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Cited by 861COVID-19 epidemiological studiesLegal, Health, Environmental and COVID-19 ChallengesPublic Health Policies and Education

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 297 of the 308 references it cites were found in a registry or an index, and 1 are not checked yet; 10 of the 474 sources its claims cite were checked for support.

The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic

Open access
Sachs, Jeffrey D, Karim, Salim S Abdool, Aknin, Lara, Allen, Joseph, Brosbøl, Kirsten, Colombo, Francesca, Barron, Gabriela Cuevas, Espinosa, María Fernanda, Gaspar, Vitor, Gaviria, Alejandro, Haines, Andy, Hotez, Peter J, Koundouri, Phoebe, Bascuñán, Felipe Larraín, Lee, Jong-Koo, Pate, Muhammad Ali, Ramos, Gabriela, Reddy, K Srinath, Serageldin, Ismail, Thwaites, John, Vike-Freiberga, Vaira, Wang, Chen, Were, Miriam Khamadi, Xue, Lan, Bahadur, Chandrika, Bottazzi, Maria Elena, Bullen, Chris, Laryea-Adjei, George, Ben Amor, Yanis, Karadag, Ozge, Lafortune, Guillaume, Torres, Emma, Barredo, Lauren, Bartels, Juliana G E, Joshi, Neena, Hellard, Margaret, Huynh, Uyen Kim, Khandelwal, Shweta, Lazarus, Jeffrey V, Michie, Susan·2022·The Lancet
DOI 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01585-9PMC PMC9539542
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Abstract

Jeffrey D Sachs, Salim S Abdool Karim, Lara Aknin, Joseph Allen, Kirsten Brosbøl, Francesca Colombo, Gabriela Cuevas Barron, María Fernanda Espinosa, Vitor Gaspar, Alejandro Gaviria, Andy Haines, Peter J Hotez, Phoebe Koundouri, Felipe Larraín Bascuñán, Jong-Koo Lee, Muhammad Ali Pate, Gabriela Ramos, K Srinath Reddy, Ismail Serageldin, John Thwaites, Vaira Vike-Freiberga, Chen Wang, Miriam Khamadi Were, Lan Xue, Chandrika Bahadur, Maria Elena Bottazzi, Chris Bullen, George Laryea-Adjei, Yanis Ben Amor, Ozge Karadag, Guillaume Lafortune, Emma Torres, Lauren Barredo, Juliana G E Bartels, Neena Joshi, Margaret Hellard, Uyen Kim Huynh, Shweta Khandelwal, Jeffrey V Lazarus, Susan Michie

Verified 2026-10-05 · 1 reference not checked yet

Overview

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01585-9

Cites

297 of 298 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Verification

Claims the paper makes

240 Not checked yet · 126 Own interpretation · 123 No basis given · 61 Sources not found · 4 Partly supported · 1 Supported so far · 1 Own result · accuracy not yet measured

Verify all 361 references — free account
  • It may state two separate claims as one. 245
  • The quote only partly states this claim. 5
  • Probably not a substantial claim. 74
291 of 291

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    The IHME mean estimates of COVID-19 infections and deaths are sufficiently accurate for the Commission's analysis.

    “throughout the report, we rely on IHME estimates of infections and deaths; note that the IHME gives an estimated range, and we refer to the mean estimate”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The Commission's composition and task force process are adequate to produce valid policy recommendations.

    “The 28 Commissioners are global experts in public policy, international cooperation, epidemiology and vaccinology, economics and financial systems, sustainability sciences, and mental health.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The five-pillar framework captures the essential components of a successful fight against emerging infectious diseases.

    “There are five basic pillars of a successful fight against emerging infectious diseases.”

  • The authors state this as an assumption.

    In the two-country open-border scenario, it is not practical to shut down travel between the countries or to impose effective quarantine on travellers between them.

    “supposing that it is not practical to either shut down travel between the two countries or to impose an effective quarantine on travellers between the two countries.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Nearly all SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurs indoors.

    “As nearly all transmission occurs indoors, the way in which we design and operate building ventilation and filtration systems can reduce transmission.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The International Monetary Fund provided urgent support of approximately $170 billion for around 90 countries.

    “The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also provided urgent support of approximately $170 billion for around 90 countries.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Human behaviour is central to the transmission and suppression of the pandemic.

    “Human behaviour is central to transmission of the disease and suppression of the pandemic.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Public attitudes are shaped by various factors including national culture, education, peer groups, social media, and leaders' actions and statements.

    “Public attitudes are shaped by various factors, including national culture, education level, peer groups, social media, and the actions and statements of national leaders.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Social media had a crucial role in how public health and social measures were perceived.

    “Social media also had a crucial role in how public health and social measures were perceived by the public.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    COVID-19 is likely to become endemic.

    “As COVID-19 is likely to become endemic”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The US Government has not designed appropriate ways to manage intellectual property it co-funds and co-generates.

    “Yet the US Government has not designed appropriate ways to manage the intellectual property that it co-funds and co-generates.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Intellectual property funded by the US Government typically ends up entirely in non-governmental hands at universities or companies.

    “Typically, intellectual property that has been funded by the US Government ends up entirely in non-governmental hands, whether at universities or companies.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Universities and companies charge vaccine prices much greater than actual manufacturing costs.

    “Universities and companies then exercise monopoly rights to the technologies under patent, and charge prices for vaccine doses that are much greater than the actual costs of manufacturing.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    COVAX failed to deliver on its targets and timelines because vaccine-producing companies made contracts directly with highest-paying governments rather than COVAX.

    “However, in practice, COVAX failed to deliver on its targets and timelines because vaccine-producing companies made contracts directly with the governments that paid the highest prices, rather than with COVAX, which insisted on lower prices for low-income countries.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Vaccine-producing countries such as India imposed export bans on vaccines rather than delivering them to COVAX as promised.

    “Moreover, vaccine-producing countries, such as India, imposed export bans on vaccines rather than delivering them to COVAX as promised.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The ability to grant emergency-use listing of COVID-19 vaccines was restricted to WHO or one of six stringent regulatory authorities, excluding LMIC national regulatory authorities.

    “The ability to grant emergency-use listing of COVID-19 vaccines was restricted to either WHO or one of the six stringent regulatory authorities in the United States, Canada, UK, EU, Australia, and Japan—once again excluding any national regulatory authority based in an LMIC.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Many individual drug treatment trials with available results recruited small numbers of patients, were underpowered, and could not detect useful beneficial effects.

    “Many of the individual drug treatment trials for which results are available recruited small numbers of patients, such that the trials were underpowered and were not able to detect useful beneficial effects.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Central banks around the world reacted swiftly to unprecedented financial disturbances in March 2020.

    “Central banks around the world reacted swiftly to unprecedented financial disturbances in March, 2020.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The World Bank approved a $14 billion fast-track facility for health emergency response on March 2, 2020, supporting more than 100 countries with credits and grants within 3 months.

    “The World Bank approved a $14 billion fast-track facility for health emergency response on March 2, 2020, and this facility supported more than 100 countries with credits and grants within the subsequent 3-month period through the global health multiphase programmatic approach.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The World Bank approved $12 billion for financing vaccine procurement and delivery in early October 2020, though resources were limited by individual-country allocation requirements.

    “The World Bank also approved $12 billion for financing vaccine procurement and delivery in early October, 2020, even though these resources were limited by their requirement to be allocated on an individual-country basis.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The IMF's 2021 SDR allocation was made in proportion to existing IMF quotas, so most went to high-income countries and only $30 billion to Africa.

    “However, this important infusion of liquidity was made in proportion to the existing IMF quotas, meaning that most of the special drawing rights allocation went to high-income countries, and only $30 billion to countries in Africa.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The IMF liquidity infusion was substantial relative to GDP of many low-income countries, up to 11% of recipient GDP in some cases.

    “Nonetheless, this liquidity infusion was still substantial relative to the GDP of many low-income countries—up to 11% of recipient country GDP in some cases.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The G20 represents 63% of world's population and 87% of economic output.

    “As a powerful complement to the UN, comprising 19 national governments and the EU, the G20 represents 63% of the world's population and 87% of its economic output.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    G20 countries account for 90% of research expenditure, researchers, publications, and patents.

    “G20 countries account for 90% of research expenditure, researchers, publications, and patents.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The pandemic did not alter the picture of health financing in any decisive way.

    “The pandemic did not alter this picture in any decisive way.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Raising even a few billion dollars of international support for ACT Accelerator and COVAX proved extremely difficult.

    “Raising even a few billion dollars of international support for ACT Accelerator and COVAX proved extremely difficult, despite the urgency of the pandemic.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The modest funding was insufficient to obtain crucial PPE, testing supplies, and especially vaccines.

    “The modest funding was insufficient to obtain crucial PPE supplies, testing supplies, and especially vaccines.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Bilateral deals between countries and manufacturers were prioritised at the expense of COVAX.

    “Bilateral deals between countries and manufacturers for the purchase of these commodities were prioritised at the expense of COVAX.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Many producing countries implemented temporary export bans on essential products, with wider effects on access for countries in need.

    “Many producing countries also implemented temporary export bans on essential products (eg, PPE, pharmaceuticals, and hand sanitiser), with wider effects on access for countries in need.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The spread of small vertical health funds has become unmanageable, with many key functions slipping through the cracks.

    “The spread of small vertical health funds has become unmanageable, with many key functions slipping through the cracks.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The highly expansionary macroeconomic policies of 2020-21, particularly increases in money supply in US and eurozone, have resulted in high inflation in 2022.

    “The highly expansionary macroeconomic policies of 2020–21, in particular the enormous increases in the money supply in both the United States and the eurozone, have resulted in high inflation in 2022, with the longer-term consequences still to be seen.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia have further exacerbated supply shocks due to COVID-19 and given rise to fear of extended stagflation.

    “That the first 2 years of the pandemic were followed by the war in Ukraine and a stringent sanctions regime against the Russian Federation has further exacerbated the supply shocks due to COVID-19, and has given rise to the fear of an extended period of stagflation, in which the combination of monetary expansions and powerful supply shocks could lead to a combination of economic downturns and high”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Earth is now 1.2°C hotter than pre-industrial temperature, and the 8 years since 2014 have been the eight warmest years since records began in 1870.

    “Earth is now 1·2°C hotter than the pre-industrial temperature, and the 8 years since 2014 have been the eight warmest years since records began in 1870.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The COVID-19 pandemic threatens to divert global attention, financing, and political capital away from sustainable development.

    “The COVID-19 pandemic threatens to divert global attention, financing, and scarce political capital away from the urgent agenda of sustainable development, including the SDGs and the Paris Climate Agreement.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The Next Generation EU fund commits €750 billion towards recovery and resilience with focus on green and digital transformation.

    “The Next Generation EU fund commits €750 billion towards recovery and resilience with a focus on a green and digital transformation.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    EU member states must devote a minimum of 37% of funding to climate change and 20% to digital transition.

    “In using the funds, EU member states must devote a minimum of 37% of the funding to climate change and a minimum of 20% to the digital transition.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The challenges of sustainable development in LMICs are far more acute.

    “The challenges of sustainable development in LMICs are far more acute.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Even if COVID-19 pandemic recedes soon, economic scarring will be long-lasting.

    “Even if the COVID-19 pandemic recedes soon, economic scarring will be long-lasting.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Many lower-income countries lack financial means to promote long-term recovery and finance sustainable development and Paris commitments.

    “Many lower-income countries lack the financial means to promote long-term recovery and to finance sustainable development and commitments under the Paris Climate Agreement.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    There is an opportunity to integrate health, environmental sustainability, and equitable economic recovery into post-COVID stimulus packages, but the potential has not been realised.

    “There is an opportunity to integrate health, environmental sustainability, and equitable economic recovery into post-COVID stimulus packages, but the potential for doing so has not been realised.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Governments have focused efforts on measures bringing immediate benefits to employment and economic growth, such as green energy, transportation, and building energy efficiency.

    “Moreover, governments have focused their efforts on measures that could bring immediate benefits to employment and economic growth, such as investments in green energy and transportation, and renovations to increase the energy efficiency of buildings.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Military conflicts and social turmoil can increase cases of COVID-19 and outbreaks of other infectious diseases and can affect surveillance systems, amplifying humanitarian crises.

    “Military conflicts and social turmoil can increase cases of COVID-19 and outbreaks of other infectious diseases and can affect surveillance systems, therefore amplifying humanitarian crises.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    In absence of unbiased, independent, rigorous search for natural origin and investigation of research-related hypotheses, public's trust in science will be imperilled, with potentially grave long-term repercussions.

    “In the absence of an unbiased, independent, and rigorous search for a natural origin by a multidisciplinary team of experts alongside an unbiased, independent, and rigorous investigation of the research-related hypotheses, the public's trust in science will be imperilled, with potentially grave long-term repercussions.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The weaknesses and shortfalls of IHR (2005) in protecting world against COVID-19 have led to decision by WHO member states to start process to draft new agreements.

    “The weaknesses and shortfalls of the IHR (2005) in protecting the world against the COVID-19 pandemic have led to the decision by WHO member states to start the process to draft and negotiate new agreements on pandemic preparedness and response, including a possible new Pandemic Treaty.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    One Health measures are likely to be highly cost effective and would complement investments in health systems, vaccines, therapeutics, and outbreak response.

    “Such measures are likely to be highly cost effective and would complement investments in the strengthening of national health systems, the development of vaccines and therapeutics, and other outbreak response strategies described in this report.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    It is certain that future pandemics will arise from interactions between humans and animals, and that research on viruses will continue with potential for accidents.

    “It is certain that future pandemics will arise from interactions between humans and animals, and that research on viruses will continue with the potential for accidents.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The collection of viruses and other pathogens from nature can give rise to research-related spillovers.

    “We must be aware that the collection of viruses and other pathogens from nature can give rise to research-related spillovers.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Such activities have been largely unregulated in the past.

    “Such activities have been largely unregulated in the past.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Even today, there is little understanding and clarity about research on SARS-like viruses that was underway just before COVID-19 pandemic.

    “Even today, there is little understanding and clarity about the research on SARS-like viruses that was underway just before the COVID-19 pandemic.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Most countries lack meaningful pandemic preparedness plans.

    “Most countries lack meaningful pandemic preparedness plans.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    The countries that made such plans, such as Western Pacific region after SARS, have fared best in COVID-19 pandemic.

    “The countries that made such plans, such as countries of the Western Pacific region after the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, have fared best in the COVID-19 pandemic.”

  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Global public goods ought to be available to all.

    “to ensure that global public goods are available to all”
52 of 52

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Citations

Cites

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Research works printed but not linked: 8

  1. Margolin, 2020, Intelligence report warned of coronavirus crisis as early as November: sources, ABC News
  2. Lerner, 2022, NIH sent The Intercept 292 fully redacted pages related to virus research in Wuhan, The Intercept
  3. Allam, 2020, The first 50 days of COVID-19: a detailed chronological timeline and extensive review of literature documenting the pandemic, 1
  4. Grady, 2020, Three U.S. airports to check passengers for a deadly Chinese coronavirus, The New York Times
  5. 2020, Coronavirus: ‘An emergency in China, but not yet a global health emergency’, UN News
  6. Rogers, 2020, Trump administration signals formal withdrawal from W.H.O, The New York Times
  7. Burns, 2021, International travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review, Cochrane Database Syst Rev, 25
  8. Wells, 1942, The environmental control of epidemic contagion: I. An epidemiologic study of radiant disinfection of air in day schools, Am J Hyg, 35, 97

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Metadata

Authors
Sachs, J. D., Karim, S. S. A., Aknin, L., Allen, J., Brosbøl, K., Colombo, F., Barron, G. C., Espinosa, M. F., Gaspar, V., Gaviria, A., Haines, A., Hotez, P. J., Koundouri, P., Bascuñán, F. L., Lee, J.-K., Pate, M. A., Ramos, G., Reddy, K. S., Serageldin, I., Thwaites, J., Vike-Freiberga, V., Wang, C., Were, M. K., Xue, L., Bahadur, C., Bottazzi, M. E., Bullen, C., Laryea-Adjei, G., Ben Amor, Y., Karadag, O., Lafortune, G., Torres, E., Barredo, L., Bartels, J. G. E., Joshi, N., Hellard, M., Huynh, U. K., Khandelwal, S., Lazarus, J. V., & Michie, S.
Affiliations
  • Columbia University (US)
  • Simon Fraser University (CA)
  • Harvard University (US)
  • Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques (FR)
  • London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
  • Baylor College of Medicine (US)
  • European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (IT)
  • Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (CL)
  • UNESCO (FR)
  • Public Health Foundation of India (IN)
  • Bibliotheca Alexandrina (EG)
  • Monash University (AU)
  • Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College (CN)
  • Tsinghua University (CN)
  • University of Auckland (NZ)
  • United Nations Children's Fund (US)
  • United Nations (US)
  • Burnet Institute (AU)
  • Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ES)
  • University College London (GB)
Corresponding author
Sachs, Jeffrey D
ORCID
Venue
The Lancet
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Published
2022-10
Volume
400
Issue
10359
Pages
1224-1280
ISSN
  • 0099-5355 (ISSN-L)
  • 0140-6736
DOI
10.1016/s0140-6736(22)01585-9
PMC
PMC9539542
OpenAlex
W4295747815
Semantic Scholar
ac5488c86b6f6040770a5c679a83b50e5aad7d41
Cited by
842
References
308
Citations by year
2026: 108 · 2025: 173 · 2024: 255 · 2023: 254 · 2022: 51
FWCI
19.59
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • The Lancet (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
  • UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
  • Technical University of Denmark, DTU Orbit (Technical University of Denmark, DTU) (submittedVersion)
  • ResearchSpace (University of Auckland) (submittedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Legal, Health, Environmental and COVID-19 Challenges
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Public Health Policies and Education
Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, international cooperation, multilateralism, global health governance, pandemic preparedness, health equity, low- and middle-income countries, vaccine equity, health data transparency, disinformation, biosafety regulation, global health financing, global health security, health system resilience
MeSH terms
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Humans, Pandemics

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