Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

In the paper

“Drought regimes are intensifying across the region41, possibly due to deforestation42 that continues to expand within the system (Extended Data Fig. 5).”

What the sources say

• Disputed

  The Discussion (section 4(a)) says increasing dry and very dry events appear to be occurring in southern Amazonia, but explicitly says the proposed broader trend toward more frequent and intense droughts is not supported by its observed long-term patterns in other regions. The Conclusion (section 5) likewise reports wetter conditions in some regions and no increase in drought intensity or duration in central areas. Citation 41 is attached to the region-wide drought claim, not the separate deforestation claim attached to citation 42. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

  cites [41] Anderson, L. O. et al. Vulnerability of Amazonian forests to repeated droughts. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 373, 20170411 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Supported

  Citation 42 is attached to the suggestion that deforestation may contribute to intensifying drought, not to the broader trend or continued expansion of deforestation. The Results report that deforestation made Amazon dry seasons more intense in the early 21st century, accounting for about 3.8% of the average drying, especially in the southwest. (LLM, conf=0.93)

  cites [42] Staal, A. et al. Feedback between drought and deforestation in the Amazon. Environ. Res. Lett. 15, 044024 (2020). source

In the paper

“Beyond 20% deforestation, forest mortality accelerated, causing large reductions in regional rainfall and consequently an ecosystem transition of 50−60% of the Amazon, depending on the emissions scenario.”

What the sources say

• Disputed

  In “Climate Change: Global and Regional Perspectives” (page unavailable), the paper places a proposed forest-loss tipping point at 40% deforestation and says regional precipitation is expected to decrease beyond around 30%, not 20%. In “Impacts of Anthropogenic Drivers of Change in the Amazon” (page unavailable), it projects over 60% forest-area reduction by 2050 under combined climate, deforestation, and fire effects; it does not describe accelerated mortality beyond 20% deforestation causing a 50–60% transition. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.

  cites [81] Nobre, C. A. et al. Land-use and climate change risks in the Amazon and the need of a novel sustainable development paradigm. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 10759–10768 (2016). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Past drier climatic conditions were therefore very different from the current climatic conditions, in which observed warming trends may exacerbate drought impacts on the forest by exposing trees to unprecedented levels of water stress31,32.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Results (Drought and land cover changes) report that recent warming and drying suggest increasing water stress on vegetation in the eastern Amazonia–Cerrado transition zone. The paper does not establish that past drier climates were very different from current conditions or that trees face unprecedented levels of water stress. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  cites [31] Marengo, J. A., Jimenez, J. C., Espinoza, J.-C., Cunha, A. P. & Aragão, L. E. O. Increased climate pressure on the agricultural frontier in the Eastern Amazonia–Cerrado transition zone. Sci. Rep. 12, 457 (2022). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  The Main section says rising temperatures are likely to intensify water stress in Amazonian forests, and Implications and conclusions says higher temperatures and vapour pressure deficit will probably reduce trees’ hydraulic safety margins. The paper does not establish that past drier conditions were very different from current conditions or that trees will face unprecedented levels of water stress. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  cites [32] Tavares, J. V. et al. Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests. Nature 617, 111–117 (2023). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Increasing rainfall variability is causing extreme drought events to become more widespread and frequent across the Amazon (Fig. 1c), together with extreme wet events and convective storms that result in more windthrow disturbances40.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The citation is attached to the claim about wet events and convective storms producing windthrow, rather than the preceding drought claim, which points to the citing paper’s Fig. 1c. The Introduction says severe winds and heavy rainfall associated with storms cause widespread Amazon windthrows; the Results project more storm-favorable conditions and windthrow events. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  cites [40] Feng, Y., Negrón-Juárez, R. I., Romps, D. M. & Chambers, J. Q. Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming. Nat. Commun. 14, 101 (2023). source

In the paper

“Maximum temperatures during the dry season follow a similar trend, rising across most of the biome (Extended Data Fig. 2), exposing the forest34 and local peoples35 to potentially unbearable heat.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The citation to this paper is attached to “the forest,” not “local peoples.” The Introduction says rising temperatures may expose tropical leaves to damaging heat, and the Discussion reports leaf damage after temperatures exceeded a critical threshold. The biome-wide trend is attributed to the citing document’s own figure. (LLM, conf=0.90)

  cites [34] Doughty, C. E. et al. Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds. Nature 621, 105–111 (2023). source
• Partly supported

  In Results > Projected Change (page not provided), the paper projects that billions of people could be exposed to extremely hot mean annual temperatures. This supports the concern for people, but it does not establish that dry-season maximum temperatures across the cited biome will expose local peoples to potentially unbearable heat. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  cites [35] Xu, C., Kohler, T. A., Lenton, T. M., Svenning, J.-C. & Scheffer, M. Future of the human climate niche. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 117, 11350–11355 (2020). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“The forest contributes up to 50% of rainfall in the region and is crucial for moisture supply across South America4, allowing other biomes and economic activities to thrive in regions that would otherwise be more arid, such as the Pantanal wetlands and the La Plata river basin1.”

What the sources say

• ?Could not verify

  The supplied passages are bibliographic metadata, and searches for “50% of rainfall,” “moisture supply,” and rainfall recycling did not surface a substantive passage from the paper’s body. Our accessible copy therefore cannot verify the 50% figure or the claim about moisture supply across South America. (LLM, conf=0.70)

  cites [4] Staal, A. et al. Forest-rainfall cascades buffer against drought across the Amazon. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 539–543 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Not checked yetcites [1] Science Panel for the Amazon. Amazon Assessment Report 2021 (2021); www.theamazonwewant.org/amazon-assessment-report-2021/.

In the paper

“Throughout the core of the Amazon forest biome, patches of white-sand savanna also expanded in the past 20,000–7,000 years, driven by sediment deposition along ancient rivers26, and more recently (around 800 years ago) owing to Indigenous fires27.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The History of vegetation and time of the present-day forests section reports evidence of broader savanna areas at different times between about 20,000 and 7,578 years ago. The Potential driver section links vegetation changes in the southwestern Amazonian study area to sedimentation and ancient river channels. Citation 26 attaches to that earlier expansion, not to the later Indigenous-fire claim. The paper does not establish expansion throughout the Amazon biome or identify all those past savannas as white-sand savanna. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  cites [26] Rossetti, D. F. et al. Unfolding long-term Late Pleistocene-Holocene disturbances of forest communities in the southwestern Amazonian lowlands. Ecosphere 9, e02457 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [27] Prance, G. T. & Schubart, H. O. R. Notes on the vegetation of Amazonia I. A preliminary note on the origin of the open white sand campinas of the lower Rio Negro. Brittonia 30, 60 (1978). source

In the paper

“The difference between both ensembles is possibly related to the forest–rainfall feedback included in the five coupled models, which increases total annual rainfall and therefore the stable forest area along the southern Amazon, but only when deforestation is not included in the simulations4,37.”

What the sources say

• ?Could not verify

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 2 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites [4] Staal, A. et al. Forest-rainfall cascades buffer against drought across the Amazon. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 539–543 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites [37] Zemp, D. C. et al. Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nat. Commun. 8, 14681 (2017). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“These impacts would also involve irreversible loss of biodiversity, socioeconomic and cultural values1,7–9.”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites [1] Science Panel for the Amazon. Amazon Assessment Report 2021 (2021); www.theamazonwewant.org/amazon-assessment-report-2021/.
• Partly supported

  The Main section says biodiversity is under threat, and ‘Safeguarding language diversity’ warns that language loss could erase unique expressions of human cultural diversity. The paper does not say these impacts would irreversibly destroy biodiversity or socioeconomic values; it discusses socioeconomic change chiefly as a factor in language loss. The cited passages have no page numbers in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.78)

  cites [7] Bromham, L. et al. Global predictors of language endangerment and the future of linguistic diversity. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 6, 163–173 (2022). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [8] Gomes, V. H. F., Vieira, I. C. G., Salomão, R. P. & ter Steege, H. Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 547–553 (2019). source
• Partly supported

  The Abstract reports that the combined loss of plant species and cultural knowledge erodes indigenous knowledge networks, and that lost knowledge may jeopardize livelihoods. It does not establish that the resulting losses of biodiversity, socioeconomic values, and cultural values are all irreversible. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  cites [9] Cámara-Leret, R., Fortuna, M. A. & Bascompte, J. Indigenous knowledge networks in the face of global change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 9913–9918 (2019). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Past drought periods were usually associated with much lower atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which may have reduced water-use efficiency of trees29 (that is, trees assimilated less carbon during transpiration).”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The main text (indexed as Abstract; page unavailable) reports that atmospheric CO2 rose over the past 150 years while trees’ intrinsic water-use efficiency increased by 30–35%. It also says that higher CO2 can enhance water-use efficiency during drought, supporting the cautious inference that trees facing earlier droughts at lower CO2 may have had lower water-use efficiency. (LLM, conf=0.87)

  cites [29] van der Sleen, P. et al. No growth stimulation of tropical trees by 150 years of CO2 fertilization but water-use efficiency increased. Nat. Geosci. 8, 24–28 (2015). source

In the paper

“However, these periods also coincided with cooler temperatures20,21, which probably reduced water demand by trees30.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [20] Wang, X. et al. Hydroclimate changes across the Amazon lowlands over the past 45,000 years. Nature 541, 204–207 (2017). source
• ?Could not verify

  Citation 30 is attached to the suggestion that cooler temperatures reduced trees’ water demand; the preceding citations support the timing of cooler temperatures. The Introduction discusses mid-Holocene drying and tree-cover resilience, but the passages retrieved for cooler temperatures, water demand, and evapotranspiration do not address that proposed effect. (LLM, conf=0.72)

  cites [21] Kukla, T. et al. The resilience of Amazon tree cover to past and present drying. Global Planet. Change 202, 103520 (2021). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Could not verify

  The available indexed passage contains only the paper’s title and bibliographic details, with no section or page text addressing this claim. Searches for cooler temperatures during drought and reduced tree water demand found no relevant passage, so our copy cannot verify what the citation attributes to this source. (LLM, conf=0.70)

  cites [30] Smith, M. N. et al. Empirical evidence for resilience of tropical forest photosynthesis in a warmer world. Nat. Plants 6, 1225–1230 (2020). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Since the early 1980s, rainfall conditions have also changed31. Peripheral and central parts of the Amazon forest are drying significantly, such as in the southern Bolivian Amazon, where annual rainfall reduced by up to 20 mm yr−1 (Extended Data Fig. 3a).”

What the sources say

• Supported

  Citation 31 is attached to the statement that rainfall conditions have changed since the early 1980s. The Results section ('Regional scale trends over the MATOPIBA') reports systematic rainfall reductions over 1981–2020 and refers to decreases in rainfall since 1980. The southern Bolivian Amazon figure appears in the following sentence, which points instead to the citing paper’s Extended Data Fig. 3a. (LLM, conf=0.91)

  cites [31] Marengo, J. A., Jimenez, J. C., Espinoza, J.-C., Cunha, A. P. & Aragão, L. E. O. Increased climate pressure on the agricultural frontier in the Eastern Amazonia–Cerrado transition zone. Sci. Rep. 12, 457 (2022). source

In the paper

“Although palaeorecords suggest that a large-scale Amazon forest collapse did not occur within the past 65 million years19, they indicate that savannas expanded locally, particularly in the more seasonal peripheral regions when fires ignited by humans were frequent23,24.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 1 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites [19] Hoorn, C. et al. Amazonia through time: Andean uplift, climate change, landscape evolution, and biodiversity. Science 330, 927–931 (2010). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites [23] Mayle, F. E. & Power, M. J. Impact of a drier Early–Mid-Holocene climate upon Amazonian forests. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363, 1829–1838 (2008). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Could not verify

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 2 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites [24] Montoya, E. & Rull, V. Gran Sabana fires (SE Venezuela): a paleoecological perspective. Quat. Sci. Rev. 30, 3430–3444 (2011). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Satellite observations of climatic variability31 confirm model projections2, showing that since the early 1980s, the Amazonian region has been warming significantly at an average rate of 0.27 °C per decade during the dry season, with the highest rates of up to 0.6 °C per decade in the centre and southeast of the biome (Fig. 1a).”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites [31] Marengo, J. A., Jimenez, J. C., Espinoza, J.-C., Cunha, A. P. & Aragão, L. E. O. Increased climate pressure on the agricultural frontier in the Eastern Amazonia–Cerrado transition zone. Sci. Rep. 12, 457 (2022). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Not checked yetcites [2] IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#FullReport (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).

In the paper

“Rising temperatures will increase thermal stress, potentially reducing forest productivity and carbon storage capacity36 and causing widespread leaf damage34.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The main text (p. 13) states that warming reduces tropical forest carbon stocks and gains from woody productivity. Table S1 (p. 54) describes heat-related stress mechanisms. Widespread leaf damage is attached to citation 34, not this source, and is not part of this verdict. (LLM, conf=0.92)

  cites [36] Sullivan, M. J. P. et al. Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests. Science 368, 869–874 (2020). source
• Supported

  Citation 34 is attached to the leaf-damage claim, not the productivity and carbon-storage claim. The Discussion reports leaf damage after experimentally warmed leaves exceeded a critical temperature, and the modelling section says further warming could lead to the death of all leaves under its assumptions. This supports widespread leaf damage as a potential outcome, not a certainty. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  cites [34] Doughty, C. E. et al. Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds. Nature 621, 105–111 (2023). source

In the paper

“Large parts of the Amazon forest, however, are projected to experience mass mortality events due to climatic and land use-related disturbances in the coming decades5,6, potentially accelerating climate change through carbon emissions and feedbacks with the climate system2,3.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites [5] Cano, I. M. et al. Abrupt loss and uncertain recovery from fires of Amazon forests under low climate mitigation scenarios. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 119, e2203200119 (2022). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 1 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites [6] Parry, I. M., Ritchie, P. D. L. & Cox, P. M. Evidence of localised Amazon rainforest dieback in CMIP6 models. Earth Syst. Dynam. 13, 1667–1675 (2022). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Not checked yetcites [2] IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#FullReport (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Armstrong McKay, D. et al. Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 377, abn7950 (2022). source

In the paper

“Nonetheless, savannas expanded in peripheral parts of the southern Amazon basin during the LGM and mid-Holocene23, as well as in the northeastern Amazon during the early Holocene (around 11,000 years ago), probably influenced by drier climatic conditions and fires ignited by humans24,25.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites [23] Mayle, F. E. & Power, M. J. Impact of a drier Early–Mid-Holocene climate upon Amazonian forests. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363, 1829–1838 (2008). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 1 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 1 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites [24] Montoya, E. & Rull, V. Gran Sabana fires (SE Venezuela): a paleoecological perspective. Quat. Sci. Rev. 30, 3430–3444 (2011). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [25] Rull, V., Montoya, E., Vegas-Vilarrúbia, T. & Ballesteros, T. New insights on palaeofires and savannisation in northern South America. Quat. Sci. Rev. 122, 158–165 (2015). source

In the paper

“Satellite observations from across the Amazon suggest that forest resilience has been decreasing since the early 2000s33, possibly as a result of global changes.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The opening summary reports that remotely sensed vegetation data show resilience loss in more than three-quarters of the Amazon rainforest since the early 2000s. The Discussion suggests that drier conditions and increasing human land use probably contributed, consistent with the claim’s tentative explanation. Page numbers are not supplied in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.92)

  cites [33] Boulton, C. A., Lenton, T. M. & Boers, N. Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s. Nat. Clim. Change 12, 271–278 (2022). source

In the paper

“As a result, new fire regimes are burning larger forest areas43, emitting more carbon to the atmosphere44 and forcing IPLCs to readapt45.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [43] Alencar, A. A., Brando, P. M., Asner, G. P. & Putz, F. E. Landscape fragmentation, severe drought, and the new Amazon forest fire regime. Ecol. Appl. 25, 1493–1505 (2015). source
• Supported

  The Introduction reports that fire-associated carbon emissions increased during drought years despite falling deforestation emissions. It states that gross carbon emissions from fires in 2010 were 1.7 times those in the subsequent non-drought year. This supports the carbon-emissions clause attached to citation 44; the forest-area and IPLC clauses have separate citations. (LLM, conf=0.90)

  cites [44] Aragão, L. E. O. C. et al. 21st century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions. Nat. Commun. 9, 536 (2018). source
• Supported

  Citation 43 is attached to the claim that new fire regimes are burning larger forest areas, not to the separate carbon-emissions or readaptation claims. The Introduction describes intensified fire regimes allowing wildfires to spread over vast areas, and the Discussion reports that over 350,000 hectares of forest in the Território Indígena do Xingu burned more than once. Page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.87)

  cites [45] Silvério, D. V. et al. Intensification of fire regimes and forest loss in the Território Indígena do Xingu. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 045012 (2022). source

In the paper

“Amazonian forests are heterogeneous in their resilience to disturbances, which may have contributed to buffering large-scale transitions in the past37,61,62.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Results (‘Effect of heterogeneity’; page unavailable) report that variation in forest resilience thresholds reduces high-order cascades and usually stops the propagation of forest loss early. The Discussion (page unavailable) models conditions comparable to the Last Glacial Maximum and finds that self-amplified forest loss did not affect western Amazonia. Together, these passages support the hedged suggestion that heterogeneous resilience may have buffered large-scale transitions in the past. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  cites [37] Zemp, D. C. et al. Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nat. Commun. 8, 14681 (2017). source
• Partly supported

  The Regional patterns of vulnerability section describes differences in drought resilience across Amazonian regions, and the Impacts of climate variability section says canopy reorganization can make responses to climate change more gradual. These passages support heterogeneous resilience and a possible buffering mechanism, but they do not establish that it buffered large-scale transitions in the past. (LLM, conf=0.83)

  cites [61] Longo, M. et al. Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts. New Phytol. 219, 914–931 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  The Significance section describes heterogeneous responses to a drying climate and says forest reorganization can buffer against drastic threshold changes in vegetation state. It discusses predicted future changes, however, not evidence that heterogeneity buffered large-scale transitions in the past; its analysis also focuses on climate-related water stress rather than disturbances generally. Page numbers were not provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  cites [62] Levine, N. M. et al. Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 793–797 (2016). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“As a result of low exposure to water deficit, most northwestern forests have trees with low drought resistance and could suffer massive mortality if suddenly exposed to severe water stress32.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Hydraulic traits distribution section reports that ever-wet forests, which have little drought exposure, have the least embolism-resistant xylem. It also says they face the lowest apparent risk of hydraulic failure under observed conditions. The paper does not establish that most northwestern forests would suffer massive mortality if suddenly exposed to severe water stress. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  cites [32] Tavares, J. V. et al. Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests. Nature 617, 111–117 (2023). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Smaller areas with high transition potential were found scattered within deforestation frontiers, where most forests have been carved by roads50,51.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Discussion reports that roads cut through or lie within 10 km of some remaining Amazon forest, supporting the road-impact part of the cited clause. It does not establish that most forests specifically within deforestation frontiers have been carved by roads; across the remaining forest it reports 41% affected and 59% roadless. The finding about smaller areas with high transition potential appears to be the citing authors’ own result, not a finding attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  cites [50] Botelho, J., Costa, S. C. P., Ribeiro, J. G. & Souza, C. M. Mapping roads in the Brazilian Amazon with artificial intelligence and Sentinel-2. Remote Sensing 14, 3625 (2022). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [51] Matricardi, E. A. T. et al. Long-term forest degradation surpasses deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Science 369, 1378–1382 (2020). source

In the paper

“These strategies may allow seasonal forests to resist current levels of rainfall fluctuations32, but seasonal forests are also closer to the critical rainfall thresholds (Extended Data Fig. 1) and may experience unprecedented water stress in the coming decades (Fig. 1).”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The citation is attached to the claim that strategies may help seasonal forests withstand current rainfall fluctuations, not to the later claims tied to the citing paper’s figures. In “Hydraulic traits distribution” (page unavailable), the source reports more resistant xylem in forests with longer dry seasons and suggests that species at the driest sites may be adapted to cope with seasonal hydraulic stress. (LLM, conf=0.87)

  cites [32] Tavares, J. V. et al. Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests. Nature 617, 111–117 (2023). source

In the paper

“Soil fertility is another heterogeneity factor that may affect forest resilience59, and which may be undermined by disturbances that cause topsoil erosion60.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  Citation 59 is attached to the claim that soil fertility may affect forest resilience, not to the separate topsoil-erosion claim cited to 60. Section 4.5 (page not provided) says soil fertility could affect growth–defence tradeoffs, mortality and stand turnover, supporting the hedged claim about its potential effect on forest resilience. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  cites [59] Quesada, C. A. et al. Basin-wide variations in Amazon forest structure and function are mediated by both soils and climate. Biogeosciences 9, 2203–2246 (2012). source
• Partly supported

  Citation 60 is attached to the clause about disturbances and topsoil erosion. The indexed Abstract says disturbances leave organic topsoil vulnerable to erosion and identifies soil fertility as a condition affecting the erosion feedback. It does not explicitly say that erosion reduces soil fertility. (LLM, conf=0.78)

  cites [60] Flores, B. M. et al. Soil erosion as a resilience drain in disturbed tropical forests. Plant Soil https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-019-04097-8 (2020). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Amazonian forests are home to more than 15,000 tree species, of which 1% are dominant and the other 99% are mostly rare107.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Discussion estimates 15,874 Amazonian tree species and describes hyperdominance by a few abundant species. It does not establish that exactly 1% of species are dominant or that the other 99% are mostly rare. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  cites [107] ter Steege, H. et al. Biased-corrected richness estimates for the Amazonian tree flora. Sci. Rep. 10, 10130 (2020). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“However, observations from across the Amazon46 suggest that CO2-driven accelerations of tree growth may have contributed to increasing tree mortality rates (trees grow faster but also die earlier), which could eventually neutralize the forest carbon sink in the coming decades55.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The paper reports Amazon-wide increases in productivity and mortality (p. 4) and suggests that faster growth may shorten tree lifespans and contribute to mortality (p. 5). But it says the factors driving the observed changes remain unclear (p. 5), so it does not establish that CO2 drove the growth acceleration. The sentence separately cites source 55 for the possibility that the sink could be neutralized in coming decades. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  cites [46] Brienen, R. J. W. et al. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink. Nature 519, 344–348 (2015). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Supported

  The citation to this paper is attached to the possibility that increased mortality could neutralize the forest carbon sink. In Results and discussion, the paper says growth–lifespan trade-offs may explain rising mortality and could reduce or reverse the future forest carbon sink. The Amazon observations earlier in the sentence carry a separate citation. (LLM, conf=0.92)

  cites [55] Brienen, R. J. W. et al. Forest carbon sink neutralized by pervasive growth-lifespan trade-offs. Nat. Commun. 11, 4241 (2020). source

In the paper

“For instance, roads carving through the forest are well-known sources of illegal activities, such as logging and burning, which increase forest flammability38,39.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [38] Bullock, E. L., Woodcock, C. E., Souza, C. Jr & Olofsson, P. Satellite-based estimates reveal widespread forest degradation in the Amazon. Global Change Biol. 26, 2956–2969 (2020). source
• Partly supported

  In “Projecting Amazon forest degradation” (page unavailable), the paper says roads promote degradation and deforestation. “Spatial extent and severity” says logged forests can be more flammable than undisturbed forests, and elsewhere notes that some timber extraction is illegal. It does not establish the more specific claim that roads are sources of illegal logging and burning, or that those road-linked activities increase flammability. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  cites [39] Lapola, D. M. et al. The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation. Science 379, eabp8622 (2023). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“IPLCs defend their territories against illegal deforestation and land use disturbances49,113, and they also promote forest restoration by expanding diverse agroforestry systems121,122.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [49] Nepstad, D. et al. Inhibition of Amazon deforestation and fire by parks and Indigenous lands: inhibition of Amazon deforestation and fire. Conserv. Biol. 20, 65–73 (2006). source
• Partly supported

  The 'Consequences of Indigenous influence on land management' section says Indigenous Peoples protect biodiversity on their lands, and the 'Fig. 2 around here' section reports that most Indigenous lands have low-intensity land uses. Neither passage establishes that IPLCs defend their territories specifically against illegal deforestation or land-use disturbances. The agroforestry clause is attached to other citations, so it is not assessed here. (LLM, conf=0.79)

  cites [113] Garnett, S. T. et al. A spatial overview of the global importance of Indigenous lands for conservation. Nat. Sustain. 1, 369–374 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  The Discussion describes indigenous agroforestry management practices that can accelerate forest recovery. But the Assisted Natural Regeneration section says traditional agroforestry management in the studied villages is being replaced, not expanded. The paper therefore supports a restoration role for these practices, but not the claim that communities are expanding diverse agroforestry systems. (LLM, conf=0.87)

  cites [121] Schmidt, M. V. C. et al. Indigenous knowledge and forest succession management in the Brazilian Amazon: contributions to reforestation of degraded areas. Front. For. Glob. Change 4, 605925 (2021). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [122] Tomioka Nilsson, M. S. & Fearnside, P. M. Yanomami mobility and its effects on the forest landscape. Hum. Ecol. 39, 235–256 (2011). source

In the paper

“Continued loss of ecological knowledge will undermine the capacity of IPLCs to manage and protect Amazonian forests, further reducing their resilience to global changes9.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Abstract says progressive loss of biocultural heritage may undermine the resilience of the communities studied, and that knowledge loss constrains their ability to benefit from nature’s services. It does not establish that knowledge loss undermines their capacity to manage or protect Amazonian forests; the Study Area section also includes communities outside Amazonia. No page numbers are provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.87)

  cites [9] Cámara-Leret, R., Fortuna, M. A. & Bascompte, J. Indigenous knowledge networks in the face of global change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 9913–9918 (2019). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Other key heterogeneity factors (Extended Data Fig. 6) include topography, which determines plant access to groundwater64, and seasonal flooding, which increases forest vulnerability to wildfires65.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  Citation 65 attaches to the seasonal-flooding and wildfire clause, not the separate topography claim. The Discussion explains that floodplain vegetation has shallow, exposed root mats, making dry-season fires more damaging, and that tree recovery after fire is slow. (LLM, conf=0.91)

  cites [64] Mattos, C. R. C. et al. Double stress of waterlogging and drought drives forest–savanna coexistence. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 120, e2301255120 (2023). source
• Supported

  Citation 65 attaches to the seasonal-flooding clause, not the topography clause. The Results and Discussion (page not supplied) says floodplain forests are more vulnerable to fire than upland forests and describes exposed root mats after waters retreat that burn easily. (LLM, conf=0.92)

  cites [65] Flores, B. M. et al. Floodplains as an Achilles’ heel of Amazonian forest resilience. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 4442–4446 (2017). source

In the paper

“By creating new cultural niches, humans partly modified the Amazonian flora117,118, increasing their food security even during times of past climate change119,120 without the need for large-scale deforestation117.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [117] Levis, C. et al. Persistent effects of pre-Columbian plant domestication on Amazonian forest composition. Science 355, 925–931 (2017). source
• Partly supported

  The Introduction (page unavailable) says Indigenous management practices may have changed the abundance of useful Amazonian plants and describes practices that created domesticated forest landscapes. It does not establish that this occurred without large-scale deforestation. The food-security and past-climate-change clause is attached to other citations in the citing sentence, not to this source. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  cites [118] Coelho, S. D. et al. Eighty-four per cent of all Amazonian arboreal plant individuals are useful to humans. PLoS ONE 16, e0257875 (2021). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  In “Two models of land use” (page unavailable), the paper describes forest enrichment without large-scale deforestation and says its review suggests that polyculture agroforestry gave pre-Columbian societies resilience to climate variability. The citing sentence’s assertion that these practices increased food security during climate change is stronger than the paper’s proposed resilience finding; it does not establish a direct increase in food security. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  cites [119] de Souza, J. G. et al. Climate change and cultural resilience in late pre-Columbian Amazonia. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 1007–1017 (2019). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  Section 5.1 says Indigenous people directly manipulated plants and co-constructed biodiversity, while section 5.2 describes diversified plant management in response to climatic change. Section 5.3 finds that fires recorded at Monte Castelo were not for vegetation clearance. That site-specific finding does not establish that modifying Amazonian flora more broadly required no large-scale deforestation; the food-security and climate-change phrase is attached to other citations in the citing sentence. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  cites [120] Furquim, L. P. et al. Facing change through diversity: resilience and diversification of plant management strategies during the Mid to Late Holocene Transition at the Monte Castelo shellmound, SW Amazonia. Quaternary 4, 8 (2021). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“For instance, in the rainy western Amazon, drought-resistant species are rare but present within tree communities111, implying that they could replace the dominant drought-sensitive species in a drier future.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Discussion (page unavailable) reports that dry-forest species also occur in wetter communities and that only a small proportion of taxa are restricted to dry conditions. A later passage (Accepted Article, page unavailable) says dry-affiliated taxa may be less abundant in wet forests but generally remain present. It also suggests potential compensatory gains by the fewer dry-tolerant species as wet-forest specialists are lost, matching the sentence’s tentative implication rather than establishing that replacement will occur. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  cites [111] Esquivel-Muelbert, A. et al. Seasonal drought limits tree species across the Neotropics. Ecography 40, 618–629 (2017). source

In the paper

“Tree species complementarity increases carbon storage, accelerating forest recovery after disturbances108.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Discussion (page unavailable) reports a positive relationship between species richness and above-ground biomass, supporting the carbon-storage part of the claim. The Introduction presents complementarity as a proposed mechanism, not one the study establishes. The discussion of gap dynamics says richness and biomass may both rise after disturbance; it does not show that complementarity accelerates forest recovery. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  cites [108] Poorter, L. et al. Diversity enhances carbon storage in tropical forests: Carbon storage in tropical forests. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 24, 1314–1328 (2015). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Humans have been present in the Amazon for at least 12,000 years114 and extensively managing landscapes for 6,000 years22.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [114] Morcote-Ríos, G., Aceituno, F. J., Iriarte, J., Robinson, M. & Chaparro-Cárdenas, J. L. Colonisation and early peopling of the Colombian Amazon during the Late Pleistocene and the Early Holocene: new evidence from La Serranía La Lindosa. Quat. Int. 578, 5–19 (2021). source
• Partly supported

  Citation 22 is attached to the landscape-management claim, not the separate 12,000-year presence claim. Section 3, “Early Human Entanglements in the Neotropics” (page unavailable), says early-Holocene palm remains suggest management at two Amazonian sites, and Section 5, “Are the Neotropics Different?” (page unavailable), describes evidence of widespread human influence. Neither passage establishes that landscapes were extensively managed for 6,000 years. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  cites [22] Clement, C. R. et al. Disentangling domestication from food production systems in the neotropics. Quaternary 4, 4 (2021). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“However, consistent loss of Amazonian languages is causing an irreversible disruption of ecological knowledge systems, mostly driven by road construction7.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  In “Predicting future language loss” (page unavailable), the paper identifies the Amazon rainforest as a projected hotspot, not a documented site of consistent loss. “Predictors of language endangerment” associates road density with endangerment globally but does not establish that road construction is the main cause of Amazonian language loss. The cited passages do not establish irreversible disruption of ecological knowledge systems; “Safeguarding language diversity” instead describes the predictions as possible outcomes that intervention may change. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  cites [7] Bromham, L. et al. Global predictors of language endangerment and the future of linguistic diversity. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 6, 163–173 (2022). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Through diverse ecosystem management practices, humans built thousands of earthworks and ‘Amazon Dark Earth’ sites, and domesticated plants and landscapes across the Amazon forest115,116.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Introduction and Discussion describe diverse management practices that domesticated plants and forest landscapes across Amazonia. Materials and methods says people created anthropogenic soils, and the Discussion mentions mounds and geoglyphs. However, the paper does not establish that humans built thousands of earthworks and Amazon Dark Earth sites. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  cites [115] Levis, C. et al. How people domesticated Amazonian forests. Front. Ecol. Evol. 5, 171 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Supported

  The discussion of anthropogenic soils and earthworks reports widely dispersed Amazonian dark earth (ADE) sites and explains how human settlement and land management produced them. The paper also identifies tens of thousands of raised fields among its examples of earthworks, while its plant-management section describes domesticated plants and modified forests across Amazonia. No page numbers are available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  cites [116] Clement, C. R. et al. The domestication of Amazonia before European conquest. Proc. R. Soc. B. 282, 20150813 (2015). source

In the paper

“Today, IPLCs have diverse ecological knowledge about Amazonian plants, animals and landscapes, which allows them to quickly identify and respond to environmental changes with mitigation and adaptation practices68,69.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [68] Alexander, C. et al. Linking Indigenous and scientific knowledge of climate change. BioScience 61, 477–484 (2011). source
• Partly supported

  The paper’s discussion of Indigenous knowledge (section labeled “War uet”; page not provided) says botanical and ecological knowledge helps Indigenous peoples detect environmental change and adapt their practices. The Resilience Factors section also describes fire-management practices in Latin America. These passages support the general mechanism, but do not establish the claim specifically for IPLCs’ knowledge of Amazonian plants, animals, and landscapes or their ability to respond quickly there. (LLM, conf=0.84)

  cites [69] Ford, J. D. et al. The resilience of Indigenous peoples to environmental change. One Earth 2, 532–543 (2020). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“For instance, field evidence from long-term monitoring sites across the Amazon shows that tree mortality rates are increasing in most sites, reducing carbon storage46, while favouring the replacement by drought-affiliated species47.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The main text (p. 4) reports increasing mortality across the monitoring network and a resulting decline in the rate of biomass gain. It does not establish that mortality increased in most individual sites, and it says forests remained a biomass sink rather than losing biomass overall. The drought-affiliated species clause is attached to a different citation, so it is not assessed here. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  cites [46] Brienen, R. J. W. et al. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink. Nature 519, 344–348 (2015). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Supported

  Citation 47 is attached to the clause about favouring replacement by drought-affiliated species, not the preceding mortality-rate and carbon-storage claim. The Discussion reports that recruits have become more dry-affiliated and that mortality of wet-affiliated trees has increased where drying was stronger, supporting an emerging compositional shift. (LLM, conf=0.90)

  cites [47] Esquivel‐Muelbert, A. et al. Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 39–56 (2019). source

In the paper

“Moreover, increases in tree water-use efficiency may reduce forest transpiration and consequently atmospheric moisture flow across the Amazon53,56, potentially reducing forest resilience in the southwest of the biome4,37.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Local thermodynamic and circulation anomalies section says rising CO₂ can reduce stomatal conductance and forest transpiration. The Discussion also reports reduced moisture flow over the Amazon. But Differences between Amazon and Indonesian forests attributes the reduction in moisture convergence to non-local influences from Africa, rather than a direct consequence of reduced transpiration within the Amazon. The southwest-resilience clause has separate citations and is not judged here. (LLM, conf=0.83)

  cites [53] Kooperman, G. J. et al. Forest response to rising CO2 drives zonally asymmetric rainfall change over tropical land. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 434–440 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [56] Lammertsma, E. I. et al. Global CO2 rise leads to reduced maximum stomatal conductance in Florida vegetation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 4035–4040 (2011). source
• ?Could not verify

  The available passages are bibliographic metadata, not substantive text from the paper (no section or page is given). Searches for water-use efficiency, transpiration, atmospheric moisture flow, and southwestern Amazon resilience returned no passage addressing the attributed claim. (LLM, conf=0.72)

  cites [4] Staal, A. et al. Forest-rainfall cascades buffer against drought across the Amazon. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 539–543 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  The Results section (‘Self-amplified forest loss under dry-season intensification’; page unavailable) links reduced evapotranspiration after forest loss with moisture recycling and declining forest resilience. But the paper studies forest loss, not increased tree water-use efficiency as a cause of reduced transpiration. The southwest-resilience clause has separate citations in the citing sentence and is not attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  cites [37] Zemp, D. C. et al. Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nat. Commun. 8, 14681 (2017). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“For instance, logging and edge effects can make a forest patch more flammable39, but these disturbances are often not captured by ESMs.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The citation follows the flammability clause. In “Projecting Amazon forest degradation” (page unavailable), the paper says timber extraction and edge effects alter the forest microclimate, making future fires more likely. The statement about ESMs follows the citation and is not needed to confirm the cited clause. (LLM, conf=0.94)

  cites [39] Lapola, D. M. et al. The drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation. Science 379, eabp8622 (2023). source

In the paper

“Although these ecosystem transitions have been confirmed only in the Negro river basin (central Amazon), floodplain forests in other parts of the Amazon were shown to be particularly vulnerable to collapse45,64,65.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Results report that flooded forests in the Xingu were particularly vulnerable to forest loss from fire–drought interactions. The Conclusions state that these forests are less resilient than upland forests and at greater risk of transitioning to herbaceous vegetation. This supports the cited claim about vulnerability outside the Negro River basin; the citation is attached to that claim, not to the assertion about where transitions have been confirmed. (LLM, conf=0.94)

  cites [45] Silvério, D. V. et al. Intensification of fire regimes and forest loss in the Território Indígena do Xingu. Environ. Res. Lett. 17, 045012 (2022). source
• Partly supported

  In “Future Changes in Double Stress,” the paper says floodplain forests of the Amazonas, Madeira, and Upper Negro Rivers are particularly affected by simulated hydrologic stress, supporting the geographic point. It does not establish that those forests are particularly vulnerable to collapse: the same section says vegetation shifts depend on local factors and that more research is needed to determine each forest type’s vulnerability. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  cites [64] Mattos, C. R. C. et al. Double stress of waterlogging and drought drives forest–savanna coexistence. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 120, e2301255120 (2023). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Supported

  The Results and Discussion report lower resilience of floodplain forests and conclude that seasonally inundated forests throughout the Amazon are especially vulnerable to transition into a fire-prone state. The paper presents this as a basin-wide inference, not as confirmation that transitions have occurred outside the Negro River basin. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  cites [65] Flores, B. M. et al. Floodplains as an Achilles’ heel of Amazonian forest resilience. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 4442–4446 (2017). source

In the paper

“For floodplain ecosystems covering 14% of the forest biome, a different critical threshold has been estimated at 1,500 mm of annual rainfall65, implying that floodplain forests may be the first to collapse in a drier future.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Results and Discussion report that a savanna basin of attraction appears at around 1,500 mm of mean annual rainfall in floodplains, and that tipping points will likely be reached first in seasonally inundated forests. The same section says these ecosystems cover 14% of the Amazon basin. The paper describes the 1,500 mm figure as the appearance of a savanna state, rather than a certain point of collapse, consistent with the citing sentence’s hedged implication. (LLM, conf=0.90)

  cites [65] Flores, B. M. et al. Floodplains as an Achilles’ heel of Amazonian forest resilience. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 114, 4442–4446 (2017). source

In the paper

“Guadua bamboo forests are common in the southwestern Amazon92,93.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [92] da Silva, S. S. et al. Increasing bamboo dominance in southwestern Amazon forests following intensification of drought-mediated fires. For. Ecol. Manag. 490, 119139 (2021). source
• Supported

  The Introduction states that Guadua weberbaueri and G. sarcocarpa dominate forests over a large area of the southwest Amazon. The Discussion (Conclusions and Future Directions) estimates that at least 161,500 km² of the region has high densities of Guadua, supporting the claim that these forests are common there. (LLM, conf=0.94)

  cites [93] Carvalho, A. Lde et al. Bamboo-dominated forests of the southwest Amazon: detection, spatial extent, life cycle length and flowering waves. PLoS ONE 8, e54852 (2013). source

In the paper

“In stable forest regions of the Amazon with annual rainfall above 1,800 mm (Extended Data Fig. 1b), forest cover usually recovers within a few years or decades after disturbances, yet forest composition and functioning may remain degraded for decades or centuries84–87.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [84] Brando, P. M. et al. Prolonged tropical forest degradation due to compounding disturbances: Implications for CO2 and H2O fluxes. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 2855–2868 (2019). source
• Partly supported

  The Summary describes secondary forest stands 6–10 years after clearing, and the Introduction reports that recovery to primary forest may take 100–200 years on lightly used sites or at least 500 years on heavily used sites. The Methods give mean rainfall of 2,200 mm at the study site. The paper does not establish that forest cover usually recovers within years or decades across stable Amazonian regions above 1,800 mm of rainfall, or give a general timescale for recovery of forest functioning. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  cites [85] Mesquita, R. C. G., Ickes, K., Ganade, G. & Williamson, G. B. Alternative successional pathways in the Amazon Basin: successional pathways in the Amazon. J. Ecol. 89, 528–537 (2001). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Could not verify

  Searches for recovery times, rainfall, and species composition found no matching full-text passage. The retrieved text is labelled Abstract and cannot establish the claim under the specified evidence rule; the available passages do not verify recovery within years or decades, an 1,800 mm rainfall threshold, or degradation lasting centuries. (LLM, conf=0.70)

  cites [86] Jakovac, C. C., Peña-Claros, M., Kuyper, T. W. & Bongers, F. Loss of secondary-forest resilience by land-use intensification in the Amazon. J. Ecol. 103, 67–77 (2015). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  The Conclusion (p. not provided) says that compositional recovery after forest disturbance can take hundreds of years or longer. The Results report recruitment of smaller trees within nine years, and the Methods describe a study area averaging 2,041 mm of annual rainfall. But the paper does not establish that forest cover usually recovers within years or decades across stable Amazonian regions receiving more than 1,800 mm of rain annually. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  cites [87] Barlow, J. & Peres, C. A. Fire-mediated dieback and compositional cascade in an Amazonian forest. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363, 1787–1794 (2008). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“In the ‘degraded forest’ trajectory, feedbacks often involve competition between trees and other opportunistic plants85,90,92, as well as interactions between deforestation, fire and seed limitation84,87,105.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The ‘what drives successional pathways in the Amazon?’ section (page unavailable) links deforestation and periodic burning to different regeneration pathways, while the ‘regeneration as a function of distance from primary forest edge’ section reports seed-dispersal limits. The paper also discusses dominant pioneer plants retarding regeneration, but it does not establish competition between trees and other opportunistic plants as a frequent feedback. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  cites [85] Mesquita, R. C. G., Ickes, K., Ganade, G. & Williamson, G. B. Alternative successional pathways in the Amazon Basin: successional pathways in the Amazon. J. Ecol. 89, 528–537 (2001). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Could not verify

  The citation is attached to the clause about competition between trees and opportunistic plants, not the separate clause about deforestation, fire and seed limitation. The available passages labeled Abstract contain bibliographic details and the keyword “below-ground competition,” but no substantive passage establishing the claimed feedback in degraded forests. Searches for tree–liana competition and degraded-forest feedbacks returned no relevant text. (LLM, conf=0.72)

  cites [90] Schnitzer, S. A. & Bongers, F. Increasing liana abundance and biomass in tropical forests: emerging patterns and putative mechanisms: Increasing lianas in tropical forests. Ecology Letters 14, 397–406 (2011). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [92] da Silva, S. S. et al. Increasing bamboo dominance in southwestern Amazon forests following intensification of drought-mediated fires. For. Ecol. Manag. 490, 119139 (2021). source
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [84] Brando, P. M. et al. Prolonged tropical forest degradation due to compounding disturbances: Implications for CO2 and H2O fluxes. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 2855–2868 (2019). source
• Supported

  The Discussion (section 4; page unavailable) identifies competition with grasses and ruderal species, fire-damaged seed banks, and reduced seed dispersal as processes that can hinder forest regeneration. The Introduction (section 1; page unavailable) explains how forest clearance and other human disturbances increase fire susceptibility. Together, these passages support the cited description of interacting feedbacks in degraded forests. (LLM, conf=0.87)

  cites [87] Barlow, J. & Peres, C. A. Fire-mediated dieback and compositional cascade in an Amazonian forest. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 363, 1787–1794 (2008). source
• Partly supported

  The Discussion (page unavailable) links fire-related forest disturbance to changes in seed-dispersal traits and describes dispersal-limited recovery and a possible feedback between plant and animal communities. It does not establish a feedback involving deforestation, fire and seed limitation together. The competition clause has a separate set of citations and is not assessed against this source. (LLM, conf=0.78)

  cites [105] Hawes, J. E. et al. A large‐scale assessment of plant dispersal mode and seed traits across human‐modified Amazonian forests. J. Ecol. 108, 1373–1385 (2020). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“For instance, Vismia forests are common in old abandoned pastures managed with fire85, and are relatively stable, because Vismia trees favour recruitment of Vismia seedlings in detriment of other tree species88,89.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Summary and ‘regeneration under Vismia- and Cecropia-dominated canopies’ report that abandoned-pasture stands were Vismia-dominated and that many recruits beneath Vismia were Vismia seedlings or clonal sprouts. The paper describes Vismia as persistent, but says its effect on other species’ regeneration is a possibility and that land-use history may confound it. The claim presents that proposed cause as established and calls the recruits seedlings without allowing for sprouts. (LLM, conf=0.87)

  cites [85] Mesquita, R. C. G., Ickes, K., Ganade, G. & Williamson, G. B. Alternative successional pathways in the Amazon Basin: successional pathways in the Amazon. J. Ecol. 89, 528–537 (2001). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Could not verify

  The passages labelled Abstract contain bibliographic metadata and keywords, not findings about Vismia. Searches for Vismia recruitment, fire-managed pastures, and forest stability found no passage addressing the claim in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.72)

  cites [88] Jakovac, A. C. C., Bentos, T. V., Mesquita, R. C. G. & Williamson, G. B. Age and light effects on seedling growth in two alternative secondary successions in central Amazonia. Plant Ecol. Divers. 7, 349–358 (2014). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [89] Mazzochini, G. G. & Camargo, J. L. C. Understory plant interactions along a successional gradient in Central Amazon. Plant Soil https://doi.org/10.1007/s11104-019-04100-2 (2020). source

In the paper

“Although most recent models agree that a large-scale collapse of the Amazon forest is unlikely within the twenty-first century2, our findings suggest that interactions and synergies among different disturbances (for example, frequent extreme hot droughts and forest fires) could trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions even in remote and central parts of the system101.”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites [2] IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#FullReport (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
• Partly supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 0 confirmed, 2 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites [101] Willcock, S., Cooper, G. S., Addy, J. & Dearing, J. A. Earlier collapse of Anthropocene ecosystems driven by multiple faster and noisier drivers. Nat. Sustain 6, 1331–1342 (2023). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“These forests may naturally regrow through forest succession, yet because of feedbacks15, succession can become arrested, keeping forests persistently degraded (Fig. 4).”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Interactions with soils section says slowed recovery after disturbance can leave an ecosystem persisting in a low-tree-cover state. The Prospects for future research section adds that forest restoration can require intervention to break degrading feedbacks. Together, these support the claim that feedbacks can prevent recovery and maintain degradation; page numbers are unavailable in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.87)

  cites [15] Flores, B. M. & Staal, A. Feedback in tropical forests of the Anthropocene. Global Change Biol. 28, 5041–5061 (2022). source

In the paper

“The Amazon biome has already lost 13% of its original forest area due to deforestation83 (or 15% of the biome if we consider also young secondary forests83 that provide limited contribution to moisture flow84).”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  Table 1 reports 13.4% old-growth forest loss across the Amazon biome, supporting the rounded 13% figure. Section 2.2 reports the extent and ages of secondary forests, but does not report 15% forest loss when young secondary forests are considered. The paper defines secondary forest as regrowth on previously deforested land, so adding it to old-growth loss would double-count that area. (LLM, conf=0.88)

  cites [83] Smith, C. C. et al. Old-growth forest loss and secondary forest recovery across Amazonian countries. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 085009 (2021). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“After fire, the topsoil of burnt forests changes from clayey to sandy, favouring the establishment of savanna trees and native herbaceous plants95.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Soil Shift section says burnt floodplain forest soil shifts from clayey to sandy, while the Vegetation Shift section reports the arrival of savanna trees and the dominance of native herbaceous plants in burnt sites. But the paper says it cannot infer how soils and plants interact during this shift; it does not establish that the sandier soil favours the establishment of both plant groups. (LLM, conf=0.86)

  cites [95] Flores, B. M. & Holmgren, M. White-sand savannas expand at the core of the Amazon after forest wildfires. Ecosystems 24, 1624–1637 (2021). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Estimates from across the Amazon indicate that approximately 30% of areas previously deforested are in a secondary forest state83 (covering 4% of the biome).”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Abstract reports that secondary forests occupied 28.8% of deforested land across the Amazon biome, supporting “approximately 30%.” Section 2.2 reports 234,795 km² of secondary forest; the paper calls this 4.1% of total forest cover, rather than of the biome. Its biome-wide figures nevertheless put secondary forest at approximately 4% of the biome. (LLM, conf=0.91)

  cites [83] Smith, C. C. et al. Old-growth forest loss and secondary forest recovery across Amazonian countries. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 085009 (2021). source

In the paper

“Another study using a climate-vegetation model found that with accumulated deforestation of 30−50%, rainfall in non-deforested areas downwind would decline67 by 40% (ref. 67), potentially causing more forest loss4,37.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Discussion reports that deforesting 30–50% of the east-to-west Amazon model boxes would reduce precipitation in the remaining non-deforested areas by about 40%. The Abstract identifies this as a model result affecting the western Amazon and areas further downstream. The suggestion of additional forest loss carries separate citations in the citing sentence and is not attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.94)

  cites [67] Boers, N., Marwan, N., Barbosa, H. M. J. & Kurths, J. A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system. Sci. Rep. 7, 41489 (2017). source
• ?Could not verify

  The passages available from our copy are bibliographic and repository information, not the study’s findings; none reports the claimed 30–50% deforestation scenario or a 40% rainfall decline in non-deforested areas downwind. Searches for those figures and for downwind rainfall returned no relevant passage. The potential for further forest loss is attached to different citations in the citing sentence. (LLM, conf=0.74)

  cites [4] Staal, A. et al. Forest-rainfall cascades buffer against drought across the Amazon. Nat. Clim. Change 8, 539–543 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  The Results (LGM and twenty-first century; page unavailable) describe an approximately 40% dry-season rainfall reduction that could lead to self-amplified forest loss. But that scenario is driven by reduced oceanic moisture inflow, not 30–50% accumulated deforestation; the passage does not place the rainfall decline in non-deforested areas downwind. (LLM, conf=0.87)

  cites [37] Zemp, D. C. et al. Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks. Nat. Commun. 8, 14681 (2017). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Today, invasion by alien flammable grasses is a novel stabilizing mechanism96,97, but the long-term persistence of these grasses in the ecosystem is also uncertain.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [96] Veldman, J. W. & Putz, F. E. Grass-dominated vegetation, not species-diverse natural savanna, replaces degraded tropical forests on the southern edge of the Amazon Basin. Biol. Conserv. 144, 1419–1429 (2011). source
• Supported

  The Introduction describes a positive feedback cycle in which invasive grasses increase fire intensity, reduce tree cover, and facilitate further grass invasion. Section (c), “Persistence of fire-promoting grasses,” says it remains unclear whether the resulting grass-dominated ecosystem will persist over longer fire-free periods. (LLM, conf=0.90)

  cites [97] Silvério, D. V. et al. Testing the Amazon savannization hypothesis: fire effects on invasion of a neotropical forest by native cerrado and exotic pasture grasses. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 368, 20120427 (2013). source

In the paper

“Their origin has been attributed to geomorphological dynamics and past Indigenous fires26,27,94.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Conclusions and Ways Forward attribute the study area’s savanna and forest distribution to evolving fluvial terraces, topographic gradients, and hydrology, supporting the geomorphological part. Linkage to Past Climate mentions anthropogenic fires only as a suggested amplification of Holocene savanna in the separate Gran Sabana region; it does not attribute the origin of the study area’s vegetation to past Indigenous fires. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  cites [26] Rossetti, D. F. et al. Unfolding long-term Late Pleistocene-Holocene disturbances of forest communities in the southwestern Amazonian lowlands. Ecosphere 9, e02457 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [27] Prance, G. T. & Schubart, H. O. R. Notes on the vegetation of Amazonia I. A preliminary note on the origin of the open white sand campinas of the lower Rio Negro. Brittonia 30, 60 (1978). source
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [94] Adeney, J. M., Christensen, N. L., Vicentini, A. & Cohn‐Haft, M. White‐sand ecosystems in Amazonia. Biotropica 48, 7–23 (2016). source

In the paper

“At the landscape scale, secondary forests are more likely to be cleared than mature forests, thus keeping forests persistently young and landscapes fragmented83.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  Section 2.2 reports that most Amazonian secondary forest was young and that 70% of cleared secondary forest was five years old or less; the Discussion also describes high turnover and short residence times. Our copy does not establish that secondary forests are more likely to be cleared than mature forests, or that their clearance keeps landscapes fragmented. Page numbers were not available in the indexed passages. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  cites [83] Smith, C. C. et al. Old-growth forest loss and secondary forest recovery across Amazonian countries. Environ. Res. Lett. 16, 085009 (2021). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“Significant effects on simulation results may emerge from increasing plant functional diversity, representation of key physiological trade-offs and other features that determine water stress on plants, and also allowing for community adjustment to environmental heterogeneity and global change32,55,62,99.”

What the sources say

• Partly supported

  The Abstract and Implications and conclusions (page unavailable) link variation in hydraulic traits and a proposed growth–mortality trade-off to Amazon forest composition and biomass change. Hydraulic traits distribution also reports variation with rainfall and local water availability. The paper does not show that increasing functional diversity or allowing community adjustment significantly changes simulation results. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  cites [32] Tavares, J. V. et al. Basin-wide variation in tree hydraulic safety margins predicts the carbon balance of Amazon forests. Nature 617, 111–117 (2023). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  In “Implications for forest demography and carbon sink” (page not provided), simulations with and without a growth–lifespan trade-off produce substantially different biomass and mortality results. The paper also notes that climate-driven shifts in species distributions may affect biomass. It does not establish simulation effects from increasing plant functional diversity, representing features that determine water stress, or allowing community adjustment to environmental heterogeneity. (LLM, conf=0.85)

  cites [55] Brienen, R. J. W. et al. Forest carbon sink neutralized by pervasive growth-lifespan trade-offs. Nat. Commun. 11, 4241 (2020). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• Partly supported

  The Significance section (page unavailable) shows that representing individual plant water stress and canopy dynamics, rather than an aggregated canopy, substantially changes simulated forest responses. It also predicts changes in forest composition following drought. Our copy does not specifically show that increasing plant functional diversity or representing key physiological trade-offs produces significant effects on simulation results. (LLM, conf=0.82)

  cites [62] Levine, N. M. et al. Ecosystem heterogeneity determines the ecological resilience of the Amazon to climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 793–797 (2016). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
• ?Could not verify

  The available passages contain the title and bibliographic records, but no substantive findings. Searches for simulation effects, physiological trade-offs, water stress, and community adjustment returned no passages addressing the claim, so our copy cannot verify what is attributed to this paper. (LLM, conf=0.72)

  cites [99] Sakschewski, B. et al. Resilience of Amazon forests emerges from plant trait diversity. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 1032–1036 (2016). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured

In the paper

“In 2012, Davidson et al.102 demonstrated how the Amazon basin was experiencing a transition to a ‘disturbance-dominated regime’ related to climatic and land use changes, even though at the time, annual deforestation rates were declining owing to new forms of governance103.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [102] Davidson, E. A. et al. The Amazon basin in transition. Nature 481, 321–328 (2012). source
• Supported

  Split into 2 atoms — 2 confirmed, 0 partially supported, 0 disputed, 0 misattributed, 0 unverifiable. Expand the claim to see per-atom verdicts.

  cites [103] Hecht, S. B. From eco-catastrophe to zero deforestation? Interdisciplinarities, politics, environmentalisms and reduced clearing in Amazonia. Envir. Conserv. 39, 4–19 (2012). source

In the paper

“We aggregated these monthly flows, resulting in mean annual moisture flows between all Amazonian countries during 2008–2017.”

What the sources say

• Supported

  The Introduction describes a global dataset of pairwise moisture flows with monthly multi-annual mean footprints for 2008–2017. The citing authors describe aggregating those flows into annual flows between Amazonian countries as their own step, not as a result reported by Tuinenburg et al. (LLM, conf=0.93)

  cites Tuinenburg et al. [134] Tuinenburg, O. A., Theeuwen, J. J. E. & Staal, A. High-resolution global atmospheric moisture connections from evaporation to precipitation. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 12, 3177–3188 (2020). source

In the paper

“Aircraft measurements of vertical carbon flux between the forest and atmosphere reveal how southeastern forests are already emitting more carbon than they absorb, probably because of deforestation and fire48.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [48] Gatti, L. V. et al. Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change. Nature 595, 388–393 (2021). source

In the paper

“Moreover, 47% of the biome has a moderate transition potential (more than 1 disturbance type; Fig. 1f), including relatively remote parts of the central Amazon where warming trends and repeated extreme drought events overlap (Fig. 1a,c).”

In the paper

“We found that 10% of the Amazon forest biome has a relatively high transition potential (more than 2 disturbance types; Fig. 1f), including bistable forests that could transition into a low tree cover state near savannas of Guyana, Venezuela, Colombia and Peru, as well as stable forests that could transition into alternative compositional states within the central Amazon, such as along the BR319”

In the paper

“By contrast, large remote areas covering 53% of the biome have low transition potential, mostly reflecting the distribution of protected areas and Indigenous territories (Fig. 1e).”

In the paper

“Our reanalysis of the Amazon basin (Extended Data Fig. 1d) suggests a critical threshold at eight months of DSL (Fig. 3a), with a bistability range between approximately five and eight months (see Extended Data Table 2 for uncertainty ranges), in which forests are more likely to collapse when severely disturbed than forests in areas with DSL below five months.”

In the paper

“Our reanalysis of the Amazon basin (Extended Data Fig. 1c) confirms the critical threshold at approximately −450 mm in the MCWD (Fig. 3a), and suggests a bistability range between approximately −350 and −450 mm (see Extended Data Table 2 for uncertainty ranges), in which forests are more likely to collapse when severely disturbed than forests in areas with MCWD below −350 mm.”

In the paper

“Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition.”

In the paper

“Nonetheless, both model ensembles agree that bistable regions will expand deeper into the Amazon, increasing the risk of critical transitions due to disturbances (as implied by the existence of alternative stable states; Extended Data Fig. 1).”

In the paper

“The Amazon is home to more than 40 million people, including 2.2 million Indigenous peoples of more than 300 ethnicities, as well as afrodescendent and local traditional communities1.”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites [1] Science Panel for the Amazon. Amazon Assessment Report 2021 (2021); www.theamazonwewant.org/amazon-assessment-report-2021/.

In the paper

“The Amazon forest holds more than 10% of Earth’s terrestrial biodiversity, stores an amount of carbon equivalent to 15–20 years of global CO2 emissions (150–200 Pg C), and has a net cooling effect (from evapotranspiration) that helps to stabilize the Earth’s climate1–3.”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites [1] Science Panel for the Amazon. Amazon Assessment Report 2021 (2021); www.theamazonwewant.org/amazon-assessment-report-2021/.
• Not checked yetcites [2] IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#FullReport (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Armstrong McKay, D. et al. Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 377, abn7950 (2022). source

In the paper

“Recent climate models of the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) agree that in the coming decades, rainfall conditions will become more seasonal in the eastern and southern Amazonian regions, and temperatures will become higher across the entire Amazon1,2.”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites [1] Science Panel for the Amazon. Amazon Assessment Report 2021 (2021); www.theamazonwewant.org/amazon-assessment-report-2021/.
• Not checked yetcites [2] IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#FullReport (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).

In the paper

“When stressing conditions intensify, some ecosystems may change their equilibrium state gradually, whereas others may shift abruptly between alternative stable states10.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [10] Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J. A., Folke, C. & Walker, B. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413, 591–596 (2001). source

In the paper

“If these trends continue, ecosystem stability (as in Extended Data Fig. 1) will probably change in parts of the Amazon by 2050, reshaping forest resilience to disturbances (Fig. 1b and Extended Data Fig. 3b).”

In the paper

“By 2050, models project that a significant increase in the number of consecutive dry days by 10−30 days and in annual maximum temperatures by 2–4 °C, depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenario2.”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites [2] IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#FullReport (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).

In the paper

“The Amazon forest holds more than 10% of Earth’s terrestrial biodiversity, stores an amount of carbon equivalent to 15–20 years of global CO2 emissions (150–200 Pg C), and has a net cooling effect (from evapotranspiration) that helps to stabilize the Earth’s climate1–3.”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites [1] Science Panel for the Amazon. Amazon Assessment Report 2021 (2021); www.theamazonwewant.org/amazon-assessment-report-2021/.
• Not checked yetcites [2] IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#FullReport (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Armstrong McKay, D. et al. Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 377, abn7950 (2022). source

In the paper

“Tropical terrestrial ecosystems are a well-known case in which critical transitions between alternative stable states may occur (Extended Data Fig. 1).”

In the paper

“Human greenhouse gas emissions continue to intensify global warming, but the warming rate also depends on feedbacks in the climate system that remain uncertain2,3.”

What the sources say

• Not checked yetcites [2] IPCC. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis (eds Masson-Delmotte, V. et al.) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#FullReport (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2021).
• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Armstrong McKay, D. et al. Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 377, abn7950 (2022). source

In the paper

“We also included protected areas and Indigenous territories as areas with high forest governance, where deforestation and fire regimes are among the lowest within the Amazon49 (Fig. 1e).”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [49] Nepstad, D. et al. Inhibition of Amazon deforestation and fire by parks and Indigenous lands: inhibition of Amazon deforestation and fire. Conserv. Biol. 20, 65–73 (2006). source

In the paper

“Future changes in rainfall regimes will probably affect hydrological regimes66, exposing plateau (hilltop) forests to unprecedented water stress, and floodplain forests to extended floods, droughts and wildfires.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [66] Marengo, J. A. & Espinoza, J. C. Extreme seasonal droughts and floods in Amazonia: causes, trends and impacts. Int. J. Climatol. 36, 1033–1050 (2016). source

In the paper

“Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to increase the photosynthetic rates of trees, accelerating forest growth and biomass accumulation on a global scale52.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [52] Ainsworth, E. A. & Long, S. P. What have we learned from 15 years of free‐air CO2 enrichment (FACE)? A meta‐analytic review of the responses of photosynthesis, canopy properties and plant production to rising CO2. New Phytol. 165, 351–372 (2005). source

In the paper

“The impacts of these pervasive disturbances on biodiversity and on IPLCs will probably affect ecosystem adaptability (Box 1), and consequently forest resilience to global changes.”

In the paper

“This simple additive approach does not consider synergies between compounding disturbances that could trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions.”

In the paper

“Northwestern forests rarely experience water stress, which makes them relatively more resilient than southeastern forests that may experience water stress in the dry season, and therefore are more likely to shift into a low tree cover state.”

In the paper

“Forest responses depend on scale, with resilience possibly increasing at the local scale on relatively more fertile soils, but decreasing at the regional scale due to reduced atmospheric moisture flow.”

In the paper

“Considering that half of Amazonian tree species are estimated to become threatened (IUCN Red list) by 2050 owing to climate change, deforestation and degradation8, biodiversity losses could contribute to further reducing forest resilience.”

What the sources say

• ?Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [8] Gomes, V. H. F., Vieira, I. C. G., Salomão, R. P. & ter Steege, H. Amazonian tree species threatened by deforestation and climate change. Nat. Clim. Change 9, 547–553 (2019). source