Glycated hemoglobin, diabetes, and cardiovascular risk in nondiabetic adults
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Fasting glucose is the standard measure used to diagnose diabetes in the United States. Recently, glycated hemoglobin was also recommended for this purpose. METHODS: We compared the prognostic value of glycated hemoglobin and fasting glucose for identifying adults at risk for diabetes or cardiovascular disease. We measured glycated hemoglobin in whole-blood samples from 11,092 black or white adults who did not have a history of diabetes or cardiovascular disease and who attended the second visit (occurring in the 1990-1992 period) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. RESULTS: The glycated hemoglobin value at baseline was associated with newly diagnosed diabetes and cardiovascular outcomes. For glycated hemoglobin values of less than 5.0%, 5.0 to less than 5.5%, 5.5 to less than 6.0%, 6.0 to less than 6.5%, and 6.5% or greater, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) for diagnosed diabetes were 0.52 (0.40 to 0.69), 1.00 (reference), 1.86 (1.67 to 2.08), 4.48 (3.92 to 5.13), and 16.47 (14.22 to 19.08), respectively. For coronary heart disease, the hazard ratios were 0.96 (0.74 to 1.24), 1.00 (reference), 1.23 (1.07 to 1.41), 1.78 (1.48 to 2.15), and 1.95 (1.53 to 2.48), respectively. The hazard ratios for stroke were similar. In contrast, glycated hemoglobin and death from any cause were found to have a J-shaped association curve. All these associations remained significant after adjustment for the baseline fasting glucose level. The association between the fasting glucose levels and the risk of cardiovascular disease or death from any cause was not significant in models with adjustment for all covariates as well as glycated hemoglobin. For coronary heart disease, measures of risk discrimination showed significant improvement when glycated hemoglobin was added to models including fasting glucose. CONCLUSIONS: In this community-based population of nondiabetic adults, glycated hemoglobin was similarly associated with a risk of diabetes and more strongly associated with risks of cardiovascular disease and death from any cause as compared with fasting glucose. These data add to the evidence supporting the use of glycated hemoglobin as a diagnostic test for diabetes.
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In a community-based study of African American and non-Hispanic White adults without diabetes, baseline A1C was a stronger predictor of subsequent diabetes and cardiovascular events than fasting glucose.
“In a community-based study of African American and non-Hispanic White adults without diabetes, baseline A1C was a stronger predictor of subsequent diabetes and cardiovascular events than fasting glucose (82).”
From 2. Diagnosis and Classification of Diabetes: <i>Standards of Care in Diabetes—2024</i> (2024) · cites this paper as [82]
The Abstract Conclusions state that glycated hemoglobin was more strongly associated than fasting glucose with cardiovascular disease risk, but only similarly associated with diabetes risk. The study population was community-based and included Black and White adults without diabetes. Page numbers are not provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.92)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn a community-based study of African American and non-Hispanic White adults without diabetes, baseline A1C was a stronger predictor of subsequent diabetes and cardiovascular events than fasting glucose.
“In a community-based study of African American and non-Hispanic White adults without diabetes, baseline A1C was a stronger predictor of subsequent diabetes and cardiovascular events than fasting glucose (87).”
From 2. Diagnosis and classification of diabetes: standards of care in diabetes-2025 (2025) · cites this paper as [87]
The Abstract Conclusions say that glycated hemoglobin was more strongly associated with cardiovascular disease risk than fasting glucose, but only similarly associated with diabetes risk. The claim overstates the diabetes comparison. (LLM, conf=0.93)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredRace did not modify the association between the HbA1c concentration and adverse cardiovascular outcomes or death.
“However, race did not modify the association between the HbA 1c concentration and adverse cardiovascular outcomes or death (336).”
From Guidelines and Recommendations for Laboratory Analysis in the Diagnosis and Management of Diabetes Mellitus (2023) · cites this paper as [336]
An analysis of 11,092 adults showed that Black individuals had mean HbA1c values 0.4% higher than White individuals.
“An analysis of 11,092 adults showed that Black individuals had mean HbA 1c values 0.4% higher than White individuals (336).”
From Guidelines and Recommendations for Laboratory Analysis in the Diagnosis and Management of Diabetes Mellitus (2023) · cites this paper as [336]
Careful phenotyping of subjects with oral glucose tolerance testing supports an increase in HbA1c with age, even after removing those with otherwise undiagnosed diabetes and people with impaired glucose tolerance.
“Careful phenotyping of subjects with OGTT supports an increase in HbA 1c with age, even after removing those with otherwise undiagnosed diabetes and people with impaired glucose tolerance from the study population (336).”
From Guidelines and Recommendations for Laboratory Analysis in the Diagnosis and Management of Diabetes Mellitus (2023) · cites this paper as [336]
The Methods describe fasting-glucose measurements and analyses of diabetes and cardiovascular risk, not phenotyping by oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Neither the Results nor the additional passages found for age and impaired glucose tolerance report whether HbA1c rises with age after excluding those groups. The claim cannot be verified from our copy. (LLM, conf=0.76)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
An analysis of 11,092 adults showed that blacks had mean HbA1c values 0.4% higher than whites, but race did not modify the association between HbA1c and adverse cardiovascular outcomes or death.
“A recent analysis of 11,092 adults showed that blacks had mean HbA 1c values 0.4% higher than whites (229); however, race did not modify the association between HbA 1c concentration and adverse cardiovascular outcomes or death (229).”
From Guidelines and recommendations for laboratory analysis in the diagnosis and management of diabetes mellitus (2011) · cites this paper as [229]
In a community-based study of black and white adults without diabetes, baseline A1C was a stronger predictor of subsequent diabetes and cardiovascular events than was fasting glucose.
“In a community-based study of black and white adults without diabetes, baseline A1C was a stronger predictor of subsequent diabetes and cardiovascular events than was fasting glucose (11).”
From Diagnosis and classification of diabetes mellitus (2013) · cites this paper as [11]
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- Authors
- Selvin, E., Steffes, M. W., Zhu, H., Matsushita, K., Wagenknecht, L., Pankow, J., Coresh, J., & Brancati, F. L.
- Affiliations
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- Wake Forest University Health Sciences (US)
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 2010-03-04
- Volume
- 362
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 800-811
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- PMC
- PMC2872990
- OpenAlex
- W2096466744
- Semantic Scholar
- b5782112bbcb66a58bdb6a913818c6be29a86da1
- Cited by
- 1,544
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 52 · 2025: 47 · 2024: 60 · 2023: 65 · 2022: 81 · 2021: 76 · 2020: 85 · 2019: 86 · 2018: 108 · 2017: 95 · 2016: 99 · 2015: 141 · 2014: 112 · 2013: 112 · 2012: 111
- FWCI
- 105.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (n01hc55021-47-0-1, 5p60dk079637-02, n01hc55020-39-0-0, n01hc55016-37-0-0, n01hc055022-024, n01hc55019-35-0-1, n01hc55018-38-0-1, n01hc55015-48-0-1)
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (N01-HC55022, N01 HC055016, N01-HC-55018, N01 HC 55020, N01 HC 55019, N01 HC055020, N01 HC055018, N01-HC55016, N01 HC055022, N01 HC055019, N01‐HC‐55015, N01-HC55021, N01 HC055021, N01 HC055015)
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (P60 DK-079637, K24-DK62222, K01DK076595, K24DK062222, P30DK079637, R21DK080294)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diabetes Management and Research
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Clinical Biochemistry › Advanced Glycation End Products research
- Keywords
- HbA1c, fasting blood glucose, diabetes diagnosis, cardiovascular risk, coronary artery disease, stroke, all-cause mortality, non-diabetic adults, risk discrimination, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, HbA1c thresholds, J-shaped association, risk prediction model, diabetes risk prediction, Black and White adults, community-based population
- MeSH terms
- Blood Glucose, Cardiovascular Diseases, Diabetes Mellitus, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Glycated Hemoglobin, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Prognosis, Risk, Incidence, Proportional Hazards Models
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