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Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments
Abstract
People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains. The authors suggest that this overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it. Across 4 studies, the authors found that participants scoring in the bottom quartile on tests of humor, grammar, and logic grossly overestimated their test performance and ability. Although their test scores put them in the 12th percentile, they estimated themselves to be in the 62nd. Several analyses linked this miscalibration to deficits in metacognitive skill, or the capacity to distinguish accuracy from error. Paradoxically, improving the skills of participants, and thus increasing their metacognitive competence, helped them recognize the limitations of their abilities.
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In the citing paper
“This pattern is consistent with the metacognitive model formulated by Kruger and Dunning (76), who demonstrated that individuals with limited competence in a given domain tend to lack awareness of that very limitation, resulting in systematic self-assessment inflation.”
From Health misinformation, digital health literacy, and attitudes toward science among university students: an exploratory cross-sectional survey (2026) · cites this paper as [76]
In the citing paper
“which is inconsistent with previous studies that have identified low- performing students as demonstrating the most significant metacognitive disconnect due to the Dunning- Kruger effect (Kruger & Dunning,1999; Ehrlinger et al.,2008; Sawdon & Finn,2014; Steuber et al.,2017).”
From Promoting metacognition in an allied health anatomy course (2023) · cites this paper as Kruger & Dunning,1999
In the citing paper
“The decline in performance of human-AI teams when tackling tasks of medium complexity suggests that users may have faced challenges in accurately assessing their own abilities and the capabilities of AI systems, primarily by overestimating their own abilities [64].”
From Dealing with Uncertainty: Understanding the Impact of Prognostic Versus Diagnostic Tasks on Trust and Reliance in Human-AI Decision Making (2024) · cites this paper as [64]
In the citing paper
“By contrast, this literature suggests that individuals who do not know much about a subject tend not to recognize their ignorance and therefore typically fail to seek better information (Kruger and Dunning 1999).”
From Financial literacy, financial advice, and financial behavior (2017) · cites this paper as Kruger and Dunning 1999
In the citing paper
“Media literacy has long focused on personal responsibility, which can not only imbue individuals with a false sense of confidence in their skills (Sanchez & Dunning, 2018; Kruger & Dunning, 1999), but put the onus of monitoring media effects on the audience, rather than media creators, social media platforms, or regulators.”
From The Promises, Challenges, and Futures of Media Literacy (2018) · cites this paper as Kruger & Dunning, 1999
In the citing paper
“This was likely observed in the small proportions of participants whose scores did not change or decreased from pre- to post-test.”
In the citing paper
“Kruger and Dunning (1999) report a series of experiments in which the worst-performing subjects on a variety of tests showed a bigger discrepancy between actual performance and a one-shot rating than the better performers.”
From How to measure metacognition (2014) · cites this paper as Kruger and Dunning (1999)
In the citing paper
“This double curse means that those people who lack the skills to produce the right answers likewise lack the ability to judge whether their own answers (and those of other people) are in fact right.”
From The Exam Autopsy: An Integrated Post-Exam Assessment Model (2019) · cites this paper as Kruger & Dunning, 1999
In the citing paper
“Yet concerns have been raised as to the validity and reliability of self-assessments as true indicators of student ability and progress (Dunn & Mulvenon, 2009;Kruger & Dunning, 1999;Ross, 2006)”
From The Exam Autopsy: An Integrated Post-Exam Assessment Model (2019) · cites this paper as Kruger & Dunning, 1999
In the citing paper
“in other words, students may not know enough to be able to gauge their own ignorance or incompetence, and consequently these may be insufficient as self-monitoring tools.”
From The Exam Autopsy: An Integrated Post-Exam Assessment Model (2019) · cites this paper as Kruger & Dunning, 1999
In the citing paper
“They found that building monitoring skills improved self-evaluations and achievement among struggling students.”
From The Potential of Exam Wrappers in Higher Education Assessment Practice: Fostering Self-Efficacy Through Guided Self-Reflection (2025) · cites this paper as Kruger and Dunning (1999)
In the citing paper
“Kruger and Dunning (1999) extended these findings, showing that poor performers are typically least accurate in appraising their abilities.”
From The Potential of Exam Wrappers in Higher Education Assessment Practice: Fostering Self-Efficacy Through Guided Self-Reflection (2025) · cites this paper as Kruger and Dunning (1999)
In the citing paper
“performance gains often occur without altering individuals’ self-perceptions, the two becoming aligned because performance increases to meet perceptions.”
From Factors influencing responsiveness to feedback: On the interplay between fear, confidence, and reasoning processes. (2012) · cites this paper as Kruger and Dunning’s (1999)
In the citing paper
“Studies of university students also indicate a paradoxical pattern in which generative-AI use can increase perceived efficiency or self-efficacy while simultaneously strengthening technological dependence or false self-efficacy (Zhang and Xu, 2025; Jia et al., 2025; Kruger and Dunning, 1999).”
From College students' metacognitive awareness of generative-AI reliance: an experimental study of decision confidence and attribution bias (2026) · cites this paper as Kruger and Dunning, 1999
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“According to the Dunning–Kruger framework, individuals lacking genuine competence often fail to accurately evaluate their own abilities, leading those with low ability to overestimate themselves (Kruger & Dunning, 1999).”
Metadata
- Authors
- Kruger, J., & Dunning, D.
- Affiliations
- University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
- Cornell University (US)
- Venue
- Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
- Published
- 1999
- Volume
- 77
- Issue
- 6
- Pages
- 1121-1134
- ISSN
- 0022-3514 (ISSN-L)
- 1939-1315
- OpenAlex
- W2146006411
- Cited by
- 7,731
- References
- 55
- Citations by year
- 2026: 683 · 2025: 606 · 2024: 570 · 2023: 606 · 2022: 549 · 2021: 599 · 2020: 556 · 2019: 549 · 2018: 414 · 2017: 335 · 2016: 288 · 2015: 312 · 2014: 209 · 2013: 203 · 2012: 206
- FWCI
- 20.43
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- U.S. Public Health Service (R01-56072)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Personality Traits and Psychology
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
- Keywords
- overconfidence, self-assessment, metacognition, metacognitive skills, self-knowledge, overestimation of ability, metacognitive calibration, grammar, logic, skill deficits, self-awareness
- MeSH terms
- Cognition, Female, Humans, Intelligence, Language, Logic, Male, Problem Solving, Surveys and Questionnaires, Self-Assessment, Self Concept, Social Perception
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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