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Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability
Abstract
This article presents a new theory of subjective probability according to which different descriptions of the same event can give rise to different judgments. The experimental evidence confirms the major predictions of the theory. First, judged probability increases by unpacking the focal hypothesis and decreases by unpacking the alternative hypothesis. Second, judged probabilities are complementary in the binary case and subadditive in the general case, contrary to both classical and revisionist models of belief. Third, subadditivity is more pronounced for probability judgments than for frequency judgments and is enhanced by compatible evidence. The theory provides a unified treatment of a wide range of empirical findings. It is extended to ordinal judgments and to the assessment of upper and lower probabilities. Both laypeople and experts are often called upon to evaluate the probability of uncertain events such as the outcome of a trial, the result of a medical operation, the success of a business venture, or the winner of a football game. Such assessments play an important role in deciding, respectively, whether to go to court, undergo surgery, invest in the venture, or bet on the home team. Uncertainty is usually expressed in verbal terms (e.g., unlikely or probable), but numerical estimates are also common. Weather forecasters, for example, often report the probability of rain (Murphy, 1985), and economists are sometimes required to estimate the chances of recession (Zarnowitz, 1985). The theoretical and practical significance of subjective probability has inspired psychologists, philosophers, and statisticians to investigate this notion from both descriptive and prescriptive standpoints.
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“In the unpacking effect, participants judge, say, 'being a lawyer', to be less probable than the 'unpacked' description 'being a tax, corporate, patent, or other type of lawyer' [44][45][46].”
From Bayesian Brains without Probabilities (2016) · cites this paper as [45]
In the citing paper
“when guided to where the peaks are (i.e., starting the android from a different location), for example, by being asked about the pattern _ _ _ _ ing in the more detailed description, then large peaks are found and probability estimates are higher [31,45].”
From Bayesian Brains without Probabilities (2016) · cites this paper as [45]
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The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning.
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Ambiguity and uncertainty in probabilistic inference.
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On the adequacy of prototype theory as a theory of concepts
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Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic
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Affective causes and consequences of social information processing.
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Structural Alignment during Similarity Comparisons
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Stock prices and the Wall Street weather
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The Influence of Anticipating Regret and Responsibility on Purchase Decisions
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An ego-strength scale which predicts response to psychotherapy.
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Kahneman, D. J., & Tversky, A. (1982) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/0010-0277(82)90023-3 · Cited by 791
Self-citationThe Anatomy of the Performance of Buy and Sell Recommendations
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Mood effects on person-perception judgments.
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Accountability: A Social Check on the Fundamental Attribution Error
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Probabilistic reasoning in clinical medicine: Problems and opportunities
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Interpretation by Physicians of Clinical Laboratory Results
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The Stability of Personality: Observations and Evaluations
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Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing.
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Analysts' Decisions As Products of a Multi-Task Environment
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Sentence comprehension: A psycholinguistic processing model of verification.
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Defensive pessimism: Harnessing anxiety as motivation.
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Self-Command in Practice, in Policy, and in a Theory of Rational Choice
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Person memory: Personality traits as organizing principles in memory for behaviors.
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Emotion and psychopathy: Startling new insights
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Totem and Taboo: Some Points of Agreement Between the Mental Lives of Savages and Neurotics
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Measures of Anchoring in Estimation Tasks
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Adaptation-level theory : a symposium
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The Causes of Preference Reversal
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Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?
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On the study of statistical intuitions
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Mood as input: People have to interpret the motivational implications of their moods.
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Organismic achievement and environmental probability.
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Facial Efference And The Experience Of Emotion
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Ambiguity Aversion and Comparative Ignorance
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Egocentric Biases in Availability and Attribution
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Flagged first, then by citations
4 of the 1090 references couldn’t be matched to a known paper.
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Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review
Frederick, S., Loewenstein, G., & O’Donoghue, T. (2002) · Journal of Economic Literature · doi:10.1257/002205102320161311 · Cited by 6,106
A perspective on judgment and choice: mapping bounded rationality.
Kahneman, D. (2003) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/0003-066x.58.9.697 · Cited by 5,540
Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?
Stanovich, K. E., & West, R. F. (2000) · Behavioral and Brain Sciences · doi:10.1017/s0140525x00003435 · Cited by 4,481
Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
Bottom, W. P., Gilovich, T. D., Griffin, D., & Kahneman, D. J. (2004) · Academy of Management Review · doi:10.2307/20159081 · Cited by 3,583
(1993)
Metadata
- Authors
- Tversky, A., & Koehler, D. J.
- Affiliations
- Stanford University (US)
- ORCID
- Koehler, Derek J.
- Venue
- Psychological Review
- Published
- 1994-10
- Volume
- 101
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 547-567
- ISSN
- 0033-295X (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1471
- OpenAlex
- W2054875343
- Cited by
- 1,167
- References
- 1,090
- Citations by year
- 2026: 15 · 2025: 27 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 42 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 44 · 2020: 39 · 2019: 34 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 67 · 2016: 44 · 2015: 49 · 2014: 49 · 2013: 28 · 2012: 52
- FWCI
- 10.46
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Psychological Review (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Categorization, perception, and language
- Keywords
- subjective probability, support theory, subadditivity, alternative hypothesis, lower and upper probabilities, probability judgment, frequency judgment, belief revision
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