Management of patients with increased risk for familial pancreatic cancer: updated recommendations from the International Cancer of the Pancreas Screening (CAPS) Consortium
Open accessAbstract
Background and aim: The International Cancer of the Pancreas Screening Consortium met in 2018 to update its consensus recommendations for the management of individuals with increased risk of pancreatic cancer based on family history or germline mutation status (high-risk individuals). Methods: A modified Delphi approach was employed to reach consensus among a multidisciplinary group of experts who voted on consensus statements. Consensus was considered reached if ≥75% agreed or disagreed. Results: Consensus was reached on 55 statements. The main goals of surveillance (to identify high-grade dysplastic precursor lesions and T1N0M0 pancreatic cancer) remained unchanged. Experts agreed that for those with familial risk, surveillance should start no earlier than age 50 or 10 years earlier than the youngest relative with pancreatic cancer, but were split on whether to start at age 50 or 55. Germline ATM mutation carriers with one affected first-degree relative are now considered eligible for surveillance. Experts agreed that preferred surveillance tests are endoscopic ultrasound and MRI/magnetic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, but no consensus was reached on how to alternate these modalities. Annual surveillance is recommended in the absence of concerning lesions. Main areas of disagreement included if and how surveillance should be performed for hereditary pancreatitis, and the management of indeterminate lesions. Conclusions: Pancreatic surveillance is recommended for selected high-risk individuals to detect early pancreatic cancer and its high-grade precursors, but should be performed in a research setting by multidisciplinary teams in centres with appropriate expertise. Until more evidence supporting these recommendations is available, the benefits, risks and costs of surveillance of pancreatic surveillance need additional evaluation.
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- Findingreasoning
Most pancreatic surveillance protocols for high-risk individuals use MRI/MRCP and/or EUS, with pancreatic-protocol CT reserved for those unable to have MRI or EUS.
“Most pancreatic surveillance protocols for high-risk individuals use pancreatic imaging with MRI/magneticretrograde cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) and/or endoscopic ultrasound (EUS), with pancreatic-protocol CT reserved for individuals unable to have MRI or EUS.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
The average age for diagnosis of pancreatic cancer is slightly younger in smokers, by several years, than in non-smokers.
“The average age for diagnosis of pancreatic cancer is slightly younger in smokers (by several years) than in non-smokers.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Findingcitation
The average age of pancreatic cancer diagnosis among individuals with a family history of pancreatic cancer is younger than for those with no family history.
“The average age of pancreatic cancer diagnosis among individuals with a family history of pancreatic cancer is younger than for those with no family history”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
Subcentimetre pancreatic cysts are detected in up to 50% of high-risk individuals, depending on the age of the cohort.
“Subcentimetre pancreatic cysts are detected in up to 50% of high-risk individuals, depending on the age of the cohort.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [10] Canto, 2018, Risk of neoplastic progression in individuals at high risk for pancreatic cancer undergoing long-term surveillance, Gastroenterology source
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- cites [54] Zerboni, 2019, Systematic review and meta-analysis: prevalence of incidentally detected pancreatic cystic lesions in asymptomatic individuals, Pancreatology source
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- Findingcitation
Most pancreatic cancers in high-risk individuals with familial risk only under surveillance are diagnosed after age 55.
“To date, most pancreatic cancers in high-risk individuals with familial risk only (ie, no known susceptibility gene mutation) under surveillance are diagnosed after age 55.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [10] Canto, 2018, Risk of neoplastic progression in individuals at high risk for pancreatic cancer undergoing long-term surveillance, Gastroenterology source
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- Findingcitation
A study of BRCA mutation carriers found no difference in pancreatic cyst prevalence by family history.
“A study of BRCA mutation carriers found no difference in pancreatic cyst prevalence by family history”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [47] Roch, 2019, Are BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene mutation patients underscreened for pancreatic adenocarcinoma?, J Surg Oncol source
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- Findingcitation
Mutation carriers who develop pancreatic cancer are diagnosed at a slightly younger age, about 3-5 years, than those with sporadic forms of the disease.
“mutation carriers who develop pancreatic cancer are diagnosed at a slightly younger age (~3–5 years) than those with sporadic forms of the disease.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [34] Shindo, 2017, Deleterious germline mutations in patients with apparently sporadic pancreatic adenocarcinoma, J Clin Oncol source
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- cites [35] Hu, 2018, Association between inherited germline mutations in cancer predisposition genes and risk of pancreatic cancer, JAMA source
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- cites [36] source
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- Findingnone given
The risk of pancreatic cancer in ATM/BRCA/PALB2 mutation carriers without a pancreatic cancer family history is not well defined.
“The risk of pancreatic cancer in ATM/BRCA/PALB2 mutation carriers without a pancreatic cancer family history is not well defined.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingcitation
Sixteen percent of p16-Leiden mutation carriers with pancreatic cancer were diagnosed at age <45.
“16% of p16-Leiden mutation carriers with pancreatic cancer were diagnosed at age <4550”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [50] Potjer, 2015, Pancreatic cancer-associated gene polymorphisms in a nation-wide cohort of p16-Leiden germline mutation carriers; a case–control study, BMC Res Notes source
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- Premisecitation
These deleterious variants also confer risk for other cancers.
“These variants also confer risk for other cancers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [40] source
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- Premisecitation
Deleterious variants in CPA1 and CPB1 associated with pancreatic cancer risk may not always progress through a clinical syndrome of pancreatitis.
“Deleterious variants in CPA1 and CPB1 associated with pancreatic cancer risk may not always progress through a clinical syndrome of pancreatitis.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [31] source
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- Interpretationcitation
The average lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer in the USA, about 1 in 64, is too low for population-based screening.
“The average lifetime risk of developing pancreatic cancer (~1 in 64 in the USA) is too low for population-based screening.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
The estimated lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer for an individual with two first-degree relatives with pancreatic cancer is about 8%.
“the estimated lifetime risk of developing pancreatic cancer for an individual with two first-degree relatives with pancreatic cancer is ~8%.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
Family history of pancreatic cancer is also a risk factor for patients with incidentally detected pancreatic cysts.
“Family history of pancreatic cancer is also a risk factor for patients identified as having incidentally detected pancreatic cysts.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [17] Mukewar SS , Sharma A , Phillip N , et al . Risk of pancreatic cancer in patients with pancreatic cysts and family history of pancreatic cancer. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2018. source
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- Premisecitation
PRSS1, CPA1 and CTRC are associated with significantly increased risk of developing pancreatitis.
“The pancreatitis susceptibility genes, PRSS1, CPA1 and CTRC, are associated with significantly increased risk of developing pancreatitis.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 4 sources checked - Premisecitation
Deleterious variants in known pancreatic cancer susceptibility genes account for about 10-20% of familial clustering of pancreatic cancer.
“Deleterious variants in the known pancreatic cancer susceptibility genes account for ~10–20% of the familial clustering of pancreatic cancer.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [26] source
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- cites [32] Chaffee KG , Oberg AL , McWilliams RR , et al . Prevalence of germ-line mutations in cancer genes among pancreatic cancer patients with a positive family history. Genet Med 2018;20.doi:10.1038/gim.2017.85 source
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- cites [33] source
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- Premisecitation
Current surveillance recommendations for a family history are the same as for those without a family history.
“Current surveillance recommendations for a family history (generally in one blood relative) are the same as for those without a family history.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked - Premisecitation
The number of first- and second-degree relatives with pancreatic cancer can be used to quantify pancreatic cancer risk.
“The number of first- and second-degree relatives with pancreatic cancer can be used to quantify pancreatic cancer risk.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [15] source
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- Premisecitation
Deleterious variants have been reported in about 5-10% of patients with apparently sporadic pancreatic cancer.
“Deleterious variants have also been reported in ~5–10% of patients with apparently sporadic pancreatic cancer.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 6 sources checked- cites [34] Shindo, 2017, Deleterious germline mutations in patients with apparently sporadic pancreatic adenocarcinoma, J Clin Oncol source
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- cites [35] Hu, 2018, Association between inherited germline mutations in cancer predisposition genes and risk of pancreatic cancer, JAMA source
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- cites [36] source
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- cites [37] Wood, 2019, Genetics of familial and sporadic pancreatic cancer, Gastroenterology source
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- cites [38] Yurgelun, 2019, Germline cancer susceptibility gene variants, somatic second hits, and survival outcomes in patients with resected pancreatic cancer, Genet Med source
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- cites [39] source
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- Premisecitation
Overdiagnosis-related harms may require many years before they become apparent, similar to other cancers.
“This is a difficult balance to achieve since the harms of overdiagnosis can take many years to become evident, as is the case for other cancers.114–116”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked - Premisecitation
The two studies (Vasen et al and the CAPS study) show that pancreatic surveillance of high-risk individuals can lead to downstaging of pancreatic cancers diagnosed.
“These two studies show that pancreatic surveillance of high-risk individuals can lead to downstaging of pancreatic cancers diagnosed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Vasen et al,7
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- cites [10] Canto, 2018, Risk of neoplastic progression in individuals at high risk for pancreatic cancer undergoing long-term surveillance, Gastroenterology source
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- Premisecitation
Most pancreatic surveillance programmes lower the age at which surveillance is initiated for individuals with a first-degree relative with young-onset pancreatic cancer (age <50).
“Most pancreatic surveillance programmes lower the age at which surveillance is initiated for individuals with a first-degree relative with young-onset pancreatic cancer (age <50).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [49] source
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- Premisecitation
Family history remains an important risk assessment tool.
“Although family history remains an important risk assessment tool,48 pedigrees are often small and family histories incomplete.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [48] Ginsburg, 2019, Family health history: underused for actionable risk assessment, The Lancet source
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- Premisecitation
Downstaging of pancreatic cancers is associated with better survival compared with historical controls, especially when surveillance detects stage I cancers.
“Such downstaging is associated with better survival compared with historical controls, particularly when surveillance detects stage I cancers.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites Vasen et al,7
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- cites [10] Canto, 2018, Risk of neoplastic progression in individuals at high risk for pancreatic cancer undergoing long-term surveillance, Gastroenterology source
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- Interpretationcitation
Biological features such as early lymph node metastases and venous invasion, even in small cancers, make early detection particularly difficult.
“biological characteristics, such as early lymph node metastases and venous invasion even with small cancers 107, make early detection efforts particularly challenging.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [107] Hruban, 2019, Why is pancreatic cancer so deadly? the pathologist's view, J Pathol source
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- Rests on an assumption: Interval advanced-stage pancreatic cancers occur in some patients undergoing regular pancreatic imaging.
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 39
- May combine two claims. 9
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenFor carriers of mutations in ATM, BRCA2 and PALB2, the experts reached consensus to recommend surveillance for those who have a blood relative with pancreatic cancer.
“For carriers of mutations in ATM, BRCA2 and PALB2, the consensus among experts was to recommended surveillance for mutation carriers who have a blood relative with pancreatic cancer.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
FindingreasoningSurveillance for CDKN2A and STK11 mutation carriers is recommended irrespective of family history because of their high lifetime risk.
“Surveillance for CDKN2A and STK11 (Peutz-Jegher syndrome) mutation carriers is recommended irrespective of patients’ family history of pancreatic cancer, because of their high lifetime risk.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe 76 final responders included 37 gastroenterologists, 16 surgeons, 7 pathologists, 6 radiologists, 5 geneticists, 3 oncologists, and two epidemiologists, from 11 countries and four continents.
“The 76 final responders included 37 gastroenterologists, 16 surgeons, 7 pathologists, 6 radiologists, 5 geneticists, 3 oncologists, and two epidemiologists, from 11 countries and four continents”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataSeventy of the final responders (92%) worked in a university hospital setting.
“70 (92%) worked in a university hospital setting.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingnone givenNo consensus was reached on how to alternate endoscopic ultrasound and MRI/MRCP.
“but no consensus was reached on how to alternate these modalities.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenGermline ATM mutation carriers with one affected first-degree relative are now considered eligible for surveillance.
“Germline ATM mutation carriers with one affected first-degree relative are now considered eligible for surveillance.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
FindingreasoningRecommendations for age and family history for surveillance vary by gene.
“Recommendations for age and family history vary by gene.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe main areas of disagreement included whether and how to perform surveillance for hereditary pancreatitis and how to manage indeterminate lesions.
“Main areas of disagreement included if and how surveillance should be performed for hereditary pancreatitis, and the management of indeterminate lesions.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenAge, family history and germline mutation status are the major criteria for determining eligibility for pancreatic surveillance.
“Age, family history and germline mutation status are the major criteria for determining eligibility for pancreatic surveillance.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
FindingreasoningGermline testing should be considered for individuals eligible for pancreatic cancer surveillance.
“Therefore, germline testing should be considered for individuals eligible for pancreatic cancer surveillance.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [41] Abe, 2019, Deleterious germline mutations are a risk factor for neoplastic progression among high-risk individuals undergoing pancreatic surveillance, J Clin Oncol source
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- cites [42] Konings, 2017, Prevalence and progression of pancreatic cystic precursor lesions differ between groups at high risk of developing pancreatic cancer, Pancreas source
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown dataEighty-two experts completed the first voting round and 76 completed the second, giving an 84% response rate.
“Eighty-two completed the first round, 76 completed the second round (response rate 84%).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataThe experts were divided on whether to begin surveillance at age 50 or age 55 for familial risk.
“but were split on whether to start at age 50 or 55.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingnone givenConsensus on family history recommendations for pancreatic surveillance was the same as in the 2013 guidelines.
“Consensus on family history recommendations for pancreatic surveillance (ie, having at least one first-degree relative and one second-degree relative with pancreatic cancer) were the same as in the 2013 guidelines.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataNinety-one experts met the selection criteria and were invited to vote.
“Ninety-one experts met selection criteria and were invited to vote.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenConsensus was reached for recommending that BRCA1 mutation carriers undergo surveillance.
“but consensus was reached for recommending that BRCA1 mutation carriers undergo surveillance (online supplementary table S2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenFor people with familial risk, the experts agreed that surveillance should not begin before age 50 or 10 years before the youngest affected relative.
“Experts agreed that for those with familial risk, surveillance should start no earlier than age 50 or 10 years earlier than the youngest relative with pancreatic cancer”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenSince the previous consensus, ATM mutation carriers have been added to the list recommended for surveillance.
“Since the previous consensus, ATM mutation carriers have been added to the list recommended for surveillance.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe final responders had practised for a median of 22 years and had been involved in a pancreatic cancer surveillance programme for a median of 10 years.
“They had practised their profession for a median of 22 (IQR 15) years, and had been involved in a pancreatic cancer surveillance programme for a median of 10 (IQR 12) years.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
FindingcitationPancreatic surveillance is recommended for carriers of germline deleterious variants in BRCA2, ATM, BRCA1, PALB2, CDKN2A, STK11, MLH1 and MSH2.
“Pancreatic surveillance is recommended for carriers of germline deleterious variants in cancer susceptibility gene,22–26: BRCA2, ATM, BRCA1, PALB2, CDKN2A, STK11, MLH1 and MSH2.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 5 sources checked- cites [22] Goggins, 1996, Germline BRCA2 gene mutations in patients with apparently sporadic pancreatic carcinomas, Cancer Res
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- cites [23] source
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- cites [24] Jones, 2009, Exomic sequencing identifies PALB2 as a pancreatic cancer susceptibility gene, Science source
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- cites [25] source
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- cites [26] source
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Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenThe experts agreed that the preferred surveillance tests are endoscopic ultrasound and MRI/MRCP.
“Experts agreed that preferred surveillance tests are endoscopic ultrasound and MRI/magnetic retrograde cholangiopancreatography”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenSurveillance is recommended for patients with hereditary pancreatitis, with most experts recommending age 40 or 20 years after the first pancreatitis attack, irrespective of gene status.
“Surveillance is recommended for patients with hereditary pancreatitis, with most experts recommending age 40 or 20 years after the first pancreatitis attack (online supplementary table S2), irrespective of gene status.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingown dataThe expert panel reached consensus on 55 statements.
“Consensus was reached on 55 statements.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenThe main targets of surveillance remained the same: high-grade dysplastic precursor lesions and T1N0M0 pancreatic cancer.
“The main goals of surveillance (to identify high-grade dysplastic precursor lesions and T1N0M0 pancreatic cancer) remained unchanged.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Findingnone givenConsensus on family history criteria for BRCA1 mutation carriers was not reached.
“Consensus on family history criteria for BRCA1 mutation carriers was not reached (table 1)”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenThere was no consensus that the age at which surveillance begins should be modified for high-risk individuals who smoke.
“There was no consensus that the age at which surveillance begins should be modified for high-risk individuals who smoke.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenWhen to initiate pancreatic surveillance for these mutation carriers did not reach consensus.
“When to initiate pancreatic surveillance for these mutation carriers did not reach consensus (online supplementary table S2).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenSome experts thought surveillance should begin at age 50, while others thought age 55.
“but some experts thought surveillance should begin at 50, others at age 55.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenSurveillance from age 40 is recommended for CDKN2A mutation carriers.
“surveillance from age 40 is recommended for CDKN2A mutation carriers”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenThe relative risk of pancreatic cancer among smokers is not considered sufficiently high to recommend surveillance in the absence of other risk factors.
“The relative risk of pancreatic cancer among smokers is not considered sufficiently high to recommend surveillance in the absence of other risk factors.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenRecent NCCN guidelines recommend offering gene testing for patients with newly diagnosed pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, but this recommendation did not reach consensus among CAPS experts.
“Recent National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guidelines recommend offering gene testing for patients with newly diagnosed pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma; this recommendation did not reach consensus among CAPS experts”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.
Findingnone givenPedigrees are often small and family histories incomplete.
“pedigrees are often small and family histories incomplete.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenFor individuals meeting familial risk criteria without a defined genetic mutation, consensus was that surveillance should begin at age 50 or later.
“For individuals who meet familial risk criteria (without a defined genetic mutation) the consensus was that surveillance should begin at age 50 or later”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Findingnone givenFor mutation carriers with a deleterious germline variant, the recommended age to initiate surveillance is generally age 50 for BRCA2, ATM and PALB2.
“For mutation carriers, with a deleterious germline variant, the recommended age to initiate surveillance is generally age 50 (BRCA2, ATM, PALB2)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenVoting was anonymous.
“Voting was anonymous.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductcitationThe guideline update used a modified Delphi approach.
“Guideline development used a modified Delphi approach.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [13] Boulkedid, 2011, Using and reporting the Delphi method for selecting healthcare quality indicators: a systematic review, PLoS One source
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Study design and conductnone givenNon-votes were excluded from consensus tabulations.
“Non-votes were not included in consensus tabulations.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductcitationThe strength of consensus was graded using GRADE definitions.
“Strength of consensus was based on Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE)14 definitions”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [14] Schünemann, 2003, Letters, numbers, symbols and words: how to communicate grades of evidence and recommendations, CMAJ
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Study design and conductnone givenConsensus was defined as at least 75% of experts agreeing or disagreeing.
“Consensus was considered reached if ≥75% agreed or disagreed.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationThe preference for EUS and MRI/MRCP over CT is based on their superiority at detecting subcentimetre pancreatic cysts and on avoiding ionising radiation.
“The preference for EUS and MRI/MRCP rather than CT is based on their superiority at detecting subcentimetre pancreatic cysts, and avoidance of ionising radiation.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [1] source
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Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationCost-effectiveness models for pancreatic surveillance have been published.
“Cost-effectiveness models of pancreatic surveillance have been reported.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [110] Corral, 2019, Cost-effectiveness of pancreatic cancer surveillance in high-risk individuals, Pancreas source
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The paper relies on this without support.
Early detection is the most effective way to improve survival from pancreatic cancer.
“early detection is considered the most effective way to improve survival.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Individuals with a strong family history and/or genetic susceptibility have an increased risk of developing pancreatic cancer that manifests over several decades.
“Individuals with a strong family history and/or genetic susceptibility have an increased risk of developing pancreatic cancer that manifests over several decades.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Emerging technologies such as CT detection of muscle and fat wasting and deep learning for subtle pancreatic changes have not yet been applied in high-risk settings.
“Emerging technologies such as CT detection of muscle and fat wasting as well as subtle changes in the pancreas using deep learning have yet to be applied to the high-risk setting.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The value of glucose monitoring for detecting new-onset diabetes in patients already receiving routine pancreatic imaging is unknown.
“Similarly, the value of glucose monitoring in detecting new-onset diabetes for patients already undergoing routine pancreatic imaging is not known.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Interval advanced-stage pancreatic cancers occur in some patients undergoing regular pancreatic imaging.
“The emergence of interval (ie, presenting before their annual surveillance) advanced-stage pancreatic cancers in some patients under regular pancreatic imaging”
The paper relies on this without support.
The main factors used in clinical practice to assess pancreatic cancer risk in high-risk individuals remain family history, gene mutation status, age, and pancreatic imaging abnormalities.
“The main factors used in clinical practice to assess the risk of pancreatic cancer in high-risk individuals remain family history, gene mutation status, age and pancreatic imaging abnormalities.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Cost-effectiveness model results depend on cost estimates.
“cost-effective model results depend on cost estimates”
The paper relies on this without support.
MRI and EUS costs vary considerably.
“MRI and EUS costs vary considerably.”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Pancreas surveillance has been recommended for individuals estimated to be at high risk of developing PDAC (5% or higher estimated lifetime risk).
“Pancreas surveillance has been recommended for individuals estimated to be at high risk of developing PDAC (5% or higher estimated lifetime risk).5-8”
From The Multicenter Cancer of Pancreas Screening Study: Impact on Stage and Survival (2022) · cites this paper as [6]
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Are BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene mutation patients underscreened for pancreatic adenocarcinoma?
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Deep Learning in Radiology: Now the Real Work Begins
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Self-citation
Flagged first, then by citations
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Pancreatic cancer evolution and heterogeneity: integrating omics and clinical data
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“An international consensus recommends conducting follow-up EUS or MRI annually in individuals with a family history or genetically high risk of pancreatic cancer (20).”
- Authors
- Goggins, M., Overbeek, K. A., Brand, R., Syngal, S., Del Chiaro, M., Bartsch, D. K., Bassi, C., Carrato, A., Farrell, J., Fishman, E. K., Fockens, P., Gress, T. M., van Hooft, J. E., Hruban, R. H., Kastrinos, F., Klein, A., Lennon, A. M., Lucas, A., Park, W., Rustgi, A., Simeone, D., Stoffel, E., Vasen, H. F. A., Cahen, D. L., Canto, M. I., & Bruno, M.
- Affiliations
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- Erasmus MC (NL)
- University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (US)
- Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (US)
- Department of Surgery, Division of Surgical Oncology, Denver, Colorado, USA
- Philipps University of Marburg (DE)
- University of Verona (IT)
- Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal (ES)
- Yale University (US)
- The Russell H Morgan Department of Radiology and Radiological Science, Baltimore, Maryland, USA
- Amsterdam Gastroenterology Endocrinology Metabolism (NL)
- Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Amsterdam University Medical Centres, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
- Columbia University Irving Medical Center (US)
- Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai (US)
- Columbia University (US)
- NYU Langone Health (US)
- University of Michigan (US)
- Leiden University (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Goggins, Michael
- ORCID
- Goggins, Michael
- Overbeek, Kasper Alexander
- Brand, Randall
- Syngal, Sapna
- Bartsch, Detlef K
- Carrato, Alfredo
- Farrell, James
- Fishman, Elliot K
- Fockens, Paul
- Gress, Thomas M
- Hruban, R H
- Kastrinos, Fay
- Lennon, Anne Marie
- Lucas, Aimee
- Park, Walter
- Rustgi, Anil
- Simeone, Diane
- Stoffel, Elena
- Vasen, Hans F A
- Cahen, Djuna L
- Canto, Marcia Irene
- Bruno, Marco
- Venue
- Gut
- Publisher
- BMJ
- Published
- 2019-10-31
- Volume
- 69
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 7-17
- ISSN
- 0017-5749 (ISSN-L)
- 1468-3288
- PMC
- PMC7295005
- OpenAlex
- W2982364478
- Cited by
- 659
- References
- 113
- Citations by year
- 2026: 87 · 2025: 100 · 2024: 107 · 2023: 99 · 2022: 112 · 2021: 106 · 2020: 46 · 2019: 1 · 2018: 1
- FWCI
- 27.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Gut (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (publishedVersion)
- Pure Amsterdam UMC (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- EUR Research Repository (Erasmus University Rotterdam) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Leiden Repository (Leiden University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc)
- Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca - Università Vita-Salute San Raffaele (submittedVersion)
- HighWire Press Open Archive (submittedVersion)
- VUBIR (Vrije Universiteit Brussel) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Cancer Institute (CA210170)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Pancreatic and Hepatic Oncology Research
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Pancreatitis Pathology and Treatment
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Pathology and Forensic Medicine › Genetic factors in colorectal cancer
- Keywords
- pancreatic cancer, familial pancreatic cancer, high-risk individuals, cancer surveillance, germline mutations, hereditary pancreatitis, pancreatic precursor lesions, endoscopic ultrasound, indeterminate lesions, consensus recommendations
- MeSH terms
- Age Factors, Carcinoma, Humans, Mass Screening, Pancreatic Neoplasms, Population Surveillance, Risk Factors, Germ-Line Mutation, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Biomedical Research, Early Detection of Cancer
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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