Cited by 700CO2 Sequestration and Geologic InteractionsCarbon Dioxide Capture TechnologiesClimate Change and Geoengineering

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 81 of the 81 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 3 of the 121 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

Potential for large-scale CO2 removal via enhanced rock weathering with croplands

Open access

Abstract

Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW), deployable with croplands, has potential use for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) removal (CDR), which is now necessary to mitigate anthropogenic climate change 1. ERW also has possible co-benefits for improved food and soil security, and reduced ocean acidification 2-4. Here we use an integrated performance modelling approach to make an initial techno-economic assessment for 2050, quantifying how CDR potential and costs vary among nations in relation to business-as-usual energy policies and policies consistent with limiting future warming to 2 degrees Celsius 5. China, India, the USA and Brazil have great potential to help achieve average global CDR goals of 0.5 to 2 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (CO 2) per year with extraction costs of approximately US$80-180 per tonne of CO 2. These goals and costs are robust, regardless of future energy policies. Deployment within existing croplands offers opportunities to align agriculture and climate policy. However, success will depend upon overcoming political and social inertia to develop regulatory and incentive frameworks. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of ERW deployment, including the potential for excess industrial silicate materials (basalt mine overburden, concrete, and iron and steel slag) to obviate the need for new mining, as well as uncertainties in soil weathering rates and land-ocean transfer of weathered products.

Overview

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW) on existing croplands could remove 0.5–2 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹ by 2050, with China, India, the USA and Brazil having the largest potential. Estimated extraction costs of ~$80–180 t⁻¹ CO₂ are robust across business-as-usual and 2°C energy scenarios, but deployment depends on policy, social acceptance and field validation.

Key findings

  • ERW could contribute 0.5–2 Gt CO₂ yr⁻¹ globally by 2050; aggregate CDR of 25–100 Gt CO₂ over five decades would save up to 10% of the remaining ~900 Gt CO₂ budget for limiting warming to below 2°C.
  • The top three ranked countries for CDR potential are China, USA and India; Indonesia and Brazil also have relatively high potential due to extensive agricultural lands and suitable climates, while European countries have an order-of-magnitude lower potential than China, USA and India.
  • Costs vary by nation: USA $160–180 t⁻¹ CO₂, Canada and European nations $160–190 t⁻¹ CO₂, and China, India, Mexico, Indonesia and Brazil $55–120 t⁻¹ CO₂. A carbon price of $100–150 t⁻¹ CO₂ would cover most ERW costs for key nations.
  • ERW could augment 2030 NDCs by ~5–10% for China and the USA, 40% for India, and 100% of Brazil’s pledged 2030 CO₂ emissions plus some fraction of other countries’ emissions; France and Spain up to ~40%, and Poland, Italy and Germany ~10%.

Methods

  • Integrated performance model with sub-national detail for major economies (USA, India, China, Brazil, Europe, plus Indonesia, Canada, Mexico), using a 1-D vertical reactive transport model with steady-state flow and a rock-grain dissolution source term.
  • Baseline application rate of 40 t ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹; two basalt types (fast- and slow-weathering) and two log-normal particle size distributions; optimization of p80 for maximum net CDR; Monte Carlo sampling (n ≈ 100) for fractal-dimension uncertainty; BAU and 2°C energy scenarios for 2050.
  • Cost assessment includes mining, processing, distribution/transport and spreading, using GIS origin-destination rail/road network analysis and country-specific diesel, labour and electricity costs; silicate waste production forecast using SSP2 GDP projections.

Limitations

  • Stated: uncertainties in baseline application rate and basalt mineralogy; extrapolation of laboratory weathering rates to field scale; surface passivation not treated in detail; need for long-term field-scale ERW trials; potential trapping of weathered cations on ion exchange surfaces or in secondary minerals; poorly constrained duration of carbon sequestration and possible CO₂ sink saturation; possible CO₂ degassing in large river systems not considered; no account of wider impacts of ERW supply chains on other markets; recycling penetration for steel not considered beyond current rate.
  • Stated: success depends on overcoming political and social inertia, developing regulatory and incentive frameworks, and wider public acceptance.
  • Evident from the text: the analysis is a techno-economic modelling assessment, not field-validated; the performance model does not explicitly account for secondary clay minerals, which the authors note makes it conservative with respect to basalt dissolution.

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Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/s41586-020-2448-9

Cites

81 of 81 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

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Claims the paper makes

83 Not checked yet · 36 Own result · 31 Own interpretation · 20 No basis given · 5 Own method · 1 Supported

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  • It may state two separate claims as one. 59
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 34
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 3
85 of 85
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There are 2.5 billion smallholders farming 60% of the world's arable land.

    “With 2.5 billion smallholders farming 60% of the world's arable land”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Surface passivation occurs as weathering proceeds, creating leached layers and relatively stable secondary minerals, which potentially inhibit the mass transfer kinetics of elements from the dissolving surfaces of primary minerals.

    “Surface passivation, a component of chemical inhibition, occurs as weathering proceeds, creating leached layers and relatively stable secondary minerals, which potentially inhibit the mass transfer kinetics of elements from the dissolving surfaces of primary minerals.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Weathering products liberated from primary minerals are assumed to subsequently reach the surface ocean via continental runoff.

    “Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) results from the mass transport of enhanced weathering products liberated from the primary minerals, which are assumed to subsequently reach the surface ocean via continental runoff, or can be precipitated as secondary carbonate minerals in the terrestrial environment.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Particles are assumed to be spherical.

    “As particles are assumed to be spherical, we reformulate equation 14 in terms radius rather than mass to give:”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The scrap ratio remains unchanged.

    “The ratio of pig iron to steel production (0.72) was obtained using linear regression of 1960-2014 data, negating the need to explicitly model pig iron displacement from scrap recycling, and assuming the scrap ratio remains unchanged.”
    “assuming the scrap ratio remains unchanged.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    All steel and blast furnace slag is available for reaction with CO2.

    “All steel and blast furnace slag was considered available for reaction with CO2.”
    “All steel and blast furnace slag was considered available for reaction with CO2.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Cement and cement kiln dust have no capacity to be recycled as cement.

    “Cement and cement kiln dust have no capacity to be recycled as cement.”
    “Cement and cement kiln dust have no capacity to be recycled as cement.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    In the tropics and subtropics, annual temperature variation is relatively low.

    “In the tropics and subtropics, where perennial crops dominate, annual temperature variation is relatively low.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The soil surface temperature at 5 cm depth of the 8 warmest months for 2050 represents conditions during the main growth period of most crop types found outside the tropics.

    “This value is taken to represent conditions during the main growth period of most crop types found outside the tropics.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Standard calculations of rate of mineral dissolution ignore size differences in reacting particles and simulate the mineral with a surface area that corresponds to the mean diameter of a particle size distribution.

    “Standard calculations of rate of mineral dissolution ignore size differences in reacting particles and simulate the mineral with a surface area that corresponds to the mean diameter of a particle size distribution (psd).”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Land management practices for annual crops return cations released during dissolution, and taken up by crops back to soils via biomass decomposition.

    “We assume land management practices for annual crops return cations released during dissolution, and taken up by crops back to soils via biomass decomposition.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Cost of spreading rock with farming machinery is equivalent to that of spreading lime ($15.18/t).

    “Cost of spreading rock with farming machinery was considered equivalent to that of spreading lime ($15.18/t).”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    A future limit of 3% of total energy production for rock comminution for all nations.

    “We assume a future limit of 3% for all nations, based on the rationale that current rates for developed nations grow from around 2% today in-line with future energy scenarios 33 .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    115 kg of cement kiln dust is produced as a by-product in kilns for every tonne of clinker, and demolition waste follows an average 50-year service life (normally distributed with standard deviation 10 years).

    “We assume 115 kg of cement kiln dust is produced as a by-product in kilns for every tonne of clinker, and have modelled the production of demolition waste following an average 50-year service life (normally distributed with a standard deviation of 10 years) 41 .”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Interstitial waters are in equilibrium with dissolved weathering products, inorganic and organic soil cation exchange surfaces and secondary minerals.

    “Interstitial waters are calculated to be in equilibrium with the dissolved weathering products, inorganic and organic soil cation exchange surfaces and secondary minerals.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    Secondary minerals form and dissolve instantaneously to maintain thermodynamic equilibrium between the fluid and mineral phases.

    “These were calculated to form and dissolve instantaneously to maintain thermodynamic equilibrium between the fluid and mineral phases.”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The soil solution is in equilibrium with atmospheric pO2(g).

    “The soil solution was equilibrated with dissolved O2 and CO2; assuming equilibrium with atmospheric pO2(g) (atm).”
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Metadata

Authors
Beerling, D. J., Kantzas, E. P., Lomas, M. R., Wade, P., Eufrasio, R. M., Renforth, P., Sarkar, B., Andrews, M. G., James, R. H., Pearce, C. R., Mercure, J.-F., Pollitt, H., Holden, P. B., Edwards, N. R., Khanna, M., Koh, L., Quegan, S., Pidgeon, N. F., Janssens, I. A., Hansen, J., & Banwart, S. A.
Affiliations
  • Leverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation (GB)
  • University of Sheffield (GB)
  • Heriot-Watt University (GB)
  • Lancaster University (GB)
  • National Oceanography Centre (GB)
  • University of Cambridge (GB)
  • The Open University (GB)
  • University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
  • Cardiff University (GB)
  • University of Antwerp (BE)
  • Columbia University (US)
  • University of Leeds (GB)
Corresponding author
Beerling, David J.
Venue
Nature
Published
2020-07-08
Volume
583
Issue
7815
Pages
242-248
ISSN
  • 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
  • 1476-4687
OpenAlex
W3041773269
Cited by
700
References
78
Citations by year
2026: 137 · 2025: 144 · 2024: 144 · 2023: 100 · 2022: 94 · 2021: 71 · 2020: 10
FWCI
24.79
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Nature (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Lancaster EPrints (Lancaster University) (acceptedVersion)
  • ePrints Soton (University of Southampton) (acceptedVersion)
  • White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
  • NERC Open Research Archive (Natural Environment Research Council) (acceptedVersion)
  • Open Research Online - ORO (The Open University) (acceptedVersion)
  • Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (acceptedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide) (submittedVersion)
  • Figshare (submittedVersion)
  • ORCA Online Research @Cardiff (Cardiff University) (submittedVersion)
Funders
  • U.S. Department of Energy
  • UK Research and Innovation
  • Leverhulme Trust (RC-2015-029)
  • Royal Academy of Engineering
  • Universiteit Antwerpen
  • Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/K007254/1)
  • Natural Environment Research Council (noc010011, NE/P015093/1, NE/P019943/2, NE/S017119/1, NE/P019730/2, NE/P019943/1)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Engineering › CO2 Sequestration and Geologic Interactions
  • Physical Sciences › Chemical Engineering › Filtration and Separation › Carbon Dioxide Capture Technologies
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
Keywords
carbon dioxide removal, cropland, techno-economic analysis, climate change mitigation, 2°C target, energy policy scenarios
MeSH terms
Agriculture, Atmosphere, Brazil, Carbon Dioxide, China, Goals, India, Iron, Mining, Politics, Probability, Steel, Temperature, Time Factors, United States, Silicates, Crops, Agricultural, Geologic Sediments, Global Warming, Environmental Policy

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