The evidence for motivated reasoning in climate change preference formation
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Using social and behavioural science to support COVID-19 pandemic response
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“Although it is difficult to isolate the effects of directional motivations (30), the evidence that we observed was consistent with such an account— in three of five experiments, exposure to corrective information was most effective among respondents who found the correction to be ideologically congenial (e.”
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“Research in this area draws upon the Bayes Theorem, which provides a systematic way to account for the relative influences of old beliefs and new information (see Bullock 2009, Druckman & McGrath 2019).”
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BackgroundInfluencing climate change attitudes in the United States: A systematic review and meta-analysis
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Motivated reasoning and climate change
Bayes, R., & Druckman, J. N. (2021) · Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.cobeha.2021.02.009 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Self-citationBayesian or biased? Analytic thinking and political belief updating
Tappin, B. M., Pennycook, G., & Rand, D. G. (2020) · Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2020.104375 · Cited by 127 · see citing works
Reynolds, J., Stautz, K., Pilling, M., van der Linden, S., & Marteau, T. (2020) · Royal Society Open Science · doi:10.1098/rsos.190522 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
A Framework for the Study of Persuasion
Druckman, J. N. (2022) · Annual Review of Political Science · doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120-110428 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
Self-citationFacts and Where to Find Them: Empirical Research on Internet Platforms and Content Moderation
Keller, D., & Leerssen, P. (2020) · Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) · doi:10.1017/9781108890960
Choices for climate action: A review of the multiple roles individuals play
Hampton, S., & Whitmarsh, L. E. (2023) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2023.08.006 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
When and How Different Motives Can Drive Motivated Political Reasoning
Bayes, R., Druckman, J. N., Goods, A., & Molden, D. C. (2020) · Political Psychology · doi:10.1111/pops.12663 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
“Indeed, Druckman and McGrath (2019) describe the observational equivalence problem in much research on politically motivated reasoning, which occurs when scholars presume directional motivations exist without direct evidence that such a motive played a role among a sample of participants (also see…”
BackgroundSelf-citationPolitical populism, responsiveness, and public support for climate mitigation
Huber, R., Fesenfeld, L., & Bernauer, T. (2020) · Climate Policy · doi:10.1080/14693062.2020.1736490 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
“In other words, populism and dispositional blame attribution might function as an amplifier for pre-existing attitudes and foster the rejection of dissonant information (Druckman & McGrath, 2019; Festinger, 1962).”
Backgroundvan der Linden, S. (2021) · Current Opinion in Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.copsyc.2021.01.005 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
Elite Cues and the Rapid Decline in Trust in Science Agencies on COVID-19
Hamilton, L. C., & Safford, T. G. (2021) · Sociological Perspectives · doi:10.1177/07311214211022391 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
Siegel, A. A. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108890960.005 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
What governs attitudes toward artificial intelligence adoption and governance?
O’Shaughnessy, M. R., Schiff, D. S., Varshney, L. R., Rozell, C. J., & Davenport, M. A. (2022) · Science and Public Policy · doi:10.1093/scipol/scac056 · Cited by 142 · see citing works
The development of partisan polarization over the Green New Deal
Gustafson, A., Rosenthal, S. A., Ballew, M. T., Goldberg, M. H., Bergquist, P., Kotcher, J. E., Maibach, E. W., & Leiserowitz, A. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0621-7 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
Sambrook, K., Konstantinidis, E., Russell, S., & Okan, Y. (2021) · Frontiers in Psychology · doi:10.3389/fpsyg.2021.669911 · Cited by 112 · see citing works
Accuracy and social motivations shape judgements of (mis)information
Rathje, S., Roozenbeek, J., Bavel, J. J. V., & van der Linden, S. (2023) · Nature Human Behaviour · doi:10.1038/s41562-023-01540-w · Cited by 134 · see citing works
“While there have been debates about whether partisan differences in belief reflect differing prior beliefs versus politically-motivated cognition 25,26 , our studies provide causal evidence for the effect of motivation on belief.”
Science beliefs, political ideology, and cognitive sophistication.
Pennycook, G., Bagó, B., & McPhetres, J. (2022) · Journal of Experimental Psychology General · doi:10.1037/xge0001267 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Bayes, R., Bolsen, T., & Druckman, J. N. (2020) · Environmental Communication · doi:10.1080/17524032.2020.1805343 · Cited by 113 · see citing works
“Motivation and scientific consensus messaging One must consider the motivation, or goal, of any individual when processing the scientific consensus message to understand how it affects his/her beliefs about climate change (Druckman & McGrath, 2019).”
BackgroundInfluentialSelf-citationThe Impact of Message Source on the Effectiveness of Communications About Climate Change
Bolsen, T., Palm, R. I., & Kingsland, J. T. (2019) · Science Communication · doi:10.1177/1075547019863154 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
“…et al. 479 identity protective forms of motivated reasoning that would otherwise lead to the rejection of arguments related to a polarized and highly salient issue such as climate change (Benegal & Scruggs, 2018; Druckman & McGrath, 2019; Hamilton, 2011; Kahan, 2015; Kahan et al., 2011, 2012).”
BackgroundThe effects of light pollution on migratory animal behavior
Burt, C. S., Kelly, J. F., Trankina, G. E., Silva, C., Khalighifar, A., Jenkins‐Smith, H. C., Fox, A., Fristrup, K. M., & Horton, K. G. (2023) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2022.12.006 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
“However, examples of speci fi c impacts of new technical knowledge on policy learning and changearerare[121],inpartbecausethebeliefsofpolicyactorstendtobeanchoredindeeplyheldvaluesthatareresistant to change [124,125].”
BackgroundRisk or Efficacy? How Psychological Distance Influences Climate Change Engagement
Chu, H., & Yang, J. Z. (2020) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.13446 · Cited by 105 · see citing works
“…& Liberman, 2010), the highly politicized nature of climate change may determine that people’s perception of temporal and hypothetical distance will be influenced by their value and beliefs (Druckman & McGrath, 2019), which may explain for the lack of significant result on these two dimensions.”
BackgroundHess, D. J., & Maki, A. (2019) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.291 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Wong‐Parodi, G., & Rubin, N. B. (2021) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2021.101728 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
The nature, significance, and influence of perceived personal experience of climate change
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“…and conceptualized as instances of motivated reasoning/confirmation bias and/or prone to other ‘subjective’ limitations and heuristic biases (e.g., Demski et al., 2017; Druckman & McGrath, 2019; Kunda, 1990; Lujala & Lein, 2020; Myers et al., 2013; Reser et al., 2014; van der Linden, 2014).”
BackgroundWintterlin, F., Hendriks, F., Mede, N. G., Bromme, R., Metag, J., & Schäfer, M. S. (2022) · Frontiers in Communication · doi:10.3389/fcomm.2021.822757 · Cited by 99 · see citing works
Pennycook, G., McPhetres, J., Bagó, B., & Rand, D. (2020) · doi:10.31234/osf.io/zhjkp · Cited by 47 · see citing works
“…is not a result of identity-protective cognition per se, but rather differential exposure to different messaging about COVID-19 (for further discussion of the confounded nature of group difference comparisons in the context of partisan bias, see Druckman & McGrath, 2019; Tappin et al., 2020c).”
BackgroundBroockman, D., & Kalla, J. (2024) · The Journal of Politics · doi:10.1086/730725 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
COVID-19 pandemic lessons to facilitate future engagement in the global climate crisis
Perkins, K. M., Munguía, N., Ellenbecker, M. J., Moure‐Eraso, R., & Velazquez, L. E. (2020) · Journal of Cleaner Production · doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125178 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Sealing the gateways for post-truthism: Reestablishing the epistemic authority of science
Kienhues, D., Jucks, R., & Bromme, R. (2020) · Educational Psychologist · doi:10.1080/00461520.2020.1784012 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
“Druckman and McGrath (2019) underscore that in such cases, because personal goals and values are responsible for calibrating the individual’s standards for assessing the credibility of specific information, they indirectly impact on reasoning about the truth.”
BackgroundInfluentialZanocco, C. M., Boudet, H. S., Nilson, R., & Flora, J. A. (2019) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101984 · Cited by 89 · see citing works
Misperceived Social Norms and Willingness to Act Against Climate Change
Andre, P., Boneva, T., Chopra, F., & Falk, A. (2024) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.1162/rest_a_01468 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
The effects of weather experiences on climate change attitudes and behaviors
Sisco, M. R. (2021) · Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability · doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2021.09.001 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
“This phenomenon is often described as motivated reasoning, where past beliefs and motivations to confirm them lead to biased processing of information to uphold those beliefs [64,65].”
BackgroundUsing Social and Behavioural Science to Support COVID-19 Pandemic ResponsePreprint
Bavel, J. J. V., D, K. B. A., Boggio, P. S., Capraro, V., Cichocka, A. K., Cikara, M., Crockett, M. J., Crum, A. J., Douglas, K. M., Druckman, J. N., et al. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4178356 · Cited by 86 · see citing works
Self-citationDisagreeing about how to know: The instructional value of explorations into knowing
Chinn, C. A., Barzilai, S., & Duncan, R. G. (2020) · Educational Psychologist · doi:10.1080/00461520.2020.1786387 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Ballantyne, N., Celniker, J. B., & Dunning, D. A. (2022) · Social Epistemology · doi:10.1080/02691728.2022.2146469 · Cited by 77 · see citing works
Reducing food waste behavior among hospitality employees through communication: dual mediation paths
Tuấn, L. T. (2020) · International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management · doi:10.1108/ijchm-09-2019-0779 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Learning from the Climate Change Debate to Avoid Polarisation on Negative Emissions
Colvin, R. M., Kemp, L., Talberg, A., de Castella, C., Downie, C., Friel, S., Grant, W. J., Howden, M. S., Jotzo, F., Markham, F., et al. (2019) · Environmental Communication · doi:10.1080/17524032.2019.1630463 · Cited by 75 · see citing works
“They do so by seeking perceived credible sources that may differ from authoritative, scientific knowledge (Druckman & Mcgrath, 2019).”
BackgroundUnderstanding the effects of partisan identity on climate change
Doell, K. C., Pärnamets, P., Harris, E., Hackel, L. M., & Bavel, J. J. V. (2021) · Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.cobeha.2021.03.013 · Cited by 72 · see citing works
How Can Psychological Science Help Counter the Spread of Fake News?
van der Linden, S., Roozenbeek, J., Maertens, R., Basol, M., Kácha, O., Rathje, S., & Traberg, C. S. (2021) · The Spanish Journal of Psychology · doi:10.1017/sjp.2021.23 · Cited by 71 · see citing works
“First, it is difficult to disentangle whether partisan bias results frommotivated reasoning or selective exposure to different (factual) beliefs (Druckman & McGrath, 2019; Tappin et al., 2020).”
BackgroundBiased belief in the Bayesian brain: A deeper look at the evidence
Tappin, B. M., & Gadsby, S. (2019) · Consciousness and Cognition · doi:10.1016/j.concog.2019.01.006 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Does Climate Protest Work? Partisanship, Protest, and Sentiment Pools
Bugden, D. (2020) · Socius Sociological Research for a Dynamic World · doi:10.1177/2378023120925949 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
“One of the principal effects of the contest between the climate change movement and countermovement has been to polarize public opinion on climate change and climate policy (Dunlap et al. 2016; McCright and Dunlap 2011).”
BackgroundTowards a Viable Response to COVID-19 from the Science Education Community
Dillon, J. S., & Avraamidou, L. (2020) · Journal for Activist Science and Technology Education · doi:10.33137/jaste.v11i2.34531 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
“Research has shown a link between political convictions and acceptance of climate change science (Motta et al., 2019) but why this is the case is still rather unclear (Druckman & McGrath, 2019).”
BackgroundShrum, T. (2021) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-021-03002-6 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
“These findings are in line with the framework on accuracy motivated reasoning model developed by Druckman and McGrath (2019).”
ResultKerr, J. R., & Wilson, M. S. (2021) · Group Processes & Intergroup Relations · doi:10.1177/1368430221992126 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
“Druckman and McGrath (2019) note substantial “concept creep” regarding the term “motivated reasoning”, such that some researchers label any disagreement with scientific consensus (e.g., climate change denial) as the product of directionally motivated reasoning (that is, reasoning in pursuit of a…”
BackgroundA framework for understanding reasoning errors: From fake news to climate change and beyond
Pennycook, G. (2022) · Advances in experimental social psychology · doi:10.1016/bs.aesp.2022.11.003 · Cited by 88 · see citing works
Democratic Transparency in the Platform Society
Gorwa, R., & Ash, T. G. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108890960.013 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
Greene, C. M., Nash, R. A., & Murphy, G. (2021) · Memory · doi:10.1080/09658211.2021.1923754 · Cited by 67 · see citing works
“Don’t Tell Me What to Do”: Resistance to Climate Change Messages Suggesting Behavior Changes
Palm, R. I., Bolsen, T., & Kingsland, J. T. (2020) · Weather Climate and Society · doi:10.1175/wcas-d-19-0141.1 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
“…body of research has been accumulated that shows that exposure to strategic frames and persuasive messages can influence perceptions and willingness to support various actions to address climate change (Bolsen and Shapiro 2017; Druckman and McGrath 2019; Hart and Feldman 2016; van der Linden 2017).”
BackgroundPopulist Syndrome and Nonmarket Strategy
Blake, D., Markus, S., & Martinez‐Suarez, J. (2022) · Journal of Management Studies · doi:10.1111/joms.12859 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Misinformation and Its Correction
Wittenberg, C., & Berinsky, A. J. (2020) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/9781108890960.009 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Natural disasters and climate change beliefs: The role of distance and prior beliefs
Osberghaus, D., & Fugger, C. (2022) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102515 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
Polarisation of Climate and Environmental Attitudes in the United States, 1973-2022
Smith, E. K., Bognar, M. J., & Mayer, A. (2024) · npj Climate Action · doi:10.1038/s44168-023-00074-1 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
“Climate change scienti fi c knowledge transfer activities are more likely to in fl uence Democratic voters, either via processes of Bayesian updating 64 or motivated reasoning 65,66 .”
Policy framing, design and feedback can increase public support for costly food waste regulation
Fesenfeld, L., Rudolph, L., & Bernauer, T. (2022) · Nature Food · doi:10.1038/s43016-022-00460-8 · Cited by 64 · see citing works
Updating the identity-based model of belief: From false belief to the spread of misinformation
Bavel, J. J. V., Rathje, S., Vlasceanu, M., & Pretus, C. (2024) · Current Opinion in Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.copsyc.2023.101787 · Cited by 69 · see citing works
“While partisan differences in belief are often attributed to motivated reasoning, these differences may arise because people are exposed to different information sources [27,28].”
Trémolière, B., & Djeriouat, H. (2021) · Journal of Environmental Psychology · doi:10.1016/j.jenvp.2021.101561 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
Moderating with the Mob: Evaluating the Efficacy of Real-Time Crowdsourced Fact-Checking
Godel, W., Sanderson, Z., Aslett, K., Nagler, J., Bonneau, R., Persily, N., & Tucker, J. A. (2021) · Journal of Online Trust and Safety · doi:10.54501/jots.v1i1.15 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
“There is robust evidence of partisan-motivated reasoning as individuals seek out information that confirms their partisan identity (Van Bavel and Pereira 2018; Bolsen, Druckman, and Cook 2014; Druckman and McGrath 2019).”
BackgroundCole, J. C., Gillis, A. J., van der Linden, S., Cohen, M. A., & Vandenbergh, M. P. (2025) · Perspectives on Psychological Science · doi:10.1177/17456916231186409 · Cited by 61 · see citing works
“Liberals believe in climate change (Doell et al., 2021; Kahan, 2012; Van Boven et al., 2018), believe climate change is anthropogenic (Druckman & McGrath, 2019), are concerned about climate change (van der Linden, 2017), and support climate change mitigation more than conservatives do (E. Campbell…”
Polarization of climate politics results from partisan sorting: Evidence from Finnish Twittersphere
Chen, T. H. Y., Salloum, A., Gronow, A., Ylä‐Anttila, T., & Kivelä, M. (2021) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102348 · Cited by 65 · see citing works
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The role and limits of strategic framing for promoting sustainable consumption and policy
Fesenfeld, L., Sun, Y., Wicki, M., & Bernauer, T. (2021) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102266 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
“116 However, Druckman and McGrath (2019) have recently challenged the model of directional-117 motivated reasoning, arguing that existing evidence is also in line with an accuracy-motivated 118 model in which individuals seek to assess the credibility of messages.”
InfluentialHow Solutions Journalism Shapes Support for Collective Climate Change Adaptation
Thier, K., & Lin, T. (2022) · Environmental Communication · doi:10.1080/17524032.2022.2143842 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Fighting Climate Change: The Role of Norms, Preferences, and Moral ValuesPreprint
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Attentional and perceptual biases of climate change
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The relationship between political affiliation and beliefs about sources of “fake news”
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“Political orientation may be connected to climate change views through motivated reasoning, where individuals evaluate information about a topic based on their existing ideological precepts, rather than on its objective truth (Kahan, 2015, 2016) Alternatively, people may simply dismiss information sources as not credi…”
BackgroundHow to study democratic backsliding
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Self-citationWhat do you think about climate change?
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Democracy and the Epistemic Problems of Political Polarization
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Political Deepfakes Are as Credible as Other Fake Media and (Sometimes) Real Media
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“Third, expressive partisan-identity theory (Huddy, Mason, & Aarøe, 2015) or "identity-protective cognition" (Druckman & McGrath, 2019; also see Kahan, 2016; Slothuus & de Vreese, 2010) predicts that information congruent with one’s partisan identity will yield a strong affirmation effect, as will…”
BackgroundWither Elites? The Role of Elite Credibility and Knowledge in Public Perceptions of Foreign Policy
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- Authors
- Druckman, J. N., & McGrath, M. C.
- Affiliations
- Northwestern University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Druckman, James N.
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2019-01-21
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 111-119
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W2902092972
- Cited by
- 733
- References
- 98
- Citations by year
- 2026: 105 · 2025: 100 · 2024: 105 · 2023: 102 · 2022: 101 · 2021: 103 · 2020: 92 · 2019: 21 · 2018: 1 · 2013: 2
- FWCI
- 159.48
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Climate Change Communication and Perception
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Risk Perception and Management
- Keywords
- motivated reasoning, climate change beliefs, belief updating, Bayesian updating, information credibility, partisanship, belief accuracy, science communication
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