The DOI matches its Crossref record; 192 of the 199 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 7 of the 70 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010
Open accessAbstract
Background Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden.Findings In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania.Interpretation Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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106 Own result · 50 Own method · 43 Not checked yet · 29 Own interpretation · 21 No basis given · 2 Partly supported · 1 Supported · 1 Supported so far · accuracy not yet measured
Every source the paper cites for this claim was checked and supports it.
In the paper
“subsequent randomised trials154 of blood pressure-lowering medication suggest that the benefits of lowering blood pressure could continue to 110 mm Hg or lower.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distributions for counterfactual comparison
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [154] Law, 2009, Use of blood pressure lowering drugs in the prevention of cardiovascular disease: meta-analysis of 147 randomised trials in the context of expectations from prospective epidemiological studies, BMJ source
The Results section reports significant cardiovascular risk reductions at pretreatment systolic pressures down to 110 mm Hg. Although it says there were too few trial data below that level, the Discussion supports a “lower the better” approach and concludes that lowering blood pressure offers benefit whatever the starting pressure. That supports the citing sentence’s hedged suggestion, rather than a claim of direct trial evidence below 110 mm Hg. (LLM, conf=0.87)
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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- Supported
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In the paper
“Large differences also exist for cause-specific mortality, especially in relation to diarrhoea and lower respiratory tract infections (which can be affected by both of these risks) versus malaria (which is not).176”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [176] Lozano, 2012, Global and regional mortality from 235 causes of death for 20 age groups in 1990 and 2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, Lancet sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results report substantial declines in deaths from diarrhoeal disease and lower respiratory infections between 1990 and 2010, versus a 19.9% rise in malaria mortality. That supports a difference in cause-specific mortality trends, but the cited paper does not establish the sentence’s additional claim that both referenced risks affect diarrhoea and respiratory infections but not malaria. (LLM, conf=0.84)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Partly supported
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6–8·3])”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5–7·0])”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“An exponential decay with a power of concentration was the functional form that provided the best fit for all five outcomes.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we did not note a significantly greater effect of piped water or point-of-use or source water treatment compared with improved water.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2–10·8) of global DALYs in 2010”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- It may state two separate claims as one. 92
- Probably not a substantial claim. 78
- The quote only partly states this claim. 2
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Re-Analysis of the same trials for disease-specific outcomes, which is necessary to extrapo late effects to populations with different causes of death, reduced their statistical power and gave 95% CIs that spanned 1·0.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [36] Yakoob, 2011, Preventive zinc supplementation in developing countries: impact on mortality and morbidity due to diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria, BMC Public Health sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results (Quantitative data synthesis; page unavailable) report cause-specific analyses based on fewer trials than the all-cause analysis, and the 95% confidence intervals for zinc-alone estimates of diarrhea, pneumonia, and malaria mortality include 1.0. The paper does not establish that re-analysis reduced statistical power; moreover, its pneumonia estimate after including iron-and-folic-acid studies has a 95% CI of 0.67–0.96, which excludes 1.0. (LLM, conf=0.86)
- Not checked yetcites [153] Sazawal, 2007, Effect of zinc supplementation on mortality in children aged 1–48 months: a community-based randomised placebo-controlled trial, Lancet source
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
- Partly supported
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“National comparative risk assessments (including in Australia, Iran, Japan, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, USA, and Vietnam) have also been undertaken with similar approaches.11–16”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [11] Danaei, 2009, The preventable causes of death in the United States: comparative risk assessment of dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic risk factors, PLoS Med source
The Introduction states that the authors estimated deaths attributable to major risk factors in the US using consistent, comparable methods and nationally representative data. This supports the USA example for which this source is cited; the other countries in the multi-citation sentence need not be documented by this paper. (LLM, conf=0.92)
- Supportedcites [12] Stevens, 2008, Characterizing the epidemiological transition in Mexico: national and subnational burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors, PLoS Med source
The Methods (Comparative Risk Assessment) describe using comparative risk assessment methods to estimate deaths and DALYs attributable to 16 risk factors in Mexico. The Discussion identifies the work as a national and subnational analysis, supporting this paper's role as the Mexico example in the cited list. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Not checked yetcites [13] Begg, 2008, Burden of disease and injury in Australia in the new millennium: measuring health loss from diseases, injuries and risk factors, Med J Aust source
- Not checked yetcites [14] Norman, 2007, A comparative risk assessment for South Africa in 2000: towards promoting health and preventing disease, S Afr Med J
- Supportedcites [15] Ikeda, 2012, Adult mortality attributable to preventable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan: a comparative risk assessment, PLoS Med source
The Introduction identifies this paper as a comparative risk assessment of preventable mortality risks in Japanese adults. In the citing sentence’s list of national assessments, this source supports the Japan example; the other countries need not be established by this citation. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Supportedcites [16] Farzadfar, 2011, National and subnational mortality effects of metabolic risk factors and smoking in Iran: a comparative risk assessment, Popul Health Metr source
The Methods section states that the authors conducted a population-level comparative risk assessment in Iran. This confirms the paper as an example of the national assessments cited; it need not establish that assessments were conducted in every other country listed. (LLM, conf=0.94)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0–5·9])”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Results of this internal validation study show that overall, estimation of the effect of dietary pattern based on the RRs reported for single risk factors was much the same as the effect reported in the study; across four large cohort studies of seven dietary patterns the average ratio for the estimated RR reduction compared with the measured RR reduction was 0·98.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When translated into an effect using the RRs of blood pressure and cholesterol for ischaemic heart disease, the average ratio of the estimated to measured RR reduction was 1·07 for all components and 0·85 when excluding fish”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our analysis showed a significant effect of both improved water and improved sanitation compared with unimproved water and sanitation”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The effect of seafood omega-3 fatty acids tended to be lower in randomised controlled trials than in observational studies, however, this difference was not statistically significant (p=0·057).”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“high total cholesterol (2·0 million [1·6 million to 2·5 million] deaths and 1·6% [1·3–2·0] of DALYs)”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“as well as alcohol and drug use (5·0 million [4·7 million to 5·3 million] deaths and 6·5% [6·0–7·0] of DALYs) were substantial in 2010.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In southern Latin America, high body-mass index accounted for almost 10% of overall disease burden in 2010, and is the leading risk factor in southern Latin America and Australasia.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“followed by high body-mass index (3·4 million [2·8 million to 4·0 million deaths] and 3·8% [3·1–4·4] of global DALYs in 2010)”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Other risks for child mortality, such as nonexclusive and discontinued breastfeeding, micronutrient deficiencies, and unimproved water and sanitation, have also fallen.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the absolute burden of risk factors for non-communicable disease does not increase with increasing mean age at death. Rather, its magnitude is lower in high-income regions than in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia (figure 6C, D), showing the double burden of communicable and non-communicable disease in regions early in the epidemiological transition.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“alcohol use which accounted for 4·9 million (4·5 million to 5·2 million) deaths and 5·5% (5·0–5·9) of global DALYs in 2010.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Physical inactivity and low physical activity accounted for 3·2 million (2·7 million to 3·7 million) deaths, and 2·8% (2·4–3·2) of DALYs in 2010.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and other environmental risks (0·7 million [0·6 million to 0·9 million] deaths and 0·6% [0·5–0·8] DALYs).”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Childhood underweight was still the fourth leading risk factor in 2010, despite its share of disease burden having more than halved from 11·9% [95% UI 10·1–14·4] of DALYs in 1990, to 4·0% [3·2–4·9] in 2010.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“diets low in fruits (4·9 million [3·8 million to 5·9 million] deaths and 4·2% [3·3–5·0] of global DALYs)”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“occupational risk factors accounted for 0·9 million (0·7 million to 1·1 million) deaths and 2·5% (2·0–3·0) of global DALYs in 2010”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the global disease burden attributable to high body-mass index increased from 52 million to 94 million DALYs”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for almost 1%”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Of the non-communicable disease risks, high blood pressure, high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, alcohol use, and dietary risks have increased in relative importance.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The effects of multiple risk factors are not a simple addition of the individual effects and are often smaller than their sums,156 especially for cardiovascular diseases, which are affected by several risk factors (eg, table 2).”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [156] Rothman, 1976, Causes, Am J Epidemiol source
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“low in vegetables (1·8 million [1·2 million to 2·3 million]; 1·5% [1·0–2·1])”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In 2010, alcohol use was the leading risk factor in southern sub-Saharan Africa, followed by high blood pressure and high bodymass index (figure 6).”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“unimproved water and sanitation, (0·3 million [0 to 0·6 million] deaths and 0·9% [0·04–1·6] DALYs)”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“High blood pressure is a leading risk for health in high-income Asia Pacific (accounting for 8·5% [95% UI 7·1–10·1] of disease burden) and central Europe (18·9% [16·8–20·8])”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“the five leading risk factors in 2010 (high blood pressure, tobacco smoking including secondhand smoke, alcohol use, household air pollution, and diets low in fruits)”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“low in nuts and seeds (2·5 million [1·6 million to 3·2 million]; 2·1% [1·3–2·7])”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“sexual abuse and violence (0·2 million [0·1 million to 0·3 million] deaths and 0·9% [0·7–1·2] DALYs)”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and household air pollu tion from solid fuels (6·3% [4·4–8·1]).”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Household air pollution from solid fuels accounted for 3·5 million (2·7 million to 4·4 million) deaths and 4·5% (3·4–5·3) of global DALYs in 2010”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“that of high fasting plasma glucose increased from 56 million to 89 million DALYs over this period.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“and suboptimal breast feeding (0·5 million [0·3 million to 0·8 million]; 1·9% [1·2–2·7])”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“(0·2 million [0·1 million to 0·3 million] deaths and 0·1% [0·03–0·2] of global DALYs in 2010).”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“low bone mineral density (0·2 million [0·1 million to 0·2 million] deaths and 0·21% [0·17–0·25] of DALYs).”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Globally, high blood pressure accounted for more than 20% of all health loss in adults aged 70 years and older in 2010, and around 15% in those aged 50–69 years.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Among children younger than 5 years, childhood underweight was the leading risk factor worldwide in 2010 (12·4% [10·4–14·7] of global DALYs)”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“low in whole grains (1·7 million [1·3 million to 2·1 million]; 1·6% [1·3–1·9])”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“followed by iron deficiency (0·1 million [0·09 million to 0·14 million]; 1·9% [1·4–2·6])”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“high fasting plasma glucose (3·4 million [2·9 million to 3·7 million] deaths and 3·6% [3·1–4·0] of DALYs)”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“low in seafood omega-3 fatty acids (1·4 million [1·0 million to 1·8 million]; 1·1% [0·8–1·5])”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Vitamin A and zinc deficiencies amongst children accounted for less than 0·8% of the disease burden.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For alcohol use, these sex differences were similarly sub stantial: 7·4% (third) versus 3·0% (eighth).”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“diets high in sodium (4·0 million [3·4 million to 4·6 million]; 2·5% [1·7–3·3])”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For ambient particulate matter pollution, we also did a post-hoc sensitivity analysis excluding the effects of dust, which had a small effect worldwide—attributable global DALYs decreased by 2%—but large effects in north Africa and Middle East.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The burdens of disease attributable to tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3 million [5·4 million to 7·0 million] deaths and 6·3% [5·5–7·0] of DALYs)”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Child and maternal undernutrition was responsible for the next largest attributable burden of the risk factor clusters (1·4 million [1·2 million to 1·7 million] deaths; 6·7% [5·7–7·7] of global DALYs in 2010)”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“ambient particulate matter pollution accounted for 3·1 million (2·7 million to 3·5 million) deaths and 3·1% (2·7–3·4) of global DALYs.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“High blood pressure, high body-mass index, and high fasting plasma glucose are leading risk factors for disease worldwide, with blood pressure having large effects on population health in all regions, including low-income regions in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“worldwide, childhood wasting accounted for 0·7 million deaths in 2010, and childhood stunting for 0·9 million deaths, compared with 0·9 million deaths for childhood under weight (the effects of these risks cannot be added).”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our analysis shows the large burden of disease attributable to primary and secondary tobacco smoking and to particulate matter pollution in household and ambient environments.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The high burden in eastern Europe was also identified in the 2000 comparative risk assessment but the data for patterns of alcohol consumption and their effects were weaker, whereas now they are supported by more surveys and epidemiological studies.182”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [182] Rehm, 2010, The relation between different dimensions of alcohol consumption and burden of disease: an overview, Addiction source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By contrast, our approach—calculating attributable burden by cause and age group, and accounting for exposure in four categories—estimated substantially fewer attributable deaths: 3·2 million (2·7 million to 3·7 million) in 2010, 56% of what we attribute to tobacco smoking when second-hand smoke is excluded.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The burden attributable to alcohol use has increased substantially in eastern Europe since 1990, mainly because of a rise in the effects of heavy drinking on cardiovascular diseases.181”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [181] Zaridze, 2009, Alcohol poisoning is a main determinant of recent mortality trends in Russia: evidence from a detailed analysis of mortality statistics and autopsies, Int J Epidemiol source
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The global burden of disease attributable to tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke has changed little, with decreases in high-income regions offset by increases in regions such as south east Asia and, to a lesser extent, east and south Asia.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“for zinc deficiency, the differences are similarly large (453 000 vs 120 000).”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“in GBD 1990 it was estimated to be 5·9 million deaths in 1990,180 in the comparative risk assessment study for 2000 as 3·7 million deaths,7 and 1·9 million deaths in 2004.10 In GBD 2010 we estimated 2·3 million deaths for 1990 and 0·9 million deaths for 2010.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [180] Murray, 1996
- Not checked yetcites [7] Ezzati, 2002, Selected major risk factors and global and regional burden of disease, Lancet source
- Not checked yetcites [10] Black, 2008, Maternal and child undernutrition: global and regional exposures and health consequences, Lancet source
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Similarly, we did not find a significantly improved effect of water quality interventions, consistent with the findings reported by Cairncross and colleagues,128”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [128] Cairncross, 2010, Water, sanitation and hygiene for the prevention of diarrhoea, Int J Epidemiol source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“In contrast to these risks, the burden of high total cholesterol is lower than that estimated in the 2000 comparative risk assessment, because the effects on ischaemic stroke were negligible at old ages when data from the Asia-Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration and Prospective Studies Collaboration were pooled,68,185 and because exposure has fallen in high-income countries.67”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [68] Zhang, 2003, Cholesterol, coronary heart disease, and stroke in the Asia Pacific region, Int J Epidemiol source
- Not checked yetcites [185] Lewington, 2007, Blood cholesterol and vascular mortality by age, sex, and blood pressure: a meta-analysis of individual data from 61 prospective studies with 55 000 vascular deaths, Lancet source
- Not checked yetcites [67] Farzadfar, 2011, National, regional, and global trends in serum total cholesterol since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 321 country-years and 3·0 million participants, Lancet source
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For example, Black and colleagues estimated 668 000 deaths caused by vitamin A deficiency in 2004; we estimated a quarter (168 000 deaths) for 2005”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“If quantifiable, unsafe sexual practices would probably account for a large fraction of global health burden; the direct burden of HIV is 3·3% of DALYs in 2010; other sexually transmitted infections account for 0·4% of DALYs.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A result the paper reports from its own data — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Coupled with evidence of their present burden, most of the leading risk factors, except high body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, have decreased in at least some regions and countries, showing that substantial reduction of their effect through targeted prevention strategies is feasible.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Since this work, WHO has provided estimates for some risks by the same methods but with updated exposures and some updates of the effect sizes for each risk.8”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [8] 2009
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Protective dietary risk factors such as consumption of fruits, vegetables, and whole grains, tend to be positively correlated with each other and negatively correlated with harmful dietary risk factors such as consumption of processed meat.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
hedgedstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We did a meta-regression of 119 studies that was designed to adjust for intervention and baseline group characteristics.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We used effect sizes that had been adjusted for measured confounders but not for factors along the causal pathway.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 1990 provided the first global and regional comparative assessment of mortality and disability adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to ten major risk factors.3”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [3] Murray, 1996
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“A systematic review143 of randomised clinical trials of supplementation with seafood omega-3 fatty acids reported non-significant effects on several outcomes, and a significant effect for mortality from ischaemic heart disease—the primary outcome in GBD 2010.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [143] Rizos, 2012, Association between omega-3 fatty acid supplementation and risk of major cardiovascular disease events: a systematic review and meta-analysis, JAMA source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Interpretation
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Therefore, we used the effect size based on the combination of randomised clinical trials and observational studies but also did a sensitivity analysis with the effect size based on randomised clinical trials.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Subsequently, Murray and Lopez4 proposed a framework for global comparative risk assessment, which laid the basis for assessment of 26 risks in 2000.5–7”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Introduction
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [4] Murray, 1999, On the comparable quantification of health risks: lessons from the Global Burden of Disease Study, Epidemiology source
- Not checked yetcites [5] 2002
- Not checked yetcites [6] Ezzati, 2004
- Not checked yetcites [7] Ezzati, 2002, Selected major risk factors and global and regional burden of disease, Lancet source
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Interpretation
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, each analysis accounted for important study characteristics such as national versus subnational representativeness, and the measures and instruments used for measuring exposure.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Distribution of exposure to each risk factor
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The inclusion criteria for each risk–outcome pair that we applied were: 1) the likely importance of a risk factor to disease burden or policy based on previous work; 2) availability of sufficient data and methods to enable estimation of exposure distributions by country for at least one of the study periods (1990 and 2010);”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Selection of risk–outcome pairs
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Pooled epidemiological studies of cardiovascular disease risks show that the RR decreases with age, and that the inverse age association is roughly log-linear.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Uncertainty in the RR was generated by simulation analyses.152”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [152] King, 2000, Making the most of statistical analyses: improving interpretation and presentation, Am J Pol Sci source
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“To represent uncertainty in the estimates we used simulation analysis to take 1000 draws from the posterior distribution of exposure, RR, and each relevant outcome for each age, sex, country, year.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Mortality and disease burden attributable to individual and clusters of risk factors
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“we have included in the uncertainty analysis draws from the posterior distribution for those exposure categories that show a protective effect.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Quantification of risk factors in this analysis represents the effects of each individual risk factor, holding all other independent factors constant.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The mean of the ranks for a risk factor was not necessarily equivalent to the rank of the mean deaths or mean DALYs attributable to the risk factor.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Mortality and disease burden attributable to individual and clusters of risk factors
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We have included draws from these posterior distributions if the mean values show a dose–response relation.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Effects of risk factors on disease outcomes
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the combined effects of physiological risk factors are probably large, with high blood pressure the leading single risk factor globally”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UI) were calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of the 1000 draws.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Methods > Mortality and disease burden attributable to individual and clusters of risk factors
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This overall shift has arisen from a combintion of the ageing population, substantial achievements in lowering mortality of children aged younger than 5 years, and changes in risk factor exposure.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, risk factors included in a cluster are not necessarily independent; for example, a substantial part of the burden attributable to high body-mass index is mediated through high blood pressure and high fasting plasma glucose.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Risk factors within a cluster are independent, with no mediation, exposure correlation, or effect-size modification between them.
In the paper
“Others act together and risk factor exposures might be correlated at the individual level,155 especially household air pollution and ambient particulate matter pollution, which might have common sources.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [155] Ezzati, 2003, Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors, Lancet source
hedgedstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
- The authors state this as an assumption: Risk factors within a cluster are independent, with no mediation, exposure correlation, or effect-size modification between them.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, we excluded neonatal vitamin A deficiency since it is the subject of three ongoing randomised trials.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“As a result of this reassessment, we restricted our analysis to improved water and improved sanitation compared with unimproved sources following the MDG definitions.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This regional heterogeneity underestimates even greater differences in exposure to, and health effects of, risk factors in national and subnational populations.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Our integrated exposure–response curve, however, does not address how different sources of particulate matter interact in terms of effects and overlapping exposures.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The real burden from water and sanitation could therefore be underestimated if well-implemented household connect ions and water quality interventions have a larger effect than improved water sources alone, and if the combination of poor water and sanitation has a larger effect than a sample interaction of individual effects.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Historical demographic analyses suggest that the introduction of piped water into cities in the late 19th and early 20th centuries had a large beneficial effect on mortality.174”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [174] Preston, 1978, Urban French mortality in the nineteenth century, Popul Stud (Camb) source
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“used effect sizes for all-cause mortality obtained from cohorts of adults mainly from North America and Europe and applied these effects to deaths at all ages.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“This number, which has been widely quoted and equated with the number of deaths attributable to tobacco smoking,187”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [187] Das, 2012, Rethinking our approach to physical activity, Lancet source
boosted- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“The theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution was selected on the basis of values reported in randomised trials; studies of populations with low prevalence of cardiovascular disease suggest that benefits are likely to continue to lower levels.158”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [158] Elliott, 1996, Intersalt revisited: further analyses of 24 hour sodium excretion and blood pressure within and across populations. Intersalt Cooperative Research Group, BMJ source
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the interventions used in previous studies might not have achieved their full efficacy because of the quality of implementation.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“These improvements come from systematic analysis of the available data on underweight, a major modification of RRs after the change in the WHO standard in 2006, and differences in estimates of total and cause-specific mortality.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This approach not only assumes that the cause distribution is the same in all populations, irrespective of region and age structure, but also extends the effects to people younger than those in the cohort study, including to infants and children.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We have expanded the set of components of diet included from a combined category of fruits and vegetables in the 2000 comparative risk assessment to 15 components in GBD 2010”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We have also assessed the burden attributable to childhood wasting and childhood stunting.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“First, the estimates of Black and colleagues were based on 10·3 million child deaths worldwide, itself based on WHO estimates of global child deaths for 2004.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Therefore the two exposures are related, and alternative cooking and heating fuels would have benefits for people who currently use solid fuels as well as those who do not, but live in the same community.173”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [173] Zhou, 2011, Household and community poverty, biomass use, and air pollution in Accra, Ghana, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA source
hedgedstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Furthermore, we quantified the proportion of the population who are vitamin A or zinc deficient instead of classing whole countries as exposed or non-exposed.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“The worldwide increase in body-mass index and blood glucose is of particular concern in view of the absence of effective interventions.62,74”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [62] Danaei, 2011, National, regional, and global trends in fasting plasma glucose and diabetes prevalence since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 370 country-years and 2·7 million participants, Lancet source
- Not checked yetcites [74] Finucane, 2011, National, regional, and global trends in body-mass index since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 960 country-years and 9·1 million participants, Lancet source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“Other evidence161 shows that the effects diminish with increasing exposure for active smoking, a pattern incorporated into our exposure– response curves.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [161] Ambrose, 2004, The pathophysiology of cigarette smoking and cardiovascular disease: an update, J Am Coll Cardiol source
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The relatively small burden estimated for 2010 is partly related to decreases in diarrhoeal disease mortality since 1990, and partly to differences in the distributions of deaths by underlying cause of death.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“A recent study estimated that 5·3 million deaths were attributable to physical inactivity in 2008.186”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [186] Lee, 2012, Effect of physical inactivity on major non-communicable diseases worldwide: an analysis of burden of disease and life expectancy, Lancet source
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“We have also done an updated meta-analysis of quasi experimental and experimental studies.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This discrepancy shows the importance of comparable risk factor assessments and the importance of estimation of attributable burden taking into account differences in underlying disease and injury patterns across populations.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Fifth, we have excluded risks for which insufficient information exists to enable estimation of exposure, or for which the evidence of effect sizes is scarce.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Similarly, we have been unable to control for confounding in observational studies of late initiation of breastfeeding, which is associated with an increased risk of neonatal mortality.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The strengths of our study include a more comprehensive set of risk factors than any previous global or national analysis, consistent analyses in 1990, and 2010, which enables assessment of changes in risk factor burden, the incorporation of substantially more data for risk-factor exposure, improved methods to deal with missing and incomparable data, strong emphasis on comparability of methods”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one. The quote only partly states this claim.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Also, evidence from randomised controlled trials does not exist for several of the dietary components with a large attributable burden—fruits, vegetables, and nuts and seeds—although, as previously noted, evidence from randomised controlled trials does exist for inter mediate outcomes.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“However, we stress that these results should still be interpreted with caution, particularly because of the debate surrounding the effects of seafood omega-3 fatty acids.143,188”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [143] Rizos, 2012, Association between omega-3 fatty acid supplementation and risk of major cardiovascular disease events: a systematic review and meta-analysis, JAMA source
- Not checked yetcites [188] Hu, 2012, Omega-3 fatty acids and secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease—is it just a fish tale?: Comment on ‘efficacy of omega-3 fatty acid supplements (eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid) in the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease’, Arch Intern Med source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Similarly, the large body of epidemiological evidence for cardiovascular risk factors shows a relation between age and the effect size of risk factors for cardiovascular disease.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: fails — The paper may give no reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. The paper may give no reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“More importantly, for some risk factors we have less direct measures of exposure than for others. For example, for household air pollution from solid fuels we measured exposure on the basis of household fuel use rather than personal exposure to particulate matter; for other risks, such as blood pressure, we have direct biological measurements of exposure.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The principal advantage of doing a comprehensive and comparable scientific assessment of disease burden caused by different risk factors is that it provides the evidence base for informing discussion about policy.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Fourth, we have combined epidemiological evidence for effect sizes using studies across different periods, which could mask underlying temporal changes in risk; no data presently exist to enable an examination of the extent to which effect sizes might change over time.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Finally, it is important to stress that the size of the attributable risk factor burden does not equal priority for action since prioritisation also depends on availability, cost, and effectiveness of inter vention strategies to reduce exposures to these risks.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Infants who might too ill or weak to breastfeed are more likely to die.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Public policy to improve the health of populations will be more effective if it addresses the major causes of disease burden.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: fails — It may be too vague to check against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may be too vague to check against evidence.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the validity of this approach could change as new evidence accumulates.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“Empirical assessments show that the pooled effect of risks and interventions trends towards a null result over time189,190 and this pattern could apply to seafood omega-3 fatty acids since the earlier, primarily observational effect sizes tended to show a larger effect than did the more recent randomised controlled trials.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it. It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The extended analysis of components of diet does not include saturated fat beyond its replacement by polyunsaturated fats.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
In the paper
“For example, no large-scale trials have been done of interventions for high body-mass index that measured cause-specific deaths although effects on disease incidence have been investigated in trials.193”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [193] Knowler, 2002, Reduction in the incidence of type 2 diabetes with lifestyle intervention or metformin, N Engl J Med source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“However, observational studies indicate that there might be no benefits if saturated fat reduction is associated with an increase in carbohydrates,91 which is also supported by the absence of benefits from a low fat diet in the Women’s Health Initiative.192”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [91] Jakobsen, 2009, Major types of dietary fat and risk of coronary heart disease: a pooled analysis of 11 cohort studies, Am J Clin Nutr source
- Not checked yetcites [192] Howard, 2006, Low-fat dietary pattern and risk of cardiovascular disease: the Women's Health Initiative Randomized Controlled Dietary Modification Trial, JAMA source
hedgedstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“Ecological studies suggest that saturated fat intake is a significant risk factor for mortality from ischaemic heart disease.191”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked yetcites [191] Slattery, 1988, Trends in coronary heart disease mortality and food consumption in the United States between 1909 and 1980, Am J Clin Nutr source
hedgedstates a cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Such age-related changes might be present for other outcomes.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
None of the sources cited for this claim have been checked yet.
In the paper
“As noted, the pooled effect of risks and interventions trends towards the null result over time;189,190 the implication being that risks for which only a few studies have been done might have their effect overestimated compared with risks for which a large body of evidence exists.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
What the sources say
hedgedstates a possible cause- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Low birthweight was not a disease outcome in GBD 2010 but is associated with an increased risk of neonatal mortality.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Discussion
plainstates an association- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
Before this study, no full update of worldwide risk-attributable disease burden had appeared since the 2000 comparative risk assessment.
“No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000”
The paper relies on this without support.
Earlier work had not examined how risk-attributable burden changed over time.
“no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
When only one outcome's relative risk was available, the authors assumed it held for the other outcome unless evidence indicated otherwise.
“In these cases, we assumed that the reported RR would apply equally to morbidity or mortality, unless evidence suggested a differential effect.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Individual dietary component relative risks combine multiplicatively.
“assuming a multiplicative relation between RRs for individual components”
The paper relies on this without support.
High body-mass index acts in part via blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fasting plasma glucose.
“For example, the effects of high body-mass index are partly mediated through high blood pressure, high total cholesterol, and high fasting plasma glucose”
The paper relies on this without support.
Solid-fuel household air pollution adds to ambient fine particulate pollution.
“and household air pollution from solid fuels (wood, crop, residues, animal dung, charcoal, and coal) contributes to ambient particulate matter pollution.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Risk factors within a cluster are independent, with no mediation, exposure correlation, or effect-size modification between them.
“This approach assumes that risk factors are independent—ie, it does not account for mediation, exposure correlation, or effect size modification that might exist between risk factors in a cluster.155”
“we have approximated the joint effects of clusters of risk factors assuming that risk factors included in each cluster are independent.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Uncertainties in exposure, relative risk, and underlying burden attributable to the outcome are independent, except where correlation structure was explicitly modelled.
“We otherwise assumed that the uncertainties in exposure, RR, and underlying burden attributable to the outcome were independent.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
For clusters of risk factors, the joint effects were approximated by treating risk factors within each cluster as independent.
“For clusters of risk factors we have approximated the joint effects, assuming that risk factors within each cluster are independent.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Even so, as much as 40% of diarrhoea is not accounted for by poor quality water and inadequate sanitation and some of this burden is certainly due to food.”
From Food Safety in Low and Middle Income Countries (2015) · cites this paper as [37]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Several prior reports have extensively reviewed the evidence for CVD effects of dietary sodium, including strengths and limitations of various studies and implications for causality.[19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26]”
From Global Sodium Consumption and Death from Cardiovascular Causes (2014) · cites this paper as [21]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“For diabetes, the risk factor analysis99 provides an assessment of all mortality associated with hyperglycaemia. This number is substantially larger than the number of deaths directly coded to diabetes estimated here.”
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“In 2010, household air pollution was estimated to be responsible for 3.5 million premature deaths worldwide.2”
From Household air pollution and the sustainable development goals (2016) · cites this paper as [2]
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“No matter what statistical sources one chooses to consult, both national or international (Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, The GBD 2010 Study; Lim et al., 2012; Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development [OECD], 2011, 2015; WHO, 2014a), the existence of differential mortality and morbidity between the sexes appears clearly.”
From Health From a Gender Perspective (2017) · cites this paper as Lim et al., 2012
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Previous GBD studies31, 32 have assessed the contribution of smoking to overall disease burden through the comparative risk assessment framework developed by Murray and Lopez.33”
The check wasn’t confident either way, so it gives no verdict — never disputed.
In the citing paper
“GBD 2010's capacity to generate country-level burden as well as regional estimates was especially relevant for MDD, which has been linked to risk factors such as conflict [2],[37], intimate partner violence, and child sexual abuse [15], the levels of which vary between countries.”
From Burden of depressive disorders by country, sex, age, and year: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2013) · cites this paper as [15]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe check wasn’t confident either way, so it gives no verdict — never disputed.
In the citing paper
“Contaminants in food were not even included as risk factors in previous studies of the global burden of all diseases [3].”
From World Health Organization Global Estimates and Regional Comparisons of the Burden of Foodborne Disease in 2010 (2015) · cites this paper as [3]
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredIn the citing paper
“GBD 2010's capacity to generate country-level burden as well as regional estimates was especially relevant for MDD, which has been linked to risk factors such as conflict [2],[37], intimate partner violence, and child sexual abuse [15], the levels of which vary between countries.”
From Burden of depressive disorders by country, sex, age, and year: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2013) · cites this paper as [15]
In the citing paper
“The increasing prevalence of smoking20 and other risk factors21 for stroke in the developing world is particularly alarming”
From Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2014) · cites this paper as [21]
In the citing paper
“Differences in the prevalence and significance of stroke risk factors,21–23 and in the accessibility of health services and level of control of these risk factors,24 are likely to account for the large geographical variations in stroke incidence.”
From Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (2014) · cites this paper as [21]
In the citing paper
“We used the resulting predicted exposure fractions among prevalent cases as a proxy for PAFs for liver cirrhosis. This follows from the direct method of approximating PAFs:”
From Liver cirrhosis mortality in 187 countries between 1980 and 2010: a systematic analysis (2014) · cites this paper as [33]
In the citing paper
“A high-quality diet comprising abundant amounts of whole grains, fruits, vegetables, nuts, and fish is one of the most important factors in preventing early death and disability worldwide (2).”
From Food groups and risk of all-cause mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies , (2017) · cites this paper as [2]
In the citing paper
“Deaths attributable to hypertension increased by 28.8% from 1990 to 2010, while deaths attributable to obesity increased by 71.7%18.”
From Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (2014) · cites this paper as [18]
In the citing paper
“High body mass index ranks sixth in the global list, ascending from 10th position in 1990.”
From Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (2014) · cites this paper as [18]
In the citing paper
“Analysis of global risk factors in the GBD 2010 study showed that high blood pressure is the number one risk factor globally (increasing from 4th position in 1990), accounting for 7% of all global DALYs.”
From Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (2014) · cites this paper as [18]
In the citing paper
“Deaths attributable to hypertension increased by 28.8% from 1990 to 2010, while deaths attributable to obesity increased by 71.7%18.”
From Worldwide Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation: A Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study (2014) · cites this paper as [18]
In the citing paper
“Suboptimal diet is the leading risk factor for death and disability in the US and worldwide.1, 2”
From Dietary and Policy Priorities for Cardiovascular Disease, Diabetes, and Obesity: A Comprehensive Review (2016) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“Across the population, alcohol produces net harms, due to increased risk of cancers, liver disease, cardiomyopathy, accidents, violence, homicides, and suicides.1, 294”
From Dietary and Policy Priorities for Cardiovascular Disease, Diabetes, and Obesity: A Comprehensive Review (2016) · cites this paper as [1]
In the citing paper
“The Global Burden of Disease study cites diet as a major factor behind the rise in hypertension, diabetes, obesity, and other CVD components (3).”
From Food Consumption and its Impact on Cardiovascular Disease: Importance of Solutions Focused on the Globalized Food System (2015) · cites this paper as [3]
In the citing paper
“Recommended maximum intakes in major dietary guidelines ranged from 1200 to 2400 mg/d.[19][20][21][22][23][24]”
From Global Sodium Consumption and Death from Cardiovascular Causes (2014) · cites this paper as [21]
In the citing paper
“A study reported a 6% increase in premature deaths attributable to ozone globally from 1990 to 2010 (71), although the estimates (143,000 deaths in 1990 and 152,000 deaths in 2010) seem to be substantially lower than the estimated reported in other studies.”
From Ozone pollution: A Major health hazard worldwide (2019) · cites this paper as [71]
In the citing paper
“Major behavioural risk factors such as obesity, smoking, excess alcohol consumption and poor dietary patterns account for large shares of the burden of morbidity and mortality, both nationally and globally.1–3”
From Major health-related behaviours and mental well-being in the general population: the Health Survey for England (2014) · cites this paper as [1]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
“ambient particulate matter pollution accounted for 3·1 million (2·7 million to 3·5 million) deaths and 3·1% (2·7–3·4) of global DALYs.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
“the burden attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution has largely remained unchanged (3·2% [2·8–3·7] of global DALYs in 1990 vs 3·0% [2·6–3·4] in 2010)”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Abstract > Findings
“unimproved water we and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4–1·6) of global DALYs in 2010.”
§ A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 > Results
“unimproved water and sanitation, (0·3 million [0 to 0·6 million] deaths and 0·9% [0·04–1·6] DALYs)”
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Self-citationEuropean Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice (version 2012)
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2021 ESC Guidelines on cardiovascular disease prevention in clinical practice
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“34 The methods employed to generate the measures from past GBD rounds closely followed those used for GBD 2019 14 and have been extensively peer-reviewed over previous GBD rounds 9–14 and concurrently as part of the peer review process for GBD 2021.”
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The Global Burden of Cancer 2013
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Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Lim, S. S., Vos, T., Flaxman, A. D., Danaei, G., Shibuya, K., Adair-Rohani, H., AlMazroa, M. A., Amann, M., Anderson, H. R., Andrews, K. G., Aryee, M., Atkinson, C., Bacchus, L. J., Bahalim, A. N., Balakrishnan, K., Balmes, J., Barker-Collo, S., Baxter, A., Bell, M. L., Blore, J. D., Blyth, F., Bonner, C., Borges, G., Bourne, R., Boussinesq, M., Brauer, M., Brooks, P., Bruce, N. G., Brunekreef, B., Bryan-Hancock, C., Bucello, C., Buchbinder, R., Bull, F., Burnett, R. T., Byers, T. E., Calabria, B., Carapetis, J., Carnahan, E., Chafe, Z., Charlson, F., Chen, H., Chen, J. S., Cheng, A. T.-A., Child, J. C., Cohen, A., Colson, K. E., Cowie, B. C., Darby, S., Darling, S., Davis, A., Degenhardt, L., Dentener, F., Des Jarlais, D. C., Devries, K., Dherani, M., Ding, E. L., Dorsey, E. R., Driscoll, T., Edmond, K., Ali, S. E., Engell, R. E., Erwin, P. J., Fahimi, S., Falder, G., Farzadfar, F., Ferrari, A., Finucane, M. M., Flaxman, S., Fowkes, F. G. R., Freedman, G., Freeman, M. K., Gakidou, E., Ghosh, S., Giovannucci, E., Gmel, G., Graham, K., Grainger, R., Grant, B., Gunnell, D., Gutierrez, H. R., Hall, W., Hoek, H. W., Hogan, A., Hosgood, H. D., Hoy, D., Hu, H., Hubbell, B. J., Hutchings, S. J., Ibeanusi, S. E., Jacklyn, G. L., Jasrasaria, R., Jonas, J. B., Kan, H., Kanis, J. A., Kassebaum, N., Kawakami, N., Khang, Y.-H., Khatibzadeh, S., Khoo, J.-P., Kok, C., Laden, F., Lalloo, R., Lan, Q., Lathlean, T., Leasher, J. L., Leigh, J., Li, Y., Lin, J. K., Lipshultz, S. E., London, S., Lozano, R., Lu, Y., Mak, J., Malekzadeh, R., Mallinger, L., Marcenes, W., March, L., Marks, R., Martin, R., McGale, P., McGrath, J., Mehta, S., Memish, Z. A., Mensah, G. A., Merriman, T. R., Micha, R., Michaud, C., Mishra, V., Hanafiah, K. M., Mokdad, A. A., Morawska, L., Mozaffarian, D., Murphy, T., Naghavi, M., Neal, B., Nelson, P. K., Nolla, J. M., Norman, R., Olives, C., Omer, S. B., Orchard, J., Osborne, R., Ostro, B., Page, A., Pandey, K. D., Parry, C. D., Passmore, E., Patra, J., Pearce, N., Pelizzari, P. M., Petzold, M., Phillips, M. R., Pope, D., Pope, C. A., Powles, J., Rao, M., Razavi, H., Rehfuess, E. A., Rehm, J. T., Ritz, B., Rivara, F. P., Roberts, T., Robinson, C., Rodriguez-Portales, J. A., Romieu, I., Room, R., Rosenfeld, L. C., Roy, A., Rushton, L., Salomon, J. A., Sampson, U., Sanchez-Riera, L., Sanman, E., Sapkota, A., Seedat, S., Shi, P., Shield, K., Shivakoti, R., Singh, G. M., Sleet, D. A., Smith, E., Smith, K. R., Stapelberg, N. J., Steenland, K., Stöckl, H., Stovner, L. J., Straif, K., Straney, L., Thurston, G. D., Tran, J. H., Van Dingenen, R., van Donkelaar, A., Veerman, J. L., Vijayakumar, L., Weintraub, R., Weissman, M. M., White, R. A., Whiteford, H., Wiersma, S. T., Wilkinson, J. D., Williams, H. C., Williams, W., Wilson, N., Woolf, A. D., Yip, P., Zielinski, J. M., Lopez, A. D., Murray, C. J., & Ezzati, M.
- Affiliations
- University of Washington (US)
- The University of Queensland (AU)
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (US)
- Harvard University (US)
- Ministry of Health (SA)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- St George's, University of London (GB)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Sri Ramachandra Institute of Higher Education and Research (IN)
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- University of Auckland (NZ)
- Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research (AU)
- Yale University (US)
- The University of Sydney (AU)
- Anglia Ruskin University (GB)
- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- University of Liverpool (GB)
- Utrecht University (NL)
- The University of Western Australia (AU)
- Health Canada (CA)
- Colorado School of Public Health (US)
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (US)
- Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia Sinica (TW)
- Health Effects Institute (US)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Medical Research Council (GB)
- National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre (AU)
- European Commission (BE)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- Mayo Clinic (US)
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Tehran University of Medical Sciences (IR)
- Carnegie Mellon University (US)
- Addiction Switzerland (CH)
- Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CA)
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- Parnassia Groep (NL)
- Australian National University (AU)
- Monash University (AU)
- University of Toronto (CA)
- Environmental Protection Agency (US)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- University of Port Harcourt (NG)
- Heidelberg University (DE)
- Fudan University (CN)
- The University of Tokyo (JP)
- University of Ulsan (KR)
- Spinal Cord Injury Ontario (CA)
- Nova Southeastern University (US)
- University of Miami (US)
- Digestive Disease Research Institute (IR)
- Queen Mary University of London (GB)
- Dalhousie University (CA)
- Alfaisal University (SA)
- University of Cape Town (ZA)
- University of Otago (NZ)
- Agricultural University of Athens (GR)
- China Medical Board (US)
- United Nations (US)
- The George Institute for Global Health (AU)
- Emory University (US)
- Deakin University (AU)
- California Environmental Protection Agency (US)
- World Bank (US)
- South African Medical Research Council (ZA)
- St. Michael's Hospital (CA)
- Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (US)
- University of Gothenburg (SE)
- Shanghai Jiao Tong University (CN)
- Brigham Young University (US)
- Center for Disease Analysis (US)
- Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (DE)
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (CL)
- Centre international de recherche sur le cancer (FR)
- Vanderbilt University (US)
- University of Maryland, Baltimore (US)
- Stellenbosch University (ZA)
- National Center for Injury Prevention and Control (US)
- Northern Sydney Local Health District (AU)
- Griffith University (AU)
- Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO)
- Royal Children's Hospital (AU)
- Columbia University (US)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
- University of Nottingham (GB)
- National Acoustic Laboratories (AU)
- University of Hong Kong (HK)
- Corresponding author
- Lim, Stephen S
- ORCID
- Lim, Stephen S
- Vos, Theo
- Flaxman, Abraham D
- Danaei, Goodarz
- Shibuya, Kenji
- Amann, Markus
- Andrews, Kathryn G
- Aryee, Martin
- Bacchus, Loraine J
- Balakrishnan, Kalpana
- Balmes, John
- Barker-Collo, Suzanne
- Baxter, Amanda
- Bell, Michelle L
- Blore, Jed D
- Blyth, Fiona
- Bonner, Carissa
- Borges, Guilherme
- Bourne, Rupert
- Boussinesq, Michel
- Brauer, Michael
- Brooks, Peter
- Brunekreef, Bert
- Buchbinder, Rachelle
- Bull, Fiona
- Burnett, Richard T
- Calabria, Bianca
- Carapetis, Jonathan
- Carnahan, Emily
- Charlson, Fiona
- Chen, Honglei
- Chen, Jian Shen
- Child, Jennifer Christine
- Cohen, Aaron
- Darby, Sarah
- Davis, Adrian
- Degenhardt, Louisa
- Dentener, Frank
- Devries, Karen
- Dherani, Mukesh
- Ding, Eric L
- Driscoll, Tim
- Edmond, Karen
- Farzadfar, Farshad
- Ferrari, Alize
- Flaxman, Seth
- Gakidou, Emmanuela
- Ghosh, Santu
- Giovannucci, Edward
- Gmel, Gerhard
- Graham, Kathryn
- Grainger, Rebecca
- Gunnell, David
- Hall, Wayne
- Hoek, Hans W
- Hogan, Anthony
- Hu, Howard
- Hubbell, Bryan J
- Hutchings, Sally J
- Jacklyn, Gemma L
- Jasrasaria, Rashmi
- Kan, Haidong
- Kassebaum, Nicholas
- Kawakami, Norito
- Khang, Young-Ho
- Khatibzadeh, Shahab
- Khoo, Jon-Paul
- Kok, Cindy
- Laden, Francine
- Lalloo, Ratilal
- Leasher, Janet L
- Leigh, James
- Li, Yang
- Lin, John Kent
- Lipshultz, Steven E
- London, Stephanie
- Lozano, Rafael
- Lu, Yuan
- Mak, Joelle
- Malekzadeh, Reza
- Marcenes, Wagner
- March, Lyn
- Martin, Randall
- McGale, Paul
- McGrath, John
- Mehta, Sumi
- Memish, Ziad A
- Mensah, George A
- Merriman, Tony R
- Micha, Renata
- Mishra, Vinod
- Hanafiah, Khayriyyah Mohd
- Mozaffarian, Dariush
- Murphy, Tasha
- Naghavi, Mohsen
- Neal, Bruce
- Omer, Saad B
- Orchard, Jessica
- Osborne, Richard
- Ostro, Bart
- Page, Andrew
- Parry, Charles DH
- Patra, Jayadeep
- Pearce, Neil
- Pelizzari, Pamela M
- Petzold, Max
- Pope, C Arden
- Powles, John
- Rao, Mayuree
- Razavi, Homie
- Rehfuess, Eva A
- Rehm, Jürgen T
- Ritz, Beate
- Rivara, Frederick P
- Roberts, Thomas
- Robinson, Carolyn
- Room, Robin
- Rosenfeld, Lisa C
- Roy, Ananya
- Salomon, Joshua A
- Sapkota, Amir
- Seedat, Soraya
- Shi, Peilin
- Shield, Kevin
- Shivakoti, Rupak
- Singh, Gitanjali M
- Sleet, David A
- Smith, Emma
- Smith, Kirk R
- Stapelberg, Nicolas JC
- Steenland, Kyle
- Stöckl, Heidi
- Stovner, Lars Jacob
- Straney, Lahn
- Thurston, George D
- Weissman, Myrna M
- White, Richard A
- Whiteford, Harvey
- Wiersma, Steven T
- Wilkinson, James D
- Williams, Hywel C
- Williams, Warwick
- Wilson, Nicholas
- Woolf, Anthony D
- Yip, Paul
- Murray, Christopher JL
- Ezzati, Majid
- Venue
- The Lancet
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2012-12
- Volume
- 380
- Issue
- 9859
- Pages
- 2224-2260
- ISSN
- 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
- 0140-6736
- PMC
- PMC4156511
- OpenAlex
- W2110052313
- Cited by
- 11,805
- References
- 199
- Citations by year
- 2026: 140 · 2025: 304 · 2024: 462 · 2023: 616 · 2022: 719 · 2021: 932 · 2020: 983 · 2019: 1040 · 2018: 1145 · 2017: 1249 · 2016: 1289 · 2015: 1280 · 2014: 1055 · 2013: 544 · 2012: 17
- FWCI
- 596.11
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Licence
- Locations
- The Lancet (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UWA Profiles and Research Repository (UWA) (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- RECERCAT (Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya) (acceptedVersion)
- QUT ePrints (Queensland University of Technology) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- NSUWorks (Nova Southeastern University) (submittedVersion)
- Research Bank (Australian Catholic University) (submittedVersion)
- Adelaide Research & Scholarship (AR&S) (University of Adelaide) (submittedVersion)
- Dipòsit Digital de la Universitat de Barcelona (Universitat de Barcelona) (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- Deakin Research Online (Deakin University) (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Institutional Repositories DataBase (IRDB) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Research Portal (King's College London) (submittedVersion)
- ANU Open Research (Australian National University) (submittedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (submittedVersion)
- Griffith Research Online (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Swinburne figshare (Swinburne University of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (submittedVersion)
- Seoul National University Open Repository (Seoul National University) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (ES00260)
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
- Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
- Health Effects Institute
- World Health Organization
- William and Flora Hewlett Foundation
- Vanderbilt University
- Harvard University
- Yeshiva University
- University of Washington
- Johns Hopkins University
- Carnegie Mellon University
- University of Otago
- University of Ottawa
- Anglia Ruskin University
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
- Cancer Research UK
- National Institute for Health and Care Research
- University of Warwick
- Imperial College London
- Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust
- University of Oxford
- European Commission
- University of Bristol
- National Research Foundation
- Rijksuniversiteit Groningen
- Monash University
- University of Melbourne
- Academia Sinica
- University of Ulsan
- Bundesministerium für Gesundheit
- Fudan University
- University of Toronto
- Department of Health, State Government of Victoria
- Tehran University of Medical Sciences and Health Services
- Universitair Medisch Centrum Groningen
- Safe Work Australia
- Sociedad Española de Reumatología
- Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education
- National Institutes of Health (2002-2004, ES00260.)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Yeshiva University
- Pan American Health Organization
- Health Canada
- Medical Research Council
- Joint Research Centre
- National Health and Medical Research Council
- Health Research Council of New Zealand
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (22390130)
- National Institute for Materials Science
- School of Public Health, Imperial College London
- Institute of Biomedical Sciences, Academia Sinica
- National Institute on Aging (RC1AG035616)
- National Cancer Institute
- National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (P30DK048520)
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (ES00260, P30ES000260)
- Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University
- Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute
- NHLBI Division of Intramural Research
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Global Health and Epidemiology
- Keywords
- risk factors, risk factor clustering, attributable burden, disability-adjusted life years, years of life lost, years lived with disability, hypertension, smoking, alcohol consumption, household air pollution, solid fuels, underweight children, dietary risk factors, physical inactivity, sodium intake, water and sanitation, child mortality, global burden of disease, relative risk, exposure distribution
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Age Factors, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Male, Middle Aged, Mortality, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Global Health, Risk Assessment, Quality-Adjusted Life Years, Young Adult
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-09-28, under version 3 of the claim definition (prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-09-28 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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