Rates of hippocampal atrophy correlate with change in clinical status in aging and AD
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: The cognitive continuum in the elderly population can be conceptually divided into those who are functioning normally (control subjects), those with a mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and those with probable AD. OBJECTIVES: To test the hypothesis that the annualized rates of hippocampal atrophy differ as a function of both baseline and change in clinical group membership (control, MCI, or AD). METHODS: The authors identified 129 subjects from the Mayo Clinic AD Research Center/AD Patient Registry who met established criteria for normal control subjects, MCI, or probable AD, both at entry and at the time of a subsequent clinical follow-up evaluation 3 +/- 1 years later. Each subject underwent an MRI examination of the head at the time of the initial assessment and at follow-up clinical assessment; the annualized percentage change in hippocampal volume was computed. Subjects who were classified as controls or patients with MCI at baseline could either remain cognitively stable or could decline to a lower functioning group over the period of observation. RESULTS: The annualized rates of hippocampal volume loss for each of the three initial clinical groups decreased progressively in the following order: AD > MC > control. Within the control and MCI groups, those who declined had a significantly greater rate of volume loss than those who remained clinically stable. The mean annualized rates of hippocampal atrophy by follow-up clinical group were: control-stable 1.73%, control-decliner 2.81%, MCI-stable 2.55%, MCI-decliner 3.69%, AD 3. 5%. CONCLUSION: Rates of hippocampal atrophy match both baseline cognitive status and the change in cognitive status over time in elderly persons who lie along the cognitive continuum from normal to MCI to AD.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
In 129 Mayo ADPR/ADRC subjects with baseline and 3 ± 1 year follow-up, annualized hippocampal atrophy rates increased across control, MCI, and AD groups and were greater in clinical decliners than in stable subjects within the control and MCI groups. The results support the hypothesis that rates of hippocampal atrophy match both baseline cognitive status and change in cognitive status over time.
Key findings
- Annualized hippocampal volume loss by initial clinical group was control −1.9 ± 1.1%, MCI −3.0 ± 1.6%, and AD −3.5 ± 1.8%; control vs MCI and control vs AD differences were significant at p < 0.001.
- By follow-up clinical group, mean annualized rates were control-stable −1.7 ± 0.9%, control-decliner −2.8 ± 1.7%, MCI-stable −2.5 ± 1.5%, MCI-decliner −3.7 ± 1.5%, and AD −3.5 ± 1.8%; control-stable vs control-decliner p = 0.03 and MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner p = 0.03.
- Baseline hippocampal volume decreased progressively from control to MCI to AD, with all three baseline group differences significant at p < 0.000; median normal percentiles were 41 for control, 11 for MCI, and 2 for AD.
- Over follow-up, 10 of 58 controls (17%) declined to MCI or probable AD, and 18 of 43 MCI subjects (42%) declined to AD.
Methods
- The study identified 129 subjects from the Mayo Clinic AD Research Center/AD Patient Registry who met criteria for normal control, MCI, or probable AD at entry and at a follow-up clinical evaluation 3 ± 1 years later; subjects with symptoms felt unrelated to AD, such as stroke or depression, were excluded.
- Each subject underwent MRI at baseline and follow-up; hippocampal volumes were manually traced, and annualized percentage change was computed as scan 2 volume minus scan 1 volume, divided by scan 1 volume, divided by years between scans, × 100.
- Baseline hippocampal volumes were normalized for head size, age, and sex using W scores from a normal elderly control database; comparisons used two-way ANOVA on ranked data by baseline clinical group and stable/decliner status, followed by rank sum tests.
Limitations
- The paper states that dichotomizing control and MCI subjects into stable vs decliner is crude because cognitive change is continuous, that the rates are a linear fit to only two time points and may not be linear, and that requiring two artifact-free MRI studies 2–4 years apart may exclude rapidly progressive dementia patients and therefore underestimate atrophy in decliner groups.
- The paper notes that the number of control decliners was small (n = 10), that diagnostic utility in predicting future AD will likely be limited by inter-group overlap, and that whether atrophy rate adds predictive power beyond baseline hippocampal volume was not formally addressed.
- Evident from the text: this is an observational, single-center clinical cohort study using clinical diagnostic classifications without pathologic confirmation, and the authors acknowledge that control-decliner is a “misnomer” because such individuals were likely presymptomatic AD at baseline.
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Claims the paper makes
0 of 21 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data§ Results
The annualized rates of hippocampal volume loss for each of the three initial clinical groups decreased progressively in the order AD > MCI > control.
“The annualized rates of hippocampal volume loss for each of the three initial clinical groups decreased progressively in the following order: AD > MC > C.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
Within the control and MCI groups, subjects who declined had a significantly greater rate of hippocampal volume loss than those who remained clinically stable.
“Within the control and MCI groups, those who declined had a significantly greater rate of volume loss than those who remained clinically stable.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
Over the observation period, 10 (17%) of the initial cohort of 58 controls declined to either the MCI or probable AD categories.
“Over the course of the observation period 10 (17%) of the initial cohort of 58 controls declined to either the MCI or probable AD categories.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The difference in annualized rate of hippocampal volume loss between control and MCI groups was significant at p <0.001.
“The differences between the control and MCI groups, and between control and AD groups were significant at p <0.001.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The differences among all three baseline groups were significant at p <0.000.
“The differences among all three baseline groups were significant at p <0.000.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
- Findingown data§ Results
Annualized rates of hippocampal volume loss for the three initial clinical groups decreased progressively in the order AD > MCI > C.
“The annualized rates of hippocampal volume loss for each of the three initial clinical groups decreased progressively in the following order: AD > MCI > C (Table 2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The pairwise between-group comparison of annualized percent change in hippocampal volume between control-stable and MCI-stable was significant at p=0.02.
“The p-values obtained by pair-wise between group comparisons in Table 3 which were significant or nearly so (p<0.10) were: control-stable vs control-decliner, p=0.03; control-stable vs MCI-stable, p=0.02; control-stable vs MCI-decliner, p<0.000; control-stable vs AD, p<0.000; MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner, p=0.03; MCI-stable vs AD, p=0.06.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingcitation§ Results
The MMSE and DRS scores at baseline declined in the order control-stable > control-decliner > MCI-stable > MCI-decliner > AD.
“The MMSE and DRS scores at baseline declined in the following order: control-stable > control-decliner > MCI-stable > MCI-decliner > AD(18).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [18] Folstein MF, Folstein SE, McHugh PR. "Mini Mental State": A practical method for grading the cognitive state of patients for the clinician. Journal of Psychiatric Research. 1975;12:189–198. doi: 10.1016/0022-3956(75)90026-6. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data§ Results
Baseline hippocampal volume in each of the three initial clinical groups decreased progressively in the order control > MCI > AD.
“The baseline hippocampal volume in each of the three initial clinical groups decreased progressively in the following order: control > MCI > AD (Table 4).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The pairwise between-group comparison of annualized percent change in hippocampal volume between MCI-stable and MCI-decliner was significant at p=0.03.
“The p-values obtained by pair-wise between group comparisons in Table 3 which were significant or nearly so (p<0.10) were: control-stable vs control-decliner, p=0.03; control-stable vs MCI-stable, p=0.02; control-stable vs MCI-decliner, p<0.000; control-stable vs AD, p<0.000; MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner, p=0.03; MCI-stable vs AD, p=0.06.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The proportion of individuals with APOE genotypes that elevate the risk for developing AD (ε3/4 or ε4/4) increased in the order control-stable < control-decliner < MCI-stable < MCI-decliner < AD.
“The proportion of individuals with APOE genotypes that elevate the risk for developing AD (∈3/4 or∈4/4) increased in the following order: control-stable < control-decliner < MCI-stable < MCI-decliner < AD.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The pairwise between-group comparison of annualized percent change in hippocampal volume between control-stable and MCI-decliner was significant at p<0.000.
“The p-values obtained by pair-wise between group comparisons in Table 3 which were significant or nearly so (p<0.10) were: control-stable vs control-decliner, p=0.03; control-stable vs MCI-stable, p=0.02; control-stable vs MCI-decliner, p<0.000; control-stable vs AD, p<0.000; MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner, p=0.03; MCI-stable vs AD, p=0.06.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
Eighteen (42%) of the initial cohort of 43 MCI subjects declined to the AD category.
“Eighteen (42%) of the initial cohort of 43 MCIs declined to the AD category.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The pairwise between-group comparison of annualized percent change in hippocampal volume between control-stable and control-decliner was significant at p=0.03.
“The p-values obtained by pair-wise between group comparisons in Table 3 which were significant or nearly so (p<0.10) were: control-stable vs control-decliner, p=0.03; control-stable vs MCI-stable, p=0.02; control-stable vs MCI-decliner, p<0.000; control-stable vs AD, p<0.000; MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner, p=0.03; MCI-stable vs AD, p=0.06.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The pairwise between-group comparison of baseline hippocampal volume between control-stable and control-decliner was significant or nearly so at p=0.09.
“The p values obtained by pairwise between-group comparisons in Table 5 which were significant or nearly so (p<0.10) were: control-stable vs control-decliner, p=0.09; control-stable vs MCI-stable, p=0.01; control-stable vs MCI-decliner, p<0.000; control-stable vs AD, p<0.000; control-decliner vs AD, p=0.01; MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner, p=0.05; MCI-stable vs AD, p<0.000.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The pairwise between-group comparison of annualized percent change in hippocampal volume between control-stable and AD was significant at p<0.000.
“The p-values obtained by pair-wise between group comparisons in Table 3 which were significant or nearly so (p<0.10) were: control-stable vs control-decliner, p=0.03; control-stable vs MCI-stable, p=0.02; control-stable vs MCI-decliner, p<0.000; control-stable vs AD, p<0.000; MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner, p=0.03; MCI-stable vs AD, p=0.06.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The calculated annualized percent change in hippocampal volume was ≤0, indicating volume loss over time, in 128 of the 129 subjects.
“The calculated annualized percent change in hippocampal volume was ≤0, indicating volume loss over time, in 128 of the 129 subjects.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The difference in annualized rate of hippocampal volume loss between control and AD groups was significant at p <0.001.
“The differences between the control and MCI groups, and between control and AD groups were significant at p <0.001.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The pairwise between-group comparison of annualized percent change in hippocampal volume between MCI-stable and AD was significant or nearly so at p=0.06.
“The p-values obtained by pair-wise between group comparisons in Table 3 which were significant or nearly so (p<0.10) were: control-stable vs control-decliner, p=0.03; control-stable vs MCI-stable, p=0.02; control-stable vs MCI-decliner, p<0.000; control-stable vs AD, p<0.000; MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner, p=0.03; MCI-stable vs AD, p=0.06.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The pairwise between-group comparison of baseline hippocampal volume between control-stable and MCI-stable was significant at p=0.01.
“The p values obtained by pairwise between-group comparisons in Table 5 which were significant or nearly so (p<0.10) were: control-stable vs control-decliner, p=0.09; control-stable vs MCI-stable, p=0.01; control-stable vs MCI-decliner, p<0.000; control-stable vs AD, p<0.000; control-decliner vs AD, p=0.01; MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner, p=0.05; MCI-stable vs AD, p<0.000.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The pairwise between-group comparison of baseline hippocampal volume between control-stable and MCI-decliner was significant at p<0.000.
“The p values obtained by pairwise between-group comparisons in Table 5 which were significant or nearly so (p<0.10) were: control-stable vs control-decliner, p=0.09; control-stable vs MCI-stable, p=0.01; control-stable vs MCI-decliner, p<0.000; control-stable vs AD, p<0.000; control-decliner vs AD, p=0.01; MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner, p=0.05; MCI-stable vs AD, p<0.000.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The pairwise between-group comparison of baseline hippocampal volume between MCI-stable and AD was significant at p<0.000.
“The p values obtained by pairwise between-group comparisons in Table 5 which were significant or nearly so (p<0.10) were: control-stable vs control-decliner, p=0.09; control-stable vs MCI-stable, p=0.01; control-stable vs MCI-decliner, p<0.000; control-stable vs AD, p<0.000; control-decliner vs AD, p=0.01; MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner, p=0.05; MCI-stable vs AD, p<0.000.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
The rate of hippocampal atrophy of cognitively stable MCIs was comparable to control decliners.
“The rate of hippocampal atrophy of cognitively stable MCIs was on average significantly greater than that of stable controls and comparable to control decliners.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
MCI patients who declined clinically had greater rates of atrophy than those who did not.
“Those who declined clinically had greater rates of atrophy than those who did not.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The pairwise between-group comparison of baseline hippocampal volume between control-stable and AD was significant at p<0.000.
“The p values obtained by pairwise between-group comparisons in Table 5 which were significant or nearly so (p<0.10) were: control-stable vs control-decliner, p=0.09; control-stable vs MCI-stable, p=0.01; control-stable vs MCI-decliner, p<0.000; control-stable vs AD, p<0.000; control-decliner vs AD, p=0.01; MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner, p=0.05; MCI-stable vs AD, p<0.000.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
The rate of atrophy in MCI decliners was significantly greater than that in stable MCIs.
“However, our data also demonstrate that the rate of atrophy in MCI decliners was significantly greater than that in stable MCIs and in this respect support the notion that some patients who meet the criteria for MCI may remain relatively stable.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The pairwise between-group comparison of baseline hippocampal volume between control-decliner and AD was significant at p=0.01.
“The p values obtained by pairwise between-group comparisons in Table 5 which were significant or nearly so (p<0.10) were: control-stable vs control-decliner, p=0.09; control-stable vs MCI-stable, p=0.01; control-stable vs MCI-decliner, p<0.000; control-stable vs AD, p<0.000; control-decliner vs AD, p=0.01; MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner, p=0.05; MCI-stable vs AD, p<0.000.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
The rate of hippocampal atrophy of cognitively stable MCIs was on average significantly greater than that of stable controls.
“The rate of hippocampal atrophy of cognitively stable MCIs was on average significantly greater than that of stable controls and comparable to control decliners.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Results
The pairwise between-group comparison of baseline hippocampal volume between MCI-stable and MCI-decliner was significant at p=0.05.
“The p values obtained by pairwise between-group comparisons in Table 5 which were significant or nearly so (p<0.10) were: control-stable vs control-decliner, p=0.09; control-stable vs MCI-stable, p=0.01; control-stable vs MCI-decliner, p<0.000; control-stable vs AD, p<0.000; control-decliner vs AD, p=0.01; MCI-stable vs MCI-decliner, p=0.05; MCI-stable vs AD, p<0.000.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
The rates of hippocampal atrophy in MCI patients are heterogeneous.
“Our data indicate that the rates of hippocampal atrophy in MCI patients are heterogeneous.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
The rate calculated in this study for stable controls was −1.73%/year.
“The rate which we calculated in this study for stable controls (−1.73%/year) is very close to the −1.55%/year which we calculated in a previous study (6), and is comparable to that described for older controls (−2.09%) by another group (25).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
The stable control rate is very close to the −1.55%/year calculated in a previous study (6).
“The rate which we calculated in this study for stable controls (−1.73%/year) is very close to the −1.55%/year which we calculated in a previous study (6), and is comparable to that described for older controls (−2.09%) by another group (25).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [6] Jack CR, Jr, Petersen RC, Xu Y, et al. The rate of medial temporal lobe atrophy in typical aging and Alzheimer's disease. Neurology. 1998;51:993–999. doi: 10.1212/wnl.51.4.993. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingcitation§ Discussion
The stable control rate is comparable to the −2.09% described for older controls by another group (25).
“The rate which we calculated in this study for stable controls (−1.73%/year) is very close to the −1.55%/year which we calculated in a previous study (6), and is comparable to that described for older controls (−2.09%) by another group (25).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [25] Kaye JA, Swihart T, Howieson D, Dame A. Volume loss of the hippocampus and temporal lobe in healthy elderly persons destined to develop dementia. Neurology. 1997;48:1297–1304. doi: 10.1212/wnl.48.5.1297. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingcitation§ Discussion
None of the subjects, patients or controls, were excluded by the presence of vascular risk factors such as hypertension, cardiovascular disease, or diabetes (26).
“While subjects were excluded from our study if they had experienced a stroke either before or during the observation period, none of the subjects, patients or controls, were excluded by the presence of vascular risk factors such as hypertension, cardiovascular disease, or diabetes (26).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [26] DeCarli C, Murphy DGM, Tranh M, et al. The effect of white matter hyperintensity volume on brain structure, cognitive performance, and cerebral metabolism of glucose in 51 healthy adults. Neurology. 1995;45:2077–2084. doi: 10.1212/wnl.45.11.2077. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data§ Discussion
In the current study, measurements in 128 out of 129 patients met the criteria that measured change in hippocampal volume should be ≤0.
“In the current study, measurements in 128 out of 129 patients met this criteria.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
In the current study, baseline hippocampal volumes of MCI decliners were significantly more atrophic than those of stable MCIs.
“In the current study as well, baseline hippocampal volumes of MCI decliners were significantly more atrophic than those of stable MCIs.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
A trend was present indicating that baseline hippocampal volumes were more atrophic in control-decliners than in stable controls (p = 0.09).
“A trend was present indicating that baseline hippocampal volumes were more atrophic in control-decliners than in stable controls (p = 0.09).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data§ Discussion
The data presented demonstrate a correlation between the rate of change in hippocampal volume and change in cognitive status.
“The data presented demonstrate a correlation between the rate of change in hippocampal volume and change in cognitive status.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ Conclusion
The authors have previously determined age- and gender-specific normal percentiles for normalized hippocampal volume in a group of 126 cognitively normal elderly controls.
“We have previously determined age and gender specific normal percentiles for normalized hippocampal volume in a group of 126 cognitively normal elderly controls (17).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [17] Jack CR, Jr, Petersen RC, Xu YC, et al. Medial temporal atrophy on MRI in normal aging and very mild Alzheimer's disease. Neurology. 1997;49:786–794. doi: 10.1212/wnl.49.3.786. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Premisecitation§ Conclusion
The medial temporal lobe is the first area of the brain involved by the neurofibrillary pathology of Alzheimer's disease.
“as this region is the first area of the brain involved by the neurofibrillary pathology of AD(4, 5).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [4] Braak H, Braak E. Neuropathological staging of Alzheimer-related changes. Acta Neuropathol. 1991;82:239–259. doi: 10.1007/BF00308809. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [5] Arnold SE, Hyman BT, Flory J, Damasio AR, et al. The topographical and neuroanatomical distribution of neurofibrillary tangles and neuritic plaques in the cerebral cortex of patients with Alzheimer's disease. Cerebral Cortex. 1991;1:103–116. doi: 10.1093/cercor/1.1.103. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Study design and conductcitation§ Conclusion
Baseline hippocampal volume measurements were normalized for interindividual variation in head size, age, and gender.
“In order to compare the baseline hippocampal volume (i.e., hippocampal volume at the time of the initial MR scan) among groups, the hippocampal volume measurements were normalized for interindividual variation in head size, age, and gender (16).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [16] Jack CR, Jr, Twomey CK, Zinsmeister AR, et al. Anterior temporal lobes and hippocampal formations: normative volumetric measurements for MR images in young adults. Radiology. 1989;172:549–554. doi: 10.1148/radiology.172.2.2748838. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationown data§ Discussion
Some patients who meet the criteria for MCI may remain relatively stable.
“However, our data also demonstrate that the rate of atrophy in MCI decliners was significantly greater than that in stable MCIs and in this respect support the notion that some patients who meet the criteria for MCI may remain relatively stable.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning§ Discussion
The requirement that subjects have two relatively artifact free MRI studies separated by 2-4 years would exclude patients who were unable to co-operate for a followup MRI due to rapidly progressive dementia.
“To be included in the analysis, subjects had to have two relatively artifact free MRI studies separated by 2–4 years. This requirement would exclude patients who were unable to co-operate for a followup MRI due to rapidly progressive dementia.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning§ Discussion
The reported rates of atrophy in the decliner groups may be underestimated because the largest volume loss over time should occur in patients who were the most rapid clinical decliners.
“The reported rates of atrophy in the decliner groups may therefore be underestimated, because the largest volume loss over time should occur in patients who were the most rapid clinical decliners.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The largest volume loss over time should occur in patients who were the most rapid clinical decliners.
- Interpretationown data§ Discussion
This indicates the clinical heterogeneity of disease progression within the AD group.
“This indicates the clinical heterogeneity of disease progression within this group.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning§ Discussion
The rate of hippocampal atrophy calculated for the group of stable controls should be representative of cognitively stable elderly individuals in the general population.
“The rate of hippocampal atrophy calculated for our group of stable controls should be representative of cognitively stable elderly individuals in the general population.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ Discussion
We have previously shown that baseline hippocampal volume can provide predictive information about which MCIs will decline to AD vs which will remain stable (29).
“We have previously shown however, that baseline hippocampal volume can provide predictive information about which MCIs will decline to AD vs which will remain stable (29).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [29] Jack CR, Jr, Petersen RC, Xu Y, et al. Prediction of AD with MRI-based hippocampal volume in mild cognitive impairment. Neurology. 1999;52:1397–1403. doi: 10.1212/wnl.52.7.1397. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- Interpretationreasoning§ Discussion
The prevalence of vascular risk factors in the subjects should be present roughly in the same proportion as in the general elderly population.
“The prevalence of these conditions therefore should be present in our subjects roughly in the same proportion as in the general elderly population.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given§ Discussion
Diagnostic utility in predicting future development of AD in individuals will likely be limited by inter-group overlap.
“This remains to be determined however, and diagnostic utility in predicting future development of AD in individuals will likely be limited by inter-group overlap.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Premisecitation§ Discussion
In a prior study of serial hippocampal volume measurements in normal young adults we demonstrated a median coefficient of variation of 0.28% (0.02% - 0.70%) (6).
“In a prior study of serial hippocampal volume measurements in normal young adults we demonstrated a median coefficient of variation of 0.28% (0.02% – 0.70%) (6).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [6] Jack CR, Jr, Petersen RC, Xu Y, et al. The rate of medial temporal lobe atrophy in typical aging and Alzheimer's disease. Neurology. 1998;51:993–999. doi: 10.1212/wnl.51.4.993. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- May combine two claims. 10
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 24
May combine two claims.
Findingown data§ ResultsThe mean annualized rates of hippocampal atrophy by followup clinical group were control-stable 1.73%, control-decliner 2.81%, MCI-stable 2.55%, MCI-decliner 3.69%, and AD 3.5%.
“The mean annualized rates of hippocampal atrophy by followup clinical group were: control-stable 1.73%, control-decliner 2.81%, MCI-stable 2.55%, MCI-decliner 3.69 %, AD 3.5%.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown data§ ResultsA positive volume change over time of +0.1% was measured in one of the stable AD patients.
“A positive volume change over time of +0.1% was measured in one of the stable AD patients.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingcitation§ DiscussionThis rate was also within the range described in another study (27) using MRI volumetrics, but less than described by a different group (28) who measured the change in thickness of the medial temporal lobe on CT.
“This rate was also within the range described in another study (27) using MRI volumetrics, but less than described by a different group (28) who measured the change in thickness of the medial temporal lobe on CT.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [27] Fox NC, Warrington EK, Freeborough PA, et al. Presymptomatic hippocampal atrophy in Alzheimer's disease. A longitudinal MRI study. Brain. 1996;119:2001–2007. doi: 10.1093/brain/119.6.2001. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [28] Jobst KA, Smith AD, Szatmari M, et al. Rapidly progressing atrophy of medial temporal lobe in Alzheimer's disease. Lancet. 1994;343:829–830. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(94)92028-1. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Findingown data§ DiscussionOver the course of longitudinal clinical observation, 17 members of the AD group declined to a lower functioning level as defined by an increase in CDR score, and the remaining 11 retained their baseline CDR score.
“Over the course of longitudinal clinical observation 17 members of the AD group declined to a lower functioning level as defined by an increase in CDR score, and the remaining 11 retained their baseline CDR score.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingcitation§ DiscussionThis prior rate is close to the rate of 3.5%/yr observed in the current study.
“This is close to the rate of 3.5%/yr observed in the current study.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown data§ DiscussionA positive change over time, an increase in volume of 0.1%, was measured in one of the patients.
“A positive change over time, an increase in volume of 0.1%, was measured in one of the patients.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown data§ ConclusionRates of hippocampal atrophy match both baseline cognitive status and the change in cognitive status over time in elderly persons who lie along the cognitive continuum from normal to MCI to AD.
“Rates of hippocampal atrophy match both baseline cognitive status and the change in cognitive status over time in elderly persons who lie along the cognitive continuum from normal to MCI to AD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The transition from normal cognition to Alzheimer's disease is gradual.
- Rests on an assumption: Patients who develop clinically evident Alzheimer's disease pass through a transitional period during which they experience declining cognitive abilities relative to age mates.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Premisecitation§ ConclusionThe intermediate state between normal cognition and Alzheimer's disease has been termed mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and clinical criteria for this diagnosis have been suggested.
“This intermediate state has been termed mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and clinical criteria for this diagnosis have been suggested(1–3).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [1] Petersen RC, Smith GE, Waring SC, Ivnik RJ, Tangalos EG, Kokmen E. Mild cognitive impairment clinical characterization and outcome. Arch Neurol. 1999;56:303–308. doi: 10.1001/archneur.56.3.303. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [2] Smith GE, Petersen RC, Parisi JE, et al. Definition, Course, and Outcome of Mild Cognitive Impairment. Aging, Neuropsychology, and Cognition. 1996;3:141–147. [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [3] Flicker C, Ferris SH, Reisberg B. Mild cognitive impairment in the elderly: predictors of dementia. Neurology. 1991;41:1006–1009. doi: 10.1212/wnl.41.7.1006. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoning§ ConclusionRestricting the analysis to individuals with 3±1 years of followup duration minimized statistical difficulties that would otherwise arise from comparing patients with different followup intervals.
“By restricting the analysis in this study to those individuals with 3± 1 years of followup duration, we were able to minimize the statistical difficulties that otherwise would have been associated with comparing patients with different followup intervals.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoning§ ConclusionThe rate of hippocampal volume change was calculated over the same period of observation covered by the two clinical assessment points, temporally coupling change or absence of change in cognitive status with change in hippocampal volume.
“In addition, the rate of hippocampal volume change was calculated over the same period of observation covered by the two clinical assessment points, which temporally coupled change or absence of change in cognitive status with change in hippocampal volume.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone given§ ConclusionThe date of each MRI scan was masked in the digital image file so that hippocampal measurements were done without knowledge of the chronologic ordering of the scans in each pair.
“The date of each MRI scan was also masked in the digital image file so that the hippocampal measurements were done without knowledge of the chronologic ordering of the scans in each pair.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoning§ ConclusionWhen the W-score method is applied to the normal elderly control database, the resulting W scores precisely follow a standard normal distribution.
“When this method of assigning W scores is applied to the normal elderly control database, the resulting W scores precisely follow a standard normal distribution.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone given§ ConclusionAll image processing steps in every patient were performed by the same research associate, who was blinded to all clinical information including age, gender, and clinical status.
“All image processing steps in every patient were performed by the same research associate who was blinded to all clinical information (age, gender, and clinical status).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Premisecitation§ ConclusionThe authors have previously described the rates of hippocampal atrophy in patients with probable AD and in age- and sex-matched elderly controls.
“We have previously described the rates of hippocampal atrophy in patients with a diagnosis of probable AD and a group of age and sex matched elderly controls (14 controls and 10 AD patients from that prior study are included in the current work)(6).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [6] Jack CR, Jr, Petersen RC, Xu Y, et al. The rate of medial temporal lobe atrophy in typical aging and Alzheimer's disease. Neurology. 1998;51:993–999. doi: 10.1212/wnl.51.4.993. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone given§ ConclusionThe hippocampal volume data derived from MRI and the APOE genotypes were not known to the ADPR/ADRC consensus committee throughout the study.
“The hippocampal volume data derived from the MRI examination and APOE genotypes were not known to the ADPR/ADRC consensus committee throughout the study.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Premisecitation§ ConclusionThe diagnosis of probable AD was made according to DSM-III-R criteria for dementia and NINCDS/ADRDA criteria for AD.
“The diagnosis of probable AD was made according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders, III Edition–Revised (DSM-III-R) Criteria for dementia, and National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke/Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association Criteria (NINCDS/ADRDA) for AD(8, 9).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [8] American Psychiatric Association. Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders. Revised Third Edition. Washington, D C: 1987. [Google Scholar]
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [9] McKhann G, Drachman D, Folstein M, Katzman R, Price D, Stadlan EM. Clinical diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease: report of the NINCDS-ADRDA work group under the auspices of Department of Health and Human Services Task Force on Alzheimer's disease. Neurology. 1984;34:939–944. doi: 10.1212/wnl.34.7.939. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown data§ ConclusionThe maximum interval between MRI and clinical assessments was ±2 months in 125 subjects, ±4 months in 3 subjects, and ±6 months in a single subject.
“The maximum interval between MRI and clinical assessments was ± 2 months in 125 subjects, ± 4 months in 3 subjects, and ± 6 months in a single subject.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown data§ DiscussionSome proportion of MCIs who on clinical grounds appear cognitively stable over a 3±1 year period are actually undergoing anatomic changes that differ significantly from stable controls, and therefore are progressing toward AD.
“This observation supports the idea that some proportion of MCIs who on clinical grounds appear cognitively stable over a 3± 1 year period are actually undergoing anatomic changes that differ significantly from stable controls, and therefore are progressing toward AD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoning§ DiscussionDichotomization of the control and MCI groups into those who remained stable vs decliners is a crude way to define change in cognition because change in cognition over time occurs as a continuous rather than a step-wise function.
“We also acknowledge that dichotomization of the control and MCI groups into those who remained stable vs decliners is a crude way to define change in cognition because the change in cognition over time occurs as a continuous rather than a step-wise function.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: Change in cognition over time occurs as a continuous rather than a step-wise function.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown data§ DiscussionThe reported rates of hippocampal atrophy were by default a linear fit to two time points.
“While the rates of hippocampal atrophy we report were by default a linear fit to two time points, we do not mean to imply that the rates of change in vivo are necessarily linear.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based).
Interpretationnone given§ DiscussionIndividuals who began the study as controls but declined to MCI or AD were actually in a presymptomatic phase of AD at baseline.
“Certainly individuals who began the study as controls but declined to MCI or AD were actually in a presymptomatic phase of AD at baseline.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S4 (based).
Interpretationreasoning§ DiscussionAD pathology then progressed between baseline and followup to such an extent that cognitive impairment became clinically apparent.
“AD pathology then progressed between baseline and followup to such an extent that cognitive impairment became clinically apparent.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Premisecitation§ DiscussionThe annualized rate of hippocampal volume loss in probable AD patients in a prior longitudinal study of ours was 3.98% (6).
“The annualized rate of hippocampal volume loss in probable AD patients in a prior longitudinal study of ours was 3.98% (6).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [6] Jack CR, Jr, Petersen RC, Xu Y, et al. The rate of medial temporal lobe atrophy in typical aging and Alzheimer's disease. Neurology. 1998;51:993–999. doi: 10.1212/wnl.51.4.993. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductown data§ DiscussionThe number of controls who converted was fairly small (n=10).
“The number of controls who converted was fairly small (n=10).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Interpretationreasoning§ DiscussionIf a therapeutic agent slows or arrests the anatomic progression of AD pathology, this should be detectable as a decrease in the rate of atrophy in a treated vs a placebo group.
“If a therapeutic agent slows or arrests the anatomic progression of AD pathology, this should be detectable as a decrease in the rate of atrophy in a treated vs a placebo group.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown data§ DiscussionThe fact that the rates of hippocampal atrophy were significantly different between stable controls vs control decliners and between stable MCI vs MCI decliners shows promise that the rate of hippocampal atrophy may add additional predictive power to baseline hippocampal volume in assessing the risk of converting to AD for individual patients.
“However, the fact that the rates of hippocampal atrophy were significantly different between stable controls vs control decliners and between stable MCI vs MCI decliners, shows promise that the rate of hippocampal atrophy may add additional predictive power to baseline hippocampal volume in assessing the risk of converting to AD for individual patients.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown data§ DiscussionThe distinction between stable vs a declining members of a group should be detectable both in early symptomatic patient groups (i.e., MCI) and in presymptomatic subjects (i.e., controls).
“Our data also indicate that the distinction between stable vs a declining members of a group should be detectable both in early symptomatic patient groups (i.e., MCI) and in presymptomatic subjects (i.e., controls).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Premisecitation§ DiscussionOther groups have also shown that assessments of hippocampal atrophy can provide predictive information in patients who are at elevated risk for AD (27, 30).
“Other groups have also shown that assessments of hippocampal atrophy can provide predictive information in patients who are at elevated risk for AD(27, 30).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [27] Fox NC, Warrington EK, Freeborough PA, et al. Presymptomatic hippocampal atrophy in Alzheimer's disease. A longitudinal MRI study. Brain. 1996;119:2001–2007. doi: 10.1093/brain/119.6.2001. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [30] de Leon MJ, Golomb J, George AE, et al. The radiologic prediction of Alzheimer disease: the atrophic hippocampal formation. AJNR. 1993;14:897–906. [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar]
Not checked in the free run.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
Interpretationown data§ DiscussionSerial measurements of hippocampal volume may therefore be a useful adjunctive tool to monitor the efficacy of therapeutic trials in groups of patients.
“Serial measurements of hippocampal volume may therefore be a useful adjunctive tool to monitor the efficacy of therapeutic trials in groups of patients.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Interpretationown data§ DiscussionWe attribute this positive change to measurement error.
“We attribute this to measurement error.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The measured change in hippocampal volume in every elderly individual should be ≤0.
The paper relies on this without support.
The transition from normal cognition to Alzheimer's disease is gradual.
“The transition from normal cognition to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is gradual.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Patients who develop clinically evident Alzheimer's disease pass through a transitional period during which they experience declining cognitive abilities relative to age mates.
“Patients who develop clinically evident AD pass through a transitional period during which they experience declining cognitive abilities relative to age mates.”
The paper relies on this without support.
No single test is accepted for defining discrete ranges within the cognitive continuum.
“As no single test is accepted for defining discrete ranges within the cognitive continuum, we chose to use the designations of control, MCI, and AD which are ultimately clinical judgments that are derived from a number of different factors.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Change in cognition over time occurs as a continuous rather than a step-wise function.
“We also acknowledge that dichotomization of the control and MCI groups into those who remained stable vs decliners is a crude way to define change in cognition because the change in cognition over time occurs as a continuous rather than a step-wise function.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The largest volume loss over time should occur in patients who were the most rapid clinical decliners.
“The reported rates of atrophy in the decliner groups may therefore be underestimated, because the largest volume loss over time should occur in patients who were the most rapid clinical decliners.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The pathologic progression leading to AD may extend over decades.
“In any individual patient the pathologic progression leading to AD may extend over decades.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The measured change in hippocampal volume in every elderly individual should be ≤0.
“Theoretically the measured change in hippocampal volume in every elderly individual should be ≤ 0, indicating either no change or volume loss over time.”
The paper relies on this without support.
To our knowledge this is the first study which describes the rates of hippocampal atrophy in MCI patients.
“To our knowledge this is the first study which describes the rates of hippocampal atrophy in MCI patients.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Prior studies on rates of hippocampal atrophy have not distinguished stable controls from control decliners.
“Prior studies on rates of hippocampal atrophy have not distinguished stable controls from control decliners.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
MCI reflects a preclinical stage of Alzheimer's disease and other types of dementia in 50 to 60% of MCI subjects.
“MCI reflects a preclinical stage of AD and other types of dementia in 50 to 60% of the MCI subjects”
From Early dementia diagnosis, MCI-to-dementia risk prediction, and the role of machine learning methods for feature extraction from integrated biomarkers, in particular for EEG signal analysis (2022) · cites this paper as [7]
The Results report that 18 of 43 MCI subjects (42%) progressed to AD over the observation period, supporting the claim that MCI can precede AD. The Discussion also describes progression toward AD in some clinically stable subjects. The paper does not establish the claimed 50–60% figure or report progression to other types of dementia. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredAmong structural imaging studies examining conversion of MCI to AD, there is one longitudinal study and several prediction studies.
“Among structural imaging studies examining the conversion of MCI to AD, there are one longitudinal (40) and several prediction studies (one scan predicting clinical outcome).”
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- Authors
- Jack, C. R., Petersen, R. C., Xu, Y., O’Brien, P. C., Smith, G. E., Ivnik, R. J., Boeve, B. F., Tangalos, E. G., & Kokmen, E.
- Affiliations
- Mayo Clinic (US)
- Venue
- Neurology
- Published
- 2000-08-22
- Volume
- 55
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 484-490
- ISSN
- 0028-3878 (ISSN-L)
- 1526-632X
- PMC
- PMC2724764
- OpenAlex
- W2044367669
- Semantic Scholar
- 412175cf3fadbd098463cf78426d180e44d83935
- Cited by
- 937
- References
- 34
- Citations by year
- 2026: 26 · 2025: 34 · 2024: 33 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 40 · 2021: 47 · 2020: 38 · 2019: 22 · 2018: 31 · 2017: 32 · 2016: 32 · 2015: 21 · 2014: 31 · 2013: 41 · 2012: 42
- FWCI
- 20.00
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Neurology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (AG-08031, P30AG008031, AG-06786, U01AG006786, R01AG011378, AG-11378, R37AG011378, P50AG016574)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Psychiatry and Mental health › Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Physiology › Alzheimer's disease research and treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine › Cancer-related cognitive impairment studies
- Keywords
- hippocampal atrophy, Alzheimer's disease, mild cognitive impairment, cognitive decline, cognitive continuum, aging, brain MRI
- MeSH terms
- Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Aging, Alzheimer Disease, Apolipoproteins E, Atrophy, Cognition Disorders, Female, Follow-Up Studies, Hippocampus, Humans, Longitudinal Studies, Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Male, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Disease Progression
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-09.
Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-09.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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