Random effects structure for confirmatory hypothesis testing: Keep it maximal
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Abstract
Linear mixed-effects models (LMEMs) have become increasingly prominent in psycholinguistics and related areas. However, many researchers do not seem to appreciate how random effects structures affect the generalizability of an analysis. Here, we argue that researchers using LMEMs for confirmatory hypothesis testing should minimally adhere to the standards that have been in place for many decades. Through theoretical arguments and Monte Carlo simulation, we show that LMEMs generalize best when they include the maximal random effects structure justified by the design. The generalization performance of LMEMs including data-driven random effects structures strongly depends upon modeling criteria and sample size, yielding reasonable results on moderately-sized samples when conservative criteria are used, but with little or no power advantage over maximal models. Finally, random-intercepts-only LMEMs used on within-subjects and/or within-items data from populations where subjects and/or items vary in their sensitivity to experimental manipulations always generalize worse than separate F1 and F2 tests, and in many cases, even worse than F1 alone. Maximal LMEMs should be the 'gold standard' for confirmatory hypothesis testing in psycholinguistics and beyond.
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When the specified model failed to converge, the random effects structure was simplified following recommended procedures.
“When the specified model failed to converge, we simplified the random effects structure following recommended procedures [7]: first removing correlation parameters among random effects, then if necessary removing random slopes for higher-order interactions, and only as a last resort removing random slopes for main effects of theoretical interest.”
From All Public Voices Are Equal, But Are Some More Equal Than Others to LLMs? (2026) · cites this paper as [7]
In “Coping with failures to converge” (page not available), the paper recommends considering removal of random correlations while retaining slopes for predictors of theoretical interest. It does not prescribe the cited sequence of removing higher-order interaction slopes before main-effect slopes, and it advises retaining critical slopes rather than treating their removal as a standard last resort. (LLM, conf=0.86)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredNon-balanced design with non-independent observations is accounted for by fitting mixed effects models with random intercepts for strata, challenges, and individuals.
“Essentially, we have a non-balanced design with non-independent observations and we account for it by fitting mixed effects models with random intercepts for strata, challenges, and individuals (Barr, Levy, Scheepers, & Tily, 2013).”
From Relative Feedback Increases Disparities in Effort and Performance in Crowdsourcing Contests (2022) · cites this paper as Barr, Levy, Scheepers, & Tily, 2013
In “Random effects in LMEMs and ANOVA,” the paper explains that random intercepts can account for clustering and non-independence across subjects and items. It does not prescribe intercepts for the citing study’s particular strata, challenges, and individuals. In “Identifying the maximal random effects structure,” it also advises trying random slopes for unbalanced within-unit designs, so intercepts alone are not generally sufficient. (LLM, conf=0.87)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThe statistical model selection started with a maximal random effect structure imposed by the experimental design, and if it did not converge, random slopes and intercepts were iteratively reduced until convergence; if more than one model converged, the best-fit model was selected by AIC.
“To identify the statistical model that would converge for each dependent variable, we started with a model that includes the dependent variable as a response variable with no fixed effects and a maximal random effect structure imposed by the experimental design (Barr et al., 2013). If the model did not reach convergence, we iteratively reduced the random effect structure by excluding random slopes”
From The influence of landmark visualization style on task performance, visual attention, and spatial learning in a real-world navigation task (2024) · cites this paper as Barr et al., 2013
Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 1 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredWhen non-Gaussian models with multiple random effects fail to converge, researchers often settle for a model that ignores non-independence and yields estimates with inappropriately high confidence and statistical significance.
“which often lets researchers settle for a model that ignores non-independence and yields estimates with inappropriately high confidence and statistical significance (Arnqvist, 2020; Barr et al., 2013; Forstmeier et al., 2017)”
From Violating the normality assumption may be the lesser of two evils (2021) · cites this paper as Barr et al., 2013
In ‘Coping with failures to converge’ (page not provided), Barr et al. say maximal models often fail to converge, especially for categorical data, and warn against falling back to random-intercepts-only models. Their Results and Discussion say omitting relevant random effects can produce anticonservative tests. The paper does not establish how often researchers actually settle for such models, and it cautions that its results for continuous data may need modification for noncontinuous data. (LLM, conf=0.83)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredA simulation that treats all workers as identical would fail to capture variation and might overestimate power.
“A simulation which treated all workers as identical would fail to capture this variation, and hence might overestimate power (Barr et al., 2013).”
From With Little Power Comes Great Responsibility (2020) · cites this paper as Barr et al., 2013
The Method (Generating simulated data; page unavailable) includes variation among subjects in the simulations, and the Method (Performance metrics; page unavailable) warns that anticonservative analyses can have inflated apparent power. This supports the general concern about omitting individual variation, but the paper does not specifically test a simulation that treats workers as identical or show that it overestimates power. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
When models failed to converge, the random effects structure was simplified following Barr et al. (2005), documenting all attempted specifications.
“When models failed to converge, we simplified the random effects structure following Barr et al. [7], documenting all attempted specifications.”
From All Public Voices Are Equal, But Are Some More Equal Than Others to LLMs? (2026) · cites this paper as [7]
The maximal random-effects structure was maintained as justified by the design.
“Thus, we maintained the maximal random-effects structure justified by the design (Barr et al., 2013).”
From Overconfidence without Understanding: AI Explanations Increase the Illusion of Explanatory Depth (2025) · cites this paper as Barr et al., 2013
Problems with pseudoreplication due to issues with model convergence can lead to anticonservative p values and a high risk of false-positive claims.
“as well as problems with pseudoreplication due to issues with model convergence (Arnqvist, 2020; Barr et al., 2013; Forstmeier et al., 2017).”
From Violating the normality assumption may be the lesser of two evils (2021) · cites this paper as Barr et al., 2013
The random-effects structure was close to the maximal model, except that interaction terms were not included as random slopes.
“This randomeffects structure was close to the maximal model (Barr, Levy, Scheepers, & Tily, 2013), except that we did not include the interaction terms as random slopes.”
From Effects of Availability, Contingency, and Formulaicity on the Accuracy of English Grammatical Morphemes in Second Language Writing (2022) · cites this paper as Barr, Levy, Scheepers, & Tily, 2013
To keep type I error rate at the nominal 5%, random slopes were included for both proximity and period type within-subject.
“To keep type I error rate at the nominal 5%, we included random slopes (46, 47) for both proximity and period type within-subject.”
From Oxytocin reactivity during intergroup conflict in wild chimpanzees (2017) · cites this paper as [46]
Random slopes were included for the test predictors (event or anticipation) as well as for subgroup size, rank, and proximity within-subject.
“We included random slopes (46, 47) for the test predictors (i.e., event or anticipation) as well as for subgroup size, rank, and proximity within-subject.”
From Oxytocin reactivity during intergroup conflict in wild chimpanzees (2017) · cites this paper as [46]
Following the recommendation of Barr et al., maximal models were used, including participants as a random effect with both random intercepts and random slopes.
“Following the recommendation of Barr et al.87, we used maximal models, including participants as a random effect with both random intercepts and random slopes.”
From Acute social isolation evokes midbrain craving responses similar to hunger (2020) · cites this paper as [87]
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Relationship quality affects social stress buffering in dogs and wolves
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Semi-field studies to better understand the impact of eave tubes on mosquito mortality and behaviour
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“To identify the statistical model that would converge for each dependent variable, we started with a model that includes the dependent variable as a response variable with no fixed effects and a maximal random effect structure imposed by the experimental design (Barr et al., 2013).”
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Executive control and faithfulness: Only long-term romantic relationships require prefrontal control
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Use of morphological and contextual cues in children’s lexical inferencing in L1 and L2
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Effects of learner choice over automated, immediate feedback
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Development and Validation of the Single-Item Mindfulness Scale (SIMS)
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High spatial frequency filtered primes hastens happy faces categorization in autistic adults
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How do listeners time response articulation when answering questions? The role of speech rate.
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Sustained conscious access to incidental memories in RSVP
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Relative Feedback Increases Disparities in Effort and Performance in Crowdsourcing Contests
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What is the interference in ‘verbal interference’?
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“In the cases of singularity or convergence errors, the random effects structure was simplified [9].”
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All Public Voices Are Equal, But Are Some More Equal Than Others to LLMs?
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Predicting emotional valence in autism: a preregistered study in the Bayesian Brain framework
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Overconfidence without Understanding: AI Explanations Increase the Illusion of Explanatory Depth
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- Authors
- Barr, D. J., Levy, R., Scheepers, C., & Tily, H. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Glasgow (GB)
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Barr, Dale J.
- Venue
- Journal of Memory and Language
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2013-04
- Volume
- 68
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 255-278
- ISSN
- 0749-596X (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3881361
- OpenAlex
- W2141845152
- Cited by
- 10,328
- References
- 12
- Citations by year
- 2026: 932 · 2025: 1029 · 2024: 937 · 2023: 928 · 2022: 991 · 2021: 1094 · 2020: 952 · 2019: 802 · 2018: 726 · 2017: 597 · 2016: 507 · 2015: 433 · 2014: 290 · 2013: 97 · 2012: 4
- FWCI
- 360.53
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Journal of Memory and Language (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- ENLIGHTEN (Jurnal Bimbingan dan Konseling Islam) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Economic and Social Research Council (ES/G045720/1)
- Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01HD065829)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference
- Social Sciences › Arts and Humanities › Language and Linguistics › Syntax, Semantics, Linguistic Variation
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Experimental and Cognitive Psychology › Categorization, perception, and language
- Keywords
- linear mixed models, generalizability, sample size, statistical power, within-subjects design, psycholinguistics
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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