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Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands
Open accessAbstract
Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW), deployable with croplands, has potential use for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) removal (CDR), which is now necessary to mitigate anthropogenic climate change 1. ERW also has possible co-benefits for improved food and soil security, and reduced ocean acidification 2-4. Here we use an integrated performance modelling approach to make an initial techno-economic assessment for 2050, quantifying how CDR potential and costs vary among nations in relation to business-as-usual energy policies and policies consistent with limiting future warming to 2 degrees Celsius 5. China, India, the USA and Brazil have great potential to help achieve average global CDR goals of 0.5 to 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2) per year with extraction costs of approximately US$80-180 per tonne of CO 2. These goals and costs are robust, regardless of future energy policies. Deployment within existing croplands offers opportunities to align agriculture and climate policy. However, success will depend upon overcoming political and social inertia to develop regulatory and incentive frameworks. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of ERW deployment, including the potential for excess industrial silicate materials (basalt mine overburden, concrete, and iron and steel slag) to obviate the need for new mining, as well as uncertainties in soil weathering rates and land-ocean transfer of weathered products.
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TL;DR
Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW) on existing croplands could remove 0.5–2 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹ by 2050, with China, India, the USA and Brazil having the largest potential. Estimated extraction costs of ~$80–180 t⁻¹ CO₂ are robust across business-as-usual and 2°C energy scenarios, but deployment depends on policy, social acceptance and field validation.
Key findings
- ERW could contribute 0.5–2 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹ globally by 2050; aggregate CDR of 25–100 Gt CO₂ over five decades would save up to 10% of the remaining ~900 Gt CO₂ budget for limiting warming to below 2°C.
- The top three ranked countries for CDR potential are China, USA and India; Indonesia and Brazil also have relatively high potential due to extensive agricultural lands and suitable climates, while European countries have an order-of-magnitude lower potential than China, USA and India.
- Costs vary by nation: USA $160–180 t⁻¹ CO₂, Canada and European nations $160–190 t⁻¹ CO₂, and China, India, Mexico, Indonesia and Brazil $55–120 t⁻¹ CO₂. A carbon price of $100–150 t⁻¹ CO₂ would cover most ERW costs for key nations.
- ERW could augment 2030 NDCs by ~5–10% for China and the USA, 40% for India, and 100% of Brazil’s pledged 2030 CO₂ emissions plus some fraction of other countries’ emissions; France and Spain up to ~40%, and Poland, Italy and Germany ~10%.
Methods
- Integrated performance model with sub-national detail for major economies (USA, India, China, Brazil, Europe, plus Indonesia, Canada, Mexico), using a 1-D vertical reactive transport model with steady-state flow and a rock-grain dissolution source term.
- Baseline application rate of 40 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹; two basalt types (fast- and slow-weathering) and two log-normal particle size distributions; optimization of p80 for maximum net CDR; Monte Carlo sampling (n ≈ 100) for fractal-dimension uncertainty; BAU and 2°C energy scenarios for 2050.
- Cost assessment includes mining, processing, distribution/transport and spreading, using GIS origin-destination rail/road network analysis and country-specific diesel, labour and electricity costs; silicate waste production forecast using SSP2 GDP projections.
Limitations
- Stated: uncertainties in baseline application rate and basalt mineralogy; extrapolation of laboratory weathering rates to field scale; surface passivation not treated in detail; need for long-term field-scale ERW trials; potential trapping of weathered cations on ion exchange surfaces or in secondary minerals; poorly constrained duration of carbon sequestration and possible CO₂ sink saturation; possible CO₂ degassing in large river systems not considered; no account of wider impacts of ERW supply chains on other markets; recycling penetration for steel not considered beyond current rate.
- Stated: success depends on overcoming political and social inertia, developing regulatory and incentive frameworks, and wider public acceptance.
- Evident from the text: the analysis is a techno-economic modelling assessment, not field-validated; the performance model does not explicitly account for secondary clay minerals, which the authors note makes it conservative with respect to basalt dissolution.
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Claims the paper makes
83 Not checked yet · 36 Own result · 31 Own interpretation · 20 No basis given · 5 Own method · 1 Supported
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“Rock grinding to reduce particle size and maximise CDR is the primary energy consuming operation in ERW 22,23,73 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Base-line simulations
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [22] Strefler, J. et al. Potential and costs of carbon dioxide removal by enhanced weathering of rocks. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 034010 (2018). source
The Techno-economic assessment (section 4) says mining and crushing have negligibly small energy demands compared with grinding, whose electricity demand rises sharply as target grain size falls. The Introduction (section 1) also links grain-size reduction to greater weathering and CDR potential. Our copy does not provide page numbers for these passages. (LLM, conf=0.89)
- Supportedcites [23] Fuss, S. et al. Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 063002 (2018). source
Section 3.4 says enhanced weathering grinds rock to increase reactive surface area and reports that the energy demand of rock grinding creates the largest CO₂ penalty and costs. Together, these support the claim that grinding for improved carbon removal is the primary energy-consuming operation. (LLM, conf=0.94)
- Supportedcites [73] Moosdorf, N., Renforth, P. & Hartmann, J. Carbon dioxide efficiency of terrestrial weathering. Environ. Sci. Technol. 48, 4809–4816 (2014). source
The Material comminution section (lines 145–154) says that reducing rock to finer particles requires grinding and estimates its energy use at 0.6–2.0 GJ per tonne. It describes crushing as requiring minimal energy; the Material extraction section (lines 140–143) likewise describes extraction and application as requiring minimal energy. This supports grinding as the primary energy-consuming processing operation discussed. (LLM, conf=0.88)
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In the paper
“China, India, the United States and Brazil have large potential to help achieve average global CDR targets of 0.5 to 2 Gt CO2 yr -1 with extraction costs of ~$80-180 t -1 CO2.”
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In the paper
“China, India, the United States and Brazil have large potential to help achieve average global CDR targets of 0.5 to 2 Gt CO2 yr -1 with extraction costs of ~$80-180 t -1 CO2.”
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In the paper
“Overall, we find the three top ranked countries with the highest CDR potential are coincidentally the highest fossil fuel CO2 emitters (China, USA and India) 6 (Figure 1).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [6] Le Quéré, C. et al. Global carbon budget 2018. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 10, 2141–2194 (2018).
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In the paper
“In Europe, ERW could aid significant decarbonisation of France and Spain (up to approximately 40%), and to a lesser extent Poland, Italy and Germany (all ~10%) (Figure 2).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
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In the paper
“In the context of our CDR targets, ERW has a similar potential to that of other CDR strategies 23 estimated for 2050, including bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), widely adopted in IPCC future scenarios (0.5-5 Gt CO2 yr -1 ), direct air carbon capture and storage (DAC) (0.5-5 Gt CO2 yr -1 ), biochar (0.5 to 2 Gt CO2 yr -1 ), soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration (0.5-5 Gt CO2 yr”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [23] Fuss, S. et al. Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 063002 (2018). source
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In the paper
“For example, our ERW CDR range is comparable with large-scale implementation of BECCS in USA by 2040 (0.3-0.6 Gt CO2 yr -1 ), as constrained by biomass productivity, location and capacity of CO2 storage sites 24 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [24] Baik, E. et al. Geospatial analysis of near-term potential for carbon-negative bioenergy in the United States. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 3290–3295 (2018). source
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In the paper
“Results show that China may be able to augment its pledged 2030 NDCs by ~5-10%, with similar gains for the USA, which has opted-out of the Paris agreement.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
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In the paper
“the top three European countries with highest CDR potential are also the largest European emitters of CO2 from fossil fuels (Germany, Spain and Poland) 6 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [6] Le Quéré, C. et al. Global carbon budget 2018. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 10, 2141–2194 (2018).
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Results show that China may be able to augment its pledged 2030 NDCs by ~5-10%, with similar gains for the USA, which has opted-out of the Paris agreement.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
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In the paper
“For India, the gain rises to 40% of its current pledged emissions, and Brazil may be able to offset 100% of its pledged 2030 CO2 emissions plus some fraction of those from other countries (Figure 2).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
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In the paper
“Other countries outside Europe considered in our analysis (Indonesia, Canada, Mexico) may be able to augment their NDCs by up to 30% (Figure 2).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
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In the paper
“Our geospatial analyses define a new technical potential CDR range for those nations with high capacity for ERW deployment on cropland (Figure 1; SI figs.S13-S15).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
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In the paper
“China is the exception because its large increase in low carbon energy usage projected under the 2°C scenario 5 allows net CDR to rise by substantially reducing secondary CO2 emissions from logistical operations (Figure 1).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [5] Mercure, J.-F. et al. Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assests. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 588–593 (2018). source
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In the paper
“Overall trends in national CDR curves are relatively insensitive to the choice of energy scenario.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
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“These targets and costs are robust regardless of future energy policies.”
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In the paper
“Our ERW scenarios (Table 1) correspond to an aggregate CDR of 25-100 Gt CO2 if sustained over 5 decades.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
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“The top five European nations with the highest net CDR potential could offset 30% of the EU27's current emissions”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [6] Le Quéré, C. et al. Global carbon budget 2018. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 10, 2141–2194 (2018).
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In the paper
“Costs per t CO2 removed are generally within this projected carbon price range in all nations, but unit costs increase when cropland area exceeds the optimal fraction, because the efficiency of weathering and CDR falls (Figure 3; Table 1).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
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In the paper
“In Europe, ERW could aid significant decarbonisation of France and Spain (up to approximately 40%), and to a lesser extent Poland, Italy and Germany (all ~10%) (Figure 2).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
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In the paper
“Average costs in USA ($160-180 t -1 CO2), Canada and European nations ($160-190 t -1 CO2) are almost 50% higher than those in China, India, Mexico, Indonesia, and Brazil ($55-120 t -1 CO2).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
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In the paper
“Costs per t CO2 removed are generally within this projected carbon price range in all nations, but unit costs increase when cropland area exceeds the optimal fraction, because the efficiency of weathering and CDR falls (Figure 3; Table 1).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
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“Costs fall substantially for citizens in Brazil ($300), Indonesia ($103) and India ($135) (Table 1).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
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In the paper
“National demand for crushed silicate rock is contingent on extent of ERW deployment (Extended Data Fig. 5).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
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In the paper
“Our analysis identifies engineering challenges if ERW were to be scaled-up to help meet ambitious CDR targets as part of a wider portfolio of options 1,7,11,12 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Conclusions
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Global Warming Of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 °C Above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways (World Meteorological Organization, 2018).
- Not checked yetcites [7] United Nations Environment Programme The Emissions Gap Report 2018 (United Nations Environment Programme, 2018).
- Not checked yetcites [11] The Royal Society Greenhouse Gas Removal Technologies (The Royal Society, 2018).
- Not checked yetcites [12] Pacala, S. et al. Negative Emissions Technologies And Reliable Sequestration (National Academy of Sciences, 2018).
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In the paper
“We calculate ƞ for average ocean temperature (17 °C), salinity (35%) and an RCP8.5 2050 dissolved pCO2 of 600 µatm, giving ƞ = 0.86, i.e., 0.86 mole of CO2 removal per mole of monovalent cation and 1.72 mol of CO2 removed per mol of divalent cation added to the oceans 20 .”
- Also stated in: § 2.1 Carbon dioxide removal. · plain
“We calculate ƞ for average ocean temperature (17 °C), salinity (35%) and an RCP8.5 2050 dissolved pCO2 of 600 µatm, giving ƞ = 0.86, i.e., 0.86 mole of CO2 removal per mole of monovalent cation and 1.72 mol of CO2 removed per mol of divalent cation added to the oceans 23 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Pathway 1 for calcium ions:
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [20] Smith, P. et al. Land-based options for greenhouse gas removal and their impacts on ecosystem services and the sustainable development goals. Annu. Rev. Environ. Res. 44, 255–286 (2019). source
- Not checked yetcites [23] Fuss, S. et al. Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 063002 (2018). source
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- The authors state this as an assumption: Weathering products liberated from primary minerals are assumed to subsequently reach the surface ocean via continental runoff.
- Also stated in: § 2.1 Carbon dioxide removal. · plain
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In the paper
“We demonstrate with this approach that the simplified mass transfer inhibition term in equations 1-3 successfully described the same kinetic behaviour calculated by the RTM (Figs.S10-S12).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 1.1 Transport equation.
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In the paper
“For the basalts we considered, and under the soil conditions simulated, labradorite was the only mineral constituent that exhibited notable chemical inhibition.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 1.1 Transport equation.
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“Allowing formation of either secondary clay mineral accelerated dissolution of basaltic minerals through suppression of Al ion activity in solution resulting in less kinetic inhibition of the dissolution reactions (Fig. S8, S9).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
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In the paper
“These results show that when affinity effects for primary minerals are neglected, that secondary mineral accumulation is more rapid.”
- Also stated in: § Capital · plain
“These results show that when affinity effects for primary minerals are neglected, that secondary mineral accumulation is more rapid.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
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In the paper
“Uncertainty in net CDR increases as ERW deploys onto croplands occupying a wider range of environmental conditions.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
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“This is greatest during the first 100 days, especially under a low flow rate (200 mm yr -1 top panels) because there is little dilution of the weathered products, resulting in higher pore water concentrations exerting a stronger affinity effect.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
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“Under the 2°C energy policy scenario, (c) and (d), secondary CO2 emisssion generally drop for most nations as they transition to low carbon energy sources in 2050 and implement negative emissions.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
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“Comparison shows the close similarities between the simulated changes in pH, alkalinity flux (Ca 2+ + Mg 2+ + Na + + K + ), formation of pedogenic carbonate (CaCO3) and efficiency of CO2 removal (RCO2) for the reactive transport model ('RTM') and the performance model ('simple').”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
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“Curves are the same irrespective of energy policy scenario.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
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In the paper
“The results show close correspondence between models across all three flow regimes.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
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In the paper
“Agreement between modelling approaches holds across a wide range of flows.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
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In the paper
“Under the 2°C scenario, low carbon energy production used for rock ginding allows a simulated reduction in p80s for the same cropland fractional area.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
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In the paper
“Only labradorite (green line) in these basalts exhibits noticeable effects.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
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In the paper
“We show close correspondence between the results of the RTM with full chemical speciation and our simplified performance model for the weathering of either type of basalt (tholeiitic and alkaline) being considered (Figs S10, S11).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
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In the paper
“As a result, the two approaches (RTM and performance model), give similar patterns of alkalinity release, pedogenic carbonate formation and CO2 removal (Fig. S12) to underpin our modelling approach.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
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In the paper
“Kfeldspar also exerts a minor affinity effect but is present in such low concentrations that its influence on the basalt-porewater system can be considered to be negligible.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
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In the paper
“Even the most ambitious emission phase-outs 9,10 fail to achieve the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement targets for limiting global warming without the help of massive atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR).”
What the sources say
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“Depending on soil type, atmospheric CO2-derived dissolved inorganic carbon may also be sequestered through the formation of soil carbonate minerals, which reduces the efficiency of carbon sequestration by ~50% 19 .”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] Renforth, P. & Henderson, G. Assessing ocean alkalinity for carbon sequestration. Rev. Geophys. 55, 636–674 (2017). source
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In the paper
“Co-deployment of ERW and SOC sequestration at large-scale might, therefore, contribute substantially to the 5 Gt CO2 yr -1 carbon removal target suggested in decarbonization scenarios 10 for 2050.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [10] Rockström, J. et al. A roadmap for rapid decarbonisation. Science 355, 1269–1271 (2017). source
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“This would save up to 10% of the remaining cumulative carbon emission budget (~900 Gt CO2) that gives a likely chance of limiting global warming to less than 2°C above the pre-industrial average surface temperature 10 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [10] Rockström, J. et al. A roadmap for rapid decarbonisation. Science 355, 1269–1271 (2017). source
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In the paper
“Compatibility of ERW and SOC sequestration may be realistic given that amendment of acidic organic-rich soils with silicate minerals, and resultant pH increase, had no effect on respiratory CO2 fluxes 28,29 , contrary to concerns that increased soil pH may accelerate organic matter decomposition 30 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [28] Groffman, P. M. et al. Calcium additions and microbial nitrogen cycle processes in a northern hardwood forest. Ecosystems 9, 1289–1305 (2006). source
- Not checked yetcites [29] Dietzen, C., Harrison, R. & Michelsen-Correa, S. Effectiveness of enhanced mineral weathering as a carbon sequestration tool and alternative to agricultural lime: an incubation experiment. Int. J. Greenhouse Gas Control 74, 251–258 (2018). source
- Not checked yetcites [30] Smith, P., Haszeldine, R. S. & Smith, S. M. Preliminary assessment of the potential for, and limitations to, terrestrial negative emissions technologies in the UK. Environ. Sci. Process. Impacts 18, 1400–1405 (2016). source
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In the paper
“These weathering products are transported via land surface runoff to the oceans with a storage lifetime exceeding 100,000 years 19 .”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [19] Renforth, P. & Henderson, G. Assessing ocean alkalinity for carbon sequestration. Rev. Geophys. 55, 636–674 (2017). source
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In the paper
“Extraction goals 1,7,9,10 later this century in most studies are on the order of at least 10 Gt CO2 yr -1”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Global Warming Of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 °C Above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways (World Meteorological Organization, 2018).
- Not checked yetcites [7] United Nations Environment Programme The Emissions Gap Report 2018 (United Nations Environment Programme, 2018).
- Not checked yetcites [9] Hansen, J. et al. Young people’s burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions. Earth Syst. Dyn 8, 577–616 (2017). source
- Not checked yetcites [10] Rockström, J. et al. A roadmap for rapid decarbonisation. Science 355, 1269–1271 (2017). source
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In the paper
“Co-deployment of ERW with feedstock crops for BECCS and biochar could enhance the feasibility and carbon sequestration potential of these strategies 4,26 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [4] Beerling, D. J. et al. Farming with crops and rocks to address global climate, food and soil security. Nat. Plants 4, 138–147 (2018). source
- Not checked yetcites [26] Amann, T. & Hartmann, J. Ideas and perspectives: synergies from co-deployment of negative emissions technologies. Biogeosciences 16, 2949–2960 (2019). source
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In the paper
“Logistical infrastructure to apply basaltic rock dust to managed croplands already exists due to the common need to apply crushed limestone to reverse soil acidification from intensive cropping [2][3][4] .”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2][3][4]
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In the paper
“More broadly, innovative ERW practices via soil amendments with targeted silicate minerals could help rebuild rapidly deteriorating agricultural soils on which over six billion people depend directly for food 48 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [48] United Nations Global Land Outlook 1st edn (United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, 2017).
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In the paper
“Intensification of food production across 24 million hectares of productive agricultural land in South Asia and China, for example, is creating acidified, desilicated soils exhausted in plant nutrients (potassium, zinc and available phosphorus) that limit yields 45 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [45] Savant, N. K., Datnoff, L. E. & Snyder, G. H. Depletion of plant-available silicon in soils: a possible cause of declining rice yields. Commun. Soil Sci. Plant Anal. 28, 1245–1252 (1997). source
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In the paper
“ERW cannot offset all fossil fuel emissions, but using its cost as a guide, the per capita annual cost of achieving zero net emissions, a goal for decarbonisation, would be highest for Canada ($3004), the USA ($2780), China ($832) and EU28 nations ($1288).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
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In the paper
“It would make ERW an economically attractive option for fastgrowing nations, such as India, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico given their estimated CO2 extraction costs of ~ $75-100 t -1 CO2 (Figure 3).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
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In the paper
“A carbon price of $100-150 t -1 CO2 would cover most of the ERW costs for the key nations reported here.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
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In the paper
“Requirement for mining may be further reduced by utilizing artificial silicate by-products from industrial processes 37,38 , including calcium-rich silicates produced by iron and steel manufacturing (slags) with a long history of agricultural usage 4,39 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [37] Renforth, P. et al. Silicate production and availability for mineral carbonation. Environ. Sci. Technol. 45, 2035–2041 (2011). source
- Not checked yetcites [38] Renforth, P. The negative emission potential of alkaline materials. Nat. Commun. 10, 1401 (2019). source
- Not checked yetcites [4] Beerling, D. J. et al. Farming with crops and rocks to address global climate, food and soil security. Nat. Plants 4, 138–147 (2018). source
- Not checked yetcites [39] Tubana, B. S., Babu, T. & Datnoff, L. E. A review of silicon in soils and plants and its role in US agriculture: history and future perspectives. Soil Sci. 181, 393–411 (2016). source
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In the paper
“ERW may therefore also have a role in remediation of toxic metal contaminated soils and sediments across 20 million hectares of cultivated land in southern China and elsewhere 47 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [47] Chen, J. Rapid urbanization in China: a real challenge to soil protection and food security. Catena 69, 1–15 (2007). source
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In the paper
“Undertaking ERW practices with these materials addresses a critical need to fertilise soils with silica and other nutrients lost by harvesting that gradually depletes plant-available pools 39 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [39] Tubana, B. S., Babu, T. & Datnoff, L. E. A review of silicon in soils and plants and its role in US agriculture: history and future perspectives. Soil Sci. 181, 393–411 (2016). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“ERW, therefore, has a role to play in compensating for residual carbon emissions from sectors recognized as being difficult to decarbonize, e.g., transportation by aviation, shipping, and agriculture 1,11 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Global Warming Of 1.5 °C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5 °C Above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways (World Meteorological Organization, 2018).
- Not checked yetcites [11] The Royal Society Greenhouse Gas Removal Technologies (The Royal Society, 2018).
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Net cost of ERW may be lower if rock dust is used as a fertilizer in organic agriculture, which currently occupies 57.8 million hectares, because it adds economic value by improving soil health, fertility and ecosystem services 35 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [35] Crowder, D. W. & Reganold, J. P. Financial competitiveness of organic agriculture on a global scale. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 7611–7616 (2015). source
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In the paper
“Afforestation/reforestation and practices that increase soil carbon in natural ecosystems, including wetland restoration, have lower estimated costs (<$100 t -1 CO2) 23 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [23] Fuss, S. et al. Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 063002 (2018). source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Carbon price is forecast by the World Bank 11 to reach $100-150 t -1 CO2 by 2050.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [11] The Royal Society Greenhouse Gas Removal Technologies (The Royal Society, 2018).
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The difference largely reflects labour, diesel and electricity costs.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Costs per t CO2 removed are generally within this projected carbon price range in all nations, but unit costs increase when cropland area exceeds the optimal fraction, because the efficiency of weathering and CDR falls (Figure 3; Table 1).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Thus, bulk silicate production of these two nations could meet the demand for ERW with large CDR potential (Table 1).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The reaction rate of a mineral undergoing dissolution in soil is governed by the law of kinetic mass action and is proportional to the moles of reactive sites on the mineral surface in contact with the reacting aqueous solution 14 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 1.6 Reactive mineral surface area.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [14] Schuiling, R. D. & Krijgsman, P. Enhanced weathering: an effective and cheap tool to sequester CO2. Clim. Change 74, 349–354 (2006). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Monovalent and divalent base cations are released from basaltic minerals by dissolution based on stoichiometry (SI Table S2).”
- Also stated in: § 2.1 Carbon dioxide removal. · plain
“Monovalent and divalent base cations are released from basaltic minerals by dissolution based on stoichiometry (Table S2).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Pathway 1 for calcium ions:
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites SI Table S2
- Not checked yetcites Table S2
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Also stated in: § 2.1 Carbon dioxide removal. · plain
In the paper
“Together with the chemical affinity effects accounted for in our model, we constrain some of the systematic errors embedded in prior ERW assessments [15][16][17]21,22 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Uncertainties
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [15][16][17]21,22
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“This version of the model (equation 7) is well-validated against flask-dissolution experiments (Fig. S3).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 1.5 Rate law.
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In the paper
“SSP2 potentially represents the largest material production pathway, as other SSPs forecast lower consumption or economic growth producing 30-50% less material globally.”
- Also stated in: § 2.4 Forecasting bulk silicate waste production. · hedged
“SSP2 potentially represents the largest material production pathway, as other SSPs forecast lower consumption or economic growth producing 30-50% less material globally.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Forecasting bulk silicate waste production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [40] Washbourne, C.-L. et al. Rapid removal of atmospheric CO2 in urban soils. Environ. Sci. Technol. 49, 5434–5440 (2015). source
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Also stated in: § 2.4 Forecasting bulk silicate waste production. · hedged
In the paper
“Deployment of any CDR strategy is inhibited by concern that it may erode society's perception of the climate threat and the urgency of mitigation measures 54 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Conclusions
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [54] Cox, E., Pidgeon, N. F., Spence, E. M. & Thomas, G. Blurred lines: the ethics and policy of greenhouse gas removal at scale. Front. Environ. Sci. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2018.00038 (2018). source
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“However, ocean carbonate chemistry reduces the efficiency of CO2 removal (ƞ) to an extent depending on ocean temperature, salinity and the surface ocean dissolved CO2 concentration.”
- Also stated in: § 2.1 Carbon dioxide removal. · plain
“However, ocean carbonate chemistry reduces the efficiency of CO2 removal (ƞ) to an extent depending on ocean temperature, salinity and the surface ocean dissolved CO2 concentration.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Pathway 1 for calcium ions:
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [23] Fuss, S. et al. Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 063002 (2018). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Also stated in: § 2.1 Carbon dioxide removal. · plain
In the paper
“Our approach improves on prior analyses, which assumed a fixed radius between rock dust source and site of application 73 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Base-line simulations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [73] Moosdorf, N., Renforth, P. & Hartmann, J. Carbon dioxide efficiency of terrestrial weathering. Environ. Sci. Technol. 48, 4809–4816 (2014). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Extrapolation of laboratory weathering rates to the field scale is a recognized potential source of uncertainty in calculated CDR rates by ERW [2][3][4][22][23][24] .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Uncertainties
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2][3][4][22][23][24]
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our analysis thus represents the first technoeconomic assessment in which detailed ERW carbon and economic costs vary within and between nations and account for socio-technical uncertainties in energy production.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Base-line simulations
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“The measured SSA of a granular material is typically much higher than estimates of the surface area by geometric models of particle shapes, due to surface topography and porosity effects 15 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 1.7 Surface roughness.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [15] Kohler, P., Hartmann, J. & Wolf-Gladrow, D. A. Geoengineering potential of artificially enhanced silicate weathering of olivine. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 20228–20233 (2010). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“This conceptualisation improves on the simplified case of a single mean particle diameter, previously used in ERW calculations [16][17][18]22,23 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Model advances
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [16][17][18]22,23
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Using this modelling framework, we analysed a baseline application rate of 40 t ha -1 yr -1 (equivalent to a <2 mm layer of rock powder distributed on croplands), which falls within the range of basalt amendments shown to improve crop production in field trials 4 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Base-line simulations
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [4] Beerling, D. J. et al. Farming with crops and rocks to address global climate, food and soil security. Nat. Plants 4, 138–147 (2018). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“CDR, via pathway 1, potentially sequesters two moles of CO2 from the atmosphere per mole of divalent cation.”
- Also stated in: § 2.1 Carbon dioxide removal. · hedged
“CDR, via pathway 1, potentially sequesters two moles of CO2 from the atmosphere per mole of divalent cation.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Pathway 1 for calcium ions:
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Weathering products liberated from primary minerals are assumed to subsequently reach the surface ocean via continental runoff.
- Also stated in: § 2.1 Carbon dioxide removal. · hedged
In the paper
“Industrialized nations (e.g., Canada) consume up to ~2% of their total energy production on rock comminution (crushing and grinding) processes 77 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Cost assessment modelling
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [77] Tromans, D. Mineral comminution: energy efficiency considerations. Min. Eng. 21, 613–620 (2008). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Between 2006-2014, 185 kg of blast furnace slag and 117 kg of steel slag was produced for every tonne of crude steel 87 .”
- Also stated in: § 2.4 Forecasting bulk silicate waste production. · plain
“Between 2006-2014, 185 kg of blast furnace slag and 117 kg of steel slag was produced for every tonne of crude steel 42 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Forecasting bulk silicate waste production
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [87] U.S. Geological Survey. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2006 (US Geological Survey, 2006).
- Not checked yetcites [42] Haynes, R. J., Belyaeva, O. N. & Kingston, G. Evaluation of industrial waste sources of fertilizer silicon using chemical extractions and plant uptake. J. Plant Nutr. Soil Sci. 176, 238–248 (2013). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Also stated in: § 2.4 Forecasting bulk silicate waste production. · plain
In the paper
“Current state-of-knowledge 52 precludes a detailed treatment of the role of surface passivation by formation of amorphous silica-rich surfaces for basalt grains added to agricultural soils.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Uncertainties
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [52] Daval, D., Calvarusa, C., Guyut, F. & Turpault, M.-P. Time-dependent feldspar dissolution rates resulting from surface passivation: experimental evidence and geochemical implications. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 498, 226–236 (2018). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Surface passivation occurs as weathering proceeds, creating leached layers and relatively stable secondary minerals, which potentially inhibit the mass transfer kinetics of elements from the dissolving surfaces of primary minerals.
In the paper
“However, mechanical comminution produces an approximately log-normal psd 16 that varies with different grinding and milling technologies.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 1.7 Surface roughness.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [16] Hartmann, J. et al. Enhanced chemical weathering as a geoengineering strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide, supply nutrients, and mitigate ocean acidification. Rev. Geophys. 51, 113–149 (2013). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Even without separating out cement waste from other materials 59 , very little of the leachate contained elemental concentrations above typical water quality standard ranges [60][61][62] .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] Siebert, S. & Doll, P. Quantifying blue and green virtual water contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses without irrigation. J. Hydrol. 384, 198–217 (2010). source
- Not checked yetcites [60][61][62]
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“For the USA, mining cost is 6.99 $ t -1 as obtained from prior analysis 22 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.2 Cost assessment modelling.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [22] Strefler, J. et al. Potential and costs of carbon dioxide removal by enhanced weathering of rocks. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 034010 (2018). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Industrialized nations (e.g., Canada) consume up to ~2% of their total energy production on rock comminution (crushing and grinding) processes 36 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.3 Optimization.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [36] Bebbington, A. J. & Bury, J. T. Institutional challenges for mining and sustainability in Peru. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 17296–17301 (2009). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These results suggest that our approach, which does not explicitly account for the effects of secondary clay minerals on acceleration of primary mineral dissolution, is conservative with respect to calculating basalt dissolution.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Results indicate allowing kaolinite formation accelerates dissolution of labradorite (dashed vs solid green lines) and augite (dashed vs solid red lines) through suppression of Al ion activity in solution resulting in less kinetic inhibition of the dissolution reactions.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Results indicate allowing montmorillonite formation accelerates dissolution of labradorite (dashed vs solid green lines) and augite (dashed vs solid red lines) through suppression of Al ion activity in solution resulting in less kinetic inhibition of the dissolution reactions.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although the number of grid cells to be optimized is reduced by orders of magnitude during the classification, the approximation proved robust with small error and bias when tested at low resolution due to small intra-class variability.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.3 Optimization.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 59
- Probably not a substantial claim. 34
- The quote only partly states this claim. 3
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“National median CO2 removal curves typically show CDR capacity rising with increasing cropland area, with carbon removal by silicate soil amendment reaching a plateau or declining in the case of Canada (Figure 1).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For India, the gain rises to 40% of its current pledged emissions, and Brazil may be able to offset 100% of its pledged 2030 CO2 emissions plus some fraction of those from other countries (Figure 2).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“European countries have an order-of-magnitude lower CDR potential than China, USA, and India, mainly because of lower agricultural land area.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Indonesia and Brazil, with CO2 emissions 10-20 times lower than the USA and China, have relatively high CDR potential due to extensive agricultural lands and climates suitable for high silicate rock weathering efficiency.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This contrasts with results for India, whose total energy production falls by ~40% with a transition to low carbon energy production in the 2 o C scenario, lowering energy available for grinding basalt, and thus the potential for increased CDR by ERW.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Within our scenarios, the demand for basalt required for ERW rises with an increasing CDR target and scales with agricultural land area (Table 1).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“ERW cannot offset all fossil fuel emissions, but using its cost as a guide, the per capita annual cost of achieving zero net emissions, a goal for decarbonisation, would be highest for Canada ($3004), the USA ($2780), China ($832) and EU28 nations ($1288).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Our estimated ERW costs of carbon removal for nations are comparable to estimates summarized for BECCS ($100 to 200 t -1 CO2), DAC ($100-300 t -1 CO2), and biochar ($30-$120 t -1 CO2), but higher than estimates for SOC sequestration ($0-10 t -1 CO2) 23 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [23] Fuss, S. et al. Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 063002 (2018). source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Bulk silicate production, linked to the construction and demolition sector, is modelled to increase substantially in all four nations, with China and India having combined production by 2060 of ~13 Gt yr -1 (Figure 4).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Our cost estimates based on current prices fall within the range of prior ERW assessments ($75-250 tCO2 -1 ) [21][22][23] while resolving differences among nations (Figure 3; Table 1; SI figs.S16-S25; SI tables S13-S14).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [21][22][23]
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“with potential for ancillary benefits by limiting coastal zone acidification and improving food and soil security”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Basaltic minerals undergo dissolution at different rates, with some minerals continuing to undergo dissolution and capture CO2 after the first year of application.”
- Also stated in: § Extended · plain
“Basaltic minerals undergo dissolution at different rates, with some minerals continuing to undergo dissolution and capture CO2 after the first year of application.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal simulation framework
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Extended · plain
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Carbon emissions per unit mass of ground rock depend on particle size (Extended Data Fig. 10), the CO2 emissions per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated from component energy sources (fossil fuels, nuclear and renewables), as well as the carbon costs of sourcing and transporting the silicate materials.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Base-line simulations
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Grinding to finer particles requires greater energy and results in higher carbon emissions.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Cost assessment modelling
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“ERW estimated costs are comparable to current estimates for the intensive carbon removal technologies, BECCS and DAC”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Conclusions
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The results show close correspondence between models across all three flow regimes.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“At the two higher flow rates, shorter residence times result in less solute accumulation within the soil profile and a weaker chemical affinity effect.”
- Also stated in: § Capital · plain
“At the two higher flow rates, shorter residence times result in less solute accumulation within the soil profile and a weaker chemical affinity effect.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Capital · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Weathering inhibition appears negligible over the 1 year duration of soil weathering, other than for laboradorite, with the performance model realistically capturing the effects of chemical affinity.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Consequently, labradorite dissolves to completion after 365 days, and the results of the simulations that include and neglect affinity effects converge.”
- Also stated in: § Capital · plain
“Consequently, labradorite dissolves to completion after 365 days, and the results of the simulations that include and neglect affinity effects converge.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Also stated in: § Capital · plain
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Kfeldspar also exerts a minor affinity effect but is present in such low concentrations that its influence on the basalt-porewater system can be considered to be negligible.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Mining costs for China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Canada and Brazil calculated using the method were 5.33, 4.44, 3.97, 4.88, 6.79 and 5.42 $ t -1 , respectively and for France, Germany, Poland, Italy and Spain 7.90, 8.26, 6.76, 8.30 and 7.31 $ t -1 , respectively.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.2 Cost assessment modelling.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Under the BAU scenario, CO2 emissions from grinding dominate secondary emissions associated with ERW, except for France where low carbon nuclear power dominates.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Rail CO2 emissions were thus the same for both the business-as-usual (BAU) and 2°C scenarios.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.2 Cost assessment modelling.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [31] DeLucia, E., Kantola, I., Blanc-Betes, E., Bernacchi, C. & Beerling, D. J. Basalt application for carbon sequestration reduces nitrous oxide fluxes from cropland. Geophys. Res. Abstr. 21, EGU2019–EGU4500 (2019).
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Results for the 2°C energy policy scenario are very similar.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Only labradorite (green line) in these basalts exhibits noticeable effects.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“ERW has potential co-benefits for improved food and soil security and reduced ocean acidification [2][3][4] .”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2][3][4]
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Such effects would further lower adverse impacts of agriculture on climate per unit yield, amplifying the climate mitigation potential of ERW.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These patterns reflect expansion of ERW into climatically unfavourable agricultural land, causing CDR potential to slow relative to the carbon penalty of logistical operations, and the 3% limit in national energy available for grinding (Extended Data Fig. 2).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Deployment with existing croplands offers opportunities to align agriculture and climate policy.”
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Thus, rapid deployment at large scale appears feasible within decades, with important ancillary benefits including mitigation of ocean acidification [15][16][17][18] .”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [15][16][17][18]
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“However, efficacy of CO2 removal, sink saturation, and permanency of storage with these approaches, separately and interactively, are uncertain 11,23 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [11] The Royal Society Greenhouse Gas Removal Technologies (The Royal Society, 2018).
- Not checked yetcites [23] Fuss, S. et al. Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 063002 (2018). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Abatement of soil N2O emissions by basalt application to conventionally managed arable and perennial crops 31 , and of N2O and CH4 emissions by application of artificial silicates to rice agriculture 32 , is possible.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [31] DeLucia, E., Kantola, I., Blanc-Betes, E., Bernacchi, C. & Beerling, D. J. Basalt application for carbon sequestration reduces nitrous oxide fluxes from cropland. Geophys. Res. Abstr. 21, EGU2019–EGU4500 (2019).
- Not checked yetcites [32] Das, S. et al. Cropping with slag to address soil, environment, and food security. Front. Microbiol. 10, 1320 (2019). source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“although projections of rapid technological change 5 suggest a lower requirement of 2-2.5 Gt CO2 yr -1”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [5] Mercure, J.-F. et al. Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assests. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 588–593 (2018). source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: fails — The authors may not put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The authors may not put it forward as true. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“As yet, most of the top 10 fossil carbon emitting nations are failing to meet their 2030 NDC pledges which, even if met, imply a median warming (2.6-3.1 °C) exceeding the Paris agreement 33 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [33] Rogelj, J. et al. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature 534, 631–639 (2016). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“ERW avoids competition for land used in food production, and related increased demands of BECCS for freshwater and polluting fertilizers 25 , with CO2 being treated as a resource for mineral weathering.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [25] Heck, V., Gerten, D., Lucht, W. & Popp, A. Biomass-based negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary boundaries. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 151–155 (2018). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Basalt, an abundant fast-weathering rock with the required mineral chemistry, is a prime target for implementing land-based ERW because of its potential cobenefits for crop production 18 and soil health [2][3][4] .”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [18] Kelland, M. E. et al. Increased yield and CO2 sequestration potential with the C4 cereal crop Sorghum bicolor cultivated in basaltic rock dust amended agricultural soil. Glob. Change Biol. 26, 3658–3676 (2020). source
- Not checked yetcites [2][3][4]
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Inorganic carbon sequestration by ERW appears comparable to SOC sequestration, another proposed CDR strategy (~2.5 Gt CO2 yr -1 by 2100) 27 using agricultural land, but with potentially greater long-term security of C-storage.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [27] Mayer, A. et al. The potential of agricultural land management to contribute to lower global surface temperature. Sci. Adv. 4, eaaq0932 (2018). source
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“NDC pledged carbon emission reductions undergo periodic revision in response to trends in greenhouse gas emissions, uptake of low-carbon energy technology, and climate 33 and hence are not set for 2050.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal potential via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [33] Rogelj, J. et al. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature 534, 631–639 (2016). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“ERW liberates base cations, generating alkalinity such that atmospheric CO2 is converted into dissolved inorganic carbon (principally hydrogen carbonate ions; HCO3 -) that is removed via soil drainage waters.”
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [2][3][4][13][14][15][16][17]
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Cement contributes ~6% to global CO2 emissions 6 and ERW may represent a land management option for valorising by-products to capture carbon and improve the sustainability of this worldwide industry.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [6] Le Quéré, C. et al. Global carbon budget 2018. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 10, 2141–2194 (2018).
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This increases the potential to bring smallholders out of extreme poverty and, in the regions with climates suitable for non-irrigated agriculture, restore highly degraded soils not suitable currently for food production.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Yet these negative effects may be reversible with ERW treatments given fertilization of irrigated rice using either natural and/or artificial silicates (e.g., recycled steel slags) replenishing plant available silica pools, increasing yields and soil pH, and decreasing the mobility of potentially toxic trace elements (e.g., arsenic) 46 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [46] Ning, D. et al. Impacts of steel-slag-based fertilizer on soil acidity and silicon availability and metals-immobilization in a paddy soil. PLoS One 11, e0168163 (2016). source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Understanding the balance between positive and negative outcomes in terms of public acceptance of the inevitable trade-offs between local mining activities versus global sequestered carbon, requires empirical testing with stakeholders and the wider public.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Mining generates a continuous but usually discarded finely powered silicate byproduct utilizable for ERW without embodied CO2 emissions that reduce CDR efficiency (Extended Data Fig. 6) [21][22][23] , and which has been accumulating worldwide for decades.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [21][22][23]
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Realizing the potential of ERW as a biogeochemical approach to sequester CO2 by altering land management practices will depend on the commitment of farmers and governments, implementation of the right policy frameworks, and wider public acceptance.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Farming practices adopted for increasing sustainable productivity, for example, have transformed agriculture across 37 million hectares in China, increasing profits by $12.2 billion over a decade 50 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [50] Cui, Z. et al. Pursuing sustainable productivity with millions of smallholder farmers. Nature 555, 363–366 (2018). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The current substantial rate of agricultural top-soil depletion requires urgent remedial action, with significant economic costs apparent already in China where degradation of soils supporting wheat, maize and rice production costs an estimated $12 billion annually 48 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [48] United Nations Global Land Outlook 1st edn (United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, 2017).
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Agricultural production can benefit substantially from increased resource use efficiency, reducing consumption of raw materials and recovering mineral nutrients from silicate byproducts 32,42,43 , and overburden legacy reserves 44 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [32] Das, S. et al. Cropping with slag to address soil, environment, and food security. Front. Microbiol. 10, 1320 (2019). source
- Not checked yetcites [42] Haynes, R. J., Belyaeva, O. N. & Kingston, G. Evaluation of industrial waste sources of fertilizer silicon using chemical extractions and plant uptake. J. Plant Nutr. Soil Sci. 176, 238–248 (2013). source
- Not checked yetcites [43] Rodd, A. V. et al. Surface application of cement kiln dust and lime to forage land: effect on forage yield, tissue concentration and accumulation of nutrients. Can. J. Soil Sci. 90, 201–213 (2010). source
- Not checked yetcites [44] Ramos, C.G. et al. Evaluation of soil re-mineralizer from by-product of volcanic rock mining: experimental proof using black oats and maize crops. Nat. Res. Res. 10.1007/s11053–019–09529-x (2019). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Cement contributes ~6% to global CO2 emissions 6 and ERW may represent a land management option for valorising by-products to capture carbon and improve the sustainability of this worldwide industry.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Addition of trace amounts of zinc and iron could also improve public health by reversing the effect of rising CO2 levels on the declining nutritional value of food crops 49 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [49] Smith, M. R. & Myers, S. S. Impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on global human nutrition. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 834–839 (2018). source
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“China and India dominate with above-average per capita cement consumption compared to the global average, and substantially larger populations than the USA and Brazil 38 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [38] Renforth, P. The negative emission potential of alkaline materials. Nat. Commun. 10, 1401 (2019). source
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Feasibility of mobilizing millions of smallholder communities to adopt ERW practices in China and India will depend on demonstrating soil improvements can reverse yield declines, and on government subsidies.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Targeted amendment of agricultural soils for CO2 removal may have a role in slowing rates of soil loss by up to 45%, with the accelerated weathering of added minerals replacing inorganic nutrients and resultant formation of clays and mineral organic aggregates increasing the cation exchange capacity and water storage capacity of rebuilt soils 4,20 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [4] Beerling, D. J. et al. Farming with crops and rocks to address global climate, food and soil security. Nat. Plants 4, 138–147 (2018). source
- Not checked yetcites [20] Smith, P. et al. Land-based options for greenhouse gas removal and their impacts on ecosystem services and the sustainable development goals. Annu. Rev. Environ. Res. 44, 255–286 (2019). source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“With 2.5 billion smallholders farming 60% of the world's arable land, a similar outreach programme could be used throughout Asia, with farmers earning more profits from higher yields while sequestering CO2.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
hedgeddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. It may state two separate claims as one.
- Rests on an assumption: There are 2.5 billion smallholders farming 60% of the world's arable land.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Although chemically similar to basalt, these artificial calcium-rich silicates contain minerals that dissolve several orders of magnitude faster, react rapidly with CO2 in soils under ambient conditions 40 , and are produced in fine particle sizes that facilitate accelerated weathering 41 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [40] Washbourne, C.-L. et al. Rapid removal of atmospheric CO2 in urban soils. Environ. Sci. Technol. 49, 5434–5440 (2015). source
- Not checked yetcites [41] Lekakh, S. N. et al. Kinetics of aqueous leaching and carbonization of steelmaking slag. Metallurg. Mater. Trans. B 39, 125–134 (2008). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Current fossil fuel emissions per person per year 6 are 16.5 t CO2 (USA), 15.1 t CO2 (Canada), 7.5 t CO2 (China), 7.3 t CO2 (EU28), 2.6 t CO2 (Brazil), 1.8 t CO2 (Indonesia) and 1.7 t CO2 (India).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [6] Le Quéré, C. et al. Global carbon budget 2018. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 10, 2141–2194 (2018).
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Crucially, such testing needs to understand the conditions that society might place upon the development and large-scale deployment of ERW technologies, as part of a wider responsible research and innovation programme 51 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Implementation challenges and opportunities
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [51] Pidgeon, N. F. & Spence, E. Perceptions of enhanced weathering as a biological negative emissions option. Biol. Lett. 13, 20170024 (2017). source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“At this early stage of research and development, costs are uncertain and in need of demonstration projects 7,11,12 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [7] United Nations Environment Programme The Emissions Gap Report 2018 (United Nations Environment Programme, 2018).
- Not checked yetcites [11] The Royal Society Greenhouse Gas Removal Technologies (The Royal Society, 2018).
- Not checked yetcites [12] Pacala, S. et al. Negative Emissions Technologies And Reliable Sequestration (National Academy of Sciences, 2018).
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The ancillary benefits of ERW may aid its early use and relieve such concern.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Conclusions
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“These functions represent the effects of a range of rhizosphere processes that accelerate the physical breakdown and chemical dissolution of minerals, including the activities of nutrient scavenging mycorrhizal fungi that physically disrupt and chemically etch mineral surfaces, and bio-production of low molecular weight organic compounds and chelating agents 63,64 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Mineral mass balance.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [63] Harley, A. D. & Gilkes, R. J. Factors influencing the release of plant nutrient elements from silicate rock powders: a geochemical overview. Nutr. Cycl. Agroecosyst. 56, 11–36 (2000). source
- Not checked yetcites [64] Taylor, L. L. et al. Biological evolution and the long-term carbon cycle: integrating mycorrhizal evolution and function into the current paradigm. Geobiology 7, 171–191 (2009). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Nations that may have large ERW potential, including China, the United States and India, are all vulnerable to climate change and resultant sea-level rise 34 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Conclusions
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [34] Clark, P. U. et al. Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change. Nat. Clim. Chang. 6, 360–369 (2016). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The fractal dimension effectively provides a means of consolidating measurements taken at different scales and accounts for uncertainties in grain topography and porosity 72 , and mass transfer rates from rock grains to flowing soil water.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Model advances
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [72] Brantley, S. L. & Mellott, N. P. Surface area and porosity of primary silicate minerals. Am. Mineral. 85, 1767–1783 (2000). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“CDR via pathway 2 can occur if dissolved inorganic carbon derived from atmospheric CO2 precipitates as pedogenic carbonate, and sequesters 1 mol of CO2 per mole of Ca 2+ instead of 1.72 mol of CO2 via pathway 2 and is therefore less efficient.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Pathway 1 for calcium ions:
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Weathering products liberated from primary minerals are assumed to subsequently reach the surface ocean via continental runoff.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The potential for trapping of weathered cations on ion exchange surfaces or within secondary minerals other than carbonates delaying, or even preventing, land-ocean transfer will depend on soil type, climate, hydrological conditions, application rate and management practices.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Uncertainties
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Possible CO2 degassing due to changes in surface water chemistry during transport in large river systems 74 is not considered.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Pathway 1 for calcium ions:
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [74] Salisbury, J. E. et al. Seasonal observations of surface waters in two Gulf of Maine estuary-plume systems: relationships between watershed attributes, optical measurements and surface p CO2. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 77, 245–252 (2008). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our analysis of the techno-economic potential of CDR by ERW is subject to several uncertainties, particularly variation in our baseline application rate and basalt mineralogy.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Uncertainties
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We have not considered the penetration of recycling into steel production beyond its current rate.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Forecasting bulk silicate waste production
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Innovative 'climate-smart' farming practices can be designed with ERW to draw down CO2 and other greenhouse gases while recycling nutrients, aiding soil water storage, and supporting crop production 4,18,20 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Conclusions
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [4] Beerling, D. J. et al. Farming with crops and rocks to address global climate, food and soil security. Nat. Plants 4, 138–147 (2018). source
- Not checked yetcites [18] Kelland, M. E. et al. Increased yield and CO2 sequestration potential with the C4 cereal crop Sorghum bicolor cultivated in basaltic rock dust amended agricultural soil. Glob. Change Biol. 26, 3658–3676 (2020). source
- Not checked yetcites [20] Smith, P. et al. Land-based options for greenhouse gas removal and their impacts on ecosystem services and the sustainable development goals. Annu. Rev. Environ. Res. 44, 255–286 (2019). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We addressed this by Monte Carlo analysis of the fractal dimension accounting for uncertainty in the apparent reacting surface area of grains for ERW conducted at large geographical scales.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Uncertainties
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
The quote only partly states this claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Duration of carbon sequestration rate, and possibility for CO2 sink saturation with ERW on croplands, are both poorly constrained by data, in common with other land-based CDR strategies 11,23 , and affect cumulative CDR potential in coming decades.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Uncertainties
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [11] The Royal Society Greenhouse Gas Removal Technologies (The Royal Society, 2018).
- Not checked yetcites [23] Fuss, S. et al. Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects. Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 063002 (2018). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Their high risks of economic damage 53 and social disruption provide impetus for creative co-design of agricultural and climate policies.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Conclusions
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [53] Ricke, K., Drout, L., Caldeira, K. & Tavoni, M. Country-level social cost of carbon. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 895–900 (2018). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Such practices can help restore deteriorating top-soils that underpin food security for billions of people while maximizing societal co-benefits needed to incentivise deployment 20 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Conclusions
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [20] Smith, P. et al. Land-based options for greenhouse gas removal and their impacts on ecosystem services and the sustainable development goals. Annu. Rev. Environ. Res. 44, 255–286 (2019). source
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus calculating representative annual CO2 removal rates requires computing average rates derived from repeated basaltic rock dust applications (Extended Data Fig. 7).”
- Also stated in: § Extended · plain
“Thus calculating representative annual CO2 removal rates requires computing average rates derived from repeated basaltic rock dust applications.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Carbon removal simulation framework
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
- Also stated in: § Extended · plain
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“CDR via pathway 2 occurs if dissolved inorganic CO2 precipitates as pedogenic carbonate, and sequesters 1 mol of CO2 per mole of Ca 2+ instead of 1.72 mol of CO2 via pathway 1 and is therefore less efficient.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.1 Carbon dioxide removal.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The fractal dimension and its uncertainty are determined from a linear regression analysis performed on measurements from a range of spatial scales 3 (10 -10 -10 3 m).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 1.7 Surface roughness.
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [3] Zhang, G., Kang, J., Wang, T. & Zhu, C. Review and outlook for agromineral research in agriculture and climate change mitigation. Soil Res. 56, 113–122 (2018). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Functions are fitted to mesocosm data for (a) three speies of agricultural crops (maize, rice and soybean) 46,47 , and (b) four species of mycorrhizal tree saplings 48,49 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [46] Ning, D. et al. Impacts of steel-slag-based fertilizer on soil acidity and silicon availability and metals-immobilization in a paddy soil. PLoS One 11, e0168163 (2016). source
- Not checked yetcites [47] Chen, J. Rapid urbanization in China: a real challenge to soil protection and food security. Catena 69, 1–15 (2007). source
- Not checked yetcites [48] United Nations Global Land Outlook 1st edn (United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, 2017).
- Not checked yetcites [49] Smith, M. R. & Myers, S. S. Impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on global human nutrition. Nat. Clim. Chang. 8, 834–839 (2018). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The extent to which simulated pH increases promote or adversely affect crop production depends on the initial topsoil pH, crop functional traits, weathering rates, climate, flushing rates and fertiliser treatments.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
plainconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These functions represent the lumped effects of rhizosphere biological processes accelerating weathering (Section 1.9).”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.5 1-D reactive transport modelling(RTM)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The lower price for China, India and Brazil reflects low labour costs while the higher price for France and Germany reflects higher diesel costs.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.2 Cost assessment modelling.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our cost are indicative of key features of an ERW supply chain and consistent with previous global approaches.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.2 Cost assessment modelling.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds. It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Cost of spreading rock with farming machinery is equivalent to that of spreading lime ($15.18/t).
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The exceptions are Sb and Se.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“For comparison, basaltic glass powder with a diameter of 40 -120µm has a lambda 50 of ~92.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [50] Cui, Z. et al. Pursuing sustainable productivity with millions of smallholder farmers. Nature 555, 363–366 (2018). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“However, these are less concentrated in the unmixed cement waste 59 .”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [59] Siebert, S. & Doll, P. Quantifying blue and green virtual water contents in global crop production as well as potential production losses without irrigation. J. Hydrol. 384, 198–217 (2010). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Uncertainty in the fractal dimension affects weathering rate and consequently, through the optimization, the p80 grid cell vector.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.3 Optimization.
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This is greatest during the first 100 days, especially under a low flow rate (200 mm yr -1 top panels) because there is little dilution of the weathered products, resulting in higher pore water concentrations exerting a stronger affinity effect.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
There are 2.5 billion smallholders farming 60% of the world's arable land.
“With 2.5 billion smallholders farming 60% of the world's arable land”
The paper relies on this without support.
Surface passivation occurs as weathering proceeds, creating leached layers and relatively stable secondary minerals, which potentially inhibit the mass transfer kinetics of elements from the dissolving surfaces of primary minerals.
“Surface passivation, a component of chemical inhibition, occurs as weathering proceeds, creating leached layers and relatively stable secondary minerals, which potentially inhibit the mass transfer kinetics of elements from the dissolving surfaces of primary minerals.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Weathering products liberated from primary minerals are assumed to subsequently reach the surface ocean via continental runoff.
“Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) results from the mass transport of enhanced weathering products liberated from the primary minerals, which are assumed to subsequently reach the surface ocean via continental runoff, or can be precipitated as secondary carbonate minerals in the terrestrial environment.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Particles are assumed to be spherical.
“As particles are assumed to be spherical, we reformulate equation 14 in terms radius rather than mass to give:”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The scrap ratio remains unchanged.
“The ratio of pig iron to steel production (0.72) was obtained using linear regression of 1960-2014 data, negating the need to explicitly model pig iron displacement from scrap recycling, and assuming the scrap ratio remains unchanged.”
“assuming the scrap ratio remains unchanged.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
All steel and blast furnace slag is available for reaction with CO2.
“All steel and blast furnace slag was considered available for reaction with CO2.”
“All steel and blast furnace slag was considered available for reaction with CO2.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Cement and cement kiln dust have no capacity to be recycled as cement.
“Cement and cement kiln dust have no capacity to be recycled as cement.”
“Cement and cement kiln dust have no capacity to be recycled as cement.”
The paper relies on this without support.
In the tropics and subtropics, annual temperature variation is relatively low.
“In the tropics and subtropics, where perennial crops dominate, annual temperature variation is relatively low.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The soil surface temperature at 5 cm depth of the 8 warmest months for 2050 represents conditions during the main growth period of most crop types found outside the tropics.
“This value is taken to represent conditions during the main growth period of most crop types found outside the tropics.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Standard calculations of rate of mineral dissolution ignore size differences in reacting particles and simulate the mineral with a surface area that corresponds to the mean diameter of a particle size distribution.
“Standard calculations of rate of mineral dissolution ignore size differences in reacting particles and simulate the mineral with a surface area that corresponds to the mean diameter of a particle size distribution (psd).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Land management practices for annual crops return cations released during dissolution, and taken up by crops back to soils via biomass decomposition.
“We assume land management practices for annual crops return cations released during dissolution, and taken up by crops back to soils via biomass decomposition.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Cost of spreading rock with farming machinery is equivalent to that of spreading lime ($15.18/t).
“Cost of spreading rock with farming machinery was considered equivalent to that of spreading lime ($15.18/t).”
The authors state this as an assumption.
A future limit of 3% of total energy production for rock comminution for all nations.
“We assume a future limit of 3% for all nations, based on the rationale that current rates for developed nations grow from around 2% today in-line with future energy scenarios 33 .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
115 kg of cement kiln dust is produced as a by-product in kilns for every tonne of clinker, and demolition waste follows an average 50-year service life (normally distributed with standard deviation 10 years).
“We assume 115 kg of cement kiln dust is produced as a by-product in kilns for every tonne of clinker, and have modelled the production of demolition waste following an average 50-year service life (normally distributed with a standard deviation of 10 years) 41 .”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Interstitial waters are in equilibrium with dissolved weathering products, inorganic and organic soil cation exchange surfaces and secondary minerals.
“Interstitial waters are calculated to be in equilibrium with the dissolved weathering products, inorganic and organic soil cation exchange surfaces and secondary minerals.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Secondary minerals form and dissolve instantaneously to maintain thermodynamic equilibrium between the fluid and mineral phases.
“These were calculated to form and dissolve instantaneously to maintain thermodynamic equilibrium between the fluid and mineral phases.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The soil solution is in equilibrium with atmospheric pO2(g).
“The soil solution was equilibrated with dissolved O2 and CO2; assuming equilibrium with atmospheric pO2(g) (atm).”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In the citing paper
“Application of crushed calcium- and magnesium-rich silicate rocks to soils is proposed for large-scale CO2 removal.191 This technology was called enhanced rock weathering, which increases soil alkalinity, and thus atmospheric CO2 can be converted into dissolved inorganic C to be finally transported to the ocean, where the stored C has a long lifespan via land surface runoff.”
From Technologies and perspectives for achieving carbon neutrality (2021) · cites this paper as [191]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated major: it would touch a result — a value a result rests on, reported and recomputed p-values on opposite sides of the significance level, two passages that conflict with no sign which is right, or a cited work retracted before this paper was published.
In the paper
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
“Costs per t CO2 removed are generally within this projected carbon price range in all nations”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Costs of carbon removal via ERW
“Average costs in USA ($160-180 t -1 CO2), Canada and European nations ($160-190 t -1 CO2) are almost 50% higher than those in China, India, Mexico, Indonesia, and Brazil ($55-120 t -1 CO2).”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.3 Optimization.
“the country's projected grid electricity production PGrid (Energy) for the year 2030”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > 2.3 Optimization.
“We used country-specific electricity production (PGrid) and the forecast fractional contributions to electricity production by different energy sources (coal, natural gas, oil, solar PV, concentrated solar power, hydropower, wind, marine) for 2050”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Pathway 1 for calcium ions:
“sequesters 1 mol of CO2 per mole of Ca 2+ instead of 1.72 mol of CO2 via pathway 2”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Pathway 1 for calcium ions:
“CDR, via pathway 1, potentially sequesters two moles of CO2 from the atmosphere per mole of divalent cation.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
“The exceptions are Sb and Se.”
§ The potential for large-scale CO 2 removal via rock weathering on croplands > Capital
“Aluminium (mg l -1 ) 1.6 0.2 Calcium (mg l -1 ) 395 250 Iron (mg l -1 ) 0.085 0.2 to 1 Potassium (mg l -1 ) 125 10 to 12”
Citations
Cites
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Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
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Abatzoglou, J. T., Dobrowski, S. Z., Parks, S. A., & Hegewisch, K. C. (2018) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/sdata.2017.191 · Cited by 3,529
Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Hauck, J., Pongratz, J., Pickers, P. A., Korsbakken, J. I., Peters, G. P., Canadell, J. G., et al. (2018) · Earth System Science Data · doi:10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018 · Cited by 1,645
Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects
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Pursuing sustainable productivity with millions of smallholder farmers
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Metadata
- Authors
- Beerling, D. J., Kantzas, E. P., Lomas, M. R., Wade, P., Eufrasio, R. M., Renforth, P., Sarkar, B., Andrews, M. G., James, R. H., Pearce, C. R., Mercure, J.-F., Pollitt, H., Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Khanna, M., Koh, L., Quegan, S., Pidgeon, N. F., Janssens, I. A., Hansen, J., & Banwart, S. A.
- Affiliations
- Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation (GB)
- University of Sheffield (GB)
- Heriot-Watt University (GB)
- Lancaster University (GB)
- National Oceanography Centre (GB)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- The Open University (GB)
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- Cardiff University (GB)
- University of Antwerp (BE)
- Columbia University (US)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Beerling, David J.
- ORCID
- Beerling, David J.
- Kantzas, Euripides P.
- Wade, Peter
- Eufrasio, Rafael M.
- Renforth, Phil
- Sarkar, Binoy
- Andrews, M. Grace
- James, Rachael H.
- Pearce, Christopher R.
- Mercure, Jean-Francois
- Pollitt, Hector
- Holden, Philip B.
- Edwards, Neil R.
- Khanna, Madhu
- Koh, Lenny
- Quegan, Shaun
- Pidgeon, Nick F.
- Janssens, Ivan A.
- Hansen, James
- Banwart, Steven A.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2020-07-08
- Volume
- 583
- Issue
- 7815
- Pages
- 242-248
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W3041773269
- Semantic Scholar
- 9c00c1ebacb3a72cae19f74c126391c7eb38ebc1
- Cited by
- 700
- References
- 78
- Citations by year
- 2026: 137 · 2025: 144 · 2024: 144 · 2023: 100 · 2022: 94 · 2021: 71 · 2020: 10
- FWCI
- 24.79
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- eprints.lancs.ac.uk
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (acceptedVersion)
- ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (acceptedVersion)
- Open Research Online - ORO (The Open University) (acceptedVersion)
- Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy
- UK Research and Innovation
- Leverhulme Trust (RC-2015-029)
- Royal Academy of Engineering
- Universiteit Antwerpen
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/K007254/1)
- Natural Environment Research Council (noc010011, NE/P015093/1, NE/P019943/2, NE/S017119/1, NE/P019730/2, NE/P019943/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › CO2 Sequestration and Geologic Interactions
- Physical Sciences › Chemical Engineering › Filtration and Separation › Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Keywords
- carbon dioxide removal, cropland, techno-economic analysis, climate change mitigation, 2°C target, energy policy scenarios
- MeSH terms
- Agriculture, Atmosphere, Brazil, Carbon Dioxide, China, Goals, India, Iron, Mining, Politics, Probability, Steel, Temperature, Time Factors, United States, Silicates, Crops, Agricultural, Geologic Sediments, Global Warming, Environmental Policy
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-10-10, under version 3 of the claim definition (model deepseek-v4.1-flash, prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-10-10 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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