Reconsidering Baron and Kenny: myths and truths about mediation analysis

Zhao, Xinshu; Lynch, John G.; Chen, Qimei

doi:10.1086/651257

Cited by 12,583Advanced Causal Inference TechniquesPsychometric Methodologies and TestingMeta-analysis and systematic reviews

Reconsidering Baron and Kenny: myths and truths about mediation analysis

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Zhao, Xinshu, Lynch, John G., Chen, Qimei·2010·Journal of Consumer Research

DOI 10.1086/651257

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Abstract

Baron and Kenny’s procedure for determining if an independent variable affects a dependent variable through some mediator is so well known that it is used by authors and requested by reviewers almost reflexively. Many research projects have been terminated early in a research program or later in the review process because the data did not conform to Baron and Kenny’s criteria, impeding theoretical development. While the technical literature has disputed some of Baron and Kenny’s tests, this literature has not diffused to practicing researchers. We present a nontechnical summary of the flaws in the Baron and Kenny logic, some of which have not been previously noted. We provide a decision tree and a step-by-step procedure for testing mediation, classifying its type, and interpreting the implications of findings for theory building and future research.

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Following the classification of mediation and nonmediation by Zhao et al. (2010), the results indicate direct-only nonmediation.
“Following the classification of mediation and nonmediation by Zhao et al. (2010), the results indicate direct-only nonmediation.”
From Self-fulfilling prophecies in the classroom: Teacher expectations, teacher feedback and student achievement (2020) · cites this paper as Zhao et al. (2010)
The mediation pattern for consumer brand involvement on self-brand connection corresponds to Zhao et al.'s complementary mediation.
“thus corresponding to Zhao et al.'s (2010) 'complementary' mediation.”
From Consumer Brand Engagement in Social Media: Conceptualization, Scale Development and Validation (2014) · cites this paper as Zhao et al.'s (2010)
Baron and Kenny's procedure produced highly similar results to Zhao et al.'s method.
“Further, the meditation testing we undertook using Baron and Kenny's (1986) procedure produced highly similar results to those attained using Zhao et al.'s (2010) method”
From Consumer Brand Engagement in Social Media: Conceptualization, Scale Development and Validation (2014) · cites this paper as Zhao et al.'s (2010)
The mediation pattern for consumer involvement on brand usage intent suggests complete mediation (indirect-only).
“thus suggesting the existence of complete mediation.This result corresponds to Zhao et al.'s (2010) 'indirect-only' mediation”
From Consumer Brand Engagement in Social Media: Conceptualization, Scale Development and Validation (2014) · cites this paper as Zhao et al.'s (2010)
Indirect effects may exist between a predictor and dependent variable even in the absence of a significant total effect.
“Given that indirect effects may exist between the predictor and dependent variable even in the absence of a significant association (total effect)69”
From Rational thinking as a mediator of the relationship between mindfulness and dental anxiety (2023) · cites this paper as [69]

The current paper prioritized the Zhao et al. (2010) framework for testing and reporting requirements for mediation.
“For the testing and reporting requirements for mediation, the current paper has prioritized the Zhao et al. (2010) framework.”
From Pathways to mental well-being for graduates of mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) and mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR): A mediation analysis of an RCT. (2024) · cites this paper as Zhao et al. (2010)
The current paper met the testing and reporting requirements for formal mediation methods, followed the Zhao et al. (2010) framework, and explored additional requirements for establishing a mechanism of change.
“Strengths of the current paper include meeting the testing and reporting requirements for formal mediation methods, following the Zhao et al. (2010) framework, and exploring additional requirements for establishing a mechanism of change”
From Pathways to mental well-being for graduates of mindfulness-based cognitive therapy (MBCT) and mindfulness-based stress reduction (MBSR): A mediation analysis of an RCT. (2024) · cites this paper as Zhao et al. (2010)
A statistically significant total effect of X on Y is not necessary for mediation to occur and mediation analysis does not require evidence of a total effect prior to investigating direct and indirect effects.
“Note that a statistically significant total effect of X on Y is not necessary for mediation to occur and that mediation analysis does not require evidence of a total effect prior to investigating direct and indirect effects [63–66].”
From Acceptance as a Mediator for Change in Acceptance and Commitment Therapy for Persons with Chronic Pain? (2016) · cites this paper as [66]
Following Zhao et al. (2010), this pattern is consistent with complementary partial mediation, as both the direct and indirect effects are positive and significant.
“Following Zhao et al. (2010), this pattern is consistent with complementary partial mediation, as both the direct and indirect effects are positive and significant.”
From Understanding consumer purchase intention in social media influencer marketing: the mediating role of parasocial relationship and trust in the Moroccan context (2026) · cites this paper as Zhao et al., 2010
Following Zhao et al. (2010), this pattern is consistent with complementary partial mediation: consumers with high credibility evaluations may directly translate these assessments into purchase intentions through a peripheral processing route, while simultaneously developing parasocial bonds and trust through a more elaborated relational route.
“Following Zhao et al. (2010), this pattern is consistent with complementary partial mediation: consumers with high credibility evaluations may directly translate these assessments into purchase intentions through a peripheral processing route, while simultaneously developing parasocial bonds and trust through a more elaborated relational route.”
From Understanding consumer purchase intention in social media influencer marketing: the mediating role of parasocial relationship and trust in the Moroccan context (2026) · cites this paper as Zhao et al., 2010
Statistical significance of the direct effect coefficient c2 signifies that mediation by M is partial.
“We will assess the significance of the direct effect (coefficient c2 in eq. 3): statistical significance of this term will signify that mediation by M is partial [206, 207].”
From A Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) study of medication and CBT sequencing in the treatment of pediatric anxiety disorders (2021) · cites this paper as [207]
Indirect-only mediation is the strongest full mediation.
“Given a significant indirect effect, if Path c is insignificant, the mediation is classified as indirect-only mediation, which is the strongest full mediation (Kenny et al., 1998; Zhao et al., 2010).”
From A neurobiological association of revenge propensity during intergroup conflict (2020) · cites this paper as Zhao et al., 2010
Given a significant indirect effect, if Path c is insignificant, the mediation is classified as indirect-only mediation.
“Given a significant indirect effect, if Path c is insignificant, the mediation is classified as indirect-only mediation, which is the strongest full mediation (Kenny et al., 1998; Zhao et al., 2010).”
From A neurobiological association of revenge propensity during intergroup conflict (2020) · cites this paper as Zhao et al., 2010

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Authors: Zhao, X., Lynch, J. G., & Chen, Q.
Affiliations: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
Duke University (US)
University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US)
ORCID: Zhao, Xinshu
Lynch, John G.
Chen, Qimei
Venue: Journal of Consumer Research
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Published: 2010-08
Volume: 37
Issue: 2
Pages: 197-206
ISSN: 0093-5301 (ISSN-L)
1537-5277
DOI: 10.1086/651257
OpenAlex: W2131568786
Cited by: 12,583
References: 43
Citations by year: 2026: 1581 · 2025: 1236 · 2024: 1162 · 2023: 1227 · 2022: 1207 · 2021: 1156 · 2020: 944 · 2019: 743 · 2018: 637 · 2017: 574 · 2016: 544 · 2015: 439 · 2014: 435 · 2013: 345 · 2012: 225
FWCI: 189.09
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Locations: Journal of Consumer Research (publishedVersion)
HKBU Institutional Repository (Hong Kong Baptist University) (submittedVersion)
DukeSpace (Duke University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
Funders: Center for AIDS Research, University of Washington
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Topics: Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Advanced Causal Inference Techniques
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Psychometric Methodologies and Testing
Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Meta-analysis and systematic reviews
Keywords: mediation analysis, theory development, decision tree

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