Distinct encoding of decision confidence in human medial prefrontal cortex
Open accessPublished version of a preprint
Abstract
Abstract Our confidence in a choice and the evidence pertaining to a choice appear to be inseparable. An emerging computational consensus is, however, that the brain should maintain separate estimates of these quantities for adaptive behavioural control. Here we devised a psychophysical task to decouple confidence in a perceptual decision from both the reliability of sensory evidence and the relation of such evidence with respect to a choice boundary. Using human fMRI, we found that an area in medial prefrontal cortex (perigenual anterior cingulate cortex, pgACC) tracked expected performance, an aggregate signature of decision confidence, whereas neural areas previously proposed to encode decision confidence instead tracked sensory reliability (posterior parietal cortex and ventral striatum) or boundary distance (pre-supplementary motor area). Supporting that information encoded by pgACC is central to a subjective sense of decision confidence, we show that pgACC activity does not simply co-vary with expected performance but is also linked to within-subject and between-subject variation in explicit confidence estimates. Our study is consistent with the proposal that the brain maintains choice-dependent and choice-independent estimates of certainty, and sheds light on why dysfunctional confidence often emerges following prefrontal lesions and/or degeneration. Significance Statement Recent computational models propose that our sense of confidence in a choice reflects an estimate of the probability that the choice is correct. However, it has proven difficult to experimentally separate decision confidence from its component parts, such as our certainty about perceptual evidence or choice requirements. Here we devised a task to dissociate these quantities and isolate a distinct encoding of decision confidence in the medial prefrontal cortex of the human brain. We show that activity in this area not only tracks expected performance on a task but is also related to both within-subject and between-subject variation in a subjective sense of confidence. Our study illuminates why dysfunctional confidence often emerges following damage to prefrontal cortex.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
In humans, sensory uncertainty (motion coherence) is related to activity in extrastriate visual and parietal cortex (MT+ and bilateral intraparietal sulcus), whereas signatures of propositional confidence are observed in perigenual anterior cingulate cortex (pgACC), part of ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC).
“Whereas sensory uncertainty (motion coherence) was related to activity in extrastriate visual and parietal cortex (notably, areas MT+ and bilateral intraparietal sulcus, a human homologue of LIP), signatures of propositional confidence were instead observed within perigenual anterior cingulate cortex (pgACC), part of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC).”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Bang & Fleming 2018
Early confidence-related signals are seen in vmPFC (in a pgACC region similar to that identified by Bang & Fleming), whereas later judgment-related activation is seen in lateral frontopolar cortex.
“Early confidence-related signals were seen in vmPFC [in a pgACC region similar to the one identified by Bang & Fleming (2018)], whereas later judgment-related activation was seen in lateral frontopolar cortex.”
From Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis (2024) · cites this paper as Bang & Fleming 2018
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
A neural substrate of prediction and reward
Schultz, W., Dayan, P., & Montague, P. R. (1997) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.275.5306.1593 · Cited by 9,388 · see citing works
Ashburner, J., & Friston, K. J. (2005) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2005.02.018 · Cited by 7,507 · see citing works
Humans integrate visual and haptic information in a statistically optimal fashion
Ernst, M. O., & Banks, M. S. (2002) · Nature · doi:10.1038/415429a · Cited by 4,844 · see citing works
Quest: A Bayesian adaptive psychometric method
Watson, A. B., & Pelli, D. G. (1983) · Perception & Psychophysics · doi:10.3758/bf03202828 · Cited by 2,398 · see citing works
The analysis of visual motion: a comparison of neuronal and psychophysical performance
Britten, K., Shadlen, M., Newsome, W., & Movshon, J. (1992) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.12-12-04745.1992 · Cited by 1,958 · see citing works
Maunsell, J., & van Essen, D. (1983) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.03-12-02563.1983 · Cited by 1,602 · see citing works
Roitman, J. D., & Shadlen, M. N. (2002) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.22-21-09475.2002 · Cited by 1,589 · cited 4× · see citing works
“2A, logistic regression; coherence: t (31) = 11.”
BackgroundInfluentialBirn, R. M., Diamond, J. B., Smith, M. A., & Bandettini, P. A. (2006) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2006.02.048 · Cited by 1,342 · see citing works
HDDM: Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the Drift-Diffusion Model in Python
Wiecki, T. V., Sofer, I., & Frank, M. J. (2013) · Frontiers in Neuroinformatics · doi:10.3389/fninf.2013.00014 · Cited by 1,047 · see citing works
Representation of Confidence Associated with a Decision by Neurons in the Parietal Cortex
Kiani, R., & Shadlen, M. N. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1169405 · Cited by 1,027 · see citing works
Modeling Geometric Deformations in EPI Time Series
Andersson, J., Hutton, C., Ashburner, J., Turner, R., & Friston, K. J. (2001) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1006/nimg.2001.0746 · Cited by 1,004 · see citing works
Neural correlates, computation and behavioural impact of decision confidence
Kepecs, A., Uchida, N., Zariwala, H. A., & Mainen, Z. F. (2008) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature07200 · Cited by 809 · see citing works
Functional Specialization within Rostral Prefrontal Cortex (Area 10): A Meta-analysis
Gilbert, S. J., Spengler, S., Simons, J. S., Steele, J. D., Lawrie, S. M., Frith, C., & Burgess, P. W. (2006) · Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience · doi:10.1162/jocn.2006.18.6.932 · Cited by 681 · see citing works
Birn, R. M., Smith, M. A., Jones, T. B., & Bandettini, P. A. (2008) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2007.11.059 · Cited by 645 · see citing works
Probabilistic population codes for Bayesian decision making
Beck, J. M., Ma, W. J., Kiani, R., Hanks, T., Churchland, A. K., Roitman, J., Shadlen, M. N., Latham, P. E., & Pouget, A. (2008) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2008.09.021 · Cited by 645 · see citing works
Striatum and pre-SMA facilitate decision-making under time pressure
Forstmann, B. U., Dutilh, G., Brown, S. D., Neumann, J., von Cramon, D. Y., Ridderinkhof, K. R., & Wagenmakers, E. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0805903105 · Cited by 642 · see citing works
Motivation and cognitive control in the human prefrontal cortex
Kouneiher, F., Charron, S., & Koechlin, E. (2009) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.2321 · Cited by 590 · see citing works
Confidence in value-based choice
De Martino, B., Fleming, S. M., Garrett, N., & Dolan, R. J. (2013) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.3279 · Cited by 534 · see citing works
Self-citationConfidence and certainty: Distinct probabilistic quantities for different goals
Pouget, A., Drugowitsch, J., & Kepecs, A. (2016) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.4240 · Cited by 528 · see citing works
Chang, C. E., & Glover, G. H. (2009) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2009.05.012 · Cited by 486 · see citing works
Neubert, F.-X., Mars, R. B., Thomas, A. G., Sallet, J., & Rushworth, M. F. S. (2014) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2013.11.012 · Cited by 416 · see citing works
Decision Making and Sequential Sampling from Memory
Shadlen, M. N., & Shohamy, D. (2016) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2016.04.036 · Cited by 412 · see citing works
Prefrontal Contributions to Metacognition in Perceptual Decision Making
Fleming, S. M., Huijgen, J., & Dolan, R. J. (2012) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.6489-11.2012 · Cited by 391 · see citing works
Self-citationBrain mediators of predictive cue effects on perceived pain
Atlas, L. Y., Bolger, N., Lindquist, M. A., & Wager, T. D. (2010) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.0057-10.2010 · Cited by 389 · see citing works
Neubert, F.-X., Mars, R. B., Sallet, J., & Rushworth, M. F. S. (2015) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1410767112 · Cited by 365 · see citing works
Brain Areas Sensitive to Coherent Visual Motion
Braddick, O., O'Brien, J. M. D., Wattam-Bell, J., Atkinson, J., Hartley, T., & Turner, R. (2001) · Perception · doi:10.1068/p3048 · Cited by 351 · see citing works
Confidence as Bayesian probability: From neural origins to behavior
Meyniel, F., Sigman, M., & Mainen, Z. F. (2015) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2015.09.039 · Cited by 349 · see citing works
Domain-specific impairment in metacognitive accuracy following anterior prefrontal lesions
Fleming, S., Ryu, J., Golfinos, J., & Blackmon, K. E. (2014) · Brain : a journal of neurology · doi:10.1093/brain/awu221 · Cited by 318 · see citing works
Self-citationNeural Coding of Uncertainty and Probability
Ma, W. J., & Jazayeri, M. (2014) · Annual Review of Neuroscience · doi:10.1146/annurev-neuro-071013-014017 · Cited by 290 · see citing works
Detection of time-varying signals in event-related fMRI designs
Grinband, J., Wager, T. D., Lindquist, M. A., Ferrera, V. P., & Hirsch, J. (2008) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2008.07.065 · Cited by 268 · see citing works
Automatic integration of confidence in the brain valuation signal
Lebreton, M., Abitbol, R., Daunizeau, J., & Pessiglione, M. (2015) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.4064 · Cited by 265 · see citing works
Responses of pulvinar neurons reflect a subject's confidence in visual categorization
Komura, Y., Nikkuni, A., Hirashima, N., Uetake, T., & Miyamoto, A. (2013) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.3393 · Cited by 226 · see citing works
The impact of physiological noise correction on fMRI at 7 T
Hutton, C., Josephs, O., Stadler, J., Featherstone, E., Reid, A., Speck, O., Bernarding, J., & Weiskopf, N. (2011) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2011.04.018 · Cited by 211 · see citing works
Diffusion model analysis with MATLAB: A DMAT primer
Vandekerckhove, J., & Tuerlinckx, F. (2008) · Behavior Research Methods · doi:10.3758/brm.40.1.61 · Cited by 207 · see citing works
Midbrain dopamine neurons signal belief in choice accuracy during a perceptual decision
Lak, A., Nomoto, K., Keramati, M., Sakagami, M., & Kepecs, A. (2017) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2017.02.026 · Cited by 170 · see citing works
Self-Other Mergence in the Frontal Cortex during Cooperation and Competition
Wittmann, M. K., Kolling, N., Faber, N. S., Scholl, J., Nelissen, N., & Rushworth, M. F. S. (2016) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2016.06.022 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Neural mediators of changes of mind about perceptual decisions
Fleming, S. M., van der Putten, E. J., & Daw, N. D. (2018) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41593-018-0104-6 · Cited by 155 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Relationship between Perceptual Decision Variables and Confidence in the Human Brain
Hebart, M. N., Schriever, Y., Donner, T. H., & Haynes, J. (2014) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhu181 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
Confidence matching in group decision-making
Bang, D., Aitchison, L., Moran, R., Herce Castanon, S., Rafiee, B., Mahmoodi, A., Lau, J. Y. F., Latham, P. E., Bahrami, B., & Summerfield, C. (2017) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-017-0117 · Cited by 141 · see citing works
Self-citationConfidence Is the Bridge between Multi-stage Decisions
van den Berg, R., Zylberberg, A., Kiani, R., Shadlen, M. N., & Wolpert, D. M. (2016) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2016.10.021 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Neuronal Correlates of Metacognition in Primate Frontal Cortex
Middlebrooks, P. G., & Sommer, M. A. (2012) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2012.05.028 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
The impact of evidence reliability on sensitivity and bias in decision confidence.
Boldt, A., de Gardelle, V., & Yeung, N. (2017) · Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance · doi:10.1037/xhp0000404 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Purcell, B. A., & Kiani, R. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1524685113 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions
Zylberberg, A., Roelfsema, P. R., & Sigman, M. (2014) · Consciousness and Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.concog.2014.05.012 · Cited by 97 · see citing works
Frontal eye field neurons signal changes in decision criteria
Ferrera, V. P., Yanike, M., & Cassanello, C. R. (2009) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/nn.2434 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Metacognitive ability correlates with hippocampal and prefrontal microstructure
Allen, M., Glen, J. C., Müllensiefen, D., Schwarzkopf, D. S., Fardo, F., Frank, D., Callaghan, M. F., & Rees, G. (2017) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2017.02.008 · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Superior colliculus neuronal ensemble activity signals optimal rather than subjective confidence
Odegaard, B., Grimaldi, P., Cho, S. H., Peters, M. A. K., Lau, H. C., & Basso, M. A. (2018) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1711628115 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Glover (2000) · doi:10.1002/1522-2594(200007)44:1
Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability
BRIER, G. W. (1950) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078%3c0001:vofeit%3e2.0.co;2 · cited 2×
“We used an incentive-compatible scoring rule (19) under which it was in subjects’ best interest”
Method
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- Vandekerckhove J, Tuerlinckx F (2008) Diffusion model analysis with MATLAB: A DMAT primer. Behav Res Methods 40(1):61-72.
- Josephs O, Howseman AM, Friston KJ, Turner R (1997) Physiological noise modelling for multi- slice EPI fMRI SPM. Proceedings of the 5th Annual Meeting of ISMRM (Vancouver, Canada), p 1682.
- Grinband J, Wager TD, Lindquist M, Ferrera VP, Hirsch J (2008) Detection of time-varying signals in event-related fMRI designs. Neuroimage 43(3):509-520.
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Metacognition and Confidence: A Review and Synthesis
Fleming, S. M. (2024) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev-psych-022423-032425 · Cited by 256 · see citing works
“Indeed, understanding the interrelationships between different stages of metacognitive computation is only just beginning to be investigated (Geurts et al., 2022, Shekhar & Rahnev, 2018, Bang & Fleming, 2018), but represents a major goal for the field (Rahnev et al., 2022).”
InfluentialSelf-citationMedial and orbital frontal cortex in decision-making and flexible behavior
Klein-Flügge, M. C., Bongioanni, A., & Rushworth, M. F. S. (2022) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2022.05.022 · Cited by 244 · see citing works
Vaccaro, A. G., & Fleming, S. M. (2018) · Brain and Neuroscience Advances · doi:10.1177/2398212818810591 · Cited by 218 · see citing works
Self-citationHuman Metacognition Across Domains: Insights from Individual Differences and Neuroimaging
Rouault, M., McWilliams, A., Allen, M. G., & Fleming, S. M. (2018) · Personality Neuroscience · doi:10.1017/pen.2018.16 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Self-citationForming global estimates of self-performance from local confidence
Rouault, M., Dayan, P., & Fleming, S. M. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09075-3 · Cited by 134 · see citing works
Self-citationSub-second Dopamine and Serotonin Signaling in Human Striatum during Perceptual Decision-Making
Bang, D., Kishida, K. T., Lohrenz, T. M., White, J. P., Laxton, A. W., Tatter, S. B., Fleming, S. M., & Montague, P. R. (2020) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2020.09.015 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Self-citationSources of Metacognitive Inefficiency
Shekhar, M., & Rahnev, D. (2020) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2020.10.007 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
Confidence modulates exploration and exploitation in value-based learning
Boldt, A., Blundell, C., & Martino, B. D. (2019) · Neuroscience of Consciousness · doi:10.1093/nc/niz004 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Behavior- and Modality-General Representation of Confidence in Orbitofrontal Cortex
Masset, P., Ott, T., Lak, A., Hirokawa, J., & Kepecs, A. (2020) · Cell · doi:10.1016/j.cell.2020.05.022 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Perceptual reality monitoring: Neural mechanisms dissociating imagination from reality
Dijkstra, N., Kok, P., & Fleming, S. M. (2022) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2022.104557 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Self-citationHuman VMPFC encodes early signatures of confidence in perceptual decisions
Gherman, S., & Philiastides, M. G. (2018) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.38293 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
The mnemonic basis of subjective experience
Lau, H. C., Michel, M., LeDoux, J. E., & Fleming, S. M. (2022) · Nature Reviews Psychology · doi:10.1038/s44159-022-00068-6 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Self-citationCuriosity as a Metacognitive Feeling
Goupil, L., & Proust, J. (2023) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2022.105325 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
Frömer, R., Wolf, C. K. D., & Shenhav, A. (2019) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12931-x · Cited by 85 · see citing works
Joint representation of working memory and uncertainty in human cortex
Li, H.-H., Sprague, T. C., Yoo, A. H., Ma, W. J., & Curtis, C. E. (2021) · Neuron · doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2021.08.022 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Unpacking the complexities of consciousness: Theories and reflections
Mudrik, L., Boly, M., Dehaene, S., Fleming, S. M., Lamme, V., Seth, A., & Melloni, L. (2025) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2025.106053 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Self-citationDisentangling the origins of confidence in speeded perceptual judgments through multimodal imaging
Pereira, M., Faivre, N., Iturrate, I., Wirthlin, M., Serafini, L., Martin, S., Desvachez, A., Blanke, O., Van De Ville, D., & Millán, J. D. R. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1918335117 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
Formation of global self-beliefs in the human brain
Rouault, M., & Fleming, S. M. (2020) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2003094117 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Self-citationFetsch, C. R., Odean, N. N., Jeurissen, D., El-Shamayleh, Y., Horwitz, G. D., & Shadlen, M. N. (2018) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.36523 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Distinct neural contributions to metacognition for detecting, but not discriminating visual stimuli
Mazor, M., Friston, K. J., & Fleming, S. M. (2020) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.53900 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Self-citationLarge-scale dynamics of perceptual decision information across human cortex
Wilming, N., Murphy, P. R., Meyniel, F., & Donner, T. H. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18826-6 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Mentalizing during social InterAction: A four component model
Wu, H., Liu, X., Hagan, C. C., & Mobbs, D. (2020) · Cortex · doi:10.1016/j.cortex.2019.12.031 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
The future of metacognition research: Balancing construct breadth with measurement rigor
Katyal, S., & Fleming, S. M. (2024) · Cortex · doi:10.1016/j.cortex.2023.11.002 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Self-citationVisual metacognition: Measures, models, and neural correlates.
Rahnev, D. (2021) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/amp0000937 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
Benwell, C., Mohr, G., Wallberg, J., Kouadio, A., & Ince, R. A. A. (2022) · npj Mental Health Research · doi:10.1038/s44184-022-00009-4 · Cited by 59 · see citing works
Studying the neural representations of uncertainty
Walker, E. Y., Pohl, S., Denison, R. N., Barack, D. L., Lee, J., Block, N., Ma, W. J., & Meyniel, F. (2023) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41593-023-01444-y · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Obsessive Compulsive Disorder: A Pathology of Self-Confidence?
Kiverstein, J. D., Rietveld, E., Slagter, H. A., & Denys, D. A. J. P. (2019) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2019.02.005 · Cited by 53 · see citing works
Brain dynamics for confidence-weighted learning
Meyniel, F. (2020) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007935 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Unconscious reinforcement learning of hidden brain states supported by confidence
Cortese, A., Lau, H. C., & Kawato, M. (2020) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-020-17828-8 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Ghetti, S., & Fandakova, Y. (2020) · Annual Review of Developmental Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev-devpsych-060320-085634 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Subjective value then confidence in human ventromedial prefrontal cortex
Shapiro, A. D., & Grafton, S. T. (2020) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0225617 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Shekhar, M., & Rahnev, D. (2023) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/xge0001524 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Calibrating the experimental measurement of psychological attributes
Bach, D. R., Melinščak, F., Fleming, S. M., & Voelkle, M. C. (2020) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-020-00976-8 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Self-citationNeural Substrates of the Drift-Diffusion Model in Brain Disorders
Gupta, A., Bansal, R., Alashwal, H., Kaçar, A. Ş., Balcı, F., & Moustafa, A. A. (2022) · Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fncom.2021.678232 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Rausch, M., Zehetleitner, M., Steinhauser, M., & Maier, M. E. (2020) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2020.116963 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Maniscalco, B., Odegaard, B., Grimaldi, P., Cho, S. H., Basso, M. A., Lau, H., & Peters, M. A. K. (2021) · PLOS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008779 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
A shared brain system forming confidence judgment across cognitive domains
Rouault, M., Lebreton, M. P., & Pessiglione, M. (2022) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhac146 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Social learning across adolescence: A Bayesian neurocognitive perspective
Hofmans, L., & van den Bos, W. (2022) · Developmental Cognitive Neuroscience · doi:10.1016/j.dcn.2022.101151 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Simultaneous modeling of choice, confidence, and response time in visual perception.
Hellmann, S., Zehetleitner, M., & Rausch, M. (2023) · Psychological Review · doi:10.1037/rev0000411 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Private–public mappings in human prefrontal cortex
Bang, D., Ershadmanesh, S., Nili, H., & Fleming, S. M. (2020) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.56477 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Self-citationPartially Overlapping Neural Correlates of Metacognitive Monitoring and Metacognitive Control
Boldt, A., & Gilbert, S. J. (2022) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.1326-21.2022 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Neurocomputational mechanisms of confidence in self and others
Bang, D., Moran, R., Daw, N. D., & Fleming, S. M. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-31674-w · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Self-citationSequential sampling from memory underlies action selection during abstract decision-making
Shushruth, S., Zylberberg, A., & Shadlen, M. N. (2022) · Current Biology · doi:10.1016/j.cub.2022.03.014 · Cited by 38 · see citing works
The prefrontal cortex and (uniquely) human cooperation: a comparative perspective
Zoh, Y., Chang, S. W. C., & Crockett, M. J. (2021) · Neuropsychopharmacology · doi:10.1038/s41386-021-01092-5 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Distinct neurocomputational mechanisms support informational and socially normative conformity
Mahmoodi, A., Nili, H., Bang, D., Mehring, C., & Bahrami, B. (2022) · PLoS Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3001565 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Self-citationConfidence is predicted by pre- and post-choice decision signal dynamics
Grogan, J. P., Rys, W., Kelly, S. P., & O’Connell, R. G. (2023) · Imaging Neuroscience · doi:10.1162/imag_a_00005 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Metacognitive resources for adaptive learning⋆
Cortese, A. (2021) · Neuroscience Research · doi:10.1016/j.neures.2021.09.003 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
The folded X-pattern is not necessarily a statistical signature of decision confidence
Rausch, M., & Zehetleitner, M. (2019) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007456 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Yeon, J., Shekhar, M., & Rahnev, D. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-77820-6 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Jiang, S., Wang, S., & Wan, X. (2022) · PLOS Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3001301 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Response-Related Signals Increase Confidence But Not Metacognitive Performance
Filevich, E., Koß, C., & Faivre, N. (2020) · eNeuro · doi:10.1523/eneuro.0326-19.2020 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Dual strategies in human confidence judgments
Bertana, A., Четвериков, А. А., van Bergen, R. S., Ling, S., & Jehee, J. F. M. (2021) · Journal of Vision · doi:10.1167/jov.21.5.21 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Expectations about precision bias metacognition and awareness.
Olawole‐Scott, H., & Yon, D. (2023) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/xge0001371 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Neural and Behavioral Correlates of Impaired Insight and Self-awareness in Substance Use Disorder
Maracic, C. E., & Moeller, S. J. (2021) · Current Behavioral Neuroscience Reports · doi:10.1007/s40473-021-00240-x · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Discrete confidence levels revealed by sequential decisions
Lisi, M., Mongillo, G., Milne, G. A., Dekker, T. M., & Goréa, A. (2020) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-020-00953-1 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Waving goodbye to contrast: self-generated hand movements attenuate visual sensitivity
Vasser, M., Vuillaume, L., Axel Cleeremans, B., & Aru, J. (2019) · Neuroscience of Consciousness · doi:10.1093/nc/niy013 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Metacognition and confidence: A review and synthesisPreprint
Fleming, S. M. (2023) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/ge7tz · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Self-citationInvestigation of an emotion perception test using functional magnetic resonance imaging
Bae, S., Kang, K. D., Kim, S. W., Shin, Y., Nam, J. J., & Han, D. H. (2019) · Computer Methods and Programs in Biomedicine · doi:10.1016/j.cmpb.2019.104994 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Wu, H., Fung, B. J., & Mobbs, D. (2022) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2021.791835 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Perceptual decision confidence is sensitive to forgone physical effort expenditure
Turner, W., Angdias, R., Feuerriegel, D., Chong, T. T. ‐., Hester, R., & Bode, S. (2020) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2020.104525 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Kim, H. (2020) · Frontiers in Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnins.2020.00281 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Perceiving animacy purely from visual motion cues involves intraparietal sulcus
Schultz, J., & Bülthoff, H. (2019) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2019.04.058 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Kozuch, B. (2021) · Mind & Language · doi:10.1111/mila.12363 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Feuerriegel, D., Murphy, M., Konski, A., Mepani, V., Sun, J., Hester, R., & Bode, S. (2022) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2022.119447 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Neural activity tracking identity and confidence in social information
Trudel, N., Lockwood, P. L., Rushworth, M. F. S., & Wittmann, M. K. (2023) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.71315 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Judgments of agency are affected by sensory noise without recruiting metacognitive processing
Constant, M., Salomon, R., & Filevich, E. (2022) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.72356 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Neural and computational underpinnings of biased confidence in human reinforcement learning
Ting, C.-C., Salem-Garcia, N., Palminteri, S., Engelmann, J. B., & Lebreton, M. P. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-023-42589-5 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Decision-making in brains and robots — the case for an interdisciplinary approach
Lee, S. W., & Seymour, B. (2019) · Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.cobeha.2018.12.012 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Dissociating the Neural Correlates of Subjective Visibility from Those of Decision Confidence
Mazor, M., Dijkstra, N., & Fleming, S. M. (2022) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.1220-21.2022 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationThomas, A. K., Wulff, A. N., Landinez, D., & Bulevich, J. B. (2022) · Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Cognitive Science · doi:10.1002/wcs.1618 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Explaining distortions in metacognition with an attractor network model of decision uncertainty
Atiya, N. A. A., Huys, Q. J. M., Dolan, R. J., & Fleming, S. M. (2021) · PLoS Computational Biology · doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009201 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Self-citationGeneral mechanisms of task engagement in the primate frontal cortex
Grohn, J., Khalighinejad, N., Jahn, C. I., Bongioanni, A., Schüffelgen, U., Sallet, J., Rushworth, M. F. S., & Kolling, N. (2024) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-024-49128-w · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Effects of ketamine on brain function during metacognition of episodic memory
Lehmann, M., Neumann, C., Wasserthal, S., Schultz, J., Delis, A., Trautner, P., Hurlemann, R., & Ettinger, U. (2021) · Neuroscience of Consciousness · doi:10.1093/nc/niaa028 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Contributions of the Basal Ganglia to Visual Perceptual Decisions
Ding, L. (2023) · Annual Review of Vision Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-vision-111022-123804 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Towards a computational psychiatry of juvenile obsessive-compulsive disorder
Loosen, A. M., & Hauser, T. U. (2020) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2020.07.021 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Metacognitive Computations for Information Search: Confidence in ControlPreprint
Schulz, L., Fleming, S. M., & Dayan, P. (2021) · bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) · doi:10.1101/2021.03.01.433342 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Self-citationDistinct signatures of subjective confidence and objective accuracy in speech prosody
Goupil, L., & Aucouturier, J. (2021) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2021.104661 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Neural basis of concurrent deliberation toward a choice and confidence judgment
Vivar-Lazo, M., & Fetsch, C. R. (2025) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41593-025-02116-9 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Cohanpour, M., Aly, M., & Gottlieb, J. P. (2024) · Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.0974-23.2024 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Robust valence-induced biases on motor response and confidence in human reinforcement learning
Ting, C.-C., Palminteri, S., Engelmann, J., & Lebreton, M. (2020) · Cognitive, Affective, & Behavioral Neuroscience · doi:10.3758/s13415-020-00826-0 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Motivational signals disrupt metacognitive signals in the human ventromedial prefrontal cortex
Hoven, M., Brunner, G., de Boer, N. S., Goudriaan, A. E., Denys, D. A. J. P., van Holst, R. J., Luigjes, J., & Lebreton, M. P. (2022) · Communications Biology · doi:10.1038/s42003-022-03197-z · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Hoven, M., de Boer, N. S., Goudriaan, A. E., Denys, D. A. J. P., Lebreton, M. P., van Holst, R. J., & Luigjes, J. (2022) · Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences · doi:10.1111/pcn.13434 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Wang, B., & Pleger, B. (2020) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhaa073 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Fandakova, Y., Johnson, E. G., & Ghetti, S. (2021) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.62520 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Extinction and discrimination in a Bayesian model of context fear conditioning ( BaconX )
Krasne, F. B., Zinn, R., Vissel, B., & Fanselow, M. S. (2021) · Hippocampus · doi:10.1002/hipo.23298 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Confidence and the description–experience distinction
Lejarraga, T., & Lejarraga, J. (2020) · Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes · doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2020.07.003 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Case Report: Acute Onset Fear of Falling and Treatment With “Cognitive Physical Therapy”
Castro, P., Vadera, S., Bancroft, M. J., Buttell, J., & Kaski, D. N. (2021) · Frontiers in Neurology · doi:10.3389/fneur.2021.707840 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Neural correlates of effort-based behavioral inconsistency
Bernácer, J., Martínez-Valbuena, I., Martı́nez, M., Pujol, N., Luís, E. O., Ramírez-Castillo, D., & Pastor, M. A. (2018) · Cortex · doi:10.1016/j.cortex.2018.12.005 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
History biases reveal novel dissociations between perceptual and metacognitive decision-making
Benwell, C., Beyer, R., Wallington, F., & Ince, R. A. A. (2023) · Journal of Vision · doi:10.1167/jov.23.5.14 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
EEG-Based Human Decision Confidence Measurement Using Graph Neural Networks
Liu, L.-D., Li, R., Liu, Y., Li, H., & Lu, B. (2021) · Communications in computer and information science · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-92310-5_34 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Explaining Integration of Evidence Separated by Temporal Gaps with Frontoparietal Circuit Models
Azizi, Z. R., & Ebrahimpour, R. (2022) · Neuroscience · doi:10.1016/j.neuroscience.2022.10.019 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
ADHD Children Identification With Multiview Feature Fusion of fNIRS Signals
Gu, Y., Miao, S., Yang, J., & Xiaoli Li, A. (2022) · IEEE Sensors Journal · doi:10.1109/jsen.2022.3168488 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Fear Priming: A Method for Examining Postural Strategies Associated With Fear of Falling
Stamenkovic, A., van der Veen, S. M., & Thomas, J. S. (2020) · Frontiers in Aging Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnagi.2020.00241 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Discrimination of Decision Confidence Levels from EEG Signals
Li, R., Liu, L.-D., & Lu, B. (2021) · International IEEE/EMBS Conference on Neural Engineering · doi:10.1109/ner49283.2021.9441086 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Lund, A. E., Corrêa, C. M. C., Fardo, F., Fleming, S. M., & Allen, M. (2023) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/p97s5 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationValeriani, D., O’Flynn, L. C., Worthley, A., Sichani, A. H., & Simonyan, K. (2022) · Journal of Neural Engineering · doi:10.1088/1741-2552/ac96a5 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Frontopolar Cortex Interacts With Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex to Causally Guide Metacognition
Kapetaniou, G. E., Moisa, M., Ruff, C. C., Tobler, P. N., & Soutschek, A. (2025) · Human Brain Mapping · doi:10.1002/hbm.70146 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Gorka, A. X., Philips, R. T., Torrisi, S., Claudino, L., Foray, K., Grillon, C., & Monique Ernst, D. (2022) · Biological Psychiatry Cognitive Neuroscience and Neuroimaging · doi:10.1016/j.bpsc.2022.03.010 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Learning whom to cooperate with: neurocomputational mechanisms for choosing cooperative partners
Jin, T., Zhang, S., Lockwood, P. L., Vilares, I., Wu, H., Liu, C., & Ma, Y. (2022) · Cerebral Cortex · doi:10.1093/cercor/bhac365 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Domain-specific updating of metacognitive self-beliefs
Hoogervorst, K., Banellis, L., & Allen, M. (2024) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2024.105965 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
- Authors
- Bang, D., & Fleming, S. M.
- Affiliations
- Wellcome Centre for Human Neuroimaging (GB)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2018-05-21
- Volume
- 115
- Issue
- 23
- Pages
- 6082-6087
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC6003322
- OpenAlex
- W2803340568
- Cited by
- 207
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 24 · 2024: 22 · 2023: 25 · 2022: 32 · 2021: 27 · 2020: 36 · 2019: 15 · 2018: 9
- FWCI
- 12.95
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (acceptedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Max Planck Digital Library (submittedVersion)
- MPG.PuRe (Max Planck Society) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Wellcome (203147/Z/16/Z)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Visual perception and processing mechanisms
- Keywords
- decision confidence, medial prefrontal cortex, pregenual anterior cingulate cortex, perceptual decision making, expected performance, posterior parietal cortex, ventral striatum, pre-supplementary motor area, confidence estimation, prefrontal lesions
- MeSH terms
- Adult, Brain, Brain Mapping, Choice Behavior, Decision Making, Female, Gyrus Cinguli, Humans, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Reproducibility of Results, Prefrontal Cortex
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
