Clinical risk factors for age-related macular degeneration: a systematic review and meta-analysis
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the leading cause of blindness in Western countries. Numerous risk factors have been reported but the evidence and strength of association is variable. We aimed to identify those risk factors with strong levels of evidence which could be easily assessed by physicians or ophthalmologists to implement preventive interventions or address current behaviours. METHODS: A systematic review identified 18 prospective and cross-sectional studies and 6 case control studies involving 113,780 persons with 17,236 cases of late AMD that included an estimate of the association between late AMD and at least one of 16 pre-selected risk factors. Fixed-effects meta-analyses were conducted for each factor to combine odds ratio (OR) and/or relative risk (RR) outcomes across studies by study design. Overall raw point estimates of each risk factor and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: Increasing age, current cigarette smoking, previous cataract surgery, and a family history of AMD showed strong and consistent associations with late AMD. Risk factors with moderate and consistent associations were higher body mass index, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and higher plasma fibrinogen. Risk factors with weaker and inconsistent associations were gender, ethnicity, diabetes, iris colour, history of cerebrovascular disease, and serum total and HDL cholesterol and triglyceride levels. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking, previous cataract surgery and a family history of AMD are consistent risk factors for AMD. Cardiovascular risk factors are also associated with AMD. Knowledge of these risk factors that may be easily assessed by physicians and general ophthalmologists may assist in identification and appropriate referral of persons at risk of AMD.
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Written from the paper’s full text.
TL;DR
This systematic review and meta-analysis found increasing age, current smoking, previous cataract surgery, and family history of AMD were strong and consistent risk factors for late AMD, with cardiovascular/metabolic factors showing moderate associations. It synthesizes 45 retained articles to identify risk factors that can be assessed by primary care physicians and general ophthalmologists.
Key findings
- Strong and consistent associations with late AMD were reported for increasing age, current cigarette smoking, previous cataract surgery, and family history of AMD. Smoking: prospective RR 1.86 (95% CI 1.27–2.73), cross-sectional OR 3.58 (2.68–4.79), case-control OR 1.78 (1.52–2.09). Cataract surgery: prospective RR 3.05 (2.05–4.55), cross-sectional OR 1.59 (1.08–2.34), case-control OR 1.54 (1.24–1.91). Family history: cross-sectional OR 3.95 (1.35–11.54); case-control OR 6.18 (0.98–38.90) in Table 3.
- Moderate and consistent associations were reported for higher BMI (case-control OR 1.52, 1.15–2.00; prospective RR 1.28, 0.98–1.67), history of cardiovascular disease (case-control OR 2.20, 1.49–3.26), hypertension (case-control OR 1.48, 1.22–1.78), and higher plasma fibrinogen (cross-sectional OR 1.45, 1.22–1.73).
- Weaker and inconsistent associations were reported for gender, ethnicity, diabetes, iris colour, history of cerebrovascular disease, and serum total and HDL cholesterol and triglyceride levels. Diabetes was significant in prospective studies (RR 1.66, 1.05–2.63) but not in cross-sectional or case-control analyses.
- Increasing age was strongly associated with late AMD in all studies; prevalence rose with age, e.g. 12.0% in the ≥80-year Blue Mountains white cohort (Table 4).
Methods
- Systematic review and meta-analysis of 16 pre-selected risk factors considered readily measured in nonspecialist settings; ocular, genetic, and nutritional factors were excluded. Searches were conducted in Medline and Cochrane, completed 28 February 2007 and repeated November 2008; 295 references were initially yielded, 147 articles were assessed, 70 fulfilled eligibility criteria, and 45 articles were retained.
- Included prospective cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies reporting an OR or RR between late AMD and at least one risk factor; adjusted estimates were selected. Fixed-effects meta-analyses were used unless heterogeneity was present (I² p<0.10), in which case random-effects models were used; funnel plots explored publication bias.
- The abstract reports 18 prospective and cross-sectional studies and 6 case-control studies involving 113,780 persons with 17,236 late AMD cases; the Results section reports 18 prospective/cross-sectional and 8 case-control studies contributing 94,058 patients and 3,178 late AMD cases.
Limitations
- The paper states that appropriateness or completeness of adjustment could not be ascertained; some data were crude and subject to measurement error (e.g. “history of cardiovascular disease” spanning asymptomatic angina to myocardial infarction), likely diluting effects. It excluded ocular factors, dietary factors, and genetic factors; included only English-language articles; searched only Medline and Cochrane (not EMBASE); and notes that prognostic use requires further research, with generally small observed odds ratios and limited preventive interventions.
- Evident from the text: study counts and sample sizes are inconsistent between the abstract and Results (113,780 persons/17,236 cases and 6 case-control studies vs 94,058 patients/3,178 cases and 8 case-control studies), and the family-history confidence interval in the narrative (1.94–6.61) differs from Table 3 (0.98–38.90).
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Claims the paper makes
0 of 31 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged
- Findingown data
History of cardiovascular disease is not significantly associated with late AMD in prospective and cross-sectional studies.
“No significant association was found in the prospective cohort and the cross-sectional studies (RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.92 - 1.63 and OR 1.12; 95% CI 0.86 - 1.47).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
History of cardiovascular disease is associated with approximately double the odds of late AMD in case-control studies (OR 2.20; 95% CI 1.48 - 3.26).
“A significant association was observed in the case control studies, with around double the odds of late AMD in individuals with cardiovascular disease (OR 2.20; 95% CI 1.48 - 3.26) (Figure 12).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
An AMD family history is a strong and consistent risk factor for late AMD.
“Our systematic review and meta-analysis identified four strong and consistent risk factors for late AMD (increasing age, current smoking, previous cataract surgery and an AMD family history)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Based only on US data, people of European origin were at increased risk of late AMD compared to other ethnic groups.
“based only on US data, people of European origin were at increased risk compared to other ethnic groups”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Cross-sectional or case-control studies did not show a significant association between diabetes and late AMD.
“this was not significant in the cross-sectional or case-control studies”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
- Findingcitation
Increasing age is strongly associated with late AMD.
“All studies found a strong association with increasing age (Table 4 and Figure 2) [31,74].”
- Also stated in: § Results · boosted
“Increasing age, current cigarette smoking, previous cataract surgery, and a family history of AMD showed strong and consistent associations with late AMD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [31] Kawasaki R, Wang JJ, Aung T, Tan DT, Mitchell P, Sandar M, et al: Prevalence of age-related macular degeneration in a Malay population: the Singapore Malay Eye Study. Ophthalmology. 2008, 115: 1735-41. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2008.02.012. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [74] Varma R, Ying-Lai M, Francis BA, Nguyen BB, Deneen J, Wilson MR, et al: Prevalence of open-angle glaucoma and ocular hypertension in Latinos: the Los Angeles Latino Eye Study. Ophthalmology. 2004, 111: 1439-48. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2004.01.025. source
Not checked in the free run.
- Also stated in: § Results · boosted
- Findingown data
Previous cataract surgery is strongly and consistently associated with late AMD.
“Analysis of the prospective cohort studies showed that previous cataract surgery is a strong risk factor for neovascular AMD (RR 3.05; CI 2.05 - 4.55).”
- Also stated in: § Results · boosted
“Increasing age, current cigarette smoking, previous cataract surgery, and a family history of AMD showed strong and consistent associations with late AMD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Results · boosted
- Findingcitation
The prospective study estimate did not support a significant association between plasma fibrinogen and late AMD (OR 1.03; 95% CI 0.81 - 1.32).
“There was only one estimate from a prospective study [46] and it did not support this finding (OR 1.03; 95% CI 0.81 - 1.32) of significance in the cross-sectional studies (Figure 14).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [46] Tan JS, Mitchell P, Smith W, Wang JJ: Cardiovascular Risk Factors and the Long-term Incidence of Age-Related Macular Degeneration The Blue Mountains Eye Study. Ophthalmology. 2007, 114: 1143-50. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2006.09.033. source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data
Hypertension is not significantly associated with late AMD in prospective and cross-sectional studies.
“None of the analyses showed statistically significant associations (prospective cohort RR 1.02; 95% CI 0.77 - 1.35; cross-sectional studies OR 1.15; 95% CI: 0.88 - 1.51).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Current smoking is a strong and consistent risk factor for late AMD.
“Our systematic review and meta-analysis identified four strong and consistent risk factors for late AMD (increasing age, current smoking, previous cataract surgery and an AMD family history)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Increasing age is a strong and consistent risk factor for late AMD.
“Our systematic review and meta-analysis identified four strong and consistent risk factors for late AMD (increasing age, current smoking, previous cataract surgery and an AMD family history)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
In case-control studies, the pooled estimate for cardiovascular disease was statistically significant (OR 2.20; 95% CI 1.49-3.26).
“the pooled estimates for case-control studies were statistically significant for both cardiovascular disease (OR 2.20; 95% CI 1.49 - 3.26) and hypertension (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.22 - 1.78).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Serum triglycerides are not associated with late AMD.
“Neither the two prospective cohort studies [27,46] (RR 1.0; 95% CI 0.77 - 1.30) nor the cross-sectional studies[28,52,60] (OR 1.08; 95% CI 0.89 - 1.30), found an association between serum triglycerides and late AMD (data not shown).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 5 sources checked- cites [27] Buch H, Nielsen NV, Vinding T, Jensen GB, Prause JU, la Cour M: 14-year incidence, progression, and visual morbidity of age-related maculopathy: the Copenhagen City Eye Study. Ophthalmology. 2005, 112: 787-98. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2004.11.040. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [46] Tan JS, Mitchell P, Smith W, Wang JJ: Cardiovascular Risk Factors and the Long-term Incidence of Age-Related Macular Degeneration The Blue Mountains Eye Study. Ophthalmology. 2007, 114: 1143-50. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2006.09.033. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [28] Cackett P, Wong TY, Aung T, Saw SM, Tay WT, Rochtchina E, et al: Smoking, cardiovascular risk factors, and age-related macular degeneration in Asians: the Singapore Malay Eye Study. Am J Ophthalmol. 2008, 146: 960-7. 10.1016/j.ajo.2008.06.026. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [52] Delcourt C, Michel F, Colvez A, Lacroux A, Delage M, Vernet MH: Associations of cardiovascular disease and its risk factors with age-related macular degeneration: the POLA study. Ophthalmic Epidemiology. 2001, 8: 237-49. 10.1076/opep.8.4.237.1613. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [60] Smith W, Mitchell P, Leeder SR, Wang JJ: Plasma fibrinogen levels, other cardiovascular risk factors, and age-related maculopathy: the Blue Mountains Eye Study. Archives of Ophthalmology. 1998, 116: 583-7. source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data
Higher body mass index (overweight/obese) is associated with increased risk of late AMD in prospective cohort studies (RR 1.28; 95% CI 0.98 - 1.67).
“Analysis of the prospective studies showed an adverse effect of being overweight/obese and the risk of late AMD (RR 1.28; 95% CI 0.98 - 1.67).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Diabetes is not significantly associated with late AMD in cross-sectional studies (OR 1.09; 95% CI 0.61 - 1.92).
“In the cross-sectional estimates that used data from two studies, associations were nonsignificant (OR 1.09; 95% CI 0.61 - 1.92).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In case-control studies, family history of AMD was not significantly associated with late AMD (OR 6.18; 95% CI 1.94 - 6.61).
“Findings from the meta-analysis show an insignificant association between family history and late AMD (OR 6.18; 95% CI 1.94 - 6.61).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
The magnitude of odds ratios for vascular diseases was inconsistent across studies.
“while the magnitude of the ORs were inconsistent across studies”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
Higher body mass index is associated with late AMD in case-control studies (OR 1.52; 95% CI 1.15 - 2.00).
“However, the two case control studies [64,67] did achieve statistical significance (OR 1.52; 95% 1.15 - 2.00) (Figure 9).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 2 sources checked- cites [64] Age-Related Eye Disease Study Research Group: Risk factors associated with age-related macular degeneration. A case-control study in the age-related eye disease study: Age-Related Eye Disease Study Report Number 3. Ophthalmology. 2000, 107: 2224-32. 10.1016/S0161-6420(00)00409-7. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [67] Hogg RE, Woodside JV, Gilchrist SE, Graydon R, Fletcher AE, Chan W, et al: Cardiovascular disease and hypertension are strong risk factors for choroidal neovascularization. Ophthalmology. 2008, 115: 1046-52. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2007.07.031. source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data
Hypertension is significantly associated with late AMD in case-control studies (OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.22 - 1.78).
“The three case control studies did identify a significant association between presence of hypertension and late AMD (OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.22 - 1.78) (Figure 10).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Iris colour (brown vs blue) is not significantly associated with late AMD.
“The meta-analysis of the prospective cohort and cross-sectional studies suggests that darker iris pigmentation (brown vs. blue eyes) is protective, but the overall results were not significant (OR 0.88; 95% CI 0.65 - 1.17 cross-sectional studies and RR 0.98; 95% CI: 0.72 - 1.32 for prospective studies).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
History of cerebrovascular disease is not significantly associated with late AMD in prospective and cross-sectional studies.
“No significant associations were found (RR 1.54; 95% CI 0.82 - 2.90 and OR 1.10, 95%CI 0.69 - 1.75 for the prospective and the cross-sectional studies, respectively).”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingcitation
In a cross-sectional study, family history of AMD was associated with late AMD (OR 3.95; 95% CI 1.35 - 11.54).
“This was supported by findings from a cross-sectional study (OR 3.95. 95% CI 1.35 - 11.54) (Figure 5) [60].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [60] Smith W, Mitchell P, Leeder SR, Wang JJ: Plasma fibrinogen levels, other cardiovascular risk factors, and age-related maculopathy: the Blue Mountains Eye Study. Archives of Ophthalmology. 1998, 116: 583-7. source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data
Previous cataract surgery is a strong and consistent risk factor for late AMD.
“Our systematic review and meta-analysis identified four strong and consistent risk factors for late AMD (increasing age, current smoking, previous cataract surgery and an AMD family history)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Current cigarette smoking is strongly and consistently associated with late AMD.
“Significant increases in AMD risk were seen in all the meta-analyses for current versus never smokers.”
- Also stated in: § Results · boosted
“Increasing age, current cigarette smoking, previous cataract surgery, and a family history of AMD showed strong and consistent associations with late AMD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Also stated in: § Results · boosted
- Findingown data
Prospective studies showed a significant association between diabetes and late AMD.
“while prospective studies showed a significant association”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Many studies included in this review were from non-white populations (e.g., Chinese, Malay Asians).
“many studies included in this review were from non-white populations (e.g., Chinese, Malay Asians)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Increased plasma fibrinogen is associated with increased risk of late AMD in cross-sectional studies (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.22 - 1.73).
“A significant increase in risk of late AMD with increased plasma fibrinogen was observed in two cross-sectional studies [58-60], (OR 1.45; 95% CI 1.22 - 1.73).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 3 sources checked- cites [58] Klein R, Klein BE, Jensen SC, Mares-Perlman JA, Cruickshanks KJ, Palta M: Age-related maculopathy in a multiracial United States population: the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III. Ophthalmology. 1999, 106: 1056-65. 10.1016/S0161-6420(99)90255-5. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [59] Klein R, Knudtson MD, Klein BE, Wong TY, Cotch MF, Liu K, et al: Inflammation, complement factor h, and age-related macular degeneration: the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Ophthalmology. 2008, 115: 1742-9. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2008.03.021. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [60] Smith W, Mitchell P, Leeder SR, Wang JJ: Plasma fibrinogen levels, other cardiovascular risk factors, and age-related maculopathy: the Blue Mountains Eye Study. Archives of Ophthalmology. 1998, 116: 583-7. source
Not checked in the free run.
- Findingown data
White race/ethnicity is not significantly associated with late AMD compared with other races/ethnicities in prospective and cross-sectional studies.
“The OR was 0.91 (0.49 - 1.69) in prospective cohort studies and 1.09 (0.09 - 13.56) in cross-sectional studies for whites versus other races/ethnicities (Figure 4).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Female gender is not significantly associated with late AMD.
“Findings from this analysis suggest that there is no significant association between female gender and late AMD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingown data
Diabetes is associated with increased risk of late AMD in prospective cohort studies (RR 1.66; 95% CI 1.05 - 2.63).
“Based on the data from the prospective cohort studies, the presence of diabetes was associated with an increased risk of late AMD (RR 1.66; 95% CI 1.05 - 2.63).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Findingnone given
The observed odds ratios were generally small.
“The observed odds ratios were generally small”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Findingown data
In case-control studies, the pooled estimate for hypertension was statistically significant (OR 1.48; 95% CI 1.22-1.78).
“the pooled estimates for case-control studies were statistically significant for both cardiovascular disease (OR 2.20; 95% CI 1.49 - 3.26) and hypertension (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.22 - 1.78).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
The data included in some studies may have been too crude and subject to measurement error.
“the data included in some studies may have been too crude and also subject to measurement error”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Our results can be generalisable to different populations in different countries around the world.
“we believe our results can be generalisable to different populations in different countries around the world.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
We did not consider dietary factors (e.g., carotenoids, zinc, antioxidants, fish, omega-3 fatty acids, glycemic index) in the meta-analysis.
“Neither did we consider dietary factors, such as the consumption of vegetables rich in carotenoids (lutein and zeaxanthin) or zinc and antioxidant vitamin supplementation, fish or omega-3 fatty acids in the diet, or glycemic index”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationnone given
The evidence for risks of late AMD associated with other specific ethnic groups is inadequate.
“at present the evidence for risks associated with other specific ethnic groups is inadequate”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Study design and conductreasoning
We did not consider ocular factors (e.g., presence of large drusen) in the meta-analysis.
“we did not consider ocular factors (e.g., presence of large drusen)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
Other significant factors with lower strength of association (risk estimates generally 1.5 or less) were BMI, hypertension, a history of cardiovascular disease and plasma fibrinogen.
“Other significant factors with a lower strength of association (risk estimates generally 1.5 or less) were BMI, hypertension, a history of cardiovascular disease and plasma fibrinogen.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationreasoning
Potential measurement errors would likely dilute effects in the meta-analysis.
“Such potential measurement errors would likely dilute effects in the meta-analysis.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim - Interpretationown data
Cardiovascular risk factors are associated with AMD.
“Cardiovascular risk factors are also associated with AMD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim - Interpretationown data
We further confirmed the association with family history of AMD.
“We further confirmed the association with family history of AMD, consistent with the growing recognition of major genes involved in AMD (e.g., complement factor H and C3, LOCS 3877, HTRA 1) [21,83-86].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 5 sources checked- cites [21] Despriet DD, Klaver CC, Witteman JC, Bergen AA, Kardys I, de Maat MP, et al: Complement factor H polymorphism, complement activators, and risk of age-related macular degeneration. JAMA. 2006, 296: 301-9. 10.1001/jama.296.3.301. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [83] Seddon JM, Francis PJ, George S, Schultz DW, Rosner B, Klein ML: Association of CFH Y402H and LOC387715 A69S with progression of age-related macular degeneration. JAMA. 2007, 297: 1793-800. 10.1001/jama.297.16.1793. source
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- cites [84] Haines JL, Pericak-Vance MA: Rapid dissection of the genetic risk of age-related macular degeneration: achieving the promise of the genomic era. JAMA. 2007, 297: 401-2. 10.1001/jama.297.4.401. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [85] Despriet DD, van Duijn CM, Oostra BA, Uitterlinden AG, Hofman A, Wright AF, et al: Complement component C3 and risk of age-related macular degeneration. Ophthalmology. 2009, 116: 474-80. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2008.09.055. source
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- cites [86] Yates JR, Sepp T, Matharu BK, Khan JC, Thurlby DA, Shahid H, et al: Complement C3 variant and the risk of age-related macular degeneration. N Engl J Med. 2007, 357: 553-61. 10.1056/NEJMoa072618. source
Not checked in the free run.
- May combine two claims. 13
- Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 13
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataHigh BMI is a risk factor for late AMD showing significant and moderate strength of association.
“a further four risk factors showing significant and moderate strength of associations (high BMI, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and plasma fibrinogen)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataSerum total cholesterol and HDL cholesterol are not significantly associated with late AMD.
“The pooled odds ratios and relative risks were non-significant for both serum cholesterol measures.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataThe systematic review included 18 prospective and cross-sectional studies and 8 case control studies, contributing 94,058 patients and 3,178 late AMD cases.
“In total, data from 18 prospective, cross-sectional studies and 8 case control studies [12,24-26,28,30,31,33-47,49-54,57-73] were included in the final analysis, contributing a sample of some 94,058 patients (ranging from 261 to 22,071) including 3,178 (ranging from 8 to 776) late AMD cases.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 10 sources checked- cites [12] Chakravarthy U, Augood C, Bentham GC, De Jong PT, Rahu M, Seland J, et al: Cigarette Smoking and Age-Related Macular Degeneration in the EUREYE Study. Ophthalmology. 2007, 114: 1157-63. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2006.09.022. source
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- cites [24] Wang JJ, Klein R, Smith W, Klein BE, Tomany S, Mitchell P: Cataract surgery and the 5-year incidence of late-stage age-related maculopathy: pooled findings from the Beaver Dam and Blue Mountains eye studies. Ophthalmology. 2003, 110: 1960-7. 10.1016/S0161-6420(03)00816-9. source
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- cites [25] Smith W, Assink J, Klein R, Mitchell P, Klaver CC, Klein BE, et al: Risk factors for age-related macular degeneration: Pooled findings from three continents. Ophthalmology. 2001, 108: 697-704. 10.1016/S0161-6420(00)00580-7. source
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- cites [26] Tomany SC, Wang JJ, Van Leeuwen R, Klein R, Mitchell P, Vingerling JR, et al: Risk factors for incident age-related macular degeneration: pooled findings from 3 continents. Ophthalmology. 2004, 111: 1280-7. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2003.11.010. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [28] Cackett P, Wong TY, Aung T, Saw SM, Tay WT, Rochtchina E, et al: Smoking, cardiovascular risk factors, and age-related macular degeneration in Asians: the Singapore Malay Eye Study. Am J Ophthalmol. 2008, 146: 960-7. 10.1016/j.ajo.2008.06.026. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [30] Kawasaki R, Wang JJ, Ji GJ, Taylor B, Oizumi T, Daimon M, et al: Prevalence and risk factors for age-related macular degeneration in an adult Japanese population: the Funagata study. Ophthalmology. 2008, 115: 1376-81. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2007.11.015. 1381 source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [31] Kawasaki R, Wang JJ, Aung T, Tan DT, Mitchell P, Sandar M, et al: Prevalence of age-related macular degeneration in a Malay population: the Singapore Malay Eye Study. Ophthalmology. 2008, 115: 1735-41. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2008.02.012. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [33] Buch H, Vinding T, la Cour M, Jensen GB, Prause JU, Nielsen NV: Risk factors for age-related maculopathy in a 14-year follow-up study: the Copenhagen City Eye Study. Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica. 2005, 83: 409-18. 10.1111/j.1600-0420.2005.00492.x. source
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- cites [34] Christen WG, Glynn RJ, Manson JE, Ajani UA, Buring JE: A prospective study of cigarette smoking and risk of age-related macular degeneration in men. JAMA. 1996, 276: 1147-51. 10.1001/jama.276.14.1147. source
Not checked in the free run.
- cites [35] Cugati S, Mitchell P, Rochtchina E, Tan AG, Smith W, Wang JJ: Cataract surgery and the 10-year incidence of age-related maculopathy: the Blue Mountains Eye Study. Ophthalmology. 2006, 113: 2020-5. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2006.05.047. source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Findingown dataHypertension is a risk factor for late AMD showing significant and moderate strength of association.
“a further four risk factors showing significant and moderate strength of associations (high BMI, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and plasma fibrinogen)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataPlasma fibrinogen is a risk factor for late AMD showing significant and moderate strength of association.
“a further four risk factors showing significant and moderate strength of associations (high BMI, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and plasma fibrinogen)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Findingown dataHistory of cardiovascular disease is a risk factor for late AMD showing significant and moderate strength of association.
“a further four risk factors showing significant and moderate strength of associations (high BMI, history of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and plasma fibrinogen)”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenWe only included articles identified in the Medline and Cochrane databases.
“we only included articles that were identified in the Medline and Cochrane databases”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenWe could not ascertain the appropriateness or completeness of adjustment in the included studies.
“we could not ascertain the appropriateness or completeness of adjustment in the studies”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
PremisecitationLarge, epidemiological, cohort studies remove temporal or causal ambiguity because exposure precedes disease, and if follow-up is not biased, selection bias is less of a problem than in other study designs.
“Large, epidemiological, cohort studies had the advantage over other study designs in that they removed any temporal or causal ambiguity as the exposure precedes the disease and if follow-up is not biased selection bias is less of a problem than in other study designs [90].”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [90] Wong TY, Hyman L: Population-based studies in ophthalmology. Am J Ophthalmol. 2008, 146: 656-63. 10.1016/j.ajo.2008.07.048. source
Not checked in the free run.
Classified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenWe selected only studies that reported some adjustment for confounding factors.
“we selected only studies that reported some adjustment for confounding factors”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataOur meta-analysis confirmed the increased risks of late AMD associated with advancing age, current cigarette smoking, and previous cataract surgery.
“Our meta-analysis confirmed the increased risks of late AMD associated with advancing age (especially for the oldest age groups of 80 years and over), current cigarette smoking, and previous cataract surgery.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable), S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningIt is unlikely that any relevant articles were missed.
“we feel it is unlikely any relevant articles were missed.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductnone givenStudies reporting only unadjusted results were excluded.
“We did not include studies that reported only the unadjusted results (i.e., crude ORs).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductnone givenThe assessment of the quality of the publications was performed as part of this study.
“the assessment of the quality of the publications was performed as part of this study”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenAll included studies adjusted for age; when multiple adjusted estimates were available, the multivariate adjusted estimate was selected.
“All studies included adjusted for age; when studies reported more than one adjusted estimate, the multivariate adjusted estimate was selected (i.e., if a study reported either age adjusted or age, gender and smoking adjusted results, the latter was chosen).”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
Study design and conductreasoningWe included only English language articles.
“we included only English language articles”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claimMay combine two claims.
InterpretationreasoningSmoking, previous cataract surgery and a family history of AMD are consistent risk factors for AMD.
“Smoking, previous cataract surgery and a family history of AMD are consistent risk factors for AMD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductown dataTwo researchers independently reviewed abstracts and recorded relevant data on a study-specific abstraction form.
“The abstracts of these articles were independently reviewed by two researchers (LP and CE) and relevant data (e.g., study design, risk factor, type of AMD) was recorded on a study-specific abstraction form.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimMay combine two claims.
Interpretationown dataOf the 16 risk factors, age, current smoking, cataract surgery, and potentially family history were strongly and consistently associated with late AMD.
“Of the 16 risk factors identified in our systematic review and meta-analysis, age, current smoking, cataract surgery, and potentially family history were strongly and consistently associated with late AMD.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim. May combine two claims.
Study design and conductnone givenFixed-effects and random-effects meta-analyses were conducted, with model selection based on the reported I-squared value and associated p-value.
“We conducted fixed-effects and random-effects meta-analyses to combine these outcomes across included studies by study design, estimating overall raw point estimates of each risk factor and their associated 95% confidence intervals (CI). The selection of fixed-effects vs. random-effects models was based on the reported I-squared value and associated p-value.”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimClassified as probably not a substantial claim.
Study design and conductreasoningWe decided to present the data based on the type of study design reported in the publication: cohort, cross sectional and case control.
“we decided to present the data based on the type of study design reported in the publication: cohort, cross sectional and case control”
Quote in the paperSubstantial claimProbably not a substantial claim: may not pass S2 (checkable).
InterpretationreasoningKnowledge of these risk factors that may be easily assessed by physicians and general ophthalmologists may assist in identification and appropriate referral of persons at risk of AMD.
“Knowledge of these risk factors that may be easily assessed by physicians and general ophthalmologists may assist in identification and appropriate referral of persons at risk of AMD.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim- Rests on an assumption: The 16 selected risk factors are readily measured in nonspecialist settings.
- Rests on an assumption: The risk factors are easily assessed through discussions with patients and do not entail a lengthy medical history taking or laboratory evaluations.
Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).
PremisecitationThe relationship of cataract surgery and late AMD was previously reported in a pooled analysis of 3 studies in different continents.
“The relationship of cataract surgery and late AMD was previously reported in a pooled analysis of 3 studies in different continents [26].”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked- cites [26] Tomany SC, Wang JJ, Van Leeuwen R, Klein R, Mitchell P, Vingerling JR, et al: Risk factors for incident age-related macular degeneration: pooled findings from 3 continents. Ophthalmology. 2004, 111: 1280-7. 10.1016/j.ophtha.2003.11.010. source
Not checked in the free run.
May combine two claims.
Study design and conductown dataFunnel plots were reviewed and no evidence of publication bias was observed.
“Funnel plots were reviewed and no evidence of publication bias was observed.”
Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
The paper relies on this without support.
The 16 selected risk factors are readily measured in nonspecialist settings.
“Following review by an expert panel (UC, AF, PM, TYW), 16 factors that were considered to be readily measured in nonspecialist settings were selected for the full systematic review.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The risk factors identified as associated with cardiovascular disease are also likely to be measured and monitored in the primary care setting.
“All of these factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and are also likely to be measured and monitored in the primary care setting.”
The paper relies on this without support.
The risk factors are easily assessed through discussions with patients and do not entail a lengthy medical history taking or laboratory evaluations.
“All of these are easily assessed through discussions with patients and do not entail a lengthy medical history taking or laboratory evaluations.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Vascular diseases, including myocardial infarction, stroke, angina, and hypertension, are pathogenic factors for the development of late AMD.
“Vascular diseases, including myocardial infarction, stroke, angina, and hypertension are thought to be pathogenic factors for the development of late AMD.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Genetic testing is not readily available in general clinical practice.
“we felt that genetic testing was not readily available in general clinical practice”
The paper relies on this without support.
Ocular factors (e.g., presence of large drusen) cannot be easily ascertained by family physicians.
“we felt they could not be easily ascertained by family physicians”
The paper relies on this without support.
There are limited interventions to prevent AMD.
“there are limited interventions to prevent AMD”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
AMD has a strong genetic component, with an up to 10-fold increase in risk when a parent or sibling is affected.
“Its strong genetic component, with an up to 10-fold increase in risk when a parent or sibling is affected, makes it one of the most heritable complex diseases [73,74].”
From Bruch’s Membrane: A Key Consideration with Complement-Based Therapies for Age-Related Macular Degeneration (2023) · cites this paper as [73]
Smoking is a significant environmental risk factor for AMD, with the odds ratio for current smokers compared to ex-smokers estimated to be 1.78 (95% CI 1.52-2.09).
“In addition to ageing, smoking is a significant environmental risk factor for AMD, with the odds ratio for current smokers compared to ex-smokers being estimated by one meta-analysis to be 1.78 (95% confidence intervals, 1.52–2.09) [73].”
From Bruch’s Membrane: A Key Consideration with Complement-Based Therapies for Age-Related Macular Degeneration (2023) · cites this paper as [73]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Family-history confidence interval conflicts with Table 3
MajorThe text reports a 95% confidence interval of 1.94-6.61 for the pooled case-control estimate, while Table 3 reports 0.98-38.90 for the same estimate. The text also calls the association insignificant, although its stated interval excludes 1.
“Findings from the meta-analysis show an insignificant association between family history and late AMD (OR 6.18; 95% CI 1.94 - 6.61).”
“| Family History* | 0 | | 1 | 3.95 (1.35 - 11.54) | 2 | 6.18 (0.98 - 38.90)* |”
Mexican-American result is called nonsignificant despite its confidence interval
MajorThe paper says there were no significant differences in NHANES III, but the stated odds ratio for Mexican Americans has a 95% confidence interval entirely below 1.
“In the NHANES III [58], there were no significant differences between Non-Hispanic White, Non-Hispanic Black (OR 0.34, 95%CI 0.10 - 1.18) and Mexican Americans (OR 0.25, 95% CI 0.07 - 0.90).”
“Mexican Americans (OR 0.25, 95% CI 0.07 - 0.90)”
Abstract and results report different study totals
MajorThe abstract reports 6 case-control studies, 113,780 persons, and 17,236 late AMD cases. The Results section reports 8 case-control studies, approximately 94,058 patients, and 3,178 cases for the final analysis.
“18 prospective and cross-sectional studies and 6 case control studies involving 113,780 persons with 17,236 cases of late AMD”
“data from 18 prospective, cross-sectional studies and 8 case control studies [12,24-26,28,30,31,33-47,49-54,57-73] were included in the final analysis, contributing a sample of some 94,058 patients (ranging from 261 to 22,071) including 3,178 (ranging from 8 to 776) late AMD cases.”
Reported race estimate lies outside its confidence interval
MinorThe stated estimate of nearly 15 times the risk is above the reported 95% confidence interval's upper bound of 12.6.
“individuals of Native American ancestry were nearly 15 times more likely to have geographic atrophy (95% CI 1.8 - 12.6) than Latinos.”
“(95% CI 1.8 - 12.6)”
AREDS is classified as both case-control and prospective or cross-sectional
MinorTable 2 includes AREDS among the prospective and cross-sectional studies, but the race/ethnicity section explicitly calls AREDS a case-control study.
“Table: Table 2 Summary of characteristics of the 18 prospective and cross sectional studies | STUDY NAME | LOCATION | DATE OF STUDY | POPULATION | NUMBER OF LATE AMD SUBJECTS | AGE RANGE | % MALE | METHOD OF FUNDUS CAPTURE | METHOD OF CLASSIFICATION | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AREDS [64] | USA | 1992-1998 | 4,519 | 776 | 60-80 | NA | Retinal photo | WARMGS |”
“One case control study (AREDS) [64]”
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“Results In total, data from 18 prospective, cross-sectional studies and 8 case control studies [12,24-26,28,30,31, 33-47,49-54,57-73] were included in the final analysis, contributing a sample of some 94,058 patients (ranging from 261 to 22,071) including 3,178 (ranging from 8 to 776) late AMD cases.”
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“Furthermore, a number of these risk factors (e.g., diet and genetic factors) are not easily measured in routine clinical practice [ 17-21 ].”
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- Van Leeuwen R, Klaver CC, Vingerling JR, Hofman A, De Jong PT: The risk and natural course of age-related maculopathy: follow-up at 6 1/2 years in the Rotterdam study.[erratum appears in Arch Ophthalmol. 2003 Jul;121(7):955]. Archives of Ophthalmology. 2003, 121 (4): 519-26. 10.1001/archopht.121.4.519. · DOI · Paper page
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- Authors
- Chakravarthy, U., Wong, T. Y., Fletcher, A., Piault, E., Evans, C., Zlateva, G., Buggage, R., Pleil, A., & Mitchell, P.
- Affiliations
- Queen's University Belfast (GB)
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Pfizer (United States) (US)
- Novartis (United States) (US)
- The University of Sydney (AU)
- Corresponding author
- Chakravarthy, Usha
- Venue
- BMC Ophthalmology
- Published
- 2010-12
- Volume
- 10
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 31-31
- ISSN
- 1471-2415 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3009619
- OpenAlex
- W2147322584
- Semantic Scholar
- 1a73237caef4a0069d84dbdf668544aea301ac8f
- Cited by
- 842
- References
- 85
- Citations by year
- 2026: 44 · 2025: 60 · 2024: 53 · 2023: 74 · 2022: 67 · 2021: 70 · 2020: 52 · 2019: 42 · 2018: 56 · 2017: 61 · 2016: 38 · 2015: 50 · 2014: 69 · 2013: 43 · 2012: 48
- FWCI
- 6.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- BMC Ophthalmology (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- LSHTM Research Online (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) (acceptedVersion)
- Minerva Access (University of Melbourne) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- National University of Singapore (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Research Portal (Queen's University Belfast) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Pfizer
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Ophthalmology › Retinal Diseases and Treatments
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and Imaging › Retinal Imaging and Analysis
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Ophthalmology and Visual Impairment Studies
- Keywords
- age-related macular degeneration, late AMD, risk factors, cigarette smoking, cataract surgery, family history (medicine), body mass index, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, fibrinogen, age
- MeSH terms
- Aging, Cardiovascular Diseases, Cataract Extraction, Eye Color, Fibrinogen, Humans, Macular Degeneration, Obesity, Risk, Risk Factors, Sex Factors, Smoking, Odds Ratio, Evidence-Based Medicine, Genetic Predisposition to Disease, Racial Groups, Diabetes Complications
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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