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Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
Abstract
Is our case strong enough to go to trial? Will interest rates go up? Can I trust this person? Such questions - and the judgments required to answer them - are woven into the fabric of everyday experience. This book, first published in 2002, examines how people make such judgments. The study of human judgment was transformed in the 1970s, when Kahneman and Tversky introduced their 'heuristics and biases' approach and challenged the dominance of strictly rational models. Their work highlighted the reflexive mental operations used to make complex problems manageable and illuminated how the same processes can lead to both accurate and dangerously flawed judgments. The heuristics and biases framework generated a torrent of influential research in psychology - research that reverberated widely and affected scholarship in economics, law, medicine, management, and political science. This book compiles the most influential research in the heuristics and biases tradition since the initial collection of 1982 (by Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky).
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Jacoby, L. L., & Brooks, L. R. (1984) · Psychology of Learning and Motivation · doi:10.1016/s0079-7421(08)60358-8 · Cited by 441
Causes and effects of my disturbing little book
Meehl, P. E. (1986) · Journal of Personality Assessment · doi:10.1207/s15327752jpa5003_6 · Cited by 410
Subjective Construal, Social Inference, and Human Misunderstanding
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Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature
Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1977) · Applied Statistics · doi:10.2307/2346866 · Cited by 386
Craving for Alcohol, Loss of Control, and Relapse: A Cognitive-Behavioral Analysis
Marlatt, G. A. (1978) · Alcoholism · doi:10.1007/978-1-4613-2874-2_11 · Cited by 362
Effects of procedural and outcome accountability on judgment quality
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When shall we use our heads instead of the formula?
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Stated expectations as functions of probability and desirability of outcomes
IRWIN, F. W. (1953) · Journal of Personality · doi:10.1111/j.1467-6494.1953.tb01775.x · Cited by 281
Cross-Cultural Variations in Probability Judgment Accuracy: Beyond General Knowledge Overconfidence?
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Cultural differences in probabilistic thinking
Wright, G. N., Phillips, L. D., Whalley, P. C., Choo, G. T., Ng, K.-O., Tan, I., & Wisudha, A. (1978) · Journal of Cross-Cultural Psychology · doi:10.1177/002202217893002 · Cited by 168
A double-blind test of astrology
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The influence of motor processes on attitudes toward novel versus familiar semantic stimuli
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The weirdest people in the world?
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A perspective on judgment and choice: mapping bounded rationality.
Kahneman, D. (2003) · American Psychologist · doi:10.1037/0003-066x.58.9.697 · Cited by 5,540
Dual-Processing Accounts of Reasoning, Judgment, and Social Cognition
Evans, J. S. B. T. (2008) · Annual Review of Psychology · doi:10.1146/annurev.psych.59.103006.093629 · Cited by 5,137
Flawed Self-Assessment: Implications for Health, Education, and the Workplace
Dunning, D., Heath, C., & Suls, J. M. (2004) · Psychological Science in the Public Interest · doi:10.1111/j.1529-1006.2004.00018.x · Cited by 1,865
Reyna, V. F., & Farley, F. (2006) · Psychological Science in the Public Interest · doi:10.1111/j.1529-1006.2006.00026.x · Cited by 1,244
Metadata
- Venue
- Cambridge University Press eBooks
- Publisher
- Cambridge University Press
- Published
- 2002-07-08
- OpenAlex
- W2242842357
- Cited by
- 2,192
- References
- 153
- FWCI
- 14.02
- Type
- book
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.