Cited by 2,898Frailty in Older AdultsBalance, Gait, and Falls PreventionAging, Health, and Disability

Lower extremity function and subsequent disability: consistency across studies, predictive models, and value of gait speed alone compared with the short physical performance battery

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Guralnik, J. M., Ferrucci, L., Pieper, C. F., Leveille, S. G., Markides, K. S., Ostir, G. V., Studenski, S., Berkman, L. F. +1 more·2000·The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Although it has been demonstrated that physical performance measures predict incident disability in previously nondisabled older persons, the available data have not been fully developed to create usable methods for determining risk profiles in community-dwelling populations. Using several populations and different follow-up periods, this study replicates previous findings by using the Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly (EPESE) performance battery and provides equations for the prediction of disability risk according to age, sex, and level of performance. METHODS: Tests of balance, time to walk 8 ft, and time to rise from a chair 5 times were administered to 4,588 initially nondisabled persons in the four sites of the EPESE and to 1,946 initially nondisabled persons in the Hispanic EPESE. Follow-up assessment for activity of daily living (ADL) and mobility-related disability occurred from 1 to 6 years later. RESULTS: In the EPESE, compared with those with the best performance (EPESE summary performance score of 10-12), the relative risks of mobility-related disability for those with scores of 4-6 ranged from 2.9 to 4.9 and the relative risk of disability for those with scores of 7-9 ranged from 1.5 to 2.1, with similar consistent results for ADL disability. The observed rates of incident disability according to performance level in the Hispanic EPESE agreed closely with rates predicted from models developed from the EPESE sites. Receiver operating characteristic curves showed that gait speed alone performed almost as well as the full battery in predicting incident disability. CONCLUSIONS: Performance tests of lower extremity function accurately predict disability across diverse populations. Equations derived from models using both the summary score and the gait speed alone allow for the estimation of risk of disability in community-dwelling populations and provide valuable information for estimating sample size for clinical trials of disability prevention.

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  1. Cornoni-Huntley J, Blazer DB, Lafferty ME, Everett DF, Brock DB, Farmer ME, eds. Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly. Vol. 2. Bethesda, MD: National Institutes of Health; 1990.

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Authors
Guralnik, J. M., Ferrucci, L., Pieper, C. F., Leveille, S. G., Markides, K. S., Ostir, G. V., Studenski, S., Berkman, L. F., & Wallace, R. B.
Affiliations
  • National Institutes of Health (US)
  • Duke Medical Center (US)
  • The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston (US)
  • University of Kansas Medical Center (US)
  • Harvard University (US)
  • University of Iowa (US)
Corresponding author
Guralnik, J. M.
Venue
The Journals of Gerontology Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences
Published
2000-04-01
Volume
55
Issue
4
Pages
M221-M231
ISSN
  • 1079-5006 (ISSN-L)
  • 1758-535X
OpenAlex
W2119958965
Cited by
2,898
References
24
Citations by year
2026: 86 · 2025: 119 · 2024: 135 · 2023: 139 · 2022: 205 · 2021: 220 · 2020: 209 · 2019: 202 · 2018: 131 · 2017: 165 · 2016: 153 · 2015: 132 · 2014: 142 · 2013: 127 · 2012: 109
FWCI
14.20
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • The Journals of Gerontology Series A (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
Funders
  • National Institutes of Health (Z99 AG999999)
  • National Institute on Aging (N01AG02105, N01AG02106, N01-AG02107)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Geriatrics and Gerontology › Frailty in Older Adults
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › Physical Therapy, Sports Therapy and Rehabilitation › Balance, Gait, and Falls Prevention
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Aging, Health, and Disability
Keywords
lower limb function, disability prediction, walking speed, Short Physical Performance Battery, physical performance tests, activities of daily living, older adults, community-dwelling older adults, Hispanic older adults, disability prevention
MeSH terms
Activities of Daily Living, Aged, Disability Evaluation, Postural Balance, Gait, Hispanic or Latino, Humans, Leg, Risk Factors, Geriatric Assessment, Walking

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