Lower extremity function and subsequent disability: consistency across studies, predictive models, and value of gait speed alone compared with the short physical performance battery
Open accessAbstract
BACKGROUND: Although it has been demonstrated that physical performance measures predict incident disability in previously nondisabled older persons, the available data have not been fully developed to create usable methods for determining risk profiles in community-dwelling populations. Using several populations and different follow-up periods, this study replicates previous findings by using the Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly (EPESE) performance battery and provides equations for the prediction of disability risk according to age, sex, and level of performance. METHODS: Tests of balance, time to walk 8 ft, and time to rise from a chair 5 times were administered to 4,588 initially nondisabled persons in the four sites of the EPESE and to 1,946 initially nondisabled persons in the Hispanic EPESE. Follow-up assessment for activity of daily living (ADL) and mobility-related disability occurred from 1 to 6 years later. RESULTS: In the EPESE, compared with those with the best performance (EPESE summary performance score of 10-12), the relative risks of mobility-related disability for those with scores of 4-6 ranged from 2.9 to 4.9 and the relative risk of disability for those with scores of 7-9 ranged from 1.5 to 2.1, with similar consistent results for ADL disability. The observed rates of incident disability according to performance level in the Hispanic EPESE agreed closely with rates predicted from models developed from the EPESE sites. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that gait speed alone performed almost as well as the full battery in predicting incident disability. CONCLUSIONS: Performance tests of lower extremity function accurately predict disability across diverse populations. Equations derived from models using both the summary score and the gait speed alone allow for the estimation of risk of disability in community-dwelling populations and provide valuable information for estimating sample size for clinical trials of disability prevention.
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Decreased physical performance, as assessed by gait speed, increased the risk of disability in elderly people.
“Decreased physical performance, as assessed by gait speed, increased the risk of disability in elderly people (42).”
From Health Consequences of Sarcopenic Obesity: A Narrative Review (2020) · cites this paper as [42]
Among the 3 components of the SPPB (balance, chair stands, and gait speed), the steepest gradient of risk of disability was observed across the categories of gait speed.
“Of the 3 components of the SPPB (balance, chair stands and gait speed), the steepest gradient of risk of disability was observed across the categories of gait speed”
The Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) has demonstrated excellent reliability, predictive validity for a large number of adverse outcomes, and sensitivity to clinically important change.
“Extensive work on the SPPB has demonstrated excellent reliability, predictive validity for a large number of adverse outcomes and sensitivity to clinical important change (3).”
The 4-meter walk's longer distance (compared to the 8 feet walk) may improve measurement accuracy.
“As stated by Guralnik and colleagues, the assessment of gait speed over a short distance, such as the 4-meter walk, should be the choice because it has been demonstrated to be feasible at home as well as in clinical settings and its longer distance (compared to the 8 feet walk) may improve measurements accuracy (3).”
The 4-meter walk is feasible at home as well as in clinical settings.
“As stated by Guralnik and colleagues, the assessment of gait speed over a short distance, such as the 4-meter walk, should be the choice because it has been demonstrated to be feasible at home as well as in clinical settings and its longer distance (compared to the 8 feet walk) may improve measurements accuracy (3).”
ROC curves showed very similar areas under the curve for gait speed (0.67) and SPPB (0.69), with a non-significant p-value (p=0.18) between the curves when predicting ADL disability at 4 years of follow-up.
“In detail, the ROC curves showed very similar areas under the curve (AUC) for gait speed (0.67) and SPPB (0.69) showing a non-significant p-value (p=0.18) in between the curves when predicting ADL disability at 4 years of follow-up (3).”
Physical performance measures of lower extremity function accurately predicted disability in 6534 non-disabled, community-dwelling patients after a follow-up of 1-6 years.
“Physical performance measures of lower extremity function accurately predicted disability in 6534 non-disabled, community-dwelling patients after a follow-up of 1-6 years.”
Gait speed alone was nearly as good a predictor of disability outcomes as the full performance battery.
“the subsequent Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curves for the prediction of ADL and mobility disability proved that gait speed alone was nearly as good a predictor of disability outcomes as the full performance battery (3).”
SPPB test score performs particularly well in predicting incident disability, with significantly higher accuracy than measurement of gait speed alone.
“SPPB test score performs particularly well in predicting incident disability, with a significantly higher accuracy than the measurement of gait speed alone [106].”
From Gut Microbiota, Muscle Mass and Function in Aging: A Focus on Physical Frailty and Sarcopenia (2019) · cites this paper as [106]
Scores on the Short Physical Performance Battery and walking speed predict onset of difficulty in activities of daily living and disability in community-dwelling older adults.
“Scores on the SPPB and walking speed have been found to predict onset of difficulty in activities of daily living (Wennie Huang, Perera, VanSwearingen, and Studenski 2010) and disability in community-dwelling older adults.”
From Successful aging: Advancing the science of physical independence in older adults (2015) · cites this paper as Guralnik, Ferrucci, Pieper, Leveille, Markides, Ostir, Studenski, Berkman, and Wallace 2000
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- Authors
- Guralnik, J. M., Ferrucci, L., Pieper, C. F., Leveille, S. G., Markides, K. S., Ostir, G. V., Studenski, S., Berkman, L. F., & Wallace, R. B.
- Affiliations
- National Institutes of Health (US)
- Duke Medical Center (US)
- The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston (US)
- University of Kansas Medical Center (US)
- Harvard University (US)
- University of Iowa (US)
- Corresponding author
- Guralnik, J. M.
- ORCID
- Venue
- The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences
- Publisher
- Oxford University Press (OUP)
- Published
- 2000-04-01
- Volume
- 55
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- M221-M231
- ISSN
- 1079-5006 (ISSN-L)
- 1758-535X
- PMC
- PMC12149745
- OpenAlex
- W2119958965
- Cited by
- 2,898
- References
- 24
- Citations by year
- 2026: 86 · 2025: 119 · 2024: 135 · 2023: 139 · 2022: 205 · 2021: 220 · 2020: 209 · 2019: 202 · 2018: 131 · 2017: 165 · 2016: 153 · 2015: 132 · 2014: 142 · 2013: 127 · 2012: 109
- FWCI
- 14.20
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- The Journals of Gerontology Series A (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institutes of Health (Z99 AG999999)
- National Institute on Aging (N01AG02105, N01AG02106, N01-AG02107)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Geriatrics and Gerontology › Frailty in Older Adults
- Health Sciences › Health Professions › Physical Therapy, Sports Therapy and Rehabilitation › Balance, Gait, and Falls Prevention
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Aging, Health, and Disability
- Keywords
- lower limb function, disability prediction, walking speed, Short Physical Performance Battery, physical performance tests, activities of daily living, older adults, community-dwelling older adults, Hispanic older adults, disability prevention
- MeSH terms
- Activities of Daily Living, Aged, Disability Evaluation, Postural Balance, Gait, Hispanic or Latino, Humans, Leg, Risk Factors, Geriatric Assessment, Walking
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