Saturated Fat and Cardiometabolic Risk Factors, Coronary Heart Disease, Stroke, and Diabetes: a Fresh Look at the Evidence
Open accessAbstract
Dietary and policy recommendations frequently focus on reducing saturated fatty acid consumption for improving cardiometabolic health, based largely on ecologic and animal studies. Recent advances in nutritional science now allow assessment of critical questions about health effects of saturated fatty acids (SFA). We reviewed the evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of lipid and non‐lipid risk factors, prospective cohort studies of disease endpoints, and RCTs of disease endpoints for cardiometabolic effects of SFA consumption in humans, including whether effects vary depending on specific SFA chain‐length; on the replacement nutrient; or on disease outcomes evaluated. Compared with carbohydrate, the TC:HDL‐C ratio is nonsignificantly affected by consumption of myristic or palmitic acid, is nonsignificantly decreased by stearic acid, and is significantly decreased by lauric acid. However, insufficient evidence exists for different chain‐length‐specific effects on other risk pathways or, more importantly, disease endpoints. Based on consistent evidence from human studies, replacing SFA with polyunsaturated fat modestly lowers coronary heart disease risk, with ~10% risk reduction for a 5% energy substitution; whereas replacing SFA with carbohydrate has no benefit and replacing SFA with monounsaturated fat has uncertain effects. Evidence for the effects of SFA consumption on vascular function, insulin resistance, diabetes, and stroke is mixed, with many studies showing no clear effects, highlighting a need for further investigation of these endpoints. Public health emphasis on reducing SFA consumption without considering the replacement nutrient or, more importantly, the many other food‐based risk factors for cardiometabolic disease is unlikely to produce substantial intended benefits.
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Saturated fat and carbohydrates affect the ratio of total to HDL cholesterol in similar ways.
“Similar effects of SFA and carbohydrates on the ratio of total to HDL cholesterol have been documented, and may contribute to this finding.139,143,144”
From Components of a Cardioprotective Diet: New Insights (2011) · cites this paper as [144]
Most diets contain high proportions of refined carbohydrates.
“On the basis of these findings and high proportions of refined carbohydrates in most diets, a focus on reducing SFA consumption, traditionally a major public health goal, needs to be paired with decreasing consumption of refined carbohydrates, starches, and sugars.141,144”
From Components of a Cardioprotective Diet: New Insights (2011) · cites this paper as [144]
Observational cohorts and randomized trials confirm that diets focused on isolated nutrient targets, such as low-fat, low-saturated fat diets, produce no significant benefits on cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or insulin resistance.
“In comparison, both observational cohorts and randomized trials confirm little clinical benefit of diets focused on isolated nutrient targets, such as low-fat, low-saturated fat diets, which produce no significant benefits on cardiovascular disease, diabetes, or insulin resistance.36-39”
From Dietary and Policy Priorities for Cardiovascular Disease, Diabetes, and Obesity: A Comprehensive Review (2016) · cites this paper as [38]
The large WHI randomized trial substantially lowered total dietary fat among nearly 50,000 US women followed for nearly a decade, and did not show benefits for any major endpoint including heart disease, stroke, cancers, diabetes, or insulin resistance.
“The large WHI randomized trial substantially lowered total dietary fat among nearly 50,000 US women followed for nearly a decade, and did not show benefits for any major endpoint including heart disease (Figure 2, top panel), stroke, cancers, diabetes, or insulin resistance.36-39”
From Dietary and Policy Priorities for Cardiovascular Disease, Diabetes, and Obesity: A Comprehensive Review (2016) · cites this paper as [38]
Total monounsaturated fat intake is not associated with lower incidence of diabetes; associates with trends toward greater CVD in some cohort studies; and increases atherosclerosis in primate experiments.
“Yet, total monounsaturated fat intake is not associated with lower incidence of diabetes;355 associates with trends toward greater CVD in some cohort studies;155 and increases atherosclerosis in primate experiments, potentially due to enrichment of LDL cholesteryl oleate and increased LDL proteoglycan binding.356”
From Dietary and Policy Priorities for Cardiovascular Disease, Diabetes, and Obesity: A Comprehensive Review (2016) · cites this paper as [355]
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Effects of dietary fats versus carbohydrates on coronary heart disease: A review of the evidence
Mozaffarian, D. (2005) · Current Atherosclerosis Reports · doi:10.1007/s11883-005-0060-y · Cited by 36 · see citing works
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Flagged first, then by citations
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Sorted by citations
Mozaffarian, D. (2016) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/circulationaha.115.018585 · Cited by 2,216 · see citing works
Self-citationde Souza, R. J., Mente, A., Maroleanu, A., Cozma, A. I., Ha, V., Kishibe, T., Uleryk, E., Budylowski, P., Schünemann, H., Beyene, J., et al. (2015) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.h3978 · Cited by 1,424 · see citing works
Micha, R., Khatibzadeh, S., Shi, P., Fahimi, S., Lim, S., Andrews, K. G., Engell, R. E., Powles, J., Ezzati, M., Mozaffarian, D., et al. (2014) · BMJ · doi:10.1136/bmj.g2272 · Cited by 573 · see citing works
Self-citationHandelsman, Y., Bloomgarden, Z. T., Grunberger, G., Umpierrez, G., Zimmerman, R. S., Bailey, T. S., Blonde, L., Bray, G. A., Cohen, A. J., Dagogo-Jack, S., et al. (2015) · Endocrine Practice · doi:10.4158/ep15672.glsuppl · Cited by 559 · see citing works
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Components of a Cardioprotective Diet: New Insights
Mozaffarian, D., Appel, L. J., & Van Horn, L. (2011) · Circulation · doi:10.1161/circulationaha.110.968735 · Cited by 571 · see citing works
Self-citationMicha, R., Michas, G., & Mozaffarian, D. (2012) · Current Atherosclerosis Reports · doi:10.1007/s11883-012-0282-8 · Cited by 502 · see citing works
Astrup, A., Dyerberg, J., Elwood, P., Hermansen, K., Hu, F. B., Jakobsen, M. U., Kok, F. J., Krauss, R. M., Lecerf, J. M., LeGrand, P., et al. (2011) · The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.3945/ajcn.110.004622 · Cited by 487 · see citing works
Association of Specific Dietary Fats With Total and Cause-Specific Mortality
Wang, D. D., Li, Y., Chiuve, S. E., Stampfer, M. J., Manson, J. E., Rimm, E. B., Willett, W. C., & Hu, F. B. (2016) · JAMA Internal Medicine · doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2016.2417 · Cited by 439 · see citing works
de Oliveira Otto, M. C., Mozaffarian, D., Kromhout, D., Bertoni, A. G., Sibley, C. T., Jacobs, D. R., & Nettleton, J. A. (2012) · The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.3945/ajcn.112.037770 · Cited by 364 · see citing works
Self-citationMetabolic disturbances connecting obesity and depression
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Micha, R., Kalantarian, S., Wirojratana, P., Byers, T., Danaei, G., Elmadfa, I., Ding, E., Giovannucci, E., Powles, J., Smith-Warner, S., et al. (2012) · European Journal of Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.1038/ejcn.2011.147 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
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Yakoob, M. Y., Shi, P., Hu, F. B., Campos, H., Rexrode, K. M., Orav, E. J., Willett, W. C., & Mozaffarian, D. (2014) · The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.3945/ajcn.114.083097 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Self-citationProcessing of meats and cardiovascular risk: time to focus on preservatives
Micha, R., Michas, G., Lajous, M., & Mozaffarian, D. (2013) · BMC Medicine · doi:10.1186/1741-7015-11-136 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
Self-citationGrabež, M., Škrbić, R., Stojiljković, M. P., Rudić-Grujić, V., Paunović, M., Arsić, A., Petrović, S., Vučić, V., Mirjanić-Azarić, B., Šavikin, K., et al. (2020) · Journal of Functional Foods · doi:10.1016/j.jff.2019.103692 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
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Ahmadi-Abhari, S., Luben, R. N., Powell, N., Bhaniani, A., Chowdhury, R., Wareham, N. J., Forouhi, N. G., & Khaw, K.-T. (2014) · British Journal of Nutrition · doi:10.1017/s0007114513002298 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Lee, H. S., & Lee, J. (2021) · International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health · doi:10.3390/ijerph18062912 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Stonehouse, W., Benassi-Evans, B., James-Martin, G., & Abeywardena, M. (2020) · European Journal of Clinical Nutrition · doi:10.1038/s41430-019-0452-7 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
- Authors
- Micha, R., & Mozaffarian, D.
- Affiliations
- Harvard University (US)
- Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
- Corresponding author
- Mozaffarian, Dariush
- Venue
- Lipids
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 2010-03-31
- Volume
- 45
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 893-905
- ISSN
- 0024-4201 (ISSN-L)
- 1558-9307
- PMC
- PMC2950931
- OpenAlex
- W2125288278
- Cited by
- 543
- References
- 95
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 21 · 2024: 36 · 2023: 28 · 2022: 31 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 31 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 44 · 2017: 25 · 2016: 52 · 2015: 51 · 2014: 56 · 2013: 34 · 2012: 28
- FWCI
- 2.97
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Lipids (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Nursing › Nutrition and Dietetics › Fatty Acid Research and Health
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Nutritional Studies and Diet
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Diet, Metabolism, and Disease
- Keywords
- saturated fatty acids, cardiometabolic risk, coronary artery disease, stroke, diabetes mellitus, fat replacement, polyunsaturated fat, monounsaturated fatty acids, myristic acid, palmitic acid, lauric acid, stearic acid, TC/HDL-C ratio, insulin resistance, vascular function, dietary recommendations
- MeSH terms
- Cardiovascular Diseases, Diabetes Mellitus, Dietary Fats, Fatty Acids, Humans, Public Health, Risk Factors, Stroke
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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