Neural differentiation of expected reward and risk in human subcortical structures
Open accessAbstract
In decision-making under uncertainty, economic studies emphasize the importance of risk in addition to expected reward. Studies in neuroscience focus on expected reward and learning rather than risk. We combined functional imaging with a simple gambling task to vary expected reward and risk simultaneously and in an uncorrelated manner. Drawing on financial decision theory, we modeled expected reward as mathematical expectation of reward, and risk as reward variance. Activations in dopaminoceptive structures correlated with both mathematical parameters. These activations differentiated spatially and temporally. Temporally, the activation related to expected reward was immediate, while the activation related to risk was delayed. Analyses confirmed that our paradigm minimized confounds from learning, motivation, and salience. These results suggest that the primary task of the dopaminergic system is to convey signals of upcoming stochastic rewards, such as expected reward and risk, beyond its role in learning, motivation, and salience.
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When some amount of uncertainty is expected, learning rates should decrease.
“When some amount of uncertainty is expected (also referred to as outcome variance or risk), learning rates should decrease.10–14”
From Serotonin neurons modulate learning rate through uncertainty (2022) · cites this paper as [10]
With monetary rewards, ventral striatum activity can signal both anticipated reward magnitude and probability.
“With monetary rewards, research shows that ventral striatum activity can signal both anticipated reward magnitude and probability 56, 57.”
From The social brain and reward: Social information processing in the human striatum (2014) · cites this paper as [57]
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Dopamine Modulates Adaptive Prediction Error Coding in the Human Midbrain and Striatum
Diederen, K. M. J., Ziauddeen, H., Vestergaard, M. D., Spencer, T., Schultz, W., & Fletcher, P. C. (2017) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.1979-16.2016 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Human VMPFC encodes early signatures of confidence in perceptual decisions
Gherman, S., & Philiastides, M. G. (2018) · eLife · doi:10.7554/elife.38293 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Contextual novelty changes reward representations in the striatum
Guitart-Masip, M., Bunzeck, N., Stephan, K. E., Dolan, R. J., & Düzel, E. (2010) · The Journal of Neuroscience · doi:10.1523/jneurosci.5331-09.2010 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Short-Term Temporal Discounting of Reward Value in Human Ventral Striatum
Gregorios-Pippas, L., Tobler, P. N., & Schultz, W. (2009) · Journal of Neurophysiology · doi:10.1152/jn.90730.2008 · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Levy, I., & Schiller, D. (2021) · Trends in Cognitive Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.tics.2020.11.007 · Cited by 95 · see citing works
Striatal dopamine release codes uncertainty in pathological gambling
Linnet, J., Mouridsen, K., Peterson, E., Møller, A., Doudet, D. J., & Gjedde, A. (2012) · Psychiatry Research: Neuroimaging · doi:10.1016/j.pscychresns.2012.04.012 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Dynamic shaping of dopamine signals during probabilistic Pavlovian conditioning
Hart, A. S., Clark, J. J., & Phillips, P. E. M. (2015) · Neurobiology of Learning and Memory · doi:10.1016/j.nlm.2014.07.010 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Striatal structure and function predict individual biases in learning to avoid pain
Eldar, E., Hauser, T. U., Dayan, P., & Dolan, R. J. (2016) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1519829113 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Anterior insula reflects surprise in value-based decision-making and perception
Loued-Khenissi, L., Pfeuffer, A., Einhäuser, W., & Preuschoff, K. (2020) · NeuroImage · doi:10.1016/j.neuroimage.2020.116549 · Cited by 66 · see citing works
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P300 amplitude variations, prior probabilities, and likelihoods: a Bayesian ERP study
Kopp, B., Seer, C., Lange, F., Kluytmans, A., Kolossa, A., Fingscheidt, T., & Hoijtink, H. (2016) · Cognitive, Affective, & Behavioral Neuroscience · doi:10.3758/s13415-016-0442-3 · Cited by 60 · see citing works
Studying the neural representations of uncertainty
Walker, E. Y., Pohl, S., Denison, R. N., Barack, D. L., Lee, J., Block, N., Ma, W. J., & Meyniel, F. (2023) · Nature Neuroscience · doi:10.1038/s41593-023-01444-y · Cited by 56 · see citing works
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Aberrant orbitofrontal cortex reactivity to erotic cues in compulsive sexual behavior disorder
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Available alternative incentives modulate anticipatory nucleus accumbens activation
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Variables influencing the neural correlates of perceived risk of physical harm
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Brain Activity Foreshadows Stock Price Dynamics
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- Authors
- Preuschoff, K., Bossaerts, P., & Quartz, S. R.
- Affiliations
- California Institute of Technology (US)
- Corresponding author
- Preuschoff, Kerstin
- Venue
- Neuron
- Publisher
- Elsevier BV
- Published
- 2006-08
- Volume
- 51
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 381-390
- ISSN
- 0896-6273 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2139635035
- Cited by
- 692
- References
- 55
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 30 · 2022: 28 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 30 · 2017: 27 · 2016: 34 · 2015: 37 · 2014: 37 · 2013: 51 · 2012: 42
- FWCI
- 21.27
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
- www.elsevier.com/legal/tdmrep-license (tdm)
- www.elsevier.com/open-access/userlicense/1.0/ (vor, 2578 d)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-017 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-037 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-012 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-029 (stm-asf)
- doi.org/10.15223/policy-004 (stm-asf)
- Locations
- Neuron (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- CaltechAUTHORS (California Institute of Technology) (submittedVersion)
- Infoscience (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) (submittedVersion)
- Infoscience (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Funders
- David and Lucile Packard Foundation
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
- National Science Foundation (0093757)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Neural and Behavioral Psychology Studies
- Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cellular and Molecular Neuroscience › Neurotransmitter Receptor Influence on Behavior
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
- Keywords
- expected reward, risk, decision making under uncertainty, gambling task, dopaminergic system, subcortical structures, reward variance, expected value, stochastic rewards
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Brain, Brain Mapping, Discrimination Learning, Female, Humans, Male, Psychomotor Performance, Reward, Risk-Taking
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