Personality Psychology and Economics

In the paper

“These traits in turn are equally predictive of criminal activity.”

What the sources say

• Disputed

  Section 7 says both cognitive and noncognitive abilities matter for crime-related outcomes, but they are not equally predictive. It identifies noncognitive ability as the dominant factor for males’ incarceration and reports a much steeper gradient for noncognitive ability in illegal activities; the passages provide no page number. (LLM, conf=0.90)

  Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“The identification problem deepens when we allow the costs to be psychic costs as in Heckman and Sedlacek [1985], Cunha, Heckman and Navarro [2005], or Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006], and attempt to separate out productivity traits from preference traits.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Heckman and Sedlacek [1985] source
• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Cunha, Heckman and Navarro [2005]
• Partly supported

  Section 9 (Conclusion; page unavailable) discusses psychic costs of schooling and says the authors have not linked their noncognitive measures to conventional preference measures. Section 5 (Interpreting our Model as an Approximation to an Explicit Economic Model; page unavailable) calls the relationship between those measures, preference parameters, and human-capital productivity an open question. These passages support the difficulty of separating preference and productivity traits, but do not say that allowing psychic costs deepens the identification problem. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] show how persons with different endowments of personality and intelligence sort into different occupations and levels of schooling.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  Section 7, “Evidence from the Model” (page unavailable), reports that cognitive and noncognitive abilities affect both white- versus blue-collar occupational choice and schooling decisions. Section 2 also reports that the distributions of both skill measures differ by attained schooling level. These findings support the paraphrase’s description of sorting by personality-related and cognitive abilities. (LLM, conf=0.92)

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] source

In the paper

“As emphasized by Mischel and Shoda [1995] and Roberts and Jackson [2008], situations may change over time as a function of past actions, past situations, investment, information, and the like.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Mischel and Shoda [1995] source
• ?Could not verify

  The Sociogenomic Biology section discusses how environments affect thoughts, feelings, behavior, and personality over time, but does not say that situations change because of past actions, past situations, investment, or information. Searches for those terms and for people changing their environments did not locate a passage establishing the attributed claim; page numbers were unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.69)

  cites Roberts and Jackson [2008] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] and Urzua [2008] demonstrate the importance of correcting for reverse causality arising from schooling affecting traits and traits affecting schooling in interpreting the effects of personality tests on a variety of socioeconomic outcomes.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 2 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] source
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Urzua [2008] source

In the paper

“Generalizing the analysis of Hansen, Heckman and Mullen [2004], Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] allow for lifetime experiences and investments to determine, in part, the coefficients of the factor model and to affect the factor itself.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hansen, Heckman and Mullen [2004] source
• Partly supported

  Section 3 says that schooling at the time of testing affects the factor loadings in test-score equations, supporting the claim about model coefficients. But the same section says the latent factors are fixed by the time individuals make schooling and behavior choices. The paper attributes factors that evolve with investments to a more general model by Cunha and Heckman, not to its own model. No page numbers were supplied in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.90)

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“While research is under way on determining the neural substrates of the Big Five (see Canli [2006] and DeYoung, Hirsh, Shane et al. [2010]), the finding that descriptions of behavior as measured by tests, self-reports, and reports of observers cluster reliably into five groups has not so far been satisfactorily explained by any scientifically grounded theory.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Canli [2006]
• Supported

  The citation is attached to the clause about research into the neural substrates of the Big Five, not to the subsequent claim that no satisfactory explanation exists. The Results report brain-region analyses for the Big Five and findings supporting hypotheses for four traits; the Conclusion describes the study as advancing a theory of their biological roots. (LLM, conf=0.92)

  cites DeYoung, Hirsh, Shane et al. [2010] source

In the paper

“Hansen, Heckman and Mullen [2004], and Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] show how schooling and other acquired traits substantially causally affect measured cognitive and personality test scores.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hansen, Heckman and Mullen [2004] source
• Partly supported

  Section 7 (page unavailable) reports that schooling raises measured cognitive test scores and scores on the Rotter and Rosenberg noncognitive scales; it also rejects the hypothesis that schooling has no effect on either set of measures. The cited paper therefore supports the schooling portion of the claim, but the passages do not establish that other acquired traits substantially cause changes in those scores. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“List [2003] has shown that this effect disappears when agents have market experience.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Introduction reports that the endowment effect becomes negligible among subjects with intense trading experience, supporting the claim for highly experienced agents. But the trading results (p. 65) say a significant endowment effect remained after four rounds of experience, so the paper does not show that it disappears whenever agents have market experience. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  cites List [2003] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“For example, Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] report the effects of percentile changes in cognitive and personality measures on a variety of outcomes over the full range of estimated relationships, relaxing traditional normality or linearity assumptions and not relying directly on measures of variance explained.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 2 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] source

In the paper

“As Figure 12 shows, both higher cognitive and personality traits have strong effects on graduating from a 4-year college at all deciles.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  Section 7, “Evidence from the Model” (page unavailable), says Figure 19 shows strong effects of both cognitive and noncognitive abilities on four-year college graduation. It does not establish that those effects are strong at every decile. (LLM, conf=0.83)

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Figure 11 shows that better adolescent personality traits -as measured by locus of control and self-esteem (traits related to Neuroticism)-increases the probability of graduating from high school (and stopping at high school) for males at the lowest quantiles of the personality distribution.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  Section 7 (Evidence from the Model) states that, for men at the lowest deciles of noncognitive ability, increasing ability raises the probability of graduating from high school and obtaining no further schooling. The scale description in Section 9 identifies self-esteem and locus of control as components of the noncognitive measure. Page numbers are not provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.93)

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] source

In the paper

“Likewise, Duckworth, Tsukayama and May [2010] use longitudinal hierarchical linear models to show that changes in self-control predict subsequent changes in report card grades.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Results section (‘Changes in Self-Control Prospectively Predict GPA’) reports that changes in self-control predicted changes in GPA six months later. The Measures section identifies GPA as overall report card grades, and the Discussion says the finding came from longitudinal HLM growth-curve analyses. (LLM, conf=0.94)

  cites Duckworth, Tsukayama and May [2010] source

In the paper

“Table 11 presents results from the structural model of Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] suggesting that standardized adolescent measures of locus of control and self-esteem predict adult earnings to a similar degree as cognitive ability.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  Section 2 identifies the Rotter locus-of-control and Rosenberg self-esteem scales as measures collected from the NLSY79 youth cohort. The Conclusion (page unavailable) says that, although cognitive skills explain much more of the variance in log wages, their effects on log wages measured by skill gradients are similar to those of noncognitive traits. This supports the citing sentence’s description of the structural-model result; the similarity concerns estimated effects, not variance explained. (LLM, conf=0.87)

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] source

In the paper

“locus of control and self-esteem, two facets of Emotional Stability, predict wages (Judge and Hurst [2007]; Drago [2008]; Duncan and Dunifon [1998]).”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Judge and Hurst [2007] source
• Partly supported

  The Introduction and section 3 report that self-esteem predicts earnings in Drago’s wage analysis. The passage labeled Conclusion also reports a finding from Goldsmith et al. (1997) linking locus of control to wages, but our copy does not identify either trait as a facet of Emotional Stability. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  cites Drago [2008] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Duncan and Dunifon [1998] source

In the paper

“Other studies by Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] and Cattan [2010], using other measures of personality traits, find that the traits affect earnings above and beyond their effects on education and the effects of education on earnings.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  Section 7 (Evidence from the Model; page unavailable) separates the direct effect of noncognitive ability on wages while holding schooling fixed from its effects through schooling. It finds that noncognitive traits are valued in most educational labor markets, though not for male four-year college graduates. (LLM, conf=0.92)

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] source
• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Cattan [2010]

In the paper

“The correlations that were statistically significant at the 5% level or less ranged from 0.06 for the effect of Extraversion on physical activity to 0.12 for the effect of Conscientiousness on self-reported health status.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Results (page unavailable) report a positive association between Extraversion and physical activity and a direct association between Conscientiousness and adult health status. They do not give the claimed correlations of 0.06 and 0.12 or establish that these are the range of correlations significant at the 5% level; health status in the model is also a composite, not solely self-reported health. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  cites Hampson, Goldberg, Vogt et al. [2007] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Conscientiousness (Barrick and Mount [1991]; Ham, Junankar and Wells [2009]), locus of control and self-esteem (Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006]) predict sorting into occupations.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Barrick and Mount [1991] source
• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Ham, Junankar and Wells [2009]
• Supported

  The paper identifies the Rotter Locus of Control and Rosenberg Self-Esteem scales as its noncognitive measures (Table 2B, section 9). It reports that noncognitive ability is an important determinant of white- versus blue-collar occupational choice (section 7). The Heckman et al. citation is attached to locus of control and self-esteem, not conscientiousness. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] source

In the paper

“The gradient is steepest at the high and low quantiles of the distribution.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  Section 7, “Evidence from the Model” (page unavailable), reports that changes in the noncognitive factor affect daily smoking by age 18 and compares their effect with changes in the cognitive factor for men and women. It does not say that the smoking gradient is steepest at the high and low quantiles of the distribution. (LLM, conf=0.83)

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Both the initial level and the growth in hostility (a facet of Neuroticism) throughout elementary school predict cigarette, alcohol, and marijuana use in high school”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Discussion (Hostility as a Predictor of Substance Use) states that both higher initial hostility and increasing hostility during childhood predicted higher cigarette, alcohol, and marijuana use in 9th grade. The study assessed hostility from 1st through 8th grade, spanning elementary and middle school; the claim does not assert that hostility growth predicted growth in substance use during high school. (LLM, conf=0.93)

  cites Hampson, Tildesley, Andrews et al. [2010] source

In the paper

“Krueger and colleagues have recently demonstrated that other moderators also influence the heritability of traits (see Krueger, South, Johnson et al. [2008]).”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Discussion section says genetic contributions to positive emotionality varied with parental Regard and emphasizes the importance of the moderator variable. The Results section likewise reports that genetic and environmental effects on personality varied with parental relationship variables. (LLM, conf=0.92)

  cites Krueger, South, Johnson et al. [2008] source

In the paper

“Lochner and Moretti [2004] and Machin, Marie and Vujić [2010] find that years of education are negatively associated with criminal activities in the US and UK, respectively.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The citation to Lochner and Moretti concerns the US; the UK finding is attributed to a different study. In the Abstract (page unavailable), Lochner and Moretti report that high school graduation reduces incarceration and that their arrest and self-report analyses link this to reduced criminal behavior, supporting the stated negative relationship between education and crime. (LLM, conf=0.90)

  cites Lochner and Moretti [2004] source
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Machin, Marie and Vujić [2010] source

In the paper

“More surprising is that the drug affects personality above and beyond its direct effects on depression.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Results report greater personality change with paroxetine than placebo even after controlling for depression improvement. The Comment says this difference remained when patients were matched on depression improvement, supporting a drug effect beyond improvement in depression. (LLM, conf=0.94)

  cites Tang, DeRubeis, Hollon et al. [2009] source

In the paper

“On measures of self-esteem, an additional year of high school and college play powerful roles.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  Section 7, “Evidence from the Model” (page unavailable), says schooling raises Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale scores across the grades examined. It does not establish that each additional year of high school and college has a powerful effect; the paper groups the higher schooling years in its noncognitive measurement system. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“A few recent studies show that it is possible to alter preferences and personality through experiments that change the brain's chemistry.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Figner, Knoch, Johnson et al. [2010] source
• Partly supported

  The LETTERS section (page not provided) reports that intranasal oxytocin increased investors’ trusting behaviour compared with placebo, supporting the claim that changing brain chemistry can alter behaviour in an experiment. It does not establish a change in personality, or show that preferences generally can be altered. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  cites Kosfeld, Heinrichs, Zak et al. [2005] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“The most dramatic causal effects on cognition arise from college attendance.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  Section 7 (Evidence from the Model; page unavailable) reports that schooling raises measured cognitive test scores, and the Conclusion likewise says schooling raises measured cognitive ability. Neither passage establishes that college attendance produces the most dramatic effects, and the finding concerns measured cognition rather than cognition generally. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  cites Heckman, Stixrud and Urzua [2006] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Similarly, nasal sprays of oxytocin increase trust (distinct from altruism or ability to assess probabilities) in a game-theoretic experiment (Kosfeld, Heinrichs, Zak et al. [2005]).”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Abstract reports increased trust after intranasal oxytocin in a monetary trust game, and the Subjects section specifies that it was administered as a nasal spray. The LETTERS section reports no increase in trustees’ prosocial behaviour and no significant change in investors’ beliefs about likely outcomes, supporting the distinction from altruism and probability judgments. (LLM, conf=0.90)

  cites Kosfeld, Heinrichs, Zak et al. [2005] source

In the paper

“While these studies show that personality can be improved through intervention, a couple of other studies show less promising results when the interventions were targeted at adolescents (Rodríguez-Planas [2010], Holmlund and Silva [2009]).”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Conclusion (p. 34) describes an intervention for disadvantaged high-school youth and reports that it was overall unsuccessful at reducing risky behaviors. That supports citing this study as an example of less promising results from an adolescent-targeted intervention. (LLM, conf=0.91)

  cites Rodríguez-Planas [2010] source
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Holmlund and Silva [2009] source

In the paper

“There is also evidence that targeted intervention efforts delivered to individual children can improve aspects of Conscientiousness.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Abstract and Discussion report that targeted attention training in 4- and 6-year-olds produced more mature executive-attention performance, a capacity the paper relates to effortful control. But the Results tables show no improvement in parent-rated effortful control after training, and the paper does not establish an improvement in Conscientiousness itself. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  cites Rueda et al. [2005] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Stevens et al. [2008] source

In the paper

“For instance, Rueda and colleagues [2005] designed a set of computer exercises to train attention in children between four and six years of age.Children in the intervention group improved in performance on computer tasks of attention relative to children who instead watched interactive videos for a comparable amount of time.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Methods describe computer-based attention exercises for 4- and 6-year-olds and, in Experiments 2 and 3, five-session video controls. The Abstract reports more mature attention-test performance in trained children than in controls. However, the Discussion says the attention-test data alone did not provide sufficient evidence for a specific training effect, so the claim overstates the comparative improvement. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  cites Rueda et al. [2005] sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“The evidence from behavioral genetics shows that measured personality traits are as heritable as cognitive traits.”

In the paper

“For instance, several studies find very low correlations in risk-taking behavior across situations.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites [31]

In the paper

“Yet on a variety of measures of socioeconomic achievement, the treatment group was far more successful than the control group.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites [8]

In the paper

“The annual rate of return to the Perry Program was in the range 6-10% for boys and girls separately.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites [9]

In the paper

“Studies in neuroscience show that alterations in brain structure and function through accidents, disease and by experiments affect measured personality.”

In the paper

“Figure 1 shows that, by age ten, treatment group mean IQs were the same as control group mean IQs.”

In the paper

“Measured personality traits are positively correlated over the life cycle.”

In the paper

“Heckman, Malofeeva, Pinto et al. [2010] show that the personality traits of the participants were beneficially improved in a lasting way.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Heckman, Malofeeva, Pinto et al. [2010]

In the paper

“In practice, as we document below, the requirement of independence of the latent factors across constructs (lack of correlation of tests across clusters) is not easily satisfied.”

In the paper

“The few studies investigating empirical links typically report only simple regressions or correlations without discussing any underlying model.”

In the paper

“One principle finding of our survey, consistent with the claims of the early psychologists cited in Section 2, is that Conscientiousness is the most predictive Big Five trait across many outcomes.”

In the paper

“Measures of personality predict a range of educational outcomes.”

In the paper

“Marginal rates of substitution are often assumed to be generated by only one or two parameters, for example the discount factor and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution.”

In the paper

“People seem to be more accepting of inequality if they believe that it represents a difference earned through effort rather than from differences in exogenously given talent.(See Tausch, Potters and Riedl [2010] for a review.)”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Tausch, Potters and Riedl [2010] source

In the paper

“With this modification, most dictators did not transfer positive amounts to the second player.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites List [2007] source
• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Bardsley [2008]

In the paper

“Further, several studies have found that people tend to be more selfish when the stakes of the game increase”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Carpenter, Verhoogen and Burks [2005]
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Slonim and Roth [1998] source
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Parco, Rapoport and Stein [2002] source

In the paper

“Personality traits are valued differentially across occupations.”

In the paper

“However, other personality measures predict some outcomes.”

In the paper

“If an agent has had an object in his possession for even a short amount of time, it affects how he trades it off against other goods.”

In the paper

“Personality measures also predict a variety of labor market outcomes.”

In the paper

“Additionally, traits related to Neuroticism (e.g.locus of control and self-esteem) predict a variety of labor market outcomes, including job search effort.”

In the paper

“Of the Big Five, Conscientiousness best predicts overall attainment and achievement.”

In the paper

“A growing body of evidence suggests that personality measures-especially those related to Conscientiousness, and, to a lesser extent, Neuroticism-predict a wide range of outcomes.”

In the paper

“Reference point dependence has also been demonstrated in dictator games.”

In the paper

“Conscientiousness predicts college grades to the same degree that SAT scores do.”

In the paper

“Experimental measures of social preferences vary greatly across studies.”

In the paper

“However, people often avoid more than fair small bets.”

In the paper

“Other traits, such as Openness to Experience, predict finer measures of educational attainment, such as attendance and course difficulty.”

In the paper

“Marginal rates of substitution depend on other factors such as education, age, cultural values, etc.”

In the paper

“Numerous studies have shown that most dictators transfer a positive amount, even though they have no monetary incentive to do so.”

In the paper

“A growing body of research finds that personality is associated with educational attainment, suggesting that further study of personality and its determinants might shed light on the recent stagnation in educational attainment.”

In the paper

“Perhaps most conclusively, Duncan and colleagues [2007] analyzed six large, longitudinal datasets and found that school-entry attention skills, measured variously by task and questionnaire measures, prospectively predict achievement test scores, even when controlling for school-entry academic skills.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Duncan and colleagues [2007]

In the paper

“and intelligence is associated with years of education ( 0.55 r  in Neisser, Boodoo, Bouchard et al. [1996]).”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Neisser, Boodoo, Bouchard et al. [1996] source

In the paper

“Supporting the evidence from the GED program that personality plays an important role in explaining educational attainment in adolescence, several prospective studies have shown that facets of Conscientiousness (e.g., self-control, distractibility) and facets of Neuroticism (e.g., internal locus of control) predict successful graduation from high school (Bowman and Matthews [1960;Gough [1964;Hath”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Bowman and Matthews [1960]
• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Gough [1964]
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hathaway, Reynolds and Monachesi [1969] source

In the paper

“Associations between grades and Conscientiousness are almost as large as those between grades and cognitive ability.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Poropat [2009] source

In the paper

“In general, these studies support the conclusions of studies that do not account for halo effects.”

In the paper

“As shown in Section 5, two traits related to Neuroticism, locus of control and self-esteem, explain much of the variance of the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT), an achievement test which is often used as a measure of pure intelligence in studies in economics.”

In the paper

“Similarly, Figure 15 shows that in samples from three New York City middle schools, controlling for IQ, Openness to Experience is associated with Standardized Achievement Test Scores.”

In the paper

“However, at higher quantiles, the probability of stopping education at high school graduation is decreasing in measured personality, because those students continue on to college.”

In the paper

“A notable exception to this trend is Conscientiousness, which has the same association with course grades at all levels.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Poropat [2009] source

In the paper

“In contrast, Vitaro, Brendgen, Larose et al. [2005] examine individuals in a population-based sample of Quebec children and find that kindergarten teacher ratings of hyperactivity-inattention (inversely) predicted completion of high school better than did aggressiveness-opposition.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Vitaro, Brendgen, Larose et al. [2005] source

In the paper

“However, as Figure 9 illustrates, controlling for rudimentary measures of crystallized intelligence and fluid intelligence does not affect the coefficients on the Big Five within the third sample.”

In the paper

“Moving from the lowest decile to the highest decile in the measured personality distribution increases the probability of graduating from college more than a similar change in the cognitive trait distribution.”

In the paper

“Indeed, there is evidence that the association between Conscientiousness and course grades is mediated by positive study habits and attitudes, effort, and prosocial behavior in the classroom.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [187] Fleeson, William (2001). "Toward a Structure-and Process-Integrated View of Personality: Traits as Density Distributions of States." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 80(6): 1011-1027. source

In the paper

“All Big Five traits predict some health outcomes.”

In the paper

“Indeed GED recipients have the same distribution of measured achievement test scores as high school graduates who do not attend college.”

In the paper

“In sum, traits related to Big Five Openness to Experience and Conscientiousness are particularly important in determining how many total years of education individuals complete in their lifetimes.”

In the paper

“Likewise, Fergusson and Horwood [1998] find that teacher and parent ratings of conduct problems at age 8 are negatively related to predicted high school completion at age 18.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Fergusson and Horwood [1998]

In the paper

“Likewise, of the Big Five, Openness to Experience is most consistently associated with fewer contemporaneously measured school absences in seventh grade ( 0.31, 0.01) r p    , tenth grade ( 0.19, 0.01) r p    , and twelfth grade ( 0.27, 0.01) r p    (Lounsbury, Steel, Loveland et al. [2004]).”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Lounsbury, Steel, Loveland et al. [2004] source

In the paper

“Roy Martin and colleagues were among the first to demonstrate that teacher and parent ratings of early childhood persistence, (low) distractibility, and (low) activity prospectively predict both course grades and standardized achievement test scores (see Martin [1989] for a summary).”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Martin [1989]

In the paper

“Attention and early aggression, traits related to Conscientiousness and Agreeableness, are also predictive.”

In the paper

“Conscientiousness is the most robust Big Five predictor of course grades, in terms of raw and partial correlations.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Poropat [2009] source

In the paper

“Two traits related to Neuroticism, locus of control and self-esteem, play a particularly important role for adolescent schooling decisions.”

In the paper

“Openness to Experience, however, is the only Big Five factor with moderate associations with general intelligence ( 0.33 r  in a meta-analysis by Ackerman and Heggestad [1997])”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Ackerman and Heggestad [1997] source

In the paper

“Two of the studies control for cognitive ability and find that the coefficient drops to between 1.4 and 1.5.”

In the paper

“Consistent with this possibility, in a prospective study of an entire cohort of Belgium's medical students, the correlation (corrected for censoring) of Conscientiousness for GPA increased from 0.18 r  in the first year to 0.45 r  in the seventh and final year (Lievens, Dilchert and Ones [2009]).”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Lievens, Dilchert and Ones [2009] source

In the paper

“In a sample of Chinese primary school children, effortful control predicted report card grades when controlling for baseline grades (Zhou, Main and Wang [2010]).”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Zhou, Main and Wang [2010] source

In the paper

“When controlling for basic demographics, a one standard deviation increase in locus of control is associated with a 4.5-6.8percentage point increase in graduating from high school.”

In the paper

“However, GED recipients have noncognitive skills (personality traits) similar to high school dropouts.”

In the paper

“In contrast, internalizing behavior (e.g.depression, anxiousness, withdrawal) and externalizing behaviors (e.g.aggression, hyperactivity, antisocial behavior) at school-entry do not reliably predict standardized achievement test scores.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Duncan and colleagues [2007]

In the paper

“Course grades and standardized test scores are generally highly correlated.”

In the paper

“Table 10 presents results showing that Conscientiousness and SAT scores are similarly predictive of college GPA.”

In the paper

“Of the Big Five, the coefficient on Conscientiousness is the only one that is statistically significant with a lower bound on the 90% credibility value of 0.10.”

In the paper

“It is therefore not surprising that Frey and Detterman [2004] found a correlation of 0.82 r  ( 0.01) p  between SAT scores and performance on the ASVAB, an aptitude and achievement test developed for the United States Army.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Frey and Detterman [2004] source

In the paper

“Willingham, Pollack and Lewis [2002] estimate a raw correlation of 0.62 r  ( 0.01) p  between total grade average and achievement test scores.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Willingham, Pollack and Lewis [2002] source

In the paper

“The power of standardized achievement tests to predict later academic and occupational outcomes is well-established (Kuncel and Hezlett [2007]; Sackett, Borneman and Connelly [2008]; Willingham [1985]).”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Kuncel and Hezlett [2007] source
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Sackett, Borneman and Connelly [2008] source
• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Willingham [1985]

In the paper

“Similarly, high school GPA more powerfully predicts college rank-in-class (Bowen, Chingos and McPherson [2009b];Geiser and Santelices [2007]).”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Bowen, Chingos and McPherson [2009b]
• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Geiser and Santelices [2007]

In the paper

“Nevertheless, cumulative high school GPA predicts graduation from college dramatically better than SAT/ACT scores do, even without adjusting for differences in high school quality (Bowen, Chingos and McPherson [2009b]).”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Bowen, Chingos and McPherson [2009b]

In the paper

“The behaviors used to measure the traits are also determined by factors other than the Big Five traits.”

In the paper

“One cannot (without further information) determine which component of the pair is 1,  or 1,  .”

In the paper

“Failure to adjust for effort produces the kind of variability across situations with different rewards that was much discussed in the person-situation debate.”

In the paper

“Note that even if these problems do not arise, only the pair   1, 1, ,     is identified.”

In the paper

“But in general, even having two (or more) measures of productivity that depend on   1, 1, ,     is not enough to identify the separate components.”

In the paper

“For example, cognitive and personality traits affect earnings capacity because they enhance productivity (see, e.g., Bowles, Gintis and Osborne [2001a])”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Bowles, Gintis and Osborne [2001a]

In the paper

“One needs to standardize for the incentives to exert effort across tasks and differences in the endowments of effort in order to use measurements of performance on tasks to identify traits,  .”

In the paper

“Otherwise, the endowment of effort, and all of the factors that contribute to the exertion of effort, including the reward to the task, j R , will contaminate the estimate of the trait.”

In the paper

“As the reward for activity j , j R , increases, everything else constant, the effort devoted to j will increase.”

In the paper

“A person who exerts more self-control in one task may be less self-controlled in another task.”

In the paper

“Even if one adjusts for effort in a task, and thus adjusts for situational specificity, productivity in a task may depend on multiple traits.”

In the paper

“People with different effort and capability endowments will generally choose different tasks.”

In the paper

“John [1990], Goldberg [1993], and Costa and McCrae [1992a] present evidence that most of the variables used to assess personality traits in academic research in the field of personality psychology can be mapped into one or more of the dimensions of the Big Five.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites John [1990]
• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Goldberg [1993]
• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Costa and McCrae [1992a]

In the paper

“A recent analysis of the Perry Preschool Program shows that traits other than those measured by IQ and achievement tests causally determine life outcomes.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites [4]

In the paper

“If the functional forms of the   • j  and   • j   are known, and the system of equations satisfies a local rank condition, then one can solve for the pair   1, 1, ,     at e  .”

In the paper

“The productivity functions need not be monotone in 1,  or 1,  .”

In the paper

“Moreover, standard measures of cognition are heavily influenced by personality traits and incentives.”

In the paper

“Even if we can measure productivity j P in task j , and only one component of  affects j P , to identify the level of a trait one must control for the level of effort applied to j in order to use j P to infer the level of 1, j  .”

In the paper

“The choice of effort depends on the pattern of complementarity and substitutability.”

In the paper

“This once popular, extreme situationist view is no longer generally accepted in psychology.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites [14]

In the paper

“That is, one must standardize for the effort at a benchmark level, say e  , to use j P to identify a measure of the trait that is uniform across different situations that elicit different levels of effort.”

In the paper

“A dedicated measurement for at least one component is an essential requirement for identification.”

In the paper

“The power of cognitive ability in predicting social and economic success is well documented.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites [2]

In the paper

“This evidence and other evidence shows that something about measured personality is real.”

In the paper

“This extension creates a further identification problem- whether the trait identified arises from its role in costs, productivity, or both.”

In the paper

“Thus two components of  (say 1,  , 1,  ) may determine productivity in task j .Without further information, one cannot infer which of the two traits produces the productivity in j .”

In the paper

“The particular choice of which j to perform depends on the productivity of traits in different tasks.”

In the paper

“For many outcomes, personality measures are just as predictive as cognitive measures, even after controlling for family background and cognition.”

In the paper

“Those situations in turn may influence current actions.”

In the paper

“Parameters that affect subjective well-being but not choices can be identified from the measures of well-being, but not from choices.”

In the paper

“Notice that if elements of v T are augmented over the life cycle through investment and practice, the actions and efforts required to achieve a given task can change.”

In the paper

“Failure to control for situation h , just like failure to control for effort, will contaminate identification of traits using measures of actions or productivities.”

In the paper

“Otherwise for each task one can create a unique factor and the model becomes tautological.”

In the paper

“Investments have dynamic effects.”

In the paper

“A major difference between the two groups comes in the role of investment in producing traits.”

In the paper

“Under specification (12), agents with the same actions, the same efforts, and the same traits may have different productivities.”

In the paper

“Only under separability will one obtain the same marginal effect of  .”

In the paper

“The number of components in n T , L, has to be small relative to J ( L J  ) for the factor model to have any explanatory power.”

In the paper

“Nonetheless, constraints limit their revealed choice behavior.”

In the paper

“As a result of experience (including social interactions), situations, biology (ontogeny), and investment, traits may change over the life cycle.”

In the paper

“The trait theorists do not consider this possibility.”

In the paper

“A special case arises when there are increasing returns to effort in each action.In that case, the agent will simply apply all of his effort j e in task j to the action which gives him the highest productivity, and the other possible actions are not taken.”

In the paper

“Thus, if , v  is enhanced over time, the amount of effort required to perform a task may be reduced.”

In the paper

“This leads directly to the analysis of latent variables and to factor models that underlie much of the analysis of trait psychology.”

In the paper

“Traits are not set in stone.”

In the paper

“A correlation of outcomes across tasks can arise because tasks depend on the same vector of traits.”

In the paper

“Past actions may serve to determine the set of present situations.”

In the paper

“Introducing actions widens the set of data from which one might infer the components of .T”

In the paper

“Several recent studies that apply personality traits to search economics suggest that agents with a higher perception of the control they have over their lives have greater confidence in the arrival of job offers.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites McGee [2010]
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Caliendo, Cobb-Clark and Uhlendorff [2010] source

In the paper

“Notice that if  , i j is separable in T , the marginal effect of personality trait vector  is the same in all situations.”

In the paper

“The measurements and clusters of tests are selected on intuitive grounds or a priori grounds, and not on the basis of any predictive validity in terms of real-world outcomes (for example, success in college, performance on the job, earnings).”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Borsboom, Mellenbergh and van Heerden [2003] source

In the paper

“This approach is problematic if the traits the analyst seeks to identify evolve over time and the contemporary values of traits drive behavior.”

In the paper

“These methods do not address the deeper problem that most of the estimates of”

In the paper

“The factors are estimated to change over the life cycle as a consequence of experience and investment.”

In the paper

“Subconscious motives to see themselves as virtuous may produce the same faking behavior, even when responses are anonymous.”

In the paper

“Cunha, Heckman and Schennach [2010] and Cunha and Heckman [2008] allow for the latent factor to determine investment and experience.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Cunha, Heckman and Schennach [2010]
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Cunha and Heckman [2008] source

In the paper

“This practice trades a reverse causality problem with a version of an errors in variables problem.”

In the paper

“Many psychologists focus on prediction, not causality.91”

In the paper

“Measuring personality traits prior to measuring predicted outcomes does not necessarily solve this problem.”

In the paper

“They use an extension of factor analysis to represent proxies for low-dimensional factors.”

In the paper

“Some evidence suggests that faking has a surprisingly minimal effect on predicting job performance.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Hough, Eaton, Dunnette et al. [1990] source
• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Hough and Ones [2002]
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Ones and Viswesvaran [1998] source

In the paper

“Standard experimental and econometric techniques for inferring causality from within person changes have only recently been applied to generate causal effects of personality. 103”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Cunha, Heckman and Schennach [2010]
• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Heckman, Malofeeva, Pinto et al. [2010]

In the paper

“There are at least two types of false responses: those arising from impression management and those arising from selfdeception (Paulhus [1984]).”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Paulhus [1984] source

In the paper

“As long as there are measurement errors for construct l , there is no limit to the number of proxies for , n l T that will show up as statistically significant predictors of an outcome.”

In the paper

“Such factor analytic studies summarize interindividual variation but do not necessarily inform analysts about the effects of exogenously changing the factor in producing outcomes across individuals.”

In the paper

“The linear factor model does not capture a variety of interesting interactions among traits.”

In the paper

“Outcomes across tasks may be correlated even if the components of n T are not.”

In the paper

“Behaviors, tests, observer reports, and self reports all can be used to proxy the underlying traits.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Groth-Marnat [2009]

In the paper

“For example, individuals who know that their responses on a personality questionnaire will be used to make hiring decisions may deliberately exaggerate their strengths and downplay their weaknesses.”

In the paper

“However, for policy analysis, including analyses of new programs designed to augment the skills of the disadvantaged, causal models are required in order to generate policy counterfactuals.”

In the paper

“This fuels controversy among psychologists advocating competing taxonomies.”

In the paper

“First, all measurements of factor , n l T can claim incremental predictive validity as long as each measurement is subject to error   , 0 q n l   .”

In the paper

“The past decade has seen some convergence of these two research traditions, however, and there is evidence that temperamental differences observed during the preschool years anticipate adult personality and interpersonal functioning decades later (for example, Caspi [2000]; Newman, Caspi, Moffitt et al. [1997]; Shiner and Caspi [2003]).”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Caspi [2000]
• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Newman, Caspi, Moffitt et al. [1997]
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Shiner and Caspi [2003] source

In the paper

“Proxies for , n l T can appear to be separate determinants (or”

In the paper

“Early measures of the traits may be poor proxies for the traits that drive measured current behavior.”

In the paper

“They have independent predictive power from the higher-order factors.”

In the paper

“Structural equation methods have been used to estimate causal relationships using cross-person variation.”

In the paper

“In addition, variations of traits within persons may have very different effects than variations across persons.”

In the paper

“Establishing predictive validity will often be enough to achieve the goal of making personnel assignment and student placement decisions.”

In the paper

“A second problem with this approach to validation is reverse causality.This is especially problematic when interpreting correlations between personality measurements and outcomes.”

In the paper

“For this reason, it is necessary to correct for measurement error in using predictive validity to identify and measure traits.”

In the paper

“They rely on the usual toolkit of simultaneous equations exclusion restrictions to secure identification.102”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Aigner, Hsiao, Kapteyn et al. [1984]

In the paper

“Cunha, Heckman and Schennach [2010] and the papers they cite develop a nonlinear non-normal factor analysis that allows for measurement errors to be correlated across measures and over time.”

What the sources say

• ?Not matched

  Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

  cites Cunha, Heckman and Schennach [2010]

In the paper

“Correcting for faking using scales designed to measure deliberate lying does not seem to improve predictive validity.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites Morgeson, Campion, Dipboye et al. [2007] source

In the paper

“Table 5 summarizes evidence that extrinsic incentives can substantially improve performance on tests of cognitive ability, especially among low-IQ individuals.”