Cited by 2,419Nutritional Studies and DietCardiovascular Health and Risk FactorsCardiac Health and Mental Health

Fruit and vegetable intake and the risk of cardiovascular disease, total cancer and all-cause mortality - a systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies

Open access
Aune, Dagfinn, Giovannucci, Edward, Boffetta, Paolo, Fadnes, Lars T, Keum, NaNa, Norat, Teresa, Greenwood, Darren C, Riboli, Elio +2 more·2017·International Journal of Epidemiology

Abstract

Background: Questions remain about the strength and shape of the dose-response relationship between fruit and vegetable intake and risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer and mortality, and the effects of specific types of fruit and vegetables. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to clarify these associations. Methods: PubMed and Embase were searched up to 29 September 2016. Prospective studies of fruit and vegetable intake and cardiovascular disease, total cancer and all-cause mortality were included. Summary relative risks (RRs) were calculated using a random effects model, and the mortality burden globally was estimated; 95 studies (142 publications) were included. Results: For fruits and vegetables combined, the summary RR per 200 g/day was 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90-0.94, I 2 = 0%, n = 15] for coronary heart disease, 0.84 (95% CI: 0.76-0.92, I 2 = 73%, n = 10) for stroke, 0.92 (95% CI: 0.90-0.95, I 2 = 31%, n = 13) for cardiovascular disease, 0.97 (95% CI: 0.95-0.99, I 2 = 49%, n = 12) for total cancer and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.87-0.93, I 2 = 83%, n = 15) for all-cause mortality. Similar associations were observed for fruits and vegetables separately. Reductions in risk were observed up to 800 g/day for all outcomes except cancer (600 g/day). Inverse associations were observed between the intake of apples and pears, citrus fruits, green leafy vegetables, cruciferous vegetables, and salads and cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality, and between the intake of green-yellow vegetables and cruciferous vegetables and total cancer risk. An estimated 5.6 and 7.8 million premature deaths worldwide in 2013 may be attributable to a fruit and vegetable intake below 500 and 800 g/day, respectively, if the observed associations are causal. Conclusions: Fruit and vegetable intakes were associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer and all-cause mortality. These results support public health recommendations to increase fruit and vegetable intake for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and premature mortality.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of 95 prospective studies found that higher fruit and vegetable intake was associated with lower risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, cardiovascular disease, total cancer, and all-cause mortality. Risk reductions were observed up to 800 g/day for most outcomes but only up to 600 g/day for total cancer.

Key findings

  • For fruits and vegetables combined, summary RRs per 200 g/day were 0.92 (95% CI 0.90–0.94) for coronary heart disease, 0.84 (0.76–0.92) for stroke, 0.92 (0.90–0.95) for cardiovascular disease, 0.97 (0.95–0.99) for total cancer, and 0.90 (0.87–0.93) for all-cause mortality.
  • Reductions in risk were observed up to 800 g/day for all outcomes except total cancer, where no further reductions were observed above 600 g/day.
  • Inverse associations were reported for apples/pears, citrus fruits, green leafy vegetables, cruciferous vegetables, and salads with cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality, and for green-yellow vegetables and cruciferous vegetables with total cancer risk.
  • An estimated 5.6 and 7.8 million premature deaths worldwide in 2013 may be attributable to fruit and vegetable intake below 500 and 800 g/day, respectively, if the observed associations are causal.

Methods

  • Systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies; PubMed and Embase were searched up to 29 September 2016, including 95 studies (142 publications).
  • Summary relative risks were calculated using a random-effects model (DerSimonian and Laird), with linear dose-response analyses using Greenland and Longnecker methods and nonlinear analyses using restricted cubic splines.
  • Attributable fractions were estimated using relative risks from nonlinear dose-response analyses, prevalence data from the World Health Survey, and mortality data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Limitations

  • The paper states heterogeneity was low for coronary heart disease, moderate to high for stroke, cardiovascular disease, and total cancer, and high for all-cause mortality; heterogeneity may reflect differences in populations, follow-up, dietary assessment, and adjustment factors.
  • The paper states residual confounding cannot be entirely excluded, and measurement error and regression dilution bias may have attenuated observed risk estimates.
  • The paper states there were no prospective cohort data from some regions, including Africa, West Asia, South and Latin America, and that attributable-fraction estimates depend on assumptions of causality, lack of confounding, and generalizability.
  • The text also makes evident that subtype analyses often included few studies, with potential for selective reporting and publication of subtypes significantly associated with risk.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1093/ije/dyw319

Cites

323 of 323 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

0 of 12 cited sources checked · 0 supported · 0 flagged

  • Findingown data

    There was a 28% reduction in the relative risk of stroke at 500 g/day of vegetables.

    “28% reduction in the relative risk at 500 g/day of vegetables”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Fruit juice intake was inversely associated with coronary heart disease in the high vs low analysis.

    “apples/pears, citrus fruits, fruit juices, green leafy vegetables, beta-carotene-rich fruits and vegetables and vitamin C-rich fruits and vegetables showed inverse associations with coronary heart disease in the high vs low analysis”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Findingown data

    For vegetables, the summary relative risk per 200 g/day for coronary heart disease was 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.90, I2 = 61%).

    “0.84 (95% CI: 0.79–0.90, I2 = 61%) for vegetables”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    For fruits and vegetables combined, the summary relative risk per 200 g/day for coronary heart disease was 0.92 (95% CI 0.90-0.94, I2 = 0%, n = 15).

    “For fruits and vegetables combined, the summary RR per 200 g/day was 0.92 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90–0.94, I2 = 0%, n = 15] for coronary heart disease”
    • Also stated in: § Coronary heart disease · plain
      “The summary RR per 200 g/day was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.90–0.94, I2 = 0%) for fruits and vegetables”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Findingown data

    Beta-carotene-rich fruit and vegetable intake was inversely associated with coronary heart disease in the high vs low analysis.

    “apples/pears, citrus fruits, fruit juices, green leafy vegetables, beta-carotene-rich fruits and vegetables and vitamin C-rich fruits and vegetables showed inverse associations with coronary heart disease in the high vs low analysis”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims. 31
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 6
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 18
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For fruits, there was a nonlinear association with coronary heart disease (P for nonlinearity < 0.0001), with a 21% reduction in relative risk up to 750-800 g/day.

    “Nonlinear associations were observed for fruits, Pnonlinearity < 0.0001 (Figure 2d, Supplementary Table 9), and vegetables, Pnonlinearity < 0.0001 (Figure 2f, Supplementary Table 9), with most of the reductions in risk observed at the lower levels of intake, and there was a 21% reduction in relative risk up to 750–800 g/day for fruits and a 30% reduction in the relative risk up to 550–600 g/day”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Reductions in risk were observed up to 800 g/day for all outcomes except total cancer, for which no further reductions in risk were observed above 600 g/day.

    “Reductions in risk were observed up to 800 g/day for all outcomes except cancer (600 g/day).”
    • Also stated in: § Key Messages · plain
      “reductions in risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality were observed up to an intake of 800 g/day of fruit and vegetables combined, whereas for total cancer no further reductions in risk were observed above 600 g/day”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For vegetables, there was a nonlinear association with coronary heart disease (P for nonlinearity < 0.0001), with a 30% reduction in relative risk up to 550-600 g/day.

    “Nonlinear associations were observed for fruits, Pnonlinearity < 0.0001 (Figure 2d, Supplementary Table 9), and vegetables, Pnonlinearity < 0.0001 (Figure 2f, Supplementary Table 9), with most of the reductions in risk observed at the lower levels of intake, and there was a 21% reduction in relative risk up to 750–800 g/day for fruits and a 30% reduction in the relative risk up to 550–600 g/day”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    In the analysis of fruits and total cancer and all-cause mortality, there was heterogeneity by adjustment for energy intake, with weaker but still significant associations in studies with such adjustment compared to studies without, Pheterogeneity = 0.03 and 0.02, respectively.

    “In the analysis of fruits and total cancer and all-cause mortality there was heterogeneity (Pheterogeneity = 0.03 and Pheterogeneity = 0.02, respectively) by adjustment for energy intake, with weaker (but still significant) associations in studies with such adjustment compared to studies without such adjustment”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    There was evidence of nonlinearity for fruits and vegetables and total cancer, Pnonlinearity = 0.02.

    “There was evidence of nonlinearity for fruits and vegetables, Pnonlinearity = 0.02 (Figure 5b; Supplementary Table 16), fruits, Pnonlinearity = 0.02 (Figure 5d; Supplementary Table 17), and vegetables, Pnonlinearity = 0.03 (Figure 5f; Supplementary Table 17)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    For ischaemic stroke, the summary relative risk per 200 g/day increase in fruit and vegetable intake combined was 0.92 (95% CI 0.87-0.97, I2 = 9%).

    “The summary RR per 200 g/day was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.87–0.97, I2 = 9%) for fruits and vegetables (Supplementary Figures 7–9, Supplementary Tables 12, 29, available at IJE online)”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    There was suggestion of heterogeneity when studies of vegetables and coronary heart disease were stratified by adjustment for physical activity, with weaker but still significant associations among studies with such adjustment, Pheterogeneity = 0.003.

    “There was suggestion of heterogeneity when studies of vegetables and coronary heart disease were stratified by adjustment for physical activity, with weaker (but still significant) associations among studies with such adjustment, Pheterogeneity = 0.003, compared to studies without such adjustment.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    There was evidence of nonlinearity for fruits and vegetables and all-cause mortality, Pnonlinearity < 0.0001.

    “There was evidence of nonlinearity for fruits and vegetables, Pnonlinearity < 0.0001 (Figure 6b; Supplementary Table 18), fruits, Pnonlinearity < 0.0001 (Figure 6d; Supplementary Table 18), and vegetables, Pnonlinearity < 0.0001 (Figure 6f; Supplementary Table 18), respectively”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    There was evidence of nonlinearity for fruits and total cancer, Pnonlinearity = 0.02.

    “There was evidence of nonlinearity for fruits and vegetables, Pnonlinearity = 0.02 (Figure 5b; Supplementary Table 16), fruits, Pnonlinearity = 0.02 (Figure 5d; Supplementary Table 17), and vegetables, Pnonlinearity = 0.03 (Figure 5f; Supplementary Table 17)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    There was evidence of nonlinearity for vegetables and total cancer, Pnonlinearity = 0.03.

    “There was evidence of nonlinearity for fruits and vegetables, Pnonlinearity = 0.02 (Figure 5b; Supplementary Table 16), fruits, Pnonlinearity = 0.02 (Figure 5d; Supplementary Table 17), and vegetables, Pnonlinearity = 0.03 (Figure 5f; Supplementary Table 17)”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • The quote only partly states this claim.

    Findingown data

    For ischaemic stroke, the summary relative risk per 200 g/day increase in fruit intake was 0.78 (95% CI 0.69-0.89, I2 = 58%).

    “0.78 (95% CI: 0.69–0.89, I2 = 58%) for fruits”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Findingown data

    The systematic review included 95 studies (142 publications).

    “95 studies (142 publications) were included.”
    • Also stated in: § Results · plain
      “A total of 142 publications from 95 unique cohort studies were included in the analyses”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    We found a slightly stronger association between fruit and vegetable intake and all-cause mortality with reductions in risk observed up to 800 g/day, although the reduction in risk was steepest up to 400 g/day.

    “we found a slightly stronger association between fruit and vegetable intake and all-cause mortality with reductions in risk observed up to 800 g/day (or ten servings per day), although the reduction in risk was steepest up to 400 g/day”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Exclusion of studies with a smaller number of cases or deaths or exclusion of outlying studies attenuated the tests for publication bias, but in most cases did not substantially alter the summary estimates.

    “However, we found that exclusion of studies with a smaller number cases or deaths or exclusion of outlying studies attenuated the tests for publication bias, but in most cases did not substantially alter the summary estimates.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Fruit and vegetable intake was as strongly related to overall mortality as it was related to cardiovascular disease, but only modestly associated with cancer.

    “An interesting finding in the present meta-analysis is that fruit and vegetable intake was as strongly related to overall mortality as it was related to cardiovascular disease, but only modestly associated with cancer.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    For fruits and vegetables combined, the lowest risk for total cancer was observed at an intake of 550-600 g/day (7-7.5 servings/day), with little evidence of further reductions in risk with higher intakes.

    “For fruits and vegetables combined the lowest risk was observed at an intake of 550–600 g/day (7–7.5 servings/day) for total cancer, with little evidence of further reductions in risk with higher intakes”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    There was little heterogeneity when studies were stratified by whether the outcome was incidence or mortality of cardiovascular disease or total cancer, although in a few analyses risk estimates were slightly stronger for mortality.

    “There was little heterogeneity when studies were stratified by whether the outcome was incidence or mortality of cardiovascular disease or total cancer, although in a few analyses risk estimates were slightly stronger for mortality”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Many studies adjusted for confounding factors, and we found little evidence that the results varied substantially whether or not adjustment for most of these confounders was done.

    “Many studies adjusted for these and other confounding factors, and we found little evidence that the results varied substantially whether or not adjustment for most of these confounders was done.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Findingown data

    Heterogeneity was low in the analyses of coronary heart disease, moderate to high for stroke, cardiovascular disease and total cancer and high for all-cause mortality.

    “Heterogeneity was low in the analyses of coronary heart disease, moderate to high for stroke, cardiovascular disease and total cancer and high for all-cause mortality.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation

    Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale.

    “Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale which awards 0–9 stars based on the selection, comparability and outcome assessment.82”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [82] Wells

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    These results support public health recommendations to increase fruit and vegetable intake for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and premature mortality.

    “These results support public health recommendations to increase fruit and vegetable intake for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and premature mortality.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The mean (median) study quality scores of studies included in the dose-response analysis were 8.0 (8.0), 7.5 (8.0), and 7.7 (8.0) for fruits and vegetables, fruits, and vegetables and coronary heart disease, respectively.

    “The mean (median) study quality scores of the studies included in the dose-response analysis were 8.0 (8.0), 7.5 (8.0), 7.7 (8.0) for fruits and vegetables, fruits, and vegetables and coronary heart disease, respectively.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation

    Heterogeneity between studies was evaluated using Q and I2 statistics.

    “Heterogeneity between studies was evaluated using Q and I2 statistics.80”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [80] Higgins, 2002, Quantifying heterogeneity in a meta-analysis, Stat Med source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductreasoning

    Subgroup analyses by study characteristics were conducted to explore potential heterogeneity.

    “To explore potential heterogeneity we conducted subgroup analyses by study characteristics.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The respective mean (median) study quality scores were 7.9 (8.0), 7.7 (8.0), and 7.7 (8.0) for stroke; 7.8 (8.0), 7.7 (8.0), and 7.8 (8.0) for cardiovascular disease; 7.9 (8.0), 8.0 (8.0), and 8.1 (8.0) for total cancer; and 7.7 (8.0), 7.1 (7.0), and 7.5 (8.0) for all-cause mortality.

    “The respective means (medians) were 7.9 (8.0), 7.7 (8.0), and 7.7 (8.0) for stroke, 7.8 (8.0), 7.7 (8.0), 7.8 (8.0) for cardiovascular disease, 7.9 (8.0), 8.0 (8.0), and 8.1 (8.0) for total cancer, and 7.7 (8.0), 7.1 (7.0), and 7.5 (8.0) for all-cause mortality.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    An estimated 5.6 and 7.8 million premature deaths worldwide in 2013 may be attributable to a fruit and vegetable intake below 500 and 800 g/day, respectively, if the observed associations are causal.

    “An estimated 5.6 and 7.8 million premature deaths worldwide in 2013 may be attributable to a fruit and vegetable intake below 500 and 800 g/day, respectively, if the observed associations are causal.”
    • Also stated in: § Key Messages · hedged
      “An estimated 5.6 and 7.8 million premature deaths worldwide in 2013 may be attributable to a fruit and vegetable intake below 500 and 800 g/day, respectively, if the observed associations are causal.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The observed associations between fruit and vegetable intake and mortality are causal.
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Fruit and vegetable intakes were associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer and all-cause mortality.

    “Fruit and vegetable intakes were associated with reduced risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer and all-cause mortality.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductnone given

    Data extraction was conducted by D.A. and checked for accuracy by L.T.F. and N.K.

    “The data extraction was conducted by D.A., and was checked for accuracy by L.T.F. and N.K.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation

    The study followed standard criteria for reporting meta-analyses.

    “We followed standard criteria for reporting meta-analyses.69”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [69] Moher, 2009, Preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses: the PRISMA statement, BMJ source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    In analyses of vegetables and all-cause mortality, exclusion of two outlying studies explained the asymmetry in the funnel plots but none of these exclusions materially altered the summary estimates.

    “In the analyses of vegetables and all-cause mortality, exclusion of two outlying studies explained the asymmetry in the funnel plots but none of these exclusions materially altered the summary estimates.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Excluding studies with fewer than 150 or fewer than 200 cases or outlying studies attenuated Egger's test in several analyses but did not materially affect the strength of the associations.

    “excluding studies with < 150 or < 200 cases or outlying studies attenuated Egger’s test in several of the analyses, but did not materially affect the strength of the associations”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductown data

    Sensitivity analyses excluding each study at a time from each analysis were conducted to clarify if the results were robust.

    “We also conducted sensitivity analyses excluding each study at a time from each analysis to clarify if the results were robust.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    Repeating the nonlinear dose-response analyses using fractional polynomial models generally found similar risk estimates compared with the restricted cubic spline models, although confidence intervals were wider and there was more indication of nonlinearity.

    “We also repeated the nonlinear dose-response analyses using fractional polynomial models and in general found similar risk estimates compared with the restricted cubic spline models, although the confidence intervals were wider and there was more indication of nonlinearity”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    In subgroup analyses stratified by duration of follow-up, outcome type, outcome subtype, sex, geographical location, number of cases, study quality and adjustment for confounding factors, the findings persisted across most subgroups and there was little evidence of heterogeneity between most subgroups.

    “In subgroup analyses stratified by duration of follow-up, outcome type (incidence vs mortality), outcome subtype (MI vs. total CHD, or ischemic vs hemorrhagic), sex, geographical location, number of cases, study quality and adjustment for confounding factors, the findings persisted across most subgroups and there was little evidence of heterogeneity between most subgroups”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Study design and conductcitation

    Small-study effects such as publication bias were assessed using Egger's test and by inspection of funnel plots.

    “Small-study effects such as publication bias were assessed using Egger’s test81 and by inspection of the funnel plots.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [81] Egger, 1997, Bias in meta-analysis detected by a simple, graphical test, BMJ source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The authors of six studies were contacted for additional information on fruit and vegetable subtype quantities or data details, and all replied and provided supplementary information.

    “We contacted the authors of six studies16,56,61,64,75,76 for information regarding the quantities of consumption for subtypes of fruits and vegetables or for more details of data which were only briefly described in the text, and all replied and provided supplementary information.16,56,61,64,75,76”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Confounding might exaggerate the observed associations but measurement errors would most likely tend to attenuate the observed associations.

    “Confounding might exaggerate the observed associations but measurement errors would most likely tend to attenuate the observed associations.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    In the few subgroup analyses where the test for heterogeneity was significant there were often relatively few studies in one of the subgroups, and chance cannot be excluded as an explanation.

    “In the few subgroup analyses where the test for heterogeneity was significant there were often relatively few studies in one of the subgroups, and chance can not be excluded as an explanation.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductown data

    Detailed dose-response analyses allowed us to clarify the strength and shape of the dose-response relationship between fruit and vegetable intake and these outcomes.

    “the detailed dose-response analyses which allowed us to clarify the strength and shape of the dose-response relationship between fruit and vegetable intake and these outcomes.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Premisecitation

    The previous meta-analysis found no further benefit above five servings per day (400 g/day).

    “whereas the previous meta-analysis found no further benefit above five servings per day (400 g/day).41”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [41] Wang, 2014, Fruit and vegetable consumption and mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer: systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies, BMJ source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationreasoning

    The combined number of deaths potentially preventable from coronary heart disease and stroke was larger than for cardiovascular disease, probably because the studies included in each analysis were not the same and because there was a stronger association for stroke mortality than for coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease mortality.

    “(The combined number of deaths potentially preventable from coronary heart disease and stroke was larger than for cardiovascular disease probably because the studies included in each analysis were not the same and because there was a stronger association for stroke mortality than for coronary heart disease and cardiovascular disease mortality).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
    • The authors state this as an assumption: The observed associations between fruit and vegetable intake and the health outcomes are causal.
  • May combine two claims.

    Study design and conductown data

    The analysis included a large number of studies from various geographical locations and a large number of cases and deaths (up to 43 000 coronary heart disease cases, 47 000 stroke cases, 81 000 cardiovascular disease cases, 112 000 cancer cases and >71 000-94 000 deaths among up to 2.1 million participants) which provided increased statistical power to detect significant associations.

    “Strengths of this analysis include the wide search terms used, the large number of studies included from various geographical locations and the large number of cases and deaths (up to 43 000 coronary heart disease cases, 47 000 stroke cases, 81 000 cardiovascular disease cases, 112 000 cancer cases and >71 000–94 000 deaths among up to 2.1 million participants) which provided increased statistical”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The HRs for ischaemic heart disease mortality (per 80 g/day) were 0.97 (95% CI: 0.95-0.99) without correction and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.91-0.99) with correction for measurement error in the EPIC study.

    “and the corresponding HRs for ischaemic heart disease mortality (per 80 g/day) were 0.97 (95% CI: 0.95–0.99) and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.91–0.99),23 respectively, in the EPIC study.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [23] Crowe, 2011, Fruit and vegetable intake and mortality from ischaemic heart disease: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Heart study, Eur Heart J source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationcitation

    Our meta-analysis is in general consistent with previous meta-analyses of fruit and vegetable intake and coronary heart disease, stroke and mortality.

    “Our meta-analysis is in general consistent with previous meta-analyses of fruit and vegetable intake and coronary heart disease,3 stroke4 and mortality,41”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim0 of 3 sources checked
    • cites [3] He, 2007, Increased consumption of fruit and vegetables is related to a reduced risk of coronary heart disease: meta-analysis of cohort studies, J Hum Hypertens source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [4] He, 2006, Fruit and vegetable consumption and stroke: meta-analysis of cohort studies, Lancet source

      Not checked in the free run.

    • cites [41] Wang, 2014, Fruit and vegetable consumption and mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer: systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies, BMJ source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    Both measurement error and regression dilution bias may have attenuated the observed risk estimates.

    “This suggests that both measurement error and regression dilution bias may have attenuated the observed risk estimates.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The observed associations appear to meet several of Bradford-Hill's criteria for causation including consistency of findings in different people and regions (by sex and geographical region), temporality, some evidence of a biological gradient, plausibility, coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings and experimental evidence (on intermediate risk markers).

    “The observed associations appear to meet several of Bradford-Hill’s criteria for causation including consistency of findings in different people and regions (by sex and geographical region), temporality, some evidence of a biological gradient, plausibility, coherence between epidemiological and laboratory findings and experimental evidence (on intermediate risk markers).190”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [190] Bradford Hill, 1965, The environment and disease: association or causation?, Proc R Soc Med

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    The HR for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% CI: 0.96-0.98) per 200 g/day of fruit and vegetable intake without correction for measurement error compared with 0.94 (95% CI: 0.91-0.96) with correction for measurement error in the EPIC study.

    “The HR for all-cause mortality was 0.97 (95% CI: 0.96–0.98) per 200 g/day of fruit and vegetable intake without correction for measurement error compared with 0.94 (95% CI: 0.91–0.96) with correction for measurement error,75”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [75] Leenders, 2013, Fruit and vegetable consumption and mortality: European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition, Am J Epidemiol source

      Not checked in the free run.

  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationown data

    Similar associations were observed when analyses were stratified by geographical regions which have different underlying patterns of diet and other confounding factors, suggesting that unknown confounders are not likely to entirely explain the associations observed.

    “In addition, similar associations were observed when analyses were stratified by geographical regions which have different underlying patterns of diet and other confounding factors, suggesting that unknown confounders are not likely to entirely explain the associations observed.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Study design and conductnone given

    The included studies were of high quality.

    “the high study quality of the included studies”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
49 of 49
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The observed associations between fruit and vegetable intake and mortality are causal.

    “assuming a causal relationship”
    “if the observed associations are causal”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The observed associations between fruit and vegetable intake and the health outcomes are causal.

    “Under the assumption that the observed associations are causal we estimated that the number of premature deaths attributable to a fruit and vegetable intake below 800 g/day in 2013 was 1 340 000 for coronary heart disease, 2 680 000 for stroke, 2 270 000 for cardiovascular disease, 660 000 for cancer and 7 800 000 for all-cause mortality”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    A causal relationship exists between fruit and vegetable intake and coronary heart disease, stroke, cardiovascular disease, total cancer and all-cause mortality.

    “the appropriateness of the estimates of the number of deaths attributable to a fruit and vegetable intake below 500 or 800 g/day is dependent on the validity of several assumptions that were made including that of: (i) a causal relationship between fruit and vegetable intake and these outcomes”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    There is a lack of confounding in the association between fruit and vegetable intake and the outcomes.

    “(ii) lack of confounding”
  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The results can be generalized across populations.

    “(iii) that the results can be generalized across populations.”
5 of 5

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Dietary patterns low in fruits and vegetables are associated with increased risk for major chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease and cancer.

    “Dietary patterns that are low in fruits and vegetables are generally associated with a number of negative health outcomes, including increased risk for major chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease and cancer (Aune et al., 2017).”

    From Waste watchers: A food waste reduction intervention among households in Arizona (2021) · cites this paper as Aune et al., 2017

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.

  • Africa D all-cause percentages and counts imply different death totals

    Major

    For Africa D, 122,406 deaths at 8.9% imply about 1.38 million total deaths, whereas 152,326 deaths at 13.5% imply about 1.13 million. Both columns concern all-cause deaths in the same region and year; rounding cannot account for the difference.

  • Abstract overstates deaths attributable to intake below 500 g/day

    Minor

    The abstract reports 5.6 million premature deaths, but the Results report 5.4 million and Table 7 gives 5,381,962, which rounds to 5.4 million.

2 of 2

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Aune, D., Giovannucci, E., Boffetta, P., Fadnes, L. T., Keum, N., Norat, T., Greenwood, D. C., Riboli, E., Vatten, L. J., & Tonstad, S.
Affiliations
  • Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO)
  • Brigham and Women's Hospital (US)
  • Tisch Cancer Institute (US)
  • University of Bergen (NO)
  • Harvard University (US)
  • Imperial College London (GB)
  • University of Leeds (GB)
  • Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College London, London, UK
  • Oslo University Hospital (NO)
Corresponding author
Aune, Dagfinn
Venue
International Journal of Epidemiology
Published
2017-02-22
Volume
46
Issue
3
Pages
1029-1056
ISSN
  • 0300-5771 (ISSN-L)
  • 1464-3685
OpenAlex
W3006494999
Cited by
2,419
References
323
Citations by year
2026: 169 · 2025: 243 · 2024: 310 · 2023: 286 · 2022: 320 · 2021: 356 · 2020: 343 · 2019: 201 · 2018: 145 · 2017: 44 · 2014: 1
FWCI
19.20
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • International Journal of Epidemiology (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
  • Digital Access to Scholarship at Harvard (DASH) (Harvard University) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • Archivio istituzionale della ricerca (Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna) (submittedVersion)
  • Spiral (Imperial College London) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
Funders
NIH
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Nutritional Studies and Diet
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiovascular Health and Risk Factors
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine › Cardiac Health and Mental Health
Keywords
resting heart rate, cardiovascular disease, coronary artery disease, sudden cardiac death, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, stroke, cancer, all-cause mortality, dose-response relationship, J-shaped association
MeSH terms
Cardiovascular Diseases, Diet, Fruit, Humans, Mortality, Neoplasms, Prospective Studies, Vegetables, Risk Reduction Behavior

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Claims read by deepseek-v4.1-flash under definition version 3 (extract-v3) on 2026-10-10.

Classified by jev-1.13-20260917 (gold-guideline-v0.2) on 2026-10-10.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review