Dis)confirming theories of consciousness and their predictions: towards a Lakatosian consciousness science
Open accessAbstract
The neuroscience of consciousness is undergoing a significant empirical acceleration thanks to several adversarial collaborations that intend to test different predictions of rival theories of consciousness. In this context, it is important to pair consciousness science with confirmation theory, the philosophical discipline that explores the interaction between evidence and hypotheses, in order to understand how exactly, and to what extent, specific experiments are challenging or validating theories of consciousness. In this paper, I examine this intricate relationship by adopting a Lakatosian lens. I propose that Lakatos' philosophy of science can aid consciousness scientists to better interpret adversarial collaborations in consciousness science and, more generally, to develop a confirmation-theoretic model of theory-appraisal in this field. I do so by suggesting that such a model be built upon three Lakatos-inspired criteria for assessing the relationship between empirical evidence and theoretical predictions: (i) the model should represent the 'distinction between prediction and accommodation'; (ii) the model should represent the 'structural relevance' of predictions; (iii) the model should represent the 'boldness' of the predictions. I argue that a Lakatosian model of theory-appraisal has both normative and descriptive virtues, and can move the debate forward by acknowledging that theory-appraisal needs to consider the diachronic development of theories, their logical structure, and their relationship with background beliefs and knowledge.
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One paradigm might prove more critical for one particular theory than another insofar as it tests predictions closer to its core principles and propositions.
“one paradigm might prove more critical for one particular theory, insofar as it tests predictions that lie closer to its core set of principles and propositions than another's”
From Integrated information and predictive processing theories of consciousness: An adversarial collaborative review (2026) · cites this paper as Negro, 2024
If predictions are borne out by the data, this lends support to the theory from which they were derived (at least to the extent the process theory embodies the relevant theoretical constructs).
“If predictions are borne out by the data, this lends support to the theory from which they were derived (at least to the extent the process theory embodies the relevant theoretical constructs; see Negro et al., 2024).”
From Integrated information and predictive processing theories of consciousness: An adversarial collaborative review (2026) · cites this paper as Negro et al., 2024
Although the findings of a few experiments are seldom sufficient to definitively refute an entire theory, such data are expected to inform the debate (and future research) by clarifying which theory enjoys the most empirical support.
“Although the findings of a few experiments are seldom sufficient to definitively refute an entire theory -perhaps no bad thing considering the relative immaturity of consciousness science (Evers et al., 2024; Negro et al., 2024; Wiese, 2018) -such data are expected to inform the debate (and future research) by clarifying which theory enjoys the most empirical support (Corcoran et al., 2023).”
From Integrated information and predictive processing theories of consciousness: An adversarial collaborative review (2026) · cites this paper as Negro et al., 2024
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Facing the possibility of consciousness in human brain organoids
Wood, C., Wang, H., Yang, W., & Xi, Y. (2025) · Patterns · doi:10.1016/j.patter.2025.101365 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
The multiple generator hypothesis of consciousness
Kirkeby-Hinrup, A., Fink, S. B., & Overgaard, M. S. (2025) · Neuroscience of Consciousness · doi:10.1093/nc/niaf035 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Corcoran, A. W., Haun, A. M., Dorman, R., Tononi, G., Friston, K. J., & Pennartz, C. M. A. (2026) · Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.neubiorev.2026.106742 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Ellia, F., & Tsuchiya, N. (2025) · Neuroscience of Consciousness · doi:10.1093/nc/niaf014 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Building blocks for theories of consciousness
Lopez, A., & Wiese, W. (2025) · Consciousness and Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.concog.2025.103919 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Explanation, scope, and perspective: sources of schismogenesis in consciousness science
Ellia, F., & Tsuchiya, N. (2026) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2026.03.005 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Ellia, F., & Tsuchiya, N. (2024) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/qc5ty · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Against (theory-neutral) method (in consciousness science)
Beni, M. D. (2026) · Neuroscience of Consciousness · doi:10.1093/nc/niag003
An open multi-center MEG-EEG dataset for studying conscious visual perception
Liu, L., Ferrante, O., Ghafari, T., Hetenyi, D., Yang, S., Hirschhorn, R., Górska, U., Sripad, P., Taheriyan, F., Brown, T., et al. (2026) · Scientific Data · doi:10.1038/s41597-026-07350-9
Huang, X. (2026) · Transactions in GIS · doi:10.1111/tgis.70285
Kirkeby-Hinrup, A., & Stoll, E. A. (2026) · Frontiers in Human Neuroscience · doi:10.3389/fnhum.2026.1816314
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Integrated information theory (IIT) and the testability of the silent neuron predictions
de Leon, S. P., & Yoshimi, J. (2026) · Neuroscience of Consciousness · doi:10.1093/nc/niag037
Beyond Cortical Signatures: Measurement Gaps Across Theories of Consciousness
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- Authors
- Negro, N.
- Affiliations
- Tel Aviv University (IL)
- Corresponding author
- Negro, Niccolò
- ORCID
- Negro, Niccolò
- Venue
- Neuroscience of Consciousness
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2024-01-01
- Volume
- 2024
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- niae012-niae012
- ISSN
- 2057-2107 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC10944285
- OpenAlex
- W4392878529
- Cited by
- 21
- References
- 96
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 3
- FWCI
- 8.54
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Neuroscience of Consciousness (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- Azrieli Foundation
- Arc (INTREPID)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Philosophy and Theoretical Science
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › History and Philosophy of Science › Philosophy and History of Science
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Philosophy › Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics
- Keywords
- theory of consciousness, confirmation theory, theory appraisal, adversarial collaboration, theory testing, background beliefs
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