences to anxiety, depression, and compulsive-symptom dimensions. The cited passages do not establish a link with self-esteem or distinguish local from global metacognitive biases; self-esteem appears in reference titles, not as a reported finding. (LLM, conf=0.85)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn schizophrenia, confidence in delusional beliefs is not subject to critical revision.
“как и уверенность этих пациентов в их бредовых убеждениях не подлежит критическому пересмотру.”
From Когнитивные механизмы дисфункционального принятия решений при психических расстройствах (2025) · cites this paper as Hoven et al., 2019
The Introduction (page unavailable) suggests that overconfidence in erroneous beliefs could underpin delusional thinking in schizophrenia. The Results > Schizophrenia section (page unavailable) reports inflated confidence in errors and reduced ability to distinguish correct from incorrect responses. Neither passage establishes the stronger claim that confidence in delusional beliefs is not subject to critical revision. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn schizophrenia, objective task accuracy does not match excessive subjective confidence in the correctness of answers.
“При шизофрении объективная точность выполнения задач не соответствует чрезмерной субъективной уверенности в правильности ответов (Hoven et al., 2019)”
From Когнитивные механизмы дисфункционального принятия решений при психических расстройствах (2025) · cites this paper as Hoven et al., 2019
Schizophrenia is an example of impaired metacognition at the local level.
“Примером нарушения метапознания на локальном уровне может служить шизофрения.”
From Когнитивные механизмы дисфункционального принятия решений при психических расстройствах (2025) · cites this paper as Hoven et al., 2019
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Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis
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How Local and Global Metacognition Shape Mental Health
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Metacognitive Computations for Information Search: Confidence in ControlPreprint
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- Authors
- Hoven, M., Lebreton, M., Engelmann, J. B., Denys, D., Luigjes, J., & van Holst, R. J.
- Affiliations
- Amsterdam University Medical Centers (NL)
- University of Geneva (CH)
- Tinbergen Institute (NL)
- Netherlands Institute for Neuroscience (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Hoven, Monja
- Venue
- Translational Psychiatry
- Published
- 2019-10-21
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 268-268
- ISSN
- 2158-3188 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6803712
- OpenAlex
- W2980772488
- Cited by
- 171
- References
- 153
- Citations by year
- 2026: 19 · 2025: 29 · 2024: 30 · 2023: 36 · 2022: 25 · 2021: 17 · 2020: 14 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 2.35
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Translational Psychiatry (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Pure Amsterdam UMC (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- KNAW research portal (Royal Academy of Art and Sciences (KNAW)) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- UvA-DARE (University of Amsterdam) (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- PsyArXiv (OSF Preprints) (submittedVersion)
- Archive ouverte UNIGE (University of Geneva) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Universiteit van Amsterdam
- Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (916-18-119, 451-15-015)
- Amsterdam Brain and Cognition
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Schizophrenia research and treatment
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Mental Health and Psychiatry
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Keywords
- confidence judgments, metacognition, psychiatric symptoms, obsessive-compulsive disorder, schizophrenia, addiction, depression, anxiety, prodromal symptoms, symptom severity, transdiagnostic mechanisms, decision-making
- MeSH terms
- Mental Disorders, Brain, Humans, Judgment, Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice, Psychiatry, Self-Assessment, Translational Research, Biomedical
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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