Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments

Kruger, Justin; Dunning, David

doi:10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121

Cited by 7,731Decision-Making and Behavioral EconomicsPersonality Traits and PsychologyMemory Processes and Influences

Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments

Kruger, Justin, Dunning, David·1999·Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

DOI 10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121

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Abstract

People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains. The authors suggest that this overestimation occurs, in part, because people who are unskilled in these domains suffer a dual burden: Not only do these people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it. Across 4 studies, the authors found that participants scoring in the bottom quartile on tests of humor, grammar, and logic grossly overestimated their test performance and ability. Although their test scores put them in the 12th percentile, they estimated themselves to be in the 62nd. Several analyses linked this miscalibration to deficits in metacognitive skill, or the capacity to distinguish accuracy from error. Paradoxically, improving the skills of participants, and thus increasing their metacognitive competence, helped them recognize the limitations of their abilities.

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Kruger and Dunning (76) demonstrated that individuals with limited competence in a given domain tend to lack awareness of that very limitation, resulting in systematic self-assessment inflation.
“This pattern is consistent with the metacognitive model formulated by Kruger and Dunning (76), who demonstrated that individuals with limited competence in a given domain tend to lack awareness of that very limitation, resulting in systematic self-assessment inflation.”
From Health misinformation, digital health literacy, and attitudes toward science among university students: an exploratory cross-sectional survey (2026) · cites this paper as [76]
The finding that middle performers show the largest metacognitive disconnect is inconsistent with previous studies that identified low-performing students as demonstrating the most significant metacognitive disconnect due to the Dunning-Kruger effect.
“which is inconsistent with previous studies that have identified low- performing students as demonstrating the most significant metacognitive disconnect due to the Dunning- Kruger effect (Kruger & Dunning,1999; Ehrlinger et al.,2008; Sawdon & Finn,2014; Steuber et al.,2017).”
From Promoting metacognition in an allied health anatomy course (2023) · cites this paper as Kruger & Dunning,1999
The decline in performance of human-AI teams when tackling tasks of medium complexity suggests that users may have faced challenges in accurately assessing their own abilities and the capabilities of AI systems, primarily by overestimating their own abilities.
“The decline in performance of human-AI teams when tackling tasks of medium complexity suggests that users may have faced challenges in accurately assessing their own abilities and the capabilities of AI systems, primarily by overestimating their own abilities [64].”
From Dealing with Uncertainty: Understanding the Impact of Prognostic Versus Diagnostic Tasks on Trust and Reliance in Human-AI Decision Making (2024) · cites this paper as [64]
Psychological evidence suggests that individuals who do not know much about a subject tend not to recognize their ignorance and therefore typically fail to seek better information.
“By contrast, this literature suggests that individuals who do not know much about a subject tend not to recognize their ignorance and therefore typically fail to seek better information (Kruger and Dunning 1999).”
From Financial literacy, financial advice, and financial behavior (2017) · cites this paper as Kruger and Dunning 1999
Media literacy has long focused on personal responsibility, which can imbue individuals with a false sense of confidence in their skills and put the onus of monitoring media effects on the audience rather than media creators, social media platforms, or regulators.
“Media literacy has long focused on personal responsibility, which can not only imbue individuals with a false sense of confidence in their skills (Sanchez & Dunning, 2018; Kruger & Dunning, 1999), but put the onus of monitoring media effects on the audience, rather than media creators, social media platforms, or regulators.”
From The Promises, Challenges, and Futures of Media Literacy (2018) · cites this paper as Kruger & Dunning, 1999

The small proportions of participants whose scores did not change or decreased from pre- to post-test were likely due to initial overconfidence bias and post-test overcorrection from the Dunning-Kruger effect.
“This was likely observed in the small proportions of participants whose scores did not change or decreased from pre- to post-test.”
From Development and evaluation of virtual simulation games to increase the confidence and self-efficacy of healthcare learners in vaccine communication, advocacy, and promotion (2024) · cites this paper as [23]
Kruger and Dunning (1999) report that worst-performing subjects on a variety of tests showed a bigger discrepancy between actual performance and a one-shot rating than better performers.
“Kruger and Dunning (1999) report a series of experiments in which the worst-performing subjects on a variety of tests showed a bigger discrepancy between actual performance and a one-shot rating than the better performers.”
From How to measure metacognition (2014) · cites this paper as Kruger and Dunning (1999)
The double curse means that people who lack the skills to produce right answers also lack the ability to judge whether their own answers and those of other people are right.
“This double curse means that those people who lack the skills to produce the right answers likewise lack the ability to judge whether their own answers (and those of other people) are in fact right.”
From The Exam Autopsy: An Integrated Post-Exam Assessment Model (2019) · cites this paper as Kruger & Dunning, 1999
Concerns have been raised about the validity and reliability of self-assessments as true indicators of student ability and progress.
“Yet concerns have been raised as to the validity and reliability of self-assessments as true indicators of student ability and progress (Dunn & Mulvenon, 2009;Kruger & Dunning, 1999;Ross, 2006)”
From The Exam Autopsy: An Integrated Post-Exam Assessment Model (2019) · cites this paper as Kruger & Dunning, 1999
Students may not know enough to gauge their own ignorance or incompetence, and consequently self-assessments may be insufficient as self-monitoring tools.
“in other words, students may not know enough to be able to gauge their own ignorance or incompetence, and consequently these may be insufficient as self-monitoring tools.”
From The Exam Autopsy: An Integrated Post-Exam Assessment Model (2019) · cites this paper as Kruger & Dunning, 1999
Building monitoring skills improves self-evaluations and achievement among struggling students.
“They found that building monitoring skills improved self-evaluations and achievement among struggling students.”
From The Potential of Exam Wrappers in Higher Education Assessment Practice: Fostering Self-Efficacy Through Guided Self-Reflection (2025) · cites this paper as Kruger and Dunning (1999)
Poor performers are typically least accurate in appraising their abilities.
“Kruger and Dunning (1999) extended these findings, showing that poor performers are typically least accurate in appraising their abilities.”
From The Potential of Exam Wrappers in Higher Education Assessment Practice: Fostering Self-Efficacy Through Guided Self-Reflection (2025) · cites this paper as Kruger and Dunning (1999)
Performance gains often occur without altering individuals' self-perceptions; the two become aligned because performance increases to meet perceptions.
“performance gains often occur without altering individuals’ self-perceptions, the two becoming aligned because performance increases to meet perceptions.”
From Factors influencing responsiveness to feedback: On the interplay between fear, confidence, and reasoning processes. (2012) · cites this paper as Kruger and Dunning’s (1999)
Generative-AI use can increase perceived efficiency or self-efficacy while simultaneously strengthening technological dependence or false self-efficacy.
“Studies of university students also indicate a paradoxical pattern in which generative-AI use can increase perceived efficiency or self-efficacy while simultaneously strengthening technological dependence or false self-efficacy (Zhang and Xu, 2025; Jia et al., 2025; Kruger and Dunning, 1999).”
From College students' metacognitive awareness of generative-AI reliance: an experimental study of decision confidence and attribution bias (2026) · cites this paper as Kruger and Dunning, 1999

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Authors: Kruger, J., & Dunning, D.
Affiliations: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (US)
Cornell University (US)
ORCID: Kruger, Justin
Dunning, David
Venue: Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
Publisher: American Psychological Association (APA)
Published: 1999
Volume: 77
Issue: 6
Pages: 1121-1134
ISSN: 0022-3514 (ISSN-L)
1939-1315
DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121
OpenAlex: W2146006411
Cited by: 7,731
References: 56
Citations by year: 2026: 683 · 2025: 606 · 2024: 570 · 2023: 606 · 2022: 549 · 2021: 599 · 2020: 556 · 2019: 549 · 2018: 414 · 2017: 335 · 2016: 288 · 2015: 312 · 2014: 209 · 2013: 203 · 2012: 206
FWCI: 20.43
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders: U.S. Public Health Service (R01-56072)
Topics: Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › General Decision Sciences › Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics
Social Sciences › Psychology › Clinical Psychology › Personality Traits and Psychology
Life Sciences › Neuroscience › Cognitive Neuroscience › Memory Processes and Influences
Keywords: overconfidence, self-assessment, metacognition, metacognitive skills, self-knowledge, overestimation of ability, metacognitive calibration, grammar, logic, skill deficits, self-awareness
MeSH terms: Cognition, Female, Humans, Intelligence, Language, Logic, Male, Problem Solving, Surveys and Questionnaires, Self-Assessment, Self Concept, Social Perception

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Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments

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