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Unrealistic optimism about future life events
Abstract
Two studies investigated the tendency of people to be unrealistically optimistic about future life events. In Study 1, 258 college students estimated how much their own chances of experiencing 42 events differed from the chances of their classmates. Overall, they rated their own chances to be above average for posi-tive events and below average for negative events, ps<.001. Cognitive and motivational considerations led to predictions that degree of desirability, per-ceived probability, personal experience, perceived controllability, and stereotype salience would influence the amount of optimistic bias evoked by different events. All predictions were supported, although the pattern of effects differed for positive and negative events. Study 2 tested the idea that people are un-realistically optimistic because they focus on factors that improve their own chances of achieving desirable outcomes and fail to realize that others may have just as many factors in their favor. Students listed the factors that they thought influenced their own chances of experiencing eight future events. When such lists were read by a second group of students, the amount of unrealistic opti-mism shown by this second group for the same eight events decreased signifi-cantly, although it was not eliminated. According to popular belief, people tend to think they are invulnerable. They expect others to be victims of misfortune, not them-selves. Such ideas imply not merely a hopeful outlook on life, but an error in judgment that can be labeled unrealistic optimism. It is usually impossible to demonstrate that an individual's optimistic expectations about the future are unrealistic. An individual might be quite correct in asserting that his or her chances of experiencing a negative event are less than average. On a group basis, however, it is relatively easy to test for an optimistic bias. If all people claim their changes of ex-periencing a negative event are less than
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“In the optimism/pessimism classification, there seems to be a bias toward optimism, typically expressed in people believing that they will live longer than average, underestimating divorce chances, health problems and risks such as car accidents (Weinstein, 1980).”
From Individual consistency in the accuracy and distribution of confidence judgments (2016) · cites this paper as Weinstein, 1980
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Metadata
- Authors
- Weinstein, N. D.
- Affiliations
- Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)
- Corresponding author
- Weinstein, Neil D.
- Venue
- Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
- Published
- 1980-11
- Volume
- 39
- Issue
- 5
- Pages
- 806-820
- ISSN
- 0022-3514 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1315
- OpenAlex
- W2145046219
- Cited by
- 4,999
- References
- 26
- Citations by year
- 2026: 110 · 2025: 159 · 2024: 175 · 2023: 180 · 2022: 200 · 2021: 226 · 2020: 230 · 2019: 180 · 2018: 199 · 2017: 173 · 2016: 176 · 2015: 227 · 2014: 201 · 2013: 195 · 2012: 222
- FWCI
- 20.76
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (publishedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Applied Psychology › Optimism, Hope, and Well-being
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Keywords
- optimism bias, self-other differences, perceived probability, perceived controllability, positive and negative events, self-protection
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